第 1页 共 5页 2026 年生活经济报告-北大国发院 一、研究背景评估 二、范围与边界确认 三、核心摘要提炼 四、关键数据抓取与呈现 五、风险与机遇诊断 第 2页 共 5页 一、研究背景评估 | 项目 | 说明 | | --- | --- | | 研究机构 | 北京大学国家发展研究院课题组 | | | 中国顶尖智库型研究机构，在经济学、管理学等领域具有深厚的学术积淀和政策影响力。 | | | 1. 学术背景：依托北京大学学术资源，研究团队具备严谨的理论框架和丰富的政策研究经验。 | | | 2. 数据来源多元：整合艾瑞咨询、世界银行、小红书平台等多方数据，引用权威学术文献和政策文件。 | | 权威性说明 | 3. 智库地位：长期为国家宏观决策提供智力支持，在消费经济、数字经济领域有持续跟踪研究。 | | | 4. 独立性：报告基于学术视角，结论客观，具有较高的公信力。 | | 样本数量 | 以小红书为典型样本，但未披露具体样本量；主要采用案例分析和宏观数据引用（如艾瑞咨询调研覆盖消费者近 90%关注 | | | 新品等）。 | | 研究时间范围 | 报告发布于 2026 年 1 月，数据更新至 2025 ...

消费是最终需求，是我国经济增长的重要引擎。从国内看，我国经济已进入高质量发展阶段，多年来依靠大规模要素投入的传统发展模式发生了根本性变 化，物质资本投资回报率呈现下降趋势，经济发展必然要转向更多以内需特别是消费需求支撑的阶段。从国际看，世界百年变局加速演进，保护主义、单 边主义抬头，逆全球化趋势加剧，需要更多依靠国内市场实现经济发展，提振消费是我国应对国际环境深刻变化的必然选择。 提振消费，既是稳增长的重要抓手，也是坚持政策支持和改革创新并举的重要领域。在实践中，要区分"释放当期消费潜力"与"增强长期消费能力"两大目 标，即政策调整可着力释放短期消费潜力，但长期消费能力的增强必须依靠制度变革。一方面，深入实施提振消费专项行动，进一步优化"两新"政策的支 持范围、补贴标准和实施机制，加强财税、金融、产业、投资等政策与消费政策的协同，持续放大政策效能。另一方面，清理消费领域不合理限制措施， 以放宽准入、业态融合为重点扩大服务消费，建立健全适应消费新业态新模式新场景的管理办法；促进高质量充分就业，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，优 化收入分配结构，增强居民特别是中低收入群体的消费能力；稳步推进基本公共服务均等化，完善教育 ...

进入2026年，最扎心的问题还是那个——房价到底了没？还会不会跌？ 咱们先把人口账算清楚。老龄化越来越深，适龄购房的人越来越少，这是改变不了的现实。全国范围内 的房价继续向下调整，基本是大概率事件。一线城市虽然靠着产业和资源还能吸人，但这种人口回流要 转化成实实在在的买房需求，没个三五年很难见效。短期看，一线可能扛跌，但全国大盘的压力，跑不 掉。 那房价一直跌，成交量能不能稳住？现在市场上确实出现了"以价换量"的苗头。2026年1月，全国重点 13城二手房成交810万平方米，环比涨了16%，同比暴涨33%，比2025年的月均还高了18%。北京、上 海、广州、深圳的二手房都挺热闹，上海更是创了近五年同期新高。 但这里有个坑，千万别踩——成交热的只是二手房，新房完全是另一副面孔。同期全国重点50城的新建 商品住宅成交面积，环比暴跌32%，同比也少了20%。问题就来了：二手房成交再火，对地产链的拉动 能有多大？说白了，二手房顶多带动装修、家电、中介，但新房才能拉动土地、建材、施工这一整条长 链条。只要新房起不来，地产链想企稳，门儿都没有。 地产趴着起不来，那内需消费能不能顶上？难度也不小。 耐用品这块，2025年有 ...

今天分享的是：西南证券：新经济、新动能行业洞察系列（二）：新消费演进中的价格与产业洞察 报告共计：26页 本报告为西南证券新经济新动能行业洞察系列第二篇，聚焦新消费演进对宏观经济、价格体系及产业发展的多维影响，指出新消费以信 息技术为驱动、以品质化个性化为导向，是内需大循环的战略支柱，其战略地位随政策持续加码不断提升。 新消费成为宏观经济结构升级的核心动力，2023年以来最终消费支出对GDP贡献率稳居首位，2025年我国消费对GDP拉动率稳定在3%左 右，显著高于发达经济体。服务消费增长动能突出，2025年服务零售额增速超商品零售额1.7个百分点，商品零售中通讯器材、文化办公 用品等新消费品类增速领跑，旅游、观影等服务消费呈现节日爆发式增长特征。同时，新消费推动传统职业迭代，2025年新增多个消费 升级相关职业与工种，灵活就业成为就业增收重要途径，且灵活就业群体消费倾向更高，形成就业与消费的良性互动。 新消费推动CPI权重重构与价格结构性修复，2021-2025年居住、交通通信CPI权重显著提升，食品烟酒、生活用品及服务权重下降，反映 居民消费从基础刚需向品质升级转变。CPI品类价格呈现分化修复态势，衣着、医 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation and growth of service consumption in China, highlighting the shift from product-centric to service-oriented spending, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival, with a focus on quality and innovation in service offerings [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Supply Side - The demand for services is characterized by diversity, personalization, and quality, which drives continuous innovation in supply [1]. - New technologies and smart solutions are enhancing service experiences, particularly in sectors like cruise economy, inbound tourism, and winter sports [1]. Group 2: Service Consumption Demand - Service consumption has rapidly increased, transitioning to a balanced focus on both goods and services [2]. - Key areas of service demand include essential services like elderly care, childcare, and domestic help, alongside rapidly growing sectors such as tourism, wellness, and entertainment, especially during the nine-day Spring Festival holiday [2]. Group 3: Potential Growth Areas - The nine key service sectors identified by the State Council are crucial for service consumption and economic development, expected to become new growth points in the service economy [3]. - Understanding service consumption involves recognizing its role in fulfilling emotional and experiential needs, such as leisure and relaxation, as well as practical needs like domestic assistance [3][4]. Group 4: Connection Between Service Consumption and Livelihood - Essential services like elderly care, childcare, and domestic help are closely tied to daily life and are foundational to service consumption [5]. - Policies aimed at supporting and regulating these sectors are necessary to expand supply while ensuring quality, which in turn can stimulate enterprise engagement and better meet consumer needs through data-driven insights [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the characteristics of consumption in China by 2025, which include the expansion and upgrading of goods consumption, improvement of service consumption to benefit the public, and increasingly diverse consumption scenarios [1] Group 2 - By 2025, the sales of related goods from the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy are expected to reach 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people, with a significant number of green and smart products entering households [3] - The projected automobile sales for 2025 are 34.4 million units, while the sales of home appliances and communication equipment are expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan each [6] - The service retail sector is anticipated to grow by 5.5% due to the improvement of the "1+N" policy system for service consumption and the implementation of actions to enhance service consumption [7] - Over 60 events will be organized to promote the "Buy in China" and "Export from China" brands, including high-quality consumption months and international consumption seasons, along with pilot projects for international consumption environment construction and optimization of tax refund policies for departing tourists [8]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience with a GDP growth rate of 5%, outperforming global averages and indicating a strong recovery despite a "non-symmetric recovery" characterized by concentrated growth engines and a need for enhanced internal momentum [1][2]. Economic Performance and Structure - The 5% growth rate in 2025 is significantly higher than the global average of 2.7%, with developed economies at 1.7% and developing countries (excluding China) at 3.7% [2]. - Estimated per capita GDP for 2025 is approximately $13,900, nearing the high-income threshold set by the World Bank [2]. Growth Dynamics - Economic growth in 2025 was primarily driven by exports and equipment upgrades, with exports increasing by 5.5% and investment in equipment rising by 11.8% [3]. - Other sectors such as fixed asset investment, consumption, real estate, and traditional manufacturing showed insufficient performance, highlighting current economic weaknesses [3]. Transition to Balanced Growth - The shift from a "two-wheel drive" model (focused on exports and new technologies) to a "four-wheel drive" model in 2026 is anticipated, aiming for more balanced economic growth [4]. - Key areas for policy focus include: - Fixed asset investment, which saw a decline of 3.8% in 2025, is expected to recover [4]. - Service consumption, with an emphasis on unlocking its potential [4]. - Real estate stability, focusing on inventory reduction and market health [4]. - Traditional manufacturing improvements to enhance competition and supply-demand balance [5]. Key Observational Windows - Investors should monitor three critical time points: - Early March for the National People's Congress, which will set economic growth targets and policy directions [6]. - Late March for initial local investment trends, particularly in construction and industrial sectors [6]. - The second quarter for consumer spending indicators, as policies to stimulate consumption will be implemented [7]. Service Consumption Focus - Service consumption is identified as a key area for growth, with potential policy support in five directions: - Fiscal resources directed towards service consumption [8]. - Implementation of staggered paid leave to enhance consumer experience [8]. - Expansion of inbound consumption, with significant market potential [8]. - Utilization of new technologies like AI to create innovative service scenarios [9]. - Income improvements through pension reforms to boost consumer spending [9]. Long-term Growth Opportunities - Key long-term opportunities include: - Accelerated industrialization in developing countries, enhancing demand for Chinese exports [11]. - Globalization of Chinese enterprises, with a focus on cross-border supply chain management [11]. - AI application across various sectors, creating new business models and industries [11]. - Increased consumer spending rates, with potential reforms in income distribution [12]. Market Dynamics - The stock market is expected to transition from a phase of pricing based on expectations to one based on actual economic fundamentals, indicating a shift in investment logic [12][13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing significance of service consumption in China, highlighting that by 2025, per capita service consumption expenditure will account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure, indicating a need for quality upgrades in service consumption [1] Group 1: Changes in Supply and Demand - The demand for services is characterized by diversification, personalization, and quality, which drives supply innovation [1] - The supply side is innovating under policy guidance and technological empowerment, leading to new business models and enriched content in areas like cruise economy, inbound tourism, and winter sports consumption [1] - Service consumption is transitioning from a focus on goods to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services [1] Group 2: Key Areas of Service Consumption - Key service consumption areas include essential services like elderly care, childcare, and domestic services, which are in high demand [2] - Potential growth areas such as tourism, wellness, and entertainment are rapidly developing, especially during the nine-day Spring Festival holiday [2] - The nine key service areas identified by the State Council are crucial for service consumption and economic development, expected to become new growth points in the service economy [2] Group 3: Integration of Service Consumption and Livelihood - Service consumption in areas like elderly care, childcare, and domestic services is closely linked to daily life and is foundational to the service sector [4] - Policies should support and guide these sectors to expand supply while ensuring quality, which can stimulate enterprise engagement [4] - Companies can leverage big data to better understand consumer needs and provide more precise services [4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, Shandong Province will focus on six key initiatives to promote consumption, stabilize the market, and enhance people's livelihoods during the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 1: Consumer Promotion Initiatives - The province will launch brand promotion activities to enhance consumer engagement, including optimizing the trade-in policy and emphasizing offline retail, with the "Good Products Shandong, Business Worldwide" brand [3] - Over 500 events will be held throughout the year, such as the Qilu Service Consumption Season, to boost service consumption in areas like dining, accommodation, and housekeeping [3] Group 2: New Consumption Development - A "Double Hundred" initiative will be implemented to promote new consumption trends, including IP consumption and "AI + consumption," making shopping more fashionable and convenient [3] - Support will be provided for Jinan and Qingdao to develop into international consumption center cities, creating shopping districts that cater to foreign visitors [3] Group 3: E-commerce and Trade Integration - The province aims to expand the scale of e-commerce platforms and businesses, enhancing rural e-commerce to ensure rural residents can access urban goods and promote local agricultural products [4] - A focus on integrating domestic and foreign trade will be established, nurturing enterprises that can operate in both markets, allowing consumers to access quality export products domestically [4] Group 4: Commercial Network Improvement - Upgrading urban commercial circles and enhancing county-level commercial standards will be prioritized, creating convenient living circles where essential goods and services are easily accessible [4] - Strengthening the supply of daily necessities will ensure a stable foundation for the consumer market, alleviating concerns for residents [4]

Core Viewpoint - The service consumption in China is expected to reach 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure by 2025, indicating a significant shift towards service-oriented spending, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival holiday [1]. Group 1: Changes in Supply Side - The demand for services is characterized by diversification, personalization, and quality, which drives continuous innovation in supply [1][2]. - New technologies and smart solutions are enhancing service offerings, particularly in areas like cruise economy, inbound tourism, and winter sports consumption, thereby improving consumer experience [1]. Group 2: Focus Areas of Service Consumption - Service consumption has shifted from being product-centric to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with strong demand in essential areas like elderly care, childcare, and domestic services [2]. - Potential growth areas include tourism, wellness, and entertainment, which are expected to see rapid development, especially during the nine-day Spring Festival holiday [2]. Group 3: Key Growth Areas - The nine key service sectors identified in the government's plan are crucial for the growth of service consumption and the overall service economy [3]. - Understanding service consumption is essential, as it fulfills both functional and emotional needs, enhancing consumer satisfaction through experiences like travel and leisure [3][4]. Group 4: Integration with Livelihood - Service sectors such as elderly care, childcare, and domestic services are closely linked to daily life and are foundational to service consumption [5]. - Policies aimed at supporting and regulating these sectors are necessary to expand supply while ensuring quality, which in turn can stimulate enterprise engagement and better meet consumer needs through data-driven insights [5].