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专家热议“十五五”扩大消费:新质生产力催生优质需求 多维度提升居民消费率
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 14:57
Core Viewpoint - Expanding consumption is crucial for stabilizing growth in the short term and promoting high-quality development in the long term, necessitating various measures to enhance consumer quality and capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Current Consumption Market Trends - The consumption market is characterized by "stability and innovation," with a gradual stabilization in growth rates, as evidenced by a 4.0% increase in retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025, up from 3.5% in the same period last year [2]. - The core growth driver is service consumption, with sectors like travel, vacation, cultural entertainment, and health sports emerging as key contributors, projected to grow by 6.2% in 2024, surpassing the overall retail sales growth by 2.7 percentage points [3]. - New consumption dynamics are emerging, including strong growth in digital and green consumption, with physical goods retail expected to rise by 5.7% in 2025 and new energy vehicle sales anticipated to exceed 10 million units for two consecutive years [3]. Group 2: Quality of Consumption Demand - High-quality growth is driven by high-quality consumption demand, which is defined as consumption that provides higher marginal utility, allowing consumers to pay premium prices and enhancing corporate profitability [4]. - Traditional fiscal and monetary policies may expand demand but do not cultivate quality demand, potentially leading to risks such as increased government debt and lower investment returns [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges in Increasing Resident Consumption Rate - Increasing the resident consumption rate is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, facing challenges such as insufficient consumer capacity, disparities in social security, and a lack of high-quality service supply [6]. - Recommendations for government action include tax reforms to shift revenue sharing from production to consumption, enhancing consumer environments, and improving income distribution to boost property income and labor compensation [7].