当地时间周五，受美国政府停摆影响，美国9月非农就业报告暂未公布。美国劳工部长Chavez-Deremer 谈就业形势称，一旦政府重新开门，将立即公布9月就业数据；看到投资活动正在显现。 受美国9月非农报告未公布影响，美股盘前，标普500、纳斯达克100期货抹去稍早的涨幅。现货黄金持 续走高，站上3880美元/盎司，日内涨0.62%。 美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee表示，芝加哥联储估计9月失业率应为4.3%。美联储数据显示，劳动力市 场仍然稳定。Goolsbee对提前大幅降息持谨慎态度。他提到，观察到美联储的双重使命，物价稳定与充 分就业，均在恶化。 当日稍晚，美国参议院民主党成员Warren表示："白宫收集了就业数据。如果特朗普没有什么要隐瞒 的，他应该今天10月3日就公布。" 本周四，由于政府关门，美国首次申请失业救济人数数据也未公布，但劳工部提供了多数州的可下载数 据。高盛对美国各州失业救济申请数据的分析显示，上周美国失业救济申请人数小幅上升。该分析基于 联邦政府停摆期间各州发布的数据。Jan Hatzius等高盛经济学家在致客户的报告中指出： 截至9月27日当周，首次申请失业救济人数升至约22.4万 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of further cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 80,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a potential shift in the labor market dynamics [1][3] - Manufacturing jobs have been particularly affected, with a loss of 12,000 jobs in August and a total decline of 42,000 jobs from May to August, attributed to tariff uncertainties [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a high probability (89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to the weak employment data [1][5] - The labor market's deterioration may lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize labor market stability over inflation targets, as indicated by the comments from analysts [1][5] - The healthcare and leisure sectors showed resilience, while manufacturing, construction, and federal government jobs continued to decline, reflecting broader demand-side weaknesses [4] Group 3 - The market consensus leans towards a 25 basis point cut, but there is debate over the extent of the cut, with some analysts arguing for a larger reduction due to the disappointing employment figures [5][6] - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve is influenced by ongoing political maneuvers, including the appointment of more dovish members to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased last week, indicating stability in the labor market despite a slowdown in hiring, making it harder for many laid-off workers to find new job opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Initial Jobless Claims - For the week ending July 19, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, which was lower than expected [1] - This marks a decline from the eight-month high reached in June [1] Continuing Jobless Claims - For the week ending July 12, the seasonally adjusted continuing jobless claims increased by 4,000 to 1.955 million [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng noted that as immigration continues to slow, the "stability threshold" for job growth—defined as the monthly job additions needed to keep the unemployment rate stable—is expected to decrease from the current estimate of 90,000 to 70,000 by the end of 2025 [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide revenue for the quarter was $4.9 billion, with reported revenue at $4.5 billion, down 3% year over year in constant currency [9][12] - Reported EBITDA for the quarter was $72 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $89 million, representing a decrease of 25% in constant currency year over year [9][10] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased 43% year over year in constant currency, with reported losses per share at $1.44 and adjusted EPS at $0.78 [10][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - On an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand had growth of 1%, while the Experis brand declined by 9% and the Talent Solutions brand grew by 1% [14][15] - The Manpower brand comprised 62% of gross profit, with the Experis brand at 22% and Talent Solutions at 16% [16] - Consolidated gross profit decreased by 5% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, with the Manpower brand reporting flat organic constant currency gross profit year over year [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue in the Americas segment was $1.1 billion, representing a 2% year-over-year increase on a constant currency basis [19] - Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.1 billion, reflecting a 2% decrease in organic constant currency [23] - Revenue in Northern Europe was $794 million, representing a 10% decline in constant currency [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on market share gains by targeting faster-growing industry verticals and leveraging AI for sales targeting [42][43] - The strategy includes moving certain businesses to franchise models to enhance local market growth [46] - The company continues to invest in digital transformation and AI capabilities to support evolving client needs and drive productivity [35][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a stabilization in the U.S. and parts of Europe, with a cautious outlook in Northern Europe due to economic and geopolitical headwinds [9][60] - The company anticipates ongoing stability in most markets and forecasts earnings per share for Q3 to be in the range of $0.77 to $0.87 [32] - Management highlighted the potential for improved market conditions in Northern Europe if economic uncertainties subside [60][62] Other Important Information - The company received multiple accolades, including being named Forbes America's number one temp staffing firm and recognized for sustainability [39] - Free cash flow represented an outflow of $7 million compared to an outflow of $150 million in the prior year, with expectations for strong free cash flow in the second half of the year [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market share gains strategy - The company is targeting faster-growing industry verticals and using AI to enhance sales targeting, resulting in improved revenue performance [42][43] Question: Franchise model expansion - The company is exploring additional markets for the franchise model to enhance local growth and brand deployment [46] Question: U.S. trends and organic growth outlook - The U.S. business saw a 3% decline overall, but the Manpower brand grew by 9%, indicating strong market performance [48][49] Question: Northern Europe revenue trends - Management indicated that Northern Europe is facing challenges due to economic conditions, but expects improvements as the economic environment stabilizes [60][62] Question: Impact of defense spending on industrial sectors - The company anticipates that increased defense and infrastructure spending in Europe will positively impact broader economic conditions and manufacturing sectors [95][96]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the US manufacturing sector remains sluggish in June, with new orders weak and input prices rising, suggesting that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to hinder businesses' planning capabilities [2] - The latest data shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly from May's six-month low of 48.5 to 49.0, marking the fourth consecutive month below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy [2] - Despite economic uncertainties, the labor market remains stable, as evidenced by an unexpected rise in job vacancies in May to the highest level since November of the previous year, with job openings increasing from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing economists' expectations [2] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3342.10 per ounce, down 0.23%, with a daily high of $3354.80 and a low of $3340.70 [3] - The short-term outlook for COMEX gold indicates resistance levels at $3380-$3390 and support levels at $3230-$3240 [3]

Core Insights - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to the highest level since November, indicating stability in the labor market despite economic uncertainties [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available job openings increased from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing all expectations from a Bloomberg survey of economists [1] Labor Market Analysis - Job openings reached 7.77 million, exceeding the previous month's revised figure of 7.4 million [1] - The decline in layoffs suggests a resilient labor market, which may influence economic forecasts positively [1]

Core Insights - The resilience of the American consumer health is strong, indicating a robust economic environment [1] - The leverage levels among consumers are low, suggesting a lower risk of default and financial distress [1] - The labor market remains stable, contributing to overall economic confidence and spending power [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic reiterated the expectation of one interest rate cut this year, while emphasizing the need to consider the latest data before making decisions [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Outlook - Bostic anticipates a rate cut in 2025 and three cuts next year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decrease in initial jobless claims indicates a stable employment growth in the U.S. economy for May, despite rising economic uncertainties due to fluctuating trade policies [1] Labor Market Stability - Initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ending May 17 [1] - Economists had predicted jobless claims to be around 230,000, with expectations of an increase in the coming weeks to a range of 205,000 to 243,000 due to seasonal adjustment difficulties [1] Economic Uncertainty - Despite the uncertainties caused by President Trump's changing trade policies, employers are generally reluctant to lay off workers [1] - Economists forecast an increase in layoffs in the second half of 2025 due to government import tariffs suppressing demand, disrupting supply chains, and exacerbating inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index briefly surpassed the 5500 resistance level due to optimism surrounding potential tariff reductions between the US and China, as well as a shift in Federal Reserve policy, although analysts warn that this breakout is fragile [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - To sustain a breakthrough in the 5600-5650 range, four catalysts need substantial progress: meaningful tariff reductions, a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, long-term interest rates below 4% without recession signals, and upward revisions in earnings expectations [1] - The correlation changes between bonds and stocks make yield trends crucial for market direction, with recent fluctuations in the 10-year US Treasury yield highlighting risks at the end of the cycle [1] - If the 10-year yield drops below 4% due to a compression of term premiums, it could drive stock market gains, while yields exceeding 4.5% may trigger risk-averse behavior [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - A stable labor market is key to avoiding a pessimistic scenario where unemployment rises by 200 basis points; the market has not yet priced in a true labor market recession [1] - Continuous non-farm payroll growth exceeding 100,000 and stable initial jobless claims are necessary to reduce the current 40% probability of recession [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - In an uncertain environment, the company recommends doubling down on high-quality stocks with earnings resilience that are undervalued by the market [1] - The focus should not be on cyclical sectors but rather on companies whose pricing reflects ISM levels below 44 and have historically smaller drawdowns during past recessions [1] - The company suggests overweighting US stocks over international equities, particularly those sensitive to dollar fluctuations, such as European and Japanese stocks [1] - The stability of US corporate earnings, quality factor advantages, and potential currency benefits create relative advantages in this volatile late-cycle period [1] - Investors are encouraged to use market volatility to increase allocations to quality assets, including defensive stocks and selected cyclical stocks, rather than chasing breakouts lacking fundamental confirmation [1]