Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin prices, from approximately $125,000 to around $84,000, is attributed to a complex interplay of factors beyond just a typical market correction, including macroeconomic conditions and significant changes in the cryptocurrency ecosystem driven by companies like Strategy Inc. [2][4] Group 1: Bitcoin Price Movement - Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately $125,000 on October 6, 2025, before experiencing a decline to about $84,000 by late November, marking a maximum drawdown of nearly 30% [2][4] - The decline is characterized as a typical "high position correction," influenced by cooling interest rate expectations, overall risk asset declines, and a shift from net inflows to net outflows in ETF investments [4][30] Group 2: Strategy Inc. and Its Bitcoin Holdings - Strategy Inc., formerly known as MicroStrategy, has transformed from a software company into a significant holder of Bitcoin, with a total of 649,870 Bitcoins acquired at a total cost of approximately $48.37 billion, averaging $74,433 per Bitcoin [5][8] - The current estimated market value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings is between $54 billion and $56 billion, representing about 3% of the global Bitcoin supply [8] - Bitcoin constitutes approximately 75% to 80% of Strategy's total assets, indicating a shift towards being a Bitcoin treasury rather than a software company [8][12] Group 3: MSCI's Impact on Strategy Inc. - MSCI has initiated a consultation regarding how to classify companies with significant digital asset holdings, suggesting that companies with over 50% of their total assets in digital assets should be treated as investment funds rather than operating companies [16][22] - The consultation period ends on December 31, 2025, with a decision expected to take effect on January 15, 2026, potentially leading to the exclusion of such companies from mainstream stock indices [17][20] - If Strategy is removed from major indices, passive funds tracking MSCI could be forced to sell approximately $2.8 billion worth of Strategy stock, with total potential sell pressure reaching around $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit [23][24] Group 4: Market Reactions and Valuation Changes - Following MSCI's announcement, the market has begun to react, with Strategy's market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio dropping from a peak of 2.5 to approximately 1.1, indicating a significant reduction in the premium investors are willing to pay [29][30] - The decline in mNAV suggests that the previous cycle of using high premiums to issue new shares for Bitcoin purchases has been disrupted, leading to a more traditional and costly approach to financing [29][30]

以下文章来源于capitalwatch ，作者宏观分析师 capitalwatch . 我们是一个聚焦全球资本市场的高影响力财经账号。 内容由华尔街交易员与研究员共同撰写，提供市场深度解读、机构级逻辑与实时判断。 这里没有喊 单，没有套路，只有用数据和常识说话的分析。 我们希望把复杂的金融世界，讲给真正关心自己资产的人听。 来源 | capitalwatch 比特币这轮下跌，很多人口头上一句"从 12 万砸到 8 万多"，就把事情简单归结为 "正常回调""加密又崩了 "。 可如果你把图放大，会发现这次的故事，比 "涨多了要跌" 复杂得多。 2025 年 10 月 6 日，比特币在多家交易平台上创下约 12.5 万–12.6 万美元的历史新高，随后一路震荡走弱。 截至 11 月下旬，比特币价格已经滑落到大约 8.4 万美元附近，最大回撤接近三成。 比特币自历史高点以来的回撤 表面上看，这是典型的"高位回调"： 利率预期降温、风险资产整体补跌、ETF 资金从净流入转为净流出，一切都很合理。 但在这些宏观理由之外，还有一个非常冷冰冰的角色，在悄悄改变比特币的生态 指数规则 更具体一点： MSCI 正在推动一条只有一 ...