债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 赎回潮叙事中的机构行为图鉴 ——央行报表及债券托管量观察 ❖ 2025 年 7 月，中债登和上清所债券托管总量为 173 万亿，同比增速上行 0.1pct 至 15.8%的水平，环比增量从 2025 年 6 月的 1.3 万亿上行至 1.7 万亿。 ❖ 一、7 月央行资产负债表和托管量解读？ 1、7 月央行资产负债表：规模上行至 45.9 万亿元。（1）从资产端来看，央行 "对其他存款性公司债权"与公开投放规模差异不大，流动性呵护相对积极， 开年以来 PSL 余额快速减少，关注新型政策性金融工具启用；持仓短国债陆 续到期，"对中央政府债权"科目延续缩量。（2）从负债端来看，缴税大月叠 加供给放量，政府存款增量上行至季节性高位，由于银行体系资金流向财政存 款，央行"其他存款性公司存款"季节性回落。 2、7 月央行托管量：买断式逆回购净投放规模维持在 2000 亿，前期国债买入 操作到期 647 亿元，央行创新工具净投放规模合计为 1353 亿元，中债-其他科 目单月增量为 1641 亿，两者较为接近。 ❖ 二、杠杆率：跨季后资金面转松，机构杠杆季节性回落 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is viewed as a stable asset and a safe haven, especially during periods of economic uncertainty, with its market influenced by global economic changes, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Global Economic Uncertainty - Increasing global economic uncertainty has led to a rise in demand for gold as a safe haven, particularly during signs of financial crises or economic recessions [3]. - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions between the US and Europe, significantly affect gold price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of the Gold Market - Technical analysis reveals patterns in gold price movements, identifying key support and resistance levels that influence market behavior [4]. - Indicators such as trend lines and moving averages are essential tools for investors to assess overall market trends and short-term trading opportunities [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies and Gold Market - Central bank monetary policies, especially decisions by major banks like the Federal Reserve, directly impact the attractiveness of gold as an investment [7]. - Changes in central bank gold reserves reflect confidence in gold, with purchases by central banks potentially driving short-term price increases [7]. Group 4: Investment Decision-Making in Gold Market - Investors should adjust their strategies based on market trends, considering the implications of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on gold prices [8]. - The volatility of gold prices necessitates that investors tailor their investment plans according to their risk tolerance [8]. Group 5: Investment Methods in Gold - Various investment options in gold include physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold futures, each with distinct risk and return characteristics [10]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor multiple influencing factors and adapt their strategies accordingly to capitalize on investment opportunities in the gold market [10].

证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.07.27 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《美国消费仍具韧性——全球经济观察 第 4 期》 2025-07-19 2. 《美国低招聘、低裁员——全球经济观察 第 3 期》 2025-07-12 3. 《国债收益率普遍上行——全球经济观 察第 2 期》 2025-07-05 4. 《美国降息预期升温——全球经济观察 第 1 期》 2025-06-28 核心观点 ❖ 全球资产价格：日经领涨全球股市。股市方面，本周全球主要股市多数上 涨，受日美达成贸易关税协议提振，日经 225 较上周上涨 4.1%，领涨全球 股市。美股三大指数均有所上涨。债市方面，本周主要国债收益率涨跌互现， 10 年期美债收益率较上周下行 4bp。商品方面，本周油价有所走低，主因欧 美贸易协议谈判僵持，引发原油需求前景担忧。汇率方面，美元指数回落 0.8%。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 美国投资或转弱 ——全球经济观察第 5 期 ❖ 主要央行货币政策：欧央行保持利率不变。美联储 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: Macro Research focusing on tariffs, central bank policies, and housing market outlook in the US Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impacts**: - The US has announced a 15% tariff on Japan and a 19% tariff on the Philippines and Indonesia, indicating a trend of increasing tariffs. The effective US tariff rate is expected to rise by a total of 17 percentage points (pp) by 2027 [1] - This increase in tariffs is estimated to boost US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by approximately 1.7% cumulatively over the next few years, leading to revised core PCE inflation forecasts of 3.3%/2.7%/2.4% year-over-year (yoy) for December 2025/2026/2027, compared to previous forecasts of 3.4%/2.6%/2.0% [1][1] - Higher tariffs are projected to lower GDP growth by around 1pp/0.4pp/0.3pp yoy over the next three years, as a smaller trade deficit offsets the growth drag from reduced consumption and investment [1] 2. **Central Bank Policies**: - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain unchanged rates and limited shifts in communication, with a potential last rate cut to 1.75% in September [6] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to cut rates in September, with two additional 25 basis point cuts later this year and next year, leading to a terminal rate of 3-3.25% [7] - The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates at its next meeting due to cumulative disinflation progress in the UK [8] 3. **US Housing Market Outlook**: - The US housing market is facing challenges with a weak spring selling season and rising mortgage rates, leading to expectations of weak residential investment growth for the remainder of the year [12] - National home prices are forecasted to rise only 0.2% this year and 0.8% next year (December-over-December) [12] 4. **US Immigration Trends**: - US net immigration is estimated to have declined from an annualized pace of 0.6 million in April to 0.5 million in June, stabilizing at around 0.5 million annually, down from the pre-pandemic trend of 1.0 million [12] - This slowdown in immigration is expected to lower the breakeven rate of payroll job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable to 70,000 per month by the end of 2025, down from an estimated 90,000 currently [12] 5. **Japanese Political Landscape**: - Following recent Upper House elections, the ruling coalition in Japan has lost its majority, leading to expectations of a minority government that will require cooperation with opposition parties for legislative passage [12] - The focus of opposition parties on proposals to cut consumption taxes and increase social security measures suggests an expansionary bias in fiscal policy ahead [12] Additional Important Content - The macroeconomic outlook includes a cautious view on inflation and growth forecasts, with risks skewed slightly to the upside for inflation and downside for growth through 2027 [1] - The ECB's readiness to respond to changes in the economic outlook due to trade policy developments indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy [6] - The overall sentiment reflects a complex interplay between tariff policies, central bank actions, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence investment strategies moving forward [1][6][7][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's mention of "canceling the freeze on pledged bonds" has a neutral impact on the bond market, further confirming the central bank's limited easing attitude. The possibility of significant fluctuations in the money market is low. While the central bank continuously improves monetary policy tools to support government bond issuance and maintain liquidity, it does not want interest rates to decline rapidly, which could lead to increased interest rate risks [6][8][21]. - The current "anti - involution" campaign is in its early stage and has not directly affected the bond market. It mainly affects the bond market indirectly through the stock market, suppressing further declines in bond market interest rates. Whether it will have a significant impact on the bond market in the future depends on the implementation of specific industry policies and their impact on PPI, the boost of price improvements on demand and potential demand - side stimulus policies, and changes in the central bank's monetary policy attitude [6][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Marginal Changes - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Attitude**: On July 18, the central bank proposed to cancel the freeze on pledged bonds for bond repurchases. This move can relieve institutional debt pressure, enhance the liquidity of pledged bonds, and improve secondary - market trading activity. It can also prevent short - term interest rates from falling too quickly during subsequent treasury bond trading operations. Overall, it has a neutral impact on the bond market, indicating the central bank's limited easing stance [8]. - **"Anti - Involution" Implementation**: After the central government emphasized "anti - involution" and relevant articles were published, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and cement started to take action. The market associated this with the 2015 - 2016 supply - side reform, which led to rising commodity and stock prices and suppressed the bond market. During the 2015 - 2016 supply - side reform, bond market interest rates first declined and then increased. The factors influencing the change in interest rates included rising commodity prices and continuous improvement in PPI, the implementation of shantytown renovation monetization and a booming real - estate market, and the tightening of the central bank's monetary policy. In the current "anti - involution" campaign, due to incomplete policy implementation, high household leverage ratios, and the central bank's continued loose monetary policy, it has not directly affected the bond market but mainly influenced it through the stock market [12][13][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and persistent geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking eight consecutive months of increases with a recovery in the pace [1]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is slim, but the expected time points for rate cuts are September, October, or December [1]. Silver - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. Trump's tariff policy remains in effect [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England's key interest rate decreased by 25 basis points in May, and the expectation of rate cuts in August is rising, with 2 - 3 possible rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For investors, it is recommended to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks. For London gold, focus on support around $3,000 - $3,200 and resistance around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, support around 730 - 750 and resistance around 840 - 900. For London silver, support around $31 - $34 and resistance around $38 - $40; for Shanghai silver, support around 8,300 - 8,500 and resistance around 8,900 - 9,100 [1].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global bond yields have generally risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 6 basis points due to strong employment data reducing rate cut expectations [1] - Major global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices rising by 1.7%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively [1][3] - Commodity prices for gold and crude oil have rebounded this week, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.1% [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Strong employment data has led to a decrease in rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in July dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [4] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that while inflation is above the 2% target, the underlying inflation rate remains slightly below target, reducing expectations for rate hikes [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly [12] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating a trend of cooling employment [12] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49, but new orders continued to contract for the fifth consecutive month due to tariff policies [12] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Eurozone inflation has shown signs of stabilizing, with the CPI rising slightly to 2%, and the ECB is expected to consider a rate cut by the end of the year [29] - In the UK, a failed welfare reform has raised concerns about potential tax increases and borrowing, leading to a significant rise in long-term bond yields [29] - Japan's consumer spending increased by 4.7% year-on-year in May, driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and dining out [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the capital market was loose with a slight downward shift in the capital center under the central bank's care. In July, the capital market may continue to be moderately loose due to favorable factors, but it may not loosen significantly [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Review: Central Bank's Care Leads to Slight Downward Shift in Capital Center - **Capital Market Looseness**: In June, the capital market remained loose, with most - term capital centers moving down. DR001, DR007, and DR014 operation centers decreased by 11bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively compared to May. DR001 mostly operated below the policy rate, and the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate "anti - seasonally" narrowed [2][12]. - **Central Bank's Warm Attitude**: The central bank showed a warm attitude. It conducted two outright reverse - repurchase operations in June with early announcements, net - injecting 2000 billion yuan. MLF continued to increase, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June. The central bank's total net - injected funds in June were the second - highest among the same periods since 2018 [16]. - **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)**: In June, the maturity scale of NCDs reached a record high, and the issuance scale was the second - highest in history. However, the NCD issuance rate, after rising in mid - to - late May, started to decline in June under the central bank's long - term capital injection. The R - DR spread seasonally widened [3][19][21]. 3.2 7 - Month Outlook: Capital Market May Continue to be Moderately Loose under Favorable Factors - **Historical Seasonal Pattern**: Historically, capital rates in July tend to decline seasonally. Since 2018, the capital market in July has been more relaxed than in June, mainly manifested by the narrowing of the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate [4][24]. - **Exchange Rate Factor**: The recent dissipation of RMB depreciation pressure and the exchange rate approaching 7.15 mean that the current exchange - rate environment no longer restricts the central bank's monetary easing [4]. - **Central Bank's Mention of "Preventing Capital Idling"**: Although the central bank mentioned "preventing capital idling" in the second - quarter monetary policy meeting, since 2024, when this statement was made, the capital rate did not rise significantly. The central bank's frequent mention of it in 2025 may not be directly related to a change in its attitude [5][31][32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: In July, the net financing pressure of government bonds will slightly increase by 80 billion yuan compared to June. The increase in government deposits may widen the liquidity gap. Considering the maturity of monetary tools, the liquidity gap will be 2.06 trillion yuan. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs, the estimated excess - reserve ratio in July is about 1.3%, slightly lower than in June [6][37][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

| 行用品 | 贵金属日评20250612:关税仍未显著推升美国消费通胀,伊朗核问题牵动中东地缘风险 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-06-11 | 2025-06-10 | 2025-06-05 | 收盘价 | 777.54 | 783.72 | 775. 06 | 2. 48 | -6. 18 | | | | | 成交重 | -14, 472. 00 | 179960.00 | 198422.00 | 165488.00 | -32, 934. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 170163.00 | 168745.00 | 182808.00 | -1, 418. 00 | -14, 063. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17817.00 | 17817.00 | 17847.00 | 0. 00 | -30.00 | 上 ...