报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 商品普遍上涨。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨多跌少，标普500、道琼斯和纳斯达克指数分别下跌0.4%、1.3%和1%。债市方面，海外主要市场债市收益率多数下 行，10年期美债收益率较上周下行11bp。商品方面，美伊地缘风险推动商品价格普涨。原油价格上涨，WTI原油和布伦特原油较上周分别上行3.8%和4.9%，伦敦金 价上升3.3%。汇率方面，美元指数回落0.1%，离岸人民币兑美元升值0.5%。 | | | 2. 主要央行货币政策 美联储正推进"去监管"。 2月26日，美联储副主席鲍曼在国会发表证词，系统阐述了对银行业监管框架的全面改革计划。她表示，对于社区银行，美联储正推动提 高法定资产门槛、修订数十年未变的反洗钱报告标准，并简化并购审批流程，赋予其更大资本灵活性，使其专注于服务经济。对于大型银行，美联储也在推动对监 管框架的修订，包括资本框架的四大支柱进行调整：压力测试、补充杠杆率、巴塞尔协议III框架以及全球系统重要性银行附加费。 欧央行方面， 拉加德表示预期 中期内通胀率将稳定在2%的目标水平，因此月初继续维持政策利率不变。 日央行方面， 日本央行行长暗示，若春季工 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bohai Bank has actively participated in the cross-border payment infrastructure sector with the launch of its CIPS direct participation system, achieving a settlement amount of over 910 million yuan within two days of its launch [1] Group 2 - Bohai Bank's stock price has shown positive performance recently, with a 1.40% increase on February 20, 2026, and closing at 0.91 HKD on February 23, 2026, reflecting a single-day increase of 1.11% [2] - The overall Hong Kong banking sector rose by 1.44%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53% during the same period [2] Group 3 - According to a report by Tianfeng Securities on February 22, 2026, the net interest margin of commercial banks has stabilized at 1.42% for three consecutive quarters, with the LPR remaining stable [3] - The report indicates that high loan pricing may negatively impact credit demand, predicting that credit growth could fall below 5.5% in 2026 [3]

转折出现在1月底。美联储会议维持利率不变，随后特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，市场解 读为可能带来政策确定性的信号。美元指数由此展开反弹，回到97上方运行。然而，反弹力度相对温 和，显示出市场对美元中长期前景仍持谨慎态度。 主要非美货币在此期间表现分化。欧元、英镑兑美元均录得一定涨幅，反映出欧洲经济边际改善与央行 政策立场的支撑。人民币表现尤为突出，兑美元汇率一度突破6.94关口，创2023年5月以来新高。这种 强势既与美元整体走弱相关，也得益于中国经济的企稳迹象。 从政策层面观察，中国人民银行在2月初实施了降准操作，释放长期流动性。这一宽松举措并未对人民 币汇率形成明显压力，显示出当前汇率形成机制具有较强的弹性。外汇管理局同时公布了外汇储备增长 的数据，为人民币汇率提供了基本面支撑。 展望未来，美元指数的走势将取决于美联储政策路径的清晰度以及美国经济的相对表现。若就业与通胀 数据确认放缓趋势，美元可能继续承压；反之，若数据展现出韧性，则支持美元企稳。主要央行货币政 策的分化程度将是决定汇市格局的关键变量。 外汇市场在2026年开年呈现出复杂的波动特征。美元指数经历了先抑后扬的走势，年初一度跌至202 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show a slight improvement with a forecast of 64,000 new jobs in January, up from the previous 50,000, but still at a low level [2] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain at 4.4%, indicating potential stagnation in the labor market [2] - Two events in January, including Trump's comments on Greenland and actions by the U.S. immigration authorities, may negatively impact employment data, leading to a potentially weak non-farm payroll report [2] Group 2 - The Australian economy is experiencing different dynamics, with core inflation rising from 2.8% in June 2025 to 3.3% in December, indicating inflationary pressures [3] - The unemployment rate in Australia has decreased from 4.4% to 4.1%, suggesting a stable job market [3] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, making it the only major central bank tightening its policy amid differing economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The market will focus on two main themes: whether the U.S. labor market shows significant cooling and how major central banks respond to their respective economic realities [3] - Weak non-farm data could alter the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, while the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate hike highlights policy divergence among economies [3] - Traders should prepare for market volatility as these economic indicators unfold [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC's reverse repos totaled a net injection of 5,805 billion yuan, with 2,000 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing on Monday and 1,500 billion yuan of 1-month treasury cash deposits conducted by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday [1] - The overall overnight funding rate increased compared to December 2022, with R001 and DR001 average monthly rates rising by 4.7 and 5.5 basis points to 1.41% and 1.34%, respectively [1] Group 2 - According to analysts, the stability in the funding environment in January was supported by the PBOC's relatively generous liquidity provision, releasing a total of 1 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term funds, equivalent to a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut [2] - The upcoming week will see a total of 17,615 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, with an expected increase in cash withdrawal demand as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Analysts expect the PBOC to maintain a loose monetary policy, potentially using various tools such as 7-day or 14-day reverse repos to stabilize liquidity before and after the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The PBOC's clear supportive stance on liquidity is expected to continue, with anticipated liquidity injections of around 30,000 to 35,000 billion yuan before the Spring Festival, aiming to ensure a stable funding environment [3] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to remain high to meet funding needs for key projects, which may introduce additional liquidity pressures [3] - Despite potential short-term tightening, the overall funding environment is expected to remain stable, with reduced volatility in both DR007 and DR001 compared to previous years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond market in November 2025 based on the central bank's balance sheet and bond custody data, presenting the latest ideas of the central bank's monetary policy and the new dynamics of institutional investors' bond - market investment strategies, and predicting short - term investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [9]. - In the cross - year allocation window, some trading opportunities can be appropriately participated in, and when the 10y Treasury bond approaches 1.85%, it has a safety margin and can also be appropriately allocated. For 30y bonds, small - band operations can be carried out when the 30 - 10y spread is above 40bp, and larger positions require the start of a decline in the 10y Treasury bond yield or an improvement in the supply - demand structure of ultra - long bonds. The cross - year funds are expected to remain loose, and the coupon - holding strategy can be continued, with different strategies for different types of investors [10][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 11 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation 3.1.1 November 2025 Central Bank Balance Sheet Change Interpretation - In November 2025, the central bank's balance sheet size increased from 47.06 trillion yuan to 47.30 trillion yuan. The main increase items on the asset side were "claims on other depository corporations", and on the liability side, they were "currency issue" and "deposits of other depository corporations", while the main decrease item was "deposits of financial corporations not included in reserve money" [15]. - On the asset side, near the end of the year, the central bank "withdrew short - term funds and released long - term funds", and the increment of "claims on other depository corporations" rebounded. The central bank increased its net purchase of Treasury bonds, and its Treasury bond holdings increased slightly after considering the maturity of the month. - On the liability side, due to the strong demand for cash by residents and enterprises at the end of the year, the "currency issue" and "deposits of other depository corporations" of the central bank increased seasonally [27] 3.1.2 Impact of the Central Bank's Operations on Custody Volume in November 2025 - In November 2025, the central bank carried out 150 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and a net purchase of 5 billion yuan of Treasury bonds, with a total net investment of 54.88 billion yuan through innovative tools. The single - month increase in the "ChinaBond - Other" (central bank) account was 59.07 billion yuan, which was relatively close to the net investment scale of innovative tools. The main incremental bond types were Treasury bonds and local government bonds [31][32] 3.2 Leverage Ratio: Driven by the Carry Trade Space, the Institutional Leverage Level Continued to Rise - In November, with the central bank's increased volume of outright reverse repurchases and MLF and the help of fiscal expenditures, the capital market was generally stable. The carry - trade strategy of institutions was dominant, the average monthly trading volume of the whole - market pledged repurchase increased from 7.3 trillion yuan in October to 7.5 trillion yuan in November, and further rose to 8.3 trillion yuan since December. The average leverage ratio of bond funds increased from 116.9% in October to 117% in November, and further to 118.7% since December [34] 3.3 By Institution: The Power of Allocation - Oriented Investors Remained, Funds Reduced Duration, and Wealth Management Reserves Coupon - Bearing Assets 3.3.1 Reasons for the Widening of the 30 - 10y Spread - In the long - run, the imbalance in the supply - demand structure of ultra - long bonds may affect the spread center, including the continuous lengthening of government bond issuance terms and the weakening of the allocation demand for ultra - long bonds. However, in the short - term, the direct reason for the widening of the 30 - 10y spread was the large - scale selling by trading - oriented investors such as funds and securities companies [43][46] 3.3.2 Banks: Large - Scale Banks' Short - Term Bond Buying Continued to Increase, and Rural Commercial Banks' Sentiment towards Allocating Certificates of Deposit Improved - Large - scale banks: In November, the single - month bond investment volume increased significantly. In the primary market, the demand for underwriting government bonds increased, and in the secondary market, the net buying of short - term bonds was strengthened. Due to the pressure of duration indicators, the continuous buying of short - term bonds by large - scale banks led to a continuous widening of the 10 - 3y Treasury bond term spread [55][58] - Rural commercial banks: The sentiment towards allocating bonds improved, and they turned to net buyers of certificates of deposit. In November, the net selling scale decreased significantly, and they increased their positions in some bonds during the bond - market adjustment. Since December, with the rising spread between certificates of deposit and Treasury bonds, rural commercial banks turned to net buyers of certificates of deposit [61] 3.3.3 Insurance: During the Bond - Market Adjustment, Insurance Increased Positions at High Yields, Mainly Increasing Positions in Exchange - Traded Local Government Bonds - In November, as the bond - market yield fluctuated upward, insurance companies increased their positions at high yields, mainly increasing their positions in exchange - traded local government bonds. The total monthly bond - allocation increment in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased, and the net buying scale also rose [70] 3.3.4 General Funds: Driven by the Defensive Mentality, Funds Reduced Duration and Sold Ultra - Long Bonds, and Wealth Management Reserves Coupon - Bearing Assets in Advance - Funds: In November, the redemption pressure of funds reappeared, and the scale of bond funds was under pressure. Driven by the defensive mentality, they reduced duration and sold ultra - long bonds, with the net buying scale significantly weaker than the seasonal level. Since mid - December, the sentiment towards allocating bonds has improved [81] - Bank wealth management: Supported by the transfer of deposits, the scale of bank wealth management increased, and the main allocation varieties switched from certificates of deposit to short - term credit bonds, preparing coupon - bearing assets for the next year in advance [84] 3.3.5 Foreign Capital: The Comprehensive Return on Investing in Certificates of Deposit Remained at a Low Level, and the Net Outflow of Foreign Capital Accelerated - In November 2025, the comprehensive return on foreign capital's investment in certificates of deposit remained at a low level, and the net outflow scale increased, mainly reducing positions in certificates of deposit and Treasury bonds [93] 3.4 By Bond Type: The Main Support for the Increment of the Bond - Market Custody Volume was Government Bonds - In November, the increment of the bond - market custody volume increased to 1.4798 trillion yuan, and government bonds were the main support, with the increments of Treasury bonds and local government bonds being 645.7 billion yuan and 590.2 billion yuan respectively [95] - Interest - rate bonds: The net financing scale increased. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds increased from 623 billion yuan to 1495.1 billion yuan, with the net financing scale of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rising [102] - Certificates of deposit: The maturity pressure increased, and the net financing of certificates of deposit decreased significantly. In November, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit increased significantly, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing scale dropped from 796.9 billion yuan to - 511.2 billion yuan [105]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD), reaching a 14-month high, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy shift, rising commodity prices, and a weakening USD [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of December 26, 2025, the AUD/USD exchange rate is 0.6711, up 0.1343% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of over 7% [1]. - The AUD has broken through the 0.67 level, indicating a strong upward trend, with the potential to reach the 0.70 range if it maintains its position above recent highs [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The RBA has kept interest rates steady at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, signaling an end to the rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for a near 50% chance of a rate hike by March 2026 [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points this year, maintaining a dovish stance that diminishes the attractiveness of the USD [1][2]. Group 3: Commodity Influence - The AUD benefits from strong commodity prices, particularly gold and copper, with Australia's gold export expected to reach AUD 60 billion this fiscal year [1]. - Strong private consumption in Australia, with household spending rising 1.3% month-on-month in October, further supports the AUD's fundamentals [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The USD index has declined over 10% this year, with expectations of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while improved economic growth forecasts for China bolster AUD export prospects [2]. - Technical analysis indicates a clear upward trend for the AUD/USD, with resistance at 0.6717 and support at 0.6625 [2]. - Market focus will be on Australian inflation and labor data, RBA's rate hike pace for 2026, the Fed's rate cut trajectory, and commodity price trends [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo's inflation has cooled more than expected due to easing pressures from food and energy prices, but this is not expected to hinder the Bank of Japan's plans for further interest rate hikes [1] Inflation Data Summary - The core consumer price index in Tokyo, excluding fresh food, rose by 2.3% year-on-year in December, a significant drop from the previous month's increase of 2.8%, while economists had anticipated a decrease to only 2.5% [1] - The overall inflation rate slowed from 2.7% last month to 2.0%, and the core-core inflation rate, excluding fresh food and energy prices, decreased to 2.6% [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Tokyo's inflation data is traditionally a leading indicator for national inflation trends in Japan, and the market is closely monitoring these figures to assess the timing of the Bank of Japan's next policy adjustments [1] - Last week, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy committee unanimously decided to raise the policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 [1] - Despite the significant drop in inflation data, it remains above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, indicating that the path for further policy tightening remains unaffected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a strong performance against the US dollar (USD), with a year-to-date increase of over 7% and a quarterly rise of 1.4%, driven by differences in central bank policies and economic conditions [3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of the latest trading session, the AUD/USD exchange rate experienced a slight decline of 0.0447%, with a trading range of 0.6698 to 0.6710, and both the opening and closing rates at 0.6705 [1]. - On December 23, the AUD/USD pair broke through the 0.67 level, reaching a 14-month high since October 2024 [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its policy interest rate at 3.6%, with Governor Bullock indicating no need for further rate cuts and leaving open the possibility of future rate hikes, which has raised market expectations for a rate increase in the first meeting of the next year to over 30% [3]. - In contrast, the US Federal Reserve has completed three rate cuts this year, lowering the interest rate range to 3.5%-3.75%, which continues to influence the USD's performance [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The RBA has noted that stronger-than-expected domestic demand could exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to an upward bias in inflation risks, which supports the RBA's policy stance [3]. - The Australian economy's stable domestic demand, including private consumption and investment, provides a fundamental support for the AUD, countering some external pressures [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The structural weakness of the USD has provided external support for the rise of the AUD, with the USD index declining over 9% year-to-date due to factors such as Fed rate cuts and economic data concerns [4]. - Technically, the AUD/USD is in an upward channel with solid bullish structure, focusing on support at 0.6620 and resistance at previous highs around 0.6707, with potential to reach the 0.6740 range [4].

Group 1 - Australia's employment unexpectedly decreased by 21,300, with a significant reduction in full-time positions, contrary to the expectation of an increase of 20,000 [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in November, which is lower than the economists' forecast of 4.4% [1][2] - The sensitive 3-year government bond yields continued to decline, expected to record the largest single-day drop since May [1][2] Group 2 - The Australian central bank faces the dual mandate of maintaining stable low inflation and full employment, making the current situation particularly delicate [1][2] - Policymakers are attempting to ease persistent price pressures without triggering widespread unemployment, complicated by limited spare capacity in the economy [1][2] - This situation has temporarily forced the Australian central bank to remain on hold after three rate cuts this year, making it one of the countries with the shortest easing cycles among developed economies [1][2] - The central bank maintained interest rates this week, with Governor Michele Bullock warning that the next move in rates is likely to be upward [1][2]