重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 美豆偏强带动，豆粕冲高回落 （豆粕周报2.24-2.27） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期正常 | 偏空 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期良 | | | | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回升，中国采购美 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 豆和南美大豆丰产交互影响 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回落，油厂压 | 偏多 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 榨量维持低位 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-03-02 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2800至2860区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美国生物燃料政策利多豆油带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏 强震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡 回落，美豆走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持区间震荡格 局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差187，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存84.25万吨，上周83.94万吨，环比增加0.37%，去年同期49.88万吨， 同比增加68.91%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2780至2840区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，巴西大豆收割进程偏慢和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期维持震荡等 待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回 升，美豆走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持区间震荡格局。 中性 2.基差：现货3050（华东），基差269，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日 ...

特朗普一怒之下宣布对全球加征15%的关税，全球的目光都集中在中国的反应上。几天前，美国最高法院发布裁决，宣布对等关税违宪，愤怒的 特朗普立即签署行政令，依据新法律条款决定征收10%的进口关税，随后又将税率上调至15%。与此同时，美国贸易代表格里尔放出了风声，强 调此前与中国、欧盟等贸易伙伴达成的协议依然有效，并表示美国会履行承诺，希望其他伙伴也能如此。 从大局来看，当美国关税政策的不确定性加大时，它实际上更需要中国在执行层面提供确定性，以减少政策波动所带来的冲击。说实话，这对中 美双方来说都是双赢的选择。中国也希望中美休战安排能继续维持下去，而不是被美国内部的法律争议打乱节奏。因此，中国商务部的最新回应 显得格外谨慎，首先重申了中国一贯的立场，然后表示正在全面评估相关裁决，关注美国政府为维持关税政策可能采取的替代措施，表示将密切 保持关注。此时，问题的核心并不在于中国是否会像美国那样履行承诺，而是美国在此时的喊话背后暗藏着更深的底层逻辑——美国试图通过将 协议作为谈判的有效资产来维护，但中国始终反对任何形式的单边加征关税。 从根本上讲，对等关税或芬太尼关税等政策，都不符合中美双方的利益诉求。中国不仅仅满足于休 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, spot price premium, and a mix of news, it may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. The market is affected by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American weather [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4620 and 4740. Supported by the upward movement of US soybeans and strong domestic spot prices and demand, but restricted by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans after the Spring Festival, there is a risk of a pull - back after a rise [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - There is no specific content for daily hints in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic hog farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained strong in January, supporting the price of soybean meal. Affected by the upward trend of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation on US soybean产区 weather, and influenced by the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, awaiting the clarification of US soybean production and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From February 4th to 12th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3151 yuan, and the transaction volume decreased from 26.17 million tons to 1.3 million tons. The transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 3 million tons on February 6th. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widened from 667 yuan to 701 yuan [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From February 5th to 12th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend, and the spot prices also had corresponding changes [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From February 3rd to 12th, the number of bean 1 warehouse receipts remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease on February 6th; the number of bean 2 warehouse receipts appeared on February 5th and then decreased; the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased on February 4th and then remained relatively stable [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, reflecting the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), showing the development of soybean production in different regions [34][39][42]. - **USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026 [44]. 3.5 Positioning Data - There is no specific content for positioning data in the report. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - **Soybean Meal Market**: Soybean meal futures have returned to an oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has shown slight fluctuations [23][25][27][29]. - **Imported Soybean and Hog Market**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year and has recently decreased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated downward following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has shown slight fluctuations. The hog inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month. The hog price has shown slight fluctuations recently, while the piglet price has slightly rebounded. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has continued to rise. Domestic hog farming has achieved a small profit, and the pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [45][47][54][56][62][64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-11 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美农报数据变化不大和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期维持区间震荡 等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡 回升，美豆走势带动和年底需求进入旺季现货价格升水支撑盘面底部，消息面多空交织 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差286，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2700至2760区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，巴西大豆收割推进和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期维持区间震荡等 待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回 落，美豆走势带动和年底需求进入旺季现货价格升水支撑盘面底部，消息面多空交织短 期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差291，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中国继续采购美豆，豆粕外强内弱 （豆粕周报2.2-2.6） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期正常 | 偏空 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期良 | | | | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回升，中国采购美 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 豆和南美大豆丰产交互影响 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回落，油厂压 | 偏空 | 需求短期良好，油厂开机预 | | | 榨量回归高位 | ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-06 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美国称中国将采购更多大豆和技术性买盘支撑，美豆短期维持区 间震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆 粕探底回升，美豆走势带动和年底需求进入旺季现货价格升水支撑盘面底部，消息面多 空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差289，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2710至2770区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆探底回升，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期维持震荡等待中美贸 易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 走势带动和年底需求进入旺季现货价格升水支撑盘面底部，消息面多空交织短期或维持 震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差293，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力空单减 ...