摩根大通近日发布的报告认为，当前市场对2025年第四季度中国企业盈利增长的预期偏低，后续存在显著的向上修复空间。 据追风交易台，报告指出财报披露仍处早期阶段。截至2月10日，MSCI中国指数仅3%市值、沪深300指数仅10%市值的成分股已发布4Q25业绩。 从前三季度表现看，MSCI中国EPS同比增长8%，据此倒推的四季度隐含增速为-8%，而全年市场共识预期为+2%，意味着只要四季度实际业绩优 于这一偏低基数，便存在充裕的超预期空间。沪深300方面，三季度EPS同比增长11%，推动前三季度累计增速达9%，为全年业绩奠定稳健基础。 | Sector | 1Q2025 (A) v- | 2Q2025 (A) | 3Q2025 (A) | 4Q2025 (E) | | 9M2025 (A) v- | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | y-y | V-Y | y-y | q-q delta | | 2025 (E) y-y | 2026 (E) y-y | | Index | 7% | -1% | 8% | -8% | ...

Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]