1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond market in August 2025 from multiple perspectives, including the central bank's balance sheet and custody volume, institutional leverage, institutional behavior by type, and bond types. It presents the latest trends in central bank monetary policy and institutional investment strategies, and predicts short - term investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [8]. - In the short term, due to the approaching of the end - of - September to early - October period to achieve the annual 5% growth target, with the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and cross - quarter capital fluctuations, institutional sentiment remains cautious, and there may be redemption disturbances. The remaining issuance quota of bonds is relatively low, indicating that there is still room for fiscal stimulus [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 August Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **Balance Sheet Changes**: In August 2025, the central bank's balance sheet size increased from 45.9 trillion yuan to 46.3 trillion yuan. On the asset side, the main increase was in "claims on other depository corporations", and the main decrease was in "claims on other financial corporations". On the liability side, the main increase was in "government deposits", and the main decrease was in "deposits of other depository corporations" [14]. - **Impact on Custody Volume**: The net investment of the central bank's innovative tools in August was 2608 billion yuan, which was close to the monthly increase of 2754 billion yuan in the "ChinaBond - Other" (central bank) account. The main incremental bond types were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds [32]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio - In August, the overall capital market was stable, but the bond market was in a head - wind period. The average monthly leverage ratio dropped to 107.4%. The stock - bond seesaw effect continued to suppress the bond market performance, and institutional leverage willingness weakened. The average monthly trading volume of pledged repurchase remained at 7.6 trillion yuan [37]. 3.3 By Institution Type - **Banks**: Large banks reduced their allocation of 7 - 15y local government bonds and extended the maturity of their Treasury bond purchases. Rural commercial banks' entry - point expectations rose, and their secondary - market trading demand weakened [52][54]. - **Insurance**: Since August, under the influence of "rush to stop sales", insurance companies have increased their bond purchases at high prices, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds and Treasury bonds [67]. - **General Funds**: In August, the custody volume of general funds decreased again this year, mainly reducing their holdings of certificates of deposit and commercial bank financial bonds. Fund redemptions occurred repeatedly, while bank wealth management's bond allocation was in line with the seasonal level [76][80][84]. - **Foreign Investors**: The decline in the comprehensive return of foreign investors' investment in certificates of deposit narrowed, and the net outflow speed slowed down. They mainly reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [93]. 3.4 By Bond Type - In August, the incremental increase in the bond market's custody volume decreased month - on - month. Interest - rate bonds were the main supporting factor, with increments of 8261 billion yuan, 5172 billion yuan, and 4616 billion yuan for Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds respectively. Certificates of deposit were the main reduction item, with a reduction of 3556 billion yuan [94].

Group 1 - Gold prices are nearing historical highs around $3,700, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which negatively impacts the dollar and benefits gold as a non-yielding asset [1][4] - The XAU/USD pair shows strong upward momentum despite being in an overbought condition, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching 80, indicating potential for further gains [3] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,642, while resistance levels are noted at $3,720, reflecting the current trading dynamics [4] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, influenced by recent U.S. inflation data [4] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, currently at 4.03%, has contributed to the rise in gold prices, as lower yields make gold more attractive [5] - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and employment reports from Australia, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core theme of the global foreign exchange market is centered around the weakening U.S. economic data and the resulting increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - A series of weak economic indicators, including a significantly lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase, a four-year high in initial jobless claims, and a decline in the consumer confidence index for the second consecutive month, depict a cooling labor market and weakening overall economic momentum [1] - Despite the CPI inflation data for August being slightly above expectations, market confidence in the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish policy remains strong, with a general expectation of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The Euro and British Pound have benefited from the general weakness of the U.S. dollar, with the Euro rising above the 1.1700 mark and the Pound testing the 1.3600 level [2] - The Australian Dollar has emerged as a standout currency, reaching a nearly 10-month high and surpassing 0.6600, driven by strong commodity prices and domestic inflation data that reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [2] - The Chinese Yuan has shown steady appreciation against the U.S. dollar, supported by the PBOC's proactive guidance on the midpoint [2] Group 3 - Market attention is focused on the upcoming meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with expectations of cautious market sentiment ahead of these significant risk events [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets in Europe and the US experienced significant turmoil on September 2, with widespread sell-offs in stocks, currencies, and bonds, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and rising debt yields [1][2][4]. Group 1: European Market Reactions - The European market faced a "triple whammy" with the pound and euro sharply declining against the dollar, with the pound dropping 1.52% to 1.3340, marking its largest single-day decline since April 7 [2]. - Major European stock indices fell, with the German index down 1.68%, and the broader European Stoxx 600 index also declining over 1% [2]. - The UK 30-year bond yield surged to 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, reflecting market fears regarding the sustainability of public finances [4]. Group 2: US Market Reactions - The US stock market also faced declines, with major indices dropping, including a more than 1% fall in the Nasdaq [1]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, spiked over 19%, indicating increased investor anxiety [1]. - US 30-year bond yields approached 5%, the highest since July, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the market [1]. Group 3: Debt Market Dynamics - Rising yields in the European bond market are attributed to increased fiscal spending by governments in response to geopolitical and economic challenges, with analysts noting a "vicious cycle" of rising debt concerns leading to higher yields [4]. - The UK government is facing pressure to implement tax increases, which could further impact the pound and investor confidence [4]. - Historical trends indicate that September is typically a challenging month for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% over the past decade for bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation pressures in both the UK and Eurozone are limiting the ability of central banks to lower interest rates, with the Eurozone's August CPI rising to 2.1%, above July's 2.0% [6]. - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone remains at 2.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a slowdown in service sector inflation [6]. - Market expectations suggest a low probability of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank before December, with only a 25% chance of a rate reduction [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - European financial markets experienced a significant sell-off on September 2, with the British pound dropping 1.52% against the US dollar, reaching a low of 1.3340, marking the largest single-day decline since April 7 [2] - The German stock index fell over 2%, while the UK 30-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 1998, reaching 5.69% [1][4] - In the US, major stock indices also faced sharp declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and the VIX index rising more than 19%, indicating increased market volatility [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rise in bond yields across Europe is attributed to increased fiscal spending by various countries to address geopolitical security and economic recovery, leading to concerns about the sustainability of public finances [4] - The UK 30-year bond yield reached 5.69%, while Germany's and France's yields also saw significant increases, with Germany at 3.40% and France surpassing 4.5% for the first time since 2011 [4] - Analysts noted a "vicious cycle" where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn exacerbate debt dynamics [4] Group 3: Policy and Economic Implications - Concerns over the sustainability of UK public finances were heightened by proposals for a windfall tax on bank reserves, which could further pressure the British pound [5] - The UK government is expected to implement additional tax measures, raising fears of increased fiscal pressure [5] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% over the past decade for bonds with maturities over 10 years [5] Group 4: Pension System Reforms - Structural reforms in the Dutch pension system are impacting the long-term bond market in Europe, as the new system encourages younger members to invest more in equities, reducing demand for long-duration hedging instruments [6] - The Dutch pension savings account for over half of the EU total, holding nearly €300 billion in European bonds [7] Group 5: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in Europe is influenced by inflation pressures, with the Eurozone's August CPI rising to 2.1%, above July's 2.0% [8][9] - The core inflation rate remained at 2.3%, exceeding market expectations, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [8] - Market expectations suggest a 25% chance of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting rates before December, amid ongoing economic growth and inflation risks [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a potential September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure and possible replacement of Fed officials, along with global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly build long positions when prices decline, with specific support and pressure levels provided for different precious metals [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 777.62 yuan/g, with a daily change of 0.79 yuan and a weekly change of 5.96 yuan. COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 3358.90 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 92.90 dollars and a weekly change of 8.60 dollars. London gold spot price was 3376.35 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 9.25 dollars and a weekly change of 41.90 dollars [1]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said he never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the accusations. Trump's economic advisor pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit. The New York Fed President Williams said every meeting is a potentially actionable meeting, emphasizing the Fed's independence [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 9261.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a daily change of 117.00 yuan and a weekly change of - 50.00 yuan. COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 38.69 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 1.36 dollars and a weekly change of - 0.01 dollars [1]. - **Important Information**: Import tariffs pushed up US production - side and consumer - side inflation in July. Powell's remarks due to weak employment supply - demand increased the expectation of a September rate cut, but the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI data on September 6th and 11th need to be monitored [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. Due to better - than - expected August manufacturing PMI, it may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: Cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce government bond holdings, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: Kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% in July, will start reducing quarterly government bond purchases from 4000 billion to 2000 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 83.95, with a daily change of 0.44 and a weekly change of - 0.65. The ratio of London gold to London silver was 88.35, with a daily change of 0.71 and a weekly change of 0.76 [1]. - **Other Commodities**: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 67.20 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.86 dollars/barrel [1]. Stock Indices and Exchange Rates - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,800.3499, the S&P 500 was 6,411.3700, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,255.5000, etc [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.2375, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1287, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.2924 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core View The Fed Chairman Powell signaled a potential September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure to replace Fed officials and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and fall less easily. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 781.16 yuan/g on August 28, 2025, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day and 6.04 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 135,834, and open interest was 166,596. The basis (spot - futures) was - 3.54 yuan [1]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said he never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the accusations. Trump's economic advisor pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit. New York Fed President Williams said every meeting is a substantial meeting for possible action [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 9,305 yuan/10g on August 28, 2025, down 49 yuan from the previous day. Trading volume was 268,955, and open interest was 280,655. The basis (spot - futures) was - 44 yuan [1]. - **Important Information**: Import tariffs pushed up US production - end inflation (PPI) and consumer - end inflation (core CPI) in July. Fed Chairman Powell mentioned a possible policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, increasing the expectation of a September rate cut [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: It paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. Eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), and the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: It cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. Given the economic data, it may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: It kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly bond purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1]. Other Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 67.20 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.86 US dollars/barrel [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,800.35, the S&P 500 was 6,411.37, and the UK FTSE 100 was 9,255.50 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - 8 - 10 months are in a headwind period for the bond market, with current sentiment weaker than in March. Short - term advice is to observe more and trade less, and take profit and adjust positions when there is a yield decline window. Mid - term is an adjustment rather than a reversal, so pay attention to opportunities arising from declines [7][10][107]. - Currently, the safety cushion of bank wealth management still exists. In the short term, redemptions may be a small - scale redemption wave at the fund level. If the yield rises to 1.9%, pay attention to the redemption pressure of wealth management [7][10][107]. - The 30 - 10y spread has reached a new high since 2024. Considering the positive effects of the insurance predetermined interest rate cut and "rush to stop sales", gradually allocate during adjustments when the 10y Treasury bond approaches 1.8% and the 30 - 10y spread is around 30bp [7][10][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation 3.1.1 July 2025 Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes - The central bank's balance sheet scale increased from 45.8 trillion yuan to 45.9 trillion yuan, up 16.7 billion yuan. The main increase on the asset side was "claims on other depository corporations", and on the liability side, it was "government deposits", while the main decrease was "deposits of other depository corporations" [15]. - On the asset side, the "claims on other depository corporations" were close to the open - market投放 scale, showing positive liquidity support. The PSL balance has been rapidly decreasing since the beginning of the year, and attention should be paid to the restart of policy - related financial tools. The "claims on the central government" continued to shrink due to the maturity of short - term Treasury bonds [17][18][20]. - On the liability side, due to the large tax - payment month and increased supply, government deposit increments reached a seasonal high. Bank system funds flowed to fiscal deposits, causing the "deposits of other depository corporations" to decline seasonally [23][28]. 3.1.2 Impact of July 2025 Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume - In July, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. Treasury bond trading remained suspended [32]. - The scale of innovative tools was consistent with the change in the custody volume account. The main incremental varieties were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds, and the main reduction item was Treasury bonds [33]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: After the Quarter - end, the Funding Situation Eased, and Institutional Leverage Declined Seasonally - In July, after the quarter - end, the funding situation eased, and the average monthly leverage ratio declined seasonally to 107.6%. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased to 7.6 trillion yuan, and the average bond - market leverage ratio decreased from 107.8% to 107.6% [38]. 3.3 By Institution: Allocation - Oriented Investors Increased Positions on Highs, Redemption Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Big Bond - Allocation Month 3.3.1 Banks: Large Banks Set a New Monthly Bond - Allocation High, and Rural Commercial Banks Bought 7 - 10y Bonds on Highs - As of July 2025, commercial banks mainly held local government bonds, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly increased positions in interest - rate bonds and reduced positions in certificates of deposit [44][46]. - Large banks' bond - investment scale reached a new high in July. In the primary market, government - bond supply advanced seasonally, and in the secondary market, regulatory pressure eased, and they mainly bought short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit [50]. - Rural commercial banks bought 7 - 10y interest - rate bonds on highs in July. Since mid - August, their bond - buying scale increased again, but their willingness to allocate below 1.75% weakened [54][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance: Bond - Allocation Sentiment Was Good Since July, and Attention Should Be Paid to Structural Opportunities from the Predetermined Interest Rate Cut - As of July 2025, insurance companies mainly held local government bonds, credit bonds, and Treasury bonds. They increased positions in local government bonds and certificates of deposit in July [59][60]. - The predetermined interest rate of insurance products will be officially lowered in September. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the 30 - 10y spread, and gradually allocate during adjustments [67]. 3.3.3 General Funds: Redemption Pressure Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Seasonal Bond - Allocation Month - As of July 2025, general funds mainly held credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they increased positions in credit bonds and reduced positions in interest - rate bonds [69][74]. - Funds faced increased redemption pressure in July and mainly sold 7 - 10y Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and certificates of deposit. After August 18, the redemption wave restarted, and historically, the 10y Treasury bond usually peaked within 5 trading days after the start of redemptions [79]. - Bank wealth management had a bond - allocation month driven by liabilities, but some "front - running" behaviors overdrew the seasonal bond - allocation demand [81]. 3.3.4 Foreign Investors: The Comprehensive Yield of Investing in Certificates of Deposit Decreased, and the Net Outflow Speed Accelerated - As of July 2025, foreign institutions mainly held Treasury bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly reduced positions in certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [85][92]. 3.4 By Bond Type: The Main Support for the Increment of Bond - Market Custody Volume Was Government Bonds, and the Main Reduction Item Was Certificates of Deposit - In July, the increment of the bond - market custody volume increased, with government bonds as the main support and certificates of deposit as the main reduction item. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased from 1.7067 trillion yuan to 1.5334 trillion yuan [94][99]. - For Treasury bonds, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing scale declined. For local government bonds, the issuance scale increased, and the net financing scale increased. For policy - bank bonds, the supply rhythm was relatively stable, and the net financing scale changed little [99][100]. - For certificates of deposit, after the quarter - end, the funding situation was loose, and bank liability pressure was limited, resulting in negative net financing [104].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is viewed as a stable asset and a safe haven, especially during periods of economic uncertainty, with its market influenced by global economic changes, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Global Economic Uncertainty - Increasing global economic uncertainty has led to a rise in demand for gold as a safe haven, particularly during signs of financial crises or economic recessions [3]. - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions between the US and Europe, significantly affect gold price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of the Gold Market - Technical analysis reveals patterns in gold price movements, identifying key support and resistance levels that influence market behavior [4]. - Indicators such as trend lines and moving averages are essential tools for investors to assess overall market trends and short-term trading opportunities [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies and Gold Market - Central bank monetary policies, especially decisions by major banks like the Federal Reserve, directly impact the attractiveness of gold as an investment [7]. - Changes in central bank gold reserves reflect confidence in gold, with purchases by central banks potentially driving short-term price increases [7]. Group 4: Investment Decision-Making in Gold Market - Investors should adjust their strategies based on market trends, considering the implications of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on gold prices [8]. - The volatility of gold prices necessitates that investors tailor their investment plans according to their risk tolerance [8]. Group 5: Investment Methods in Gold - Various investment options in gold include physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold futures, each with distinct risk and return characteristics [10]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor multiple influencing factors and adapt their strategies accordingly to capitalize on investment opportunities in the gold market [10].

Global Asset Prices - Nikkei 225 index rose by 4.1% this week, leading global stock markets[3] - S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increased by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively[7] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims fell from 221,000 to 217,000, indicating a stable labor market[4] - Core capital goods orders in June showed a negative month-on-month growth of -0.7%[4] - U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.9 to 49.5, marking the first decline below the neutral line since December[4] Central Bank Policies - Federal Reserve's rate cut probability for July is close to 0, with expectations of two cuts this year[4] - European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating no urgency for further cuts[4] - Bank of Japan's deputy governor suggested potential for rate hikes due to reduced economic uncertainty from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement[4] Other Economic Developments - Eurozone services PMI rose to 51.2%, while manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8%, the highest in 36 months[4] - Ongoing military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia following border tensions[4] Upcoming Focus - Key upcoming events include U.S.-China trade talks, Q2 GDP data, and U.S. non-farm payrolls for July[4]