证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 28 日 社融增速或延续小幅下行 ——2026 年 2 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2026 年 2 月新增贷款 7500 亿元，社融增量 1.99 万亿元；2 月末，M2 达 349.2 万亿，YoY+8.9%，M1（新口径） YoY +5.0%，社融增速 8.1%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2 月新增贷款或同比少增，预计新增贷款 7500 亿。在 1 月份信贷大量投放后，2 月 信贷增量或较少。实体经济融资需求较弱，贷款利率管控可能促使优质企业发债来 偿还贷款，进一步减少信贷需求。近年房价下跌及定期存款利率与按揭贷款利率相 差较大可能提升按揭早偿压力；内需偏弱，消费信贷需求较弱，春节前部分企业发 放年终奖或使得居民偿还个贷。我们预计 2 月个贷短期-3000 亿，个贷中长期-1500 亿。我们预计 2 月对公短贷+3000 亿，对公中 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, consumer prices (CPI) remained stable year-on-year, while industrial producer prices (PPI) decreased by 2.6% [1][2] - Food prices fell by 1.5% in 2025, with pork prices shifting from a 7.7% increase to a 6.1% decrease, impacting CPI by approximately 0.08 percentage points [2] - Energy prices saw a significant decline of 3.3%, influenced by international oil price fluctuations, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by 7.2% and 7.8% respectively [2] Group 2 - The PPI showed a narrowing decline in the second half of 2025, with a decrease of only 1.9% by December, the smallest drop since September 2024 [3] - Factors contributing to the PPI's performance included improved domestic market competition and varying impacts from external factors, such as rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector and declining oil prices [3] - The low price environment remains a concern for the Chinese economy, affecting corporate revenues, profits, and government finances [3] Group 3 - For 2026, macroeconomic indicators suggest a potential recovery in both CPI and PPI, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and addressing supply-side issues [4][5] - The financial outlook for 2026 anticipates CPI to rise by approximately 0.8%, with PPI expected to turn positive around the second quarter [6][5] - Structural characteristics of the PPI recovery will depend on demand strength and the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Group 1: Core Insights - The social financing growth rate in January is 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month, indicating overall stability in financing conditions [3][6] - New social financing reached 7.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.4 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [6][9] - The monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in the first half of the year [4][5] Group 2: Financial Data Characteristics - The credit growth rate has slowed, with the year-on-year growth of credit balance at 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][12] - M2 and M1 growth rates have both increased, with M2 at 9.0% and M1 at 4.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two [4][15] - Government bond net financing increased by 976.4 billion yuan, supporting social financing growth [9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Structure - The structure of financing shows a shift, with government bonds and bills providing support while on-balance sheet credit and direct financing are still adjusting [3][8] - New loans in January amounted to 4.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 320 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weaker credit expansion [12] - Short-term loans for residents increased significantly, while medium- and long-term loans faced pressure, indicating a cautious approach to long-term borrowing [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Forecasts for January 2026: 4.9 trillion yuan in new loans, 7.07 trillion yuan in social financing increment; at the end of January, M2 reaches 345.1 trillion yuan with a YoY increase of 8.3%, new - caliber M1 YoY increase of 3.7%, and social financing growth rate of 8.1% [2] - New loans in January may be close to the same period last year, but the new loans in 2026 may still increase less year - on - year due to weak credit demand and non - negligible credit risks [3] - M1 growth rate may decline in January, and M2 growth rate may also decline slightly [3] - Social financing increment in January may be close to the same period last year, and the growth rate may decline slightly. The social financing growth rate may continue to decline in the next few months, and is expected to drop to around 7.5% by the end of 2026. The predicted social financing increment for 2026 is about 35 trillion yuan [3] - Long - term bonds may continue a small - scale rebound in February, and the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond may return to around 2.2%. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - It is expected that new loans in January will be 4.9 trillion yuan, with individual loans increasing by 450 billion yuan, corporate loans increasing by 4.5 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans decreasing by 50 billion yuan [3] - Among individual loans, short - term loans are expected to increase by 50 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans are expected to increase by 400 billion yuan. Among corporate loans, short - term loans are expected to increase by 1.6 trillion yuan, medium - and long - term loans are expected to increase by 3.3 trillion yuan, and bill financing is expected to decrease by 400 billion yuan [3] M1 and M2 - The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of January is expected to be 3.7%, with a slight month - on - month decrease. The M2 growth rate at the end of January is expected to be 8.3%, with a slight month - on - month decline [3] Social Financing - The social financing increment in January is predicted to be 7.07 trillion yuan, close to the 7.05 trillion yuan in January 2025. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy is expected to be 4.95 trillion yuan, undiscounted bank acceptance bills to increase by 30 billion yuan, net corporate bond financing to be 50 billion yuan, and net government bond financing to be 110 billion yuan [3] - The social financing growth rate is expected to drop to 8.1% at the end of January, and may continue to decline in the next few months, reaching around 7.5% by the end of 2026. The predicted social financing increment for 2026 is about 35 trillion yuan [3] Bond Market - From November 20, 2025, to the end of January 2026, securities firms' proprietary trading, funds, and annuities significantly reduced their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, with a net sale of 349.8 billion yuan in total. Long - term bonds may continue to rebound in February, and the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond may return to around 2.2%. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026 [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the financial market trends in China, particularly focusing on the credit demand, social financing, and government bond market for the year 2026. [1][2][3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Weak Credit Demand**: Overall credit demand in China is weak, influenced by manufacturing overcapacity and the impact of local government debt on financing needs. [3][6] - **Loan Structure**: In December 2025, new loans amounted to 910 billion yuan, with a significant portion being short-term corporate loans and bill discounts, indicating banks' aggressive lending strategies at the end of the quarter. [2][4] - **Personal Loans Decline**: Personal loans have been in continuous negative growth since August 2025, reflecting low consumer credit demand despite a strong stock market performance. This trend is expected to persist into 2026. [2][3] - **Social Financing Trends**: Social financing growth is projected to decrease, with an expected total of approximately 3.5 trillion yuan for 2026, slightly lower than the previous year. [6][9] - **Government Bond Issuance**: The issuance of government bonds is expected to increase, with a stable credit growth forecast for 2026, as the issuance schedule is front-loaded. [9][19] Important but Overlooked Content - **M1 Growth Rate**: The M1 growth rate fell to 3.8% by the end of 2025, with expectations of maintaining around 3% in the second half of 2026. [5] - **Insurance Sector Impact**: The nearing conclusion of a 6 trillion yuan special bond debt plan may improve the supply of long-term bonds, which is crucial for the investment strategies of the insurance sector. [7][8] - **Bank Wealth Management Trends**: Bank wealth management products are expected to see significant growth in the second and third quarters of 2026, while the first quarter typically shows a decline due to banks focusing on loan growth. [11][12] - **Long-term Bond Demand**: There is a notable increase in demand for long-term government bonds from rural commercial banks due to a decrease in their funding costs, with expectations of a significant rise in their holdings of 15 to 30-year bonds. [17] - **Stock Market Regulation**: The regulatory body is actively preventing excessive volatility in the stock market, with recent actions indicating a desire to control overheating in the market. [18] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to consider investing in secondary capital bonds or perpetual bonds for yield, while also exploring opportunities in 30-year government bonds for potential price movements. [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a favorable outlook for returns relative to the market benchmark [6][24]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to return to a fundamental narrative in 2026, supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion. The sector is currently in a deposit repricing cycle, which is likely to stabilize net interest margins. Structural risks are anticipated to receive policy support [3][24]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with confirmed fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) 2. State-owned large banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, including Bank of Communications (601328, Not Rated) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) [3][25]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In December 2025, social financing grew by 8.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The total social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, which was 646.2 billion yuan less than the previous year. The structure showed that corporate loans increased by 140.2 billion yuan, while government bonds decreased significantly by 1.0733 trillion yuan [9][10]. - The report notes that retail demand remains weak, while corporate loans increased by 580 billion yuan, driven by local government debt limits allocated for project construction [13][14]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in December 2025, while M2 grew by 8.5%. The difference in growth rates between M2 and M1 increased to 4.7 percentage points [21][22]. - New RMB deposits in December amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08 trillion yuan, primarily due to a rise in household deposits [21][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for absolute returns in the banking sector in 2026, with a focus on quality small and medium-sized banks and stable large state-owned banks as key investment targets [24][25].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In December, corporate credit experienced a seasonal growth, with expectations that the credit issuance in Q1 2026 may reach the highest level in history [4] - The report highlights that while the year-end credit issuance slowed down, the impact of debt reduction policies has weakened, allowing for stable credit growth [4] - The report indicates that the demand for corporate loans has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8 trillion yuan in December, although the overall demand still requires further observation [4] - The report notes that the new issuance rates for corporate and personal housing loans have stabilized at 3.10%, reflecting a shift in bank lending strategies [5][6] Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - December saw a new issuance of 910 billion yuan in RMB loans, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 6.4% [4] - The corporate loan structure improved, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans increasing by 3.9 trillion yuan and 2.9 trillion yuan respectively [4] - The report emphasizes that the overall credit demand from residents remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 441.6 billion yuan in December [4] Social Financing and Government Bonds - In December, social financing increased by 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.3% [5] - The slowdown in government bond issuance has been identified as a drag on social financing, with new government bonds issued at 683.3 billion yuan, one of the lowest levels of the year [5] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth in December was 8.5%, while M1 growth fell to 3.8% [6] - The report notes that the increase in fiscal deposits may indicate a weaker year-end fiscal spending compared to the previous year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that banks with strong wealth management businesses and active financial environments in key regions will benefit from the stable growth policies [7] - Recommended banks include CITIC Bank, with beneficiaries including Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and others [7]

Group 1 - The monetary policy in 2025 is expected to be moderately loose, with lower rates of cuts compared to 2023-2024, primarily focused in the second quarter due to external shocks and a combination of resilient exports, proactive fiscal policy, and industrial highlights enhancing growth resilience [1][11][12] - Structural tools have formed a framework to support key areas such as consumption and real estate, with a focus on optimization in 2026, including streamlining the number of tools and expanding counterparties to include non-bank institutions [15][16] - The policy framework is shifting towards interest rate regulation, with a focus on narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor, which currently has a width exceeding 200 basis points [2][18][19] Group 2 - Narrowing the interest rate corridor is expected to stabilize liquidity expectations and reduce short-term interest rate volatility, which is crucial for improving the interest rate transmission mechanism [20][21] - The narrow liquidity in 2025 is projected to gradually loosen after the first quarter, with potential tightening risks due to credit exceeding acceptable levels and unexpected exchange rate fluctuations [23][24] - The systemic convergence of narrow liquidity fluctuations since 2016 is attributed to increased exchange rate marketization and changes in intermediary targets, leading to a more stable monetary supply [26][27] Group 3 - In 2025, the growth of M1 is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points, driven mainly by fiscal expansion and overseas net income, although the micro-level activation of funds remains limited [32][33] - The growth of M2 is projected to rise by 0.7 percentage points in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion and a decrease in bond issuance, but may slow down in 2026 due to uncertainties in the banking sector [42][43] - The total amount of remaining liquidity is expected to increase by approximately 0.7 trillion yuan in 2025, primarily flowing into private equity funds and fixed-income assets, but significant expansion in 2026 is unlikely [45][48][49]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the state of social financing and credit in December, highlighting trends in corporate and household loans, as well as deposit movements in the banking sector [1][2][3][4]. Key Points on Social Financing and Credit - In December, corporate loans increased by 580 billion year-on-year, driven by policy financial tools, a low base from the previous year, and year-end lending boosts from banks [1][2]. - However, household loans decreased for the third consecutive month, with a reduction exceeding 400 billion, indicating weak demand and a contraction in leverage [3]. - The overall social financing growth rate was 8.3%, with loan growth at 6.3%, both showing slight month-on-month declines [2]. - Corporate medium to long-term loans saw a significant year-on-year increase of 390 billion, attributed to policy support and the low base effect from December of the previous year [2]. Insights on Household Loans - The decline in household loans includes a net decrease of 1,000 billion in short-term loans and a 2,900 billion decrease in medium to long-term loans [3]. - The expectation is for M1 growth to gradually recover in January 2026, potentially rising from 3.8% to a range of 4-5% due to low base effects and increased market activity [3][8]. Deposit Trends - December saw a rise in deposit growth from 7.7% to 8.8%, with no significant outflow of household deposits [5]. - M1 growth decreased to 3.8%, indicating that while the market is active, there is no significant change in household risk appetite [5]. - Corporate deposits decreased by 600 billion year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.8 trillion, influenced by a self-discipline agreement on demand deposits [7]. Future Market Expectations - The outlook for January and beyond suggests that banks remain active in lending, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, but retail demand may continue to lag [4]. - There is a need to monitor the impact of structural monetary policy tools and interest rate adjustments on credit growth throughout the year [11]. Central Bank Policies - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates, aimed at alleviating pressure on bank interest margins [9][10]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to expand, supporting financing for private enterprises, which may help alleviate financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises [10]. - A comprehensive interest rate cut is anticipated between the end of Q1 and Q2, with an expected annual reduction of 10-20 basis points [10]. Additional Observations - Despite approximately 6 trillion in excess savings, the potential for large-scale market entry remains uncertain and will depend on market wealth effects and policy guidance [6]. - The current phase of household funds entering the market is still in its early stages, requiring ongoing observation of market dynamics [6].