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宝城期货股指期货早报-20250828
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall view is upward. Although the stock market had a technical adjustment yesterday due to profit - taking of some funds, the previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market. However, as the stock index has risen continuously, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2509**: Short - term (within a week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is upward, intraday is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IF, IH, IC, IM**: Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3197.8 billion yuan, an increase of 488 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The afternoon decline was due to the profit - taking of some stocks that had risen significantly. The previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the gentle recovery of price indexes, and drive a positive cycle. The capital market has loose liquidity, and the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market has increased. However, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].
股市成交放量,股指大幅上涨
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:09
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 22, 2025, all stock indices rose significantly, with gains exceeding 2%. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2,578.8 billion yuan, an increase of 87.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the stock market has been greater than 2 trillion yuan for multiple consecutive days, indicating that investors' sentiment is positive and optimistic. With the entry of incremental funds, the valuation of the stock indices continues to recover. The positive policy expectations currently have a strong supporting effect on the stock indices. The anti - involution policy and the consumption - promotion policy promote the optimization of the supply - demand structure from the supply and demand sides respectively, promote a moderate recovery of the price index, improve corporate profits, and drive a positive cycle of "consumption recovery - improvement of corporate revenue - increase in employee salaries - rise in residents' consumption confidence". From the perspective of capital, the current capital situation is loose, and the yield of fixed - income assets is low. There is a strong demand for wealth management funds to transfer to high - yield assets, which will bring continuous incremental funds to the stock market. The significant year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July reflects this trend. In general, the risk preference of the stock market is positive and optimistic in the short term, and the stock indices will fluctuate strongly. Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish view [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On August 22, 2025, the 50ETF rose 2.54% to close at 3.066; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.31% to close at 4.479; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.30% to close at 4.619; the CSI 300 Index rose 2.10% to close at 4378.00; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.51% to close at 7362.94; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.90% to close at 6.915; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.84% to close at 2.762; the GEM ETF rose 3.50% to close at 2.662; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 2.69% to close at 3.208; the SSE 50 Index rose 2.32% to close at 2928.61; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 9.52% to close at 1.32; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 9.75% to close at 1.30 [5] - The trading volume PCR and持仓量 PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 63.81 (72.68 the previous day), and the 持仓量 PCR was 119.44 (105.64 the previous day) [6] - The implied volatility of the September 2025 at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the September 2025 at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options was 15.32%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 9.08% [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [9] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [22] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [35] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [47] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [60] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [73] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [86] - **GEM ETF Options**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [100] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [113] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [126] - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [139] - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, 持仓量 PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [146]