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市场主流观点汇总-20250701
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 11:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].
伊以冲突最新进展:“停火”达成却未停火?多方回应来了!
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-06-24 05:46
中新网6月24日电据路透社援引伊朗方面消息,当地时间6月23日,伊朗已接受美国提出的与以色列停火 方案。当日早些时候,美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台发文表示,以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。 然而协议达成后,该地区仍持续出现袭击事件,使所谓"停火"的实际效力受到质疑。 另据《以色列时报》最新报道,当地时间24日凌晨,伊朗外交部长阿拉格奇表示,"截至目前,没有任 何关于停火或军事行动停止的'协议'。" 报道称,阿拉格奇此番评论,是伊朗对特朗普此前声称的伊朗与以色列之间停火的首次官方回应。 阿拉格奇表示,如果以色列在当地时间24日前凌晨4点前停止空袭,德黑兰将停止其攻击行为,同时还 补充道,"关于停止我们军事行动的最终决定,将在稍后做出。" 多方披露"停火"细节 特朗普23日在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示,以色列和伊朗以就"全面彻底停火"达成一致。 特朗普在美国东部时间当天18时02分(北京时间24日6时02分)发表的帖文中说,停火将在大约6小时后正 式生效,届时以伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。 他说,根据协议,停火将分阶段实施:伊朗先开始停火,到第12个小时的时候,以色列也开始停火,到 第24个小时 ...
法国总统马克龙:仅靠严厉军事打击无法实现伊以停火
news flash· 2025-06-22 19:33
Core Viewpoint - French President Macron emphasizes that strict military retaliation alone cannot achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, advocating for restraint from all parties involved [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Military and Defense - Macron calls for restraint from all parties, indicating that severe military responses will not yield the desired outcomes [1] International Relations - The meeting held at the Élysée Palace focused on national defense and security, highlighting the importance of diplomatic efforts in conflict resolution [1]
整理:特朗普过去24小时都忙了什么?(2025-06-17)
news flash· 2025-06-17 11:26
Group 1 - Trump shortens G7 summit trip to return to Washington for important matters, stating it is unrelated to the Israel-Iran ceasefire [1] - The U.S. will delay sanctions against Russia in hopes of reaching an agreement [1] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. has been finalized, with Lutnik deciding on steel and aluminum tariff exemptions [1] Group 2 - Trump expresses hope for a complete resolution of Iran's nuclear issue, aiming for Iran to fully abandon nuclear weapons [2] - Trump denies any intention to negotiate peace talks with Iran, labeling related information as fake news [2] - Upcoming drug tariffs are anticipated as announced by Trump [2] Group 3 - Trump indicates a potential separate agreement with Canada regarding the Iron Dome project, with Canada expected to cover costs [2] - Negotiations with Japan on tariffs remain unresolved, with Japan's stance described as "hard" [2] - The Trump Organization launches the T1 smartphone, priced at $499, expected to be released in September, claiming it will be "Made in America" [2] Group 4 - The Environmental Protection Agency under Trump is directing staff to cease regulation of the oil and gas industry [3]