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宁证期货今日早评-20251010
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:59
Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers short - term evaluations for various commodities including glass, gold, iron ore, etc., analyzing their supply - demand situations, price trends, and providing trading suggestions [1][3]. Summary by Commodity Glass - National float glass average price is 1260 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day;开工率 is 76.01%, unchanged weekly; total inventory of sample enterprises is 62.824 million heavy boxes, up 5.84% [1]. - Terminal demand is rising, but downstream orders are weak, inventory is increasing. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1215. Suggestion: wait and see or short - term long on dips [1]. Gold - There are differences within the Fed on further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on precious metals. Gold is expected to oscillate with a downward bias in the short - term [1]. Iron Ore - From September 29 to October 5, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7758 million tons, up 172,100 tons; 45 - port arrivals were 2.6087 million tons, up 248,200 tons; northern six - port arrivals were 1.4516 million tons, up 450,200 tons [3]. - The probability of actual negative feedback in the short - term is low, but there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 81.9%, down 4.6% week - on - week. After - holiday market sentiment has improved, and short - term range operation is recommended [3]. Rebar - As of the week of October 8, rebar production was 203,400 tons, down 1.75%; factory inventory was 192,340 tons, up 21.04%; social inventory was 467,300 tons, up 5.4%; apparent demand was 146,010 tons, down 39.43% [4]. - Steel demand has declined due to the holiday, and inventory has increased. Short - term steel prices are expected to adjust slightly, and short - term range operation is recommended [4]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2213 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with support at 2250. Suggestion: wait and see until the decline stabilizes [5]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4640 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 4840. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds [6][7]. Live Pigs - On October 9, the national average pork price in wholesale markets was 18.64 yuan/kg, down 3.5% from before the holiday. Spot prices are expected to remain low for some time, and futures prices may continue to decline in the short - term [7]. Palm Oil - Holiday - period positive news from palm oil producing areas supports price increases. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the September supply - demand data from MPOB [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC production increased in September, and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has eased. Short - term short - selling is recommended [9]. Soybeans - In the 40th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7557 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.01%. Domestic soybean prices are under pressure due to increased supply. Attention should be paid to policies and new grain listings [10]. Rubber - 9 - 10 months are the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asia. Supply is expected to be loose, demand growth is limited, but low inventory supports prices. Short - term low - level trial long is recommended [11]. PTA - In October, there are maintenance plans for some PTA plants, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Silver - The US government shutdown continues, and the US dollar index has rebounded. Silver is expected to oscillate with a downward bias in the short - term, but is bullish in the long - term [13]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The economic fundamentals are bearish for the bond market in the long - term. Bond market operation is difficult, and an oscillatory mindset should be adopted [13].