Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Core Points - Iran has accepted the US-proposed ceasefire plan with Israel, but the effectiveness of this ceasefire is questioned due to ongoing attacks in the region [1][5] - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that there is no official agreement on a ceasefire or cessation of military actions, indicating that Iran will stop its attacks only if Israel halts airstrikes by a specified deadline [1][7] - The ceasefire is planned to be implemented in phases, with Iran starting first, followed by Israel, leading to the end of the conflict after 12 days of warfare [2][3] Group 1 - The ceasefire announcement was made by President Trump, who claimed that both Israel and Iran agreed to a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire" [1][3] - The ceasefire is set to take effect approximately six hours after Trump's announcement, allowing both sides to complete their "final tasks" [1][2] - Israeli officials have indicated that they are close to achieving their military objectives but may still choose to escalate the conflict if necessary [3][4] Group 2 - Following the ceasefire announcement, there were reports of drone and rocket attacks on US military bases in Iraq, indicating ongoing hostilities despite the ceasefire claims [5][6] - Iranian media reported that Iran retaliated against US strikes on its nuclear facilities by attacking US bases in Qatar and Iraq, further escalating tensions in the region [6][7] - The Iranian parliament's advisor described Trump's ceasefire declaration as a provocation, suggesting skepticism about the ceasefire's legitimacy [7]

Core Viewpoint - French President Macron emphasizes that strict military retaliation alone cannot achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, advocating for restraint from all parties involved [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Military and Defense - Macron calls for restraint from all parties, indicating that severe military responses will not yield the desired outcomes [1] International Relations - The meeting held at the Élysée Palace focused on national defense and security, highlighting the importance of diplomatic efforts in conflict resolution [1]

Group 1 - Trump shortens G7 summit trip to return to Washington for important matters, stating it is unrelated to the Israel-Iran ceasefire [1] - The U.S. will delay sanctions against Russia in hopes of reaching an agreement [1] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. has been finalized, with Lutnik deciding on steel and aluminum tariff exemptions [1] Group 2 - Trump expresses hope for a complete resolution of Iran's nuclear issue, aiming for Iran to fully abandon nuclear weapons [2] - Trump denies any intention to negotiate peace talks with Iran, labeling related information as fake news [2] - Upcoming drug tariffs are anticipated as announced by Trump [2] Group 3 - Trump indicates a potential separate agreement with Canada regarding the Iron Dome project, with Canada expected to cover costs [2] - Negotiations with Japan on tariffs remain unresolved, with Japan's stance described as "hard" [2] - The Trump Organization launches the T1 smartphone, priced at $499, expected to be released in September, claiming it will be "Made in America" [2] Group 4 - The Environmental Protection Agency under Trump is directing staff to cease regulation of the oil and gas industry [3]