欧洲央行在可预见的未来可能维持利率不变，而英国央行可能在通胀改善、劳动力市场相对乏力、潜在 加税的情况下于12月恢复降息。 日本通胀高企且增长强劲，可能促使日本央行加息，最近的政治变化和向宽松财政政策的转变进一步强 化了这一方向。 其中提到，各主要市场的央行政策或走向分化。鉴于劳动力市场疲软，高盛资产管理预计美联储在2026 年可能降息两次。 据证券时报，11月18日，高盛资产管理发布了2026年投资展望报告。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility while waiting for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%, and with the restart of central bank Treasury bond trading and a loose monetary policy orientation, the top of interest rates and the bottom of Treasury bond futures are more solid [3]. - The buying power of gold and silver has increased, and their price centers are expected to continue to rise [3]. - Various commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity, such as buying on dips, holding long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a re - pricing adjustment after the release of the third - quarter reports, with narrow - range callbacks and rebounds in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bullish put - option spread can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The buying power of gold and silver has increased. Gold resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and it can be bought on dips below $4100 (936 yuan). Silver may rise to $52 (12000 yuan), and long - call options can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract is in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and an arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1170 - 1290, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1780, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and corresponding investment suggestions, such as holding long - positions for tin, and taking a wait - and - see or other strategies for others [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 58000 due to decreased demand and falling silicon wafer prices [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price is in a moderate - amplitude shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high [3]. Energy and Chemical - **PX, PTA, etc.**: Each chemical product has its own price range and investment strategies, such as taking a wait - and - see attitude, reducing long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Hogs, etc.**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions, such as holding a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage for hogs and paying attention to support or pressure levels for others [3].

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China is advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and researching foreign exchange futures, aiming to develop the Renminbi derivatives market and promote its trading with neighboring and Belt and Road countries [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's meeting [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, indicating no urgent need for policy adjustments as inflation has reached its target [2] - The Bank of Japan has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with expectations of gradual inflation increases [2] - The Bank of Canada has also reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, continuing its trend of rate cuts [2] Market Observations - Nomura Securities has canceled its expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, following the Fed's recent rate decision and Powell's press conference [4] - The market currently estimates a 72% probability of another rate cut by the end of the year, down from approximately 91% prior to the Fed's decision [5] - Analysts from Barclays and other institutions warn that traders may be underestimating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England [5] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde has signaled that there will be no rate cuts in the coming months, reinforcing the rationale for maintaining current rates [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in yields due to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) upcoming resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which is expected to benefit the financial system's liabilities in the short term, although the preference for risk among investors may limit the extent of interest rate declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 30, the interbank bond market yields have shown a downward trend, with the 3-month government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.30%, the 2-year yield stabilizing around 1.41%, and the 10-year yield falling by 1 basis point to 1.81% [2]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the PBOC, which had been paused for 10 months, is expected to significantly impact the market, especially in the context of increased issuance of government and local bonds [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the current yield curve may have adjusted to a level acceptable to the PBOC, with limited interest rate risk and potential for further steepening of the curve [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a cautious optimism among institutions regarding the extent of the bond market's upward movement, as the expectation of the PBOC's actions had already been priced in by the market [3][4]. - The market is advised to remain rational about the potential for further declines in interest rates, particularly for long-term bonds, as the impact of the PBOC's bond purchases may already be reflected in current yield levels [3][4]. - The focus for investors will shift to the potential for further monetary easing, with discussions around whether the resumption of bond purchases signals a broader easing of monetary policy [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Institutions are encouraged to monitor potential adjustment pressures following the positive news regarding bond purchases, as the market may switch to a support logic for short-term bonds [4]. - It is suggested that investors consider small-scale operations in response to the PBOC's bond purchase news, with a more favorable market environment anticipated towards the end of the year [4]. - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile range, with the 10-year government bond likely oscillating between 1.8% and 1.9%, and investors may consider reverse interest rate strategies [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond market in August 2025 from multiple perspectives, including the central bank's balance sheet and custody volume, institutional leverage, institutional behavior by type, and bond types. It presents the latest trends in central bank monetary policy and institutional investment strategies, and predicts short - term investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [8]. - In the short term, due to the approaching of the end - of - September to early - October period to achieve the annual 5% growth target, with the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and cross - quarter capital fluctuations, institutional sentiment remains cautious, and there may be redemption disturbances. The remaining issuance quota of bonds is relatively low, indicating that there is still room for fiscal stimulus [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 August Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **Balance Sheet Changes**: In August 2025, the central bank's balance sheet size increased from 45.9 trillion yuan to 46.3 trillion yuan. On the asset side, the main increase was in "claims on other depository corporations", and the main decrease was in "claims on other financial corporations". On the liability side, the main increase was in "government deposits", and the main decrease was in "deposits of other depository corporations" [14]. - **Impact on Custody Volume**: The net investment of the central bank's innovative tools in August was 2608 billion yuan, which was close to the monthly increase of 2754 billion yuan in the "ChinaBond - Other" (central bank) account. The main incremental bond types were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds [32]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio - In August, the overall capital market was stable, but the bond market was in a head - wind period. The average monthly leverage ratio dropped to 107.4%. The stock - bond seesaw effect continued to suppress the bond market performance, and institutional leverage willingness weakened. The average monthly trading volume of pledged repurchase remained at 7.6 trillion yuan [37]. 3.3 By Institution Type - **Banks**: Large banks reduced their allocation of 7 - 15y local government bonds and extended the maturity of their Treasury bond purchases. Rural commercial banks' entry - point expectations rose, and their secondary - market trading demand weakened [52][54]. - **Insurance**: Since August, under the influence of "rush to stop sales", insurance companies have increased their bond purchases at high prices, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds and Treasury bonds [67]. - **General Funds**: In August, the custody volume of general funds decreased again this year, mainly reducing their holdings of certificates of deposit and commercial bank financial bonds. Fund redemptions occurred repeatedly, while bank wealth management's bond allocation was in line with the seasonal level [76][80][84]. - **Foreign Investors**: The decline in the comprehensive return of foreign investors' investment in certificates of deposit narrowed, and the net outflow speed slowed down. They mainly reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [93]. 3.4 By Bond Type - In August, the incremental increase in the bond market's custody volume decreased month - on - month. Interest - rate bonds were the main supporting factor, with increments of 8261 billion yuan, 5172 billion yuan, and 4616 billion yuan for Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds respectively. Certificates of deposit were the main reduction item, with a reduction of 3556 billion yuan [94].

Group 1 - Gold prices are nearing historical highs around $3,700, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which negatively impacts the dollar and benefits gold as a non-yielding asset [1][4] - The XAU/USD pair shows strong upward momentum despite being in an overbought condition, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching 80, indicating potential for further gains [3] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,642, while resistance levels are noted at $3,720, reflecting the current trading dynamics [4] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, influenced by recent U.S. inflation data [4] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, currently at 4.03%, has contributed to the rise in gold prices, as lower yields make gold more attractive [5] - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and employment reports from Australia, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core theme of the global foreign exchange market is centered around the weakening U.S. economic data and the resulting increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - A series of weak economic indicators, including a significantly lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase, a four-year high in initial jobless claims, and a decline in the consumer confidence index for the second consecutive month, depict a cooling labor market and weakening overall economic momentum [1] - Despite the CPI inflation data for August being slightly above expectations, market confidence in the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish policy remains strong, with a general expectation of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The Euro and British Pound have benefited from the general weakness of the U.S. dollar, with the Euro rising above the 1.1700 mark and the Pound testing the 1.3600 level [2] - The Australian Dollar has emerged as a standout currency, reaching a nearly 10-month high and surpassing 0.6600, driven by strong commodity prices and domestic inflation data that reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [2] - The Chinese Yuan has shown steady appreciation against the U.S. dollar, supported by the PBOC's proactive guidance on the midpoint [2] Group 3 - Market attention is focused on the upcoming meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with expectations of cautious market sentiment ahead of these significant risk events [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets in Europe and the US experienced significant turmoil on September 2, with widespread sell-offs in stocks, currencies, and bonds, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and rising debt yields [1][2][4]. Group 1: European Market Reactions - The European market faced a "triple whammy" with the pound and euro sharply declining against the dollar, with the pound dropping 1.52% to 1.3340, marking its largest single-day decline since April 7 [2]. - Major European stock indices fell, with the German index down 1.68%, and the broader European Stoxx 600 index also declining over 1% [2]. - The UK 30-year bond yield surged to 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, reflecting market fears regarding the sustainability of public finances [4]. Group 2: US Market Reactions - The US stock market also faced declines, with major indices dropping, including a more than 1% fall in the Nasdaq [1]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, spiked over 19%, indicating increased investor anxiety [1]. - US 30-year bond yields approached 5%, the highest since July, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the market [1]. Group 3: Debt Market Dynamics - Rising yields in the European bond market are attributed to increased fiscal spending by governments in response to geopolitical and economic challenges, with analysts noting a "vicious cycle" of rising debt concerns leading to higher yields [4]. - The UK government is facing pressure to implement tax increases, which could further impact the pound and investor confidence [4]. - Historical trends indicate that September is typically a challenging month for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% over the past decade for bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation pressures in both the UK and Eurozone are limiting the ability of central banks to lower interest rates, with the Eurozone's August CPI rising to 2.1%, above July's 2.0% [6]. - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone remains at 2.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a slowdown in service sector inflation [6]. - Market expectations suggest a low probability of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank before December, with only a 25% chance of a rate reduction [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - European financial markets experienced a significant sell-off on September 2, with the British pound dropping 1.52% against the US dollar, reaching a low of 1.3340, marking the largest single-day decline since April 7 [2] - The German stock index fell over 2%, while the UK 30-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 1998, reaching 5.69% [1][4] - In the US, major stock indices also faced sharp declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and the VIX index rising more than 19%, indicating increased market volatility [1] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rise in bond yields across Europe is attributed to increased fiscal spending by various countries to address geopolitical security and economic recovery, leading to concerns about the sustainability of public finances [4] - The UK 30-year bond yield reached 5.69%, while Germany's and France's yields also saw significant increases, with Germany at 3.40% and France surpassing 4.5% for the first time since 2011 [4] - Analysts noted a "vicious cycle" where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn exacerbate debt dynamics [4] Group 3: Policy and Economic Implications - Concerns over the sustainability of UK public finances were heightened by proposals for a windfall tax on bank reserves, which could further pressure the British pound [5] - The UK government is expected to implement additional tax measures, raising fears of increased fiscal pressure [5] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% over the past decade for bonds with maturities over 10 years [5] Group 4: Pension System Reforms - Structural reforms in the Dutch pension system are impacting the long-term bond market in Europe, as the new system encourages younger members to invest more in equities, reducing demand for long-duration hedging instruments [6] - The Dutch pension savings account for over half of the EU total, holding nearly €300 billion in European bonds [7] Group 5: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in Europe is influenced by inflation pressures, with the Eurozone's August CPI rising to 2.1%, above July's 2.0% [8][9] - The core inflation rate remained at 2.3%, exceeding market expectations, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [8] - Market expectations suggest a 25% chance of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting rates before December, amid ongoing economic growth and inflation risks [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a potential September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure and possible replacement of Fed officials, along with global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly build long positions when prices decline, with specific support and pressure levels provided for different precious metals [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 777.62 yuan/g, with a daily change of 0.79 yuan and a weekly change of 5.96 yuan. COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 3358.90 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 92.90 dollars and a weekly change of 8.60 dollars. London gold spot price was 3376.35 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 9.25 dollars and a weekly change of 41.90 dollars [1]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said he never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the accusations. Trump's economic advisor pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit. The New York Fed President Williams said every meeting is a potentially actionable meeting, emphasizing the Fed's independence [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 9261.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a daily change of 117.00 yuan and a weekly change of - 50.00 yuan. COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 38.69 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 1.36 dollars and a weekly change of - 0.01 dollars [1]. - **Important Information**: Import tariffs pushed up US production - side and consumer - side inflation in July. Powell's remarks due to weak employment supply - demand increased the expectation of a September rate cut, but the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI data on September 6th and 11th need to be monitored [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. Due to better - than - expected August manufacturing PMI, it may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: Cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce government bond holdings, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: Kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% in July, will start reducing quarterly government bond purchases from 4000 billion to 2000 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 83.95, with a daily change of 0.44 and a weekly change of - 0.65. The ratio of London gold to London silver was 88.35, with a daily change of 0.71 and a weekly change of 0.76 [1]. - **Other Commodities**: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 67.20 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.86 dollars/barrel [1]. Stock Indices and Exchange Rates - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,800.3499, the S&P 500 was 6,411.3700, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,255.5000, etc [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.2375, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1287, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.2924 [1].