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大摩敲响标普5500点虚破警钟:在波动中应坚持投资优质资产
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 03:01
Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index briefly surpassed the 5500 resistance level due to optimism surrounding potential tariff reductions between the US and China, as well as a shift in Federal Reserve policy, although analysts warn that this breakout is fragile [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - To sustain a breakthrough in the 5600-5650 range, four catalysts need substantial progress: meaningful tariff reductions, a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, long-term interest rates below 4% without recession signals, and upward revisions in earnings expectations [1] - The correlation changes between bonds and stocks make yield trends crucial for market direction, with recent fluctuations in the 10-year US Treasury yield highlighting risks at the end of the cycle [1] - If the 10-year yield drops below 4% due to a compression of term premiums, it could drive stock market gains, while yields exceeding 4.5% may trigger risk-averse behavior [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - A stable labor market is key to avoiding a pessimistic scenario where unemployment rises by 200 basis points; the market has not yet priced in a true labor market recession [1] - Continuous non-farm payroll growth exceeding 100,000 and stable initial jobless claims are necessary to reduce the current 40% probability of recession [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - In an uncertain environment, the company recommends doubling down on high-quality stocks with earnings resilience that are undervalued by the market [1] - The focus should not be on cyclical sectors but rather on companies whose pricing reflects ISM levels below 44 and have historically smaller drawdowns during past recessions [1] - The company suggests overweighting US stocks over international equities, particularly those sensitive to dollar fluctuations, such as European and Japanese stocks [1] - The stability of US corporate earnings, quality factor advantages, and potential currency benefits create relative advantages in this volatile late-cycle period [1] - Investors are encouraged to use market volatility to increase allocations to quality assets, including defensive stocks and selected cyclical stocks, rather than chasing breakouts lacking fundamental confirmation [1]