以下文章来源于一丰看金融 ，作者王一峰、赵晨阳 一、预计12月新增人民币贷款8000~10000亿左右，月末增速在6.3%~6.4% 一丰看金融 . 分享经济金融领域大事小情，路边新闻 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 3Q25以来，需求不足压制下信贷投放节奏趋缓，贷款增量读数持续同比少增。12月综合季节性特征、票据 利率走势等因素，预计新增贷款在0.8~1万亿左右，规模较去年同期略少，贷款增速落在6.3%附近。社融 层面，政府债发行进入尾声，对社融增长贡献度下降，年末信贷季节性放量、贷款核销加大等对社融读数 支撑作用显现，社融增速或落于8.3%一线。货币方面，年末财政开支强度加大对一般存款形成回补，M2 增速或稳中有增；春节错位叠加较高基数影响，M1增速预计 ...

hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 04 日 新增贷款或延续同比少增 ——2025 年 12 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 12 月新增贷款 7000 亿元，社融增量 1.8 万亿元；12 月末，M2 达 338.1 万亿，YoY+7.8%，M1（新口径） YoY +4.4%，社融增速 8.2%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 12 月新增贷款或同比少增。四季度银行信贷投放动力不强，叠加信贷需求较弱，新 增贷款或较低。我们预计 12 月新增贷款 7000 亿，同比少增；个贷-200 亿，对公 +6500 亿，非银同业贷款+500 亿。实体经济融资需求较弱，贷款利率管控可能促使 优质企业发债来偿还贷款，进一步减少信贷需求。近年房价下跌及 5 月份定期存款 利率下调可能提升按揭早偿压力；内需偏弱，消费信贷需求较弱。我们预计 12 月个 贷短期-500 亿，个贷中长期+30 ...

今年，11月末，银行理财规模站上34.0万亿元的历史高峰，较上年末增加4.0万亿元，也就是说银行理财 今年同比多增加了1万亿元，由此看，非银存款中大部分购买了银行理财，流向股市的并不多。 文/冉学东 根据央行公布的11月金融数据，11月M1增速4.9%，前值6.2%，M2增速回落至8.0%，前值8.2%，M1和 M2剪刀差进一步拉大。M1的增速为何在11月下降，未来是否还会回升呢？ 分析今年和去年同期我国金融机构存款结构数据发现，今年前11个月存款增加较多，比去年多增加5.4 万亿元，不过住户存款变化不大，主要是非金融企业存款增加较多，从去年的减少2.1万亿元，到今年 增加了2.04万亿元。 非金融企业存款增加较多的原因主要是，企业的财务状况大幅改善，应该是政府发债，各地以"专项债 +专项贷款"推进清偿拖欠企业账款，资金从财政流向被拖欠企业，先沉淀为单位活期存款直接抬升 M1。当然企业存款改善，还与去年叫停手工补息、导致企业存款大幅减少，基数太低有关。 从住户存款方面看，2023年前11月住户存款增加17.5595万亿元，去年前11月住户存款增加12.07万亿 元，今年前11月住户存款增加12.06万亿元。去 ...

研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 国债期货周报：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第二部分 相关数据追踪 12 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周部分月度宏观数据密集公布，整体有喜有忧。其中金融数据方面，新型政策性金融工具带动企业部门融资需求上升是 最大亮点，但基数抬升等因素共同作用下，M1增速则继续放缓。相较于基本面数据而言，市场关注点更多集中在重要会议的内容上 。周四公布的中央经济工作会议通稿内容未超预期。财政政策方面，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的表述降低了明 年财政在"量"上大幅加码的概率。而货币政策适度宽松的基调不变，且将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，明年政策利率调 降仍然可期。不过，周五上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall financial data in November remains on a downward trajectory, with net financing amounts decreasing for both government and household sectors, while corporate financing shows improvement, primarily driven by short-term needs [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government net financing was 1.20 trillion yuan, while household net financing was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors [3]. - Corporate sector financing expanded significantly, with net financing of 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year. This improvement is mainly attributed to short-term loans and on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet bill financing [3]. M1 and M2 Trends - The most significant marginal change is observed in M1, which has shown a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 in November was 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points from October, while M2's year-on-year growth rate was 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2][4]. - The month-on-month growth rate of M1 in November was 0.8%, marking the second-lowest level for the same month since 2020. Seasonal adjustments indicate that M1's month-on-month growth may even enter negative territory [4]. Sectoral Analysis - The financing demand from the household sector remains weak, while the corporate sector is experiencing expansion. The government sector's financing is primarily influenced by the overall fiscal strategy for 2025 [3]. - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, an increase of 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a concentrated release of corporate bond issuance following stabilization in the bond market [3].

报告导读： M1增速迅速滑落或受到高基数、财政放缓、居民抢购定期存款等多方面因素 的影响。往后看，我们认为M1仍有边际企稳的可能性，财政靠前发力、人民币升值趋势带 动的企业结汇潮是不容忽视的两大因素。 社融：直接融资贡献较多。 2025年11月社融存量增速降至7.7%（前值8.0%），新增社融2.49万亿元，同比多增1597亿元。政府债新增1.20万亿元，同比 少增1048亿元。贷款（社融口径）新增4053亿元，同比少增1163亿元，贷款余额同比下探到6.4%（前值6.5%）。企业债券新增4169亿元，同比多增 1788亿元，企业债同比高增或与2024年同期低基数、政策支持科创债市场高速发展有关。 信贷：私人贷款走弱，票据融资支撑。 11月信贷新增3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，企业和居民贷款均延续回落。一方面，消费品以旧换新补贴下发节奏 放缓，导致耐用消费品减弱进而带动居民短贷减少，此外地产价格动能对居民长贷仍有一定影响；另一方面，政策性金融工具落到项目上存在时滞，同时金融 机构与地方政府在年末有项目储备的需求与动机，导致企业信贷走弱。 货币：M1增速回落较快。11月M1增速4.9%（前值6.2%），M ...

Financial Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate remained at 8.5%, unchanged from October, but is expected to decline slightly by year-end[2] - The M2 growth rate in November was 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[2] - The net financing for the government sector in November was 1.20 trillion yuan, while the net financing for the household sector was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors[2] Corporate Financing - Corporate sector net financing in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing[2] - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, up 178.8 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a recovery in bond market sentiment[3] M1 Trends - The M1 growth rate has shown significant weakness, with a November year-on-year decline attributed to both high base effects and weaker month-on-month trends[3] - The month-on-month M1 growth rate for November was 0.8%, the second lowest level for the same month since 2020, with seasonal adjustments potentially indicating a negative growth[3] Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate market showed slight recovery with the real estate sentiment index rising to 95.1 from 94.9, although new home sales compared to 2019 saw a widening decline of 57.3%[4] - The net financing for real estate companies turned positive at 3.2 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in credit conditions for the sector[5]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 14 日 11 月金融数据点评 适度宽松的货币政策将在 2026 年延续 11 月新增社融高于万得一致预期，新增信贷、M2 增速和 M1 增速低于预期， 社融同比基本符合预期；实体经济融资需求依然偏弱，但财政支出可能已经 开始加力。 相关研究报告 《GDP 的顶梁柱》20251212 《 2025 年中央经济工作会议学习体会》 20251212 《分歧"变小"、压力变大》20251211 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，较去年同期多增 1597 亿元，较 10 月多增 1.67 万亿元，高于万得一致预期的 2.02 万亿元。11 月社融存量同比增长 8.5%， 较 10 月增速持平，基本持平于万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy financial tools and asset expansion resilience [6][23]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins due to a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, with structural risks anticipated to receive policy support [3][23]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks and state-owned banks with defensive value [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - In November 2025, social financing (社融) grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with a monthly increment of 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [10][9]. - The structure of social financing showed a decrease in RMB loans by 116.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak demand for credit [10][9]. - Government bonds decreased by 104.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate direct financing increased by 170.2 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 178.8 billion yuan [10][9]. Loan Trends - Total RMB loans grew by 6.4% year-on-year in November, with a total of 390 billion yuan in new loans, reflecting a decline in both household and corporate loans [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant drop, with short-term loans down by 178.8 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 290 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans increased by 281.9 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill discounting [14][13]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth fell to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, with the gap between M2 and M1 increasing to 3.1% [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 1.41 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year, with declines across all categories including household and non-bank deposits [20][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, while also considering state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for their defensive value [24][23].

——2025 年 11 月金融数据点评 本报告导读： M1 增速迅速滑落或受到高基数、财政放缓、居民抢购定期存款等多方面因素的影 响。往后看，我们认为 M1 仍有边际企稳的可能性，财政靠前发力、人民币升值趋 势带动的企业结汇潮是不容忽视的两大因素。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | M1 | 增速：能否企稳 | | [Table_Authors] | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 021-38038433 | | | ——2025 年 11 | 月金融数据点评 | | hanchaohui@gtht.com | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | | | | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | | | | 021-38674711 | | | | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | | | | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | | | | 021-23219820 | | | | | | liangzh ...