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学习笔记|扩大消费,以消费提振畅通经济循环
特约评论员 熊夏柠 近日,国家发展改革委已会同财政部,向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以 旧换新资金,至此,全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。 数据显示,今年1~8月,全国共有3.3亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴,带动相关商品销售额超过2万亿 元;限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材、文化办公用品、家具、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长 28.4%、22.3%、22.0%、21.1%,支撑社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%。 可见,以旧换新对提振我国消费起到了非常积极的作用,以旧换新政策也是国家真金白银地支持消费、 扩大消费的重要举措。并且,政策实施的具体实践显示,民众对这项着力扩大消费的政策反响良好,反 应强烈。 党的二十大报告指出,要着力扩大内需,增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关 键作用。 2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出,大力提振消费、提高投资效益,全方位扩大国内需求。 2025年的政府工作报告指出,要强化宏观政策民生导向。坚持以人民为中心,经济政策的着力点更多转 向惠民生、促消费,以消费提振畅通经济循环,以消费升级引领产业升级,在保障和改善民生中打造新 ...
学习笔记|扩大消费 以消费提振畅通经济循环
数据显示,今年1~8月,全国共有3.3亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴,带动相关商品销售额超过2万亿 元;限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材、文化办公用品、家具、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长 28.4%、22.3%、22.0%、21.1%,支撑社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%。 特约评论员熊夏柠 近日,国家发展改革委已会同财政部,向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以 旧换新资金,至此,全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。 今年9月,商务部等9部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》(以下简称"若干措施"),围绕财 税支持、供给优化、平台建设等五方面提出19项举措,全面激发服务消费新增量。 今年国庆中秋"双节"已经到来,这一系列措施的发布可谓是正当其时。若干措施提出,实施服务消费提 质惠民行动,持续深化"购在中国"品牌打造,开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动。开展消费新业态新模 式新场景试点城市建设。积极发展首发经济,推动创新和丰富服务消费场景,支持优质消费资源与知名 IP跨界合作,打造一批商旅文体健融合的消费新场景,培育一批新型消费龙头企业。 系列措施同时也要求,结合实际、因地制宜延长热门 ...
沪铜市场周报:原料紧张消费提振,沪铜或将有所支撑-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is supported by tight raw materials and boosted consumption. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply growth and demand boost, with positive industry expectations and gradual inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 3.2% and an amplitude of 4.09%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Incident**: Mining giant Freeport reported that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident, causing casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine suspended operations [6]. - **Domestic Meeting**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association held a meeting, firmly opposing the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry [6]. - **Fundamentals - Ore End**: The TC fee continued to operate in the negative range, the supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the port inventory of copper concentrates might decline due to the decrease in raw material imports. The cost - support logic for copper prices remained [6]. - **Supply**: In the peak consumption season and with relatively firm copper prices, smelters were still enthusiastic about production. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials limiting production capacity, domestic copper production would maintain a slight growth trend [6]. - **Demand**: The central government would implement a more active consumption - expansion policy, and with the help of the traditional peak consumption season, the expectations of the copper industry were repaired, and the starting situation of downstream copper products would significantly improve [6]. - **Inventory**: With positive consumption expectations and the development of industries such as power and new energy in the application end, the demand for refined copper might significantly increase, and the previously slightly accumulated social inventory might gradually decrease [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of September 26, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,560 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 112,498 lots [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 82,485 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,475 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [17]. - **Bill of Lading Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [23]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a decrease of 325 lots compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: As of September 26, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility [28]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6986, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0510 [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate Price**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 72,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,340 yuan/ton [31]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Ore Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 7.78%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.27% [34]. - **Scrap - Refined Copper Price Difference**: As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper price difference (including tax) was 2,764.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,063.8 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Copper Ore Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly global production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared with June [39]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.44%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared with June [41]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared with July, a decline of 8.17%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 407.95 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.86 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,225 tons compared with last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,282 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,281 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 145,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons [53]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with July, a decline of 10.42%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.38% [59]. - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.5% and 14% respectively. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 6.030919 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342,912,327,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [70]. 3.7 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of July 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [75][76].
刘世锦:中国资本市场资金的增量来源或已发生转折性变化
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-26 05:12
Core Viewpoint - China has accumulated a significant amount of social net wealth, and low bank savings rates suggest that net wealth can only grow through capital markets, indicating a transformative change in the sources of capital market funding compared to the past [1][10]. Economic Growth and Challenges - China's economic recovery post-COVID-19 has shown a generally positive trend, achieving growth targets of 5.2% and 5% in the past two years, placing it among the leading global economies [3]. - The macroeconomic environment faces increasing pressure from declining demand, with the GDP deflator index experiencing negative growth for nine consecutive quarters [3]. - The primary challenge during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is not insufficient investment but rather insufficient consumption, which is significantly deviated from both international averages and typical economies at similar development stages [3][4]. Structural Consumption Issues - The structural bias in consumption is largely attributed to insufficient service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, social security, and elderly care [4]. - The disparity in consumption is exacerbated by various factors, including low levels of public services, urbanization lag, income inequality, and a long-standing policy focus on investment over consumption [4]. Proposed Structural Reforms - To effectively expand consumption, three key areas for structural reform are identified: 1. Addressing housing shortages for new urban residents, particularly migrant workers, through government initiatives to convert unsold housing into affordable options [7]. 2. Reforming the rural pension system to significantly increase pension income for rural residents, thereby unlocking consumption potential for a large segment of the population [7]. 3. Promoting a new wave of urbanization by facilitating the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, enhancing rural residents' income [7]. Financial Market Development - A strong financial market is essential for supporting both consumption and manufacturing sectors, with a focus on establishing robust monetary and capital markets [9][10]. - The capital market is expected to enter a new development phase, with a shift in funding sources and an emphasis on nurturing globally competitive large tech firms and innovative SMEs [10]. - The strategy includes balancing imports and exports, promoting the use of the RMB in international trade, and enhancing the international status of the RMB as a reserve currency [10].
充分释放宏观政策综合效应
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-20 22:11
Core Viewpoint - The combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy is aimed at enhancing people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and boosting economic growth, as emphasized in recent central government meetings [1][6]. Fiscal Policy and Investment - As of the end of August, the government has allocated approximately 420 billion yuan, which has driven sales of various goods exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan [2]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement has been fully allocated, with plans for a fourth batch in October, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [2]. - The Ministry of Finance has arranged 1.5 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds over the past two years to support effective investment [2][4]. Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The M2 money supply reached 331.98 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5]. - The total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the previous year [5]. - Structural monetary policy tools have been implemented to support key areas such as technology innovation, consumption expansion, and small and micro enterprises [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain continuity and stability, with a focus on promoting high-quality economic development and addressing deep-seated issues [6]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has provided strong financial support for resolving hidden debts, with 1.9 trillion yuan issued for this purpose by the end of August [5].
划定“小目标”、实现“双提升” 轻工业发展“路线图”来了
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-09-19 03:50
Core Viewpoint - The "Light Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to provide a clear roadmap for the development of the light industry, focusing on stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and improving livelihoods [1][4]. Group 1: Development Goals - The plan sets several key objectives for the light industry from 2025 to 2026, including steady growth in key sectors, stable business operations, rapid growth in emerging fields such as smart home products and elderly and infant goods, the launch of 300 upgraded innovative products, and the cultivation of 10 industry clusters with a scale exceeding 100 billion [4][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Strategy - The core strategy of the plan is to drive market vitality through a dual approach of "optimizing supply" and "expanding consumption" [7]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of light industry as a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, linking numerous enterprises and jobs to daily life [6]. Group 3: Supply Optimization Measures - Key measures for optimizing supply include accelerating product innovation through AI analysis of consumer needs, enhancing quality and safety by revising national standards, and building brand influence in sectors like home appliances and cosmetics [9][11]. - The plan aims to complete revisions of 10 mandatory national standards within two years and update 300 industry standards annually [9]. Group 4: Consumption Expansion Initiatives - The plan outlines initiatives to promote consumption, such as implementing trade-in policies for home appliances and promoting green and smart products suitable for the elderly and children [11]. - It also focuses on developing new categories like smart home appliances and health products, leveraging online platforms for supply-demand matching, and fostering new business models that integrate AI with consumption [11].
轻工业稳增长方案为“强供给、促消费、惠民生”提供行动指南 有何“新”亮点?
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-09-19 03:44
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Light Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", outlining development goals and a roadmap for the light industry to stabilize growth, promote consumption, and benefit people's livelihoods [1] Group 1: Goals and Strategies - The plan aims for steady growth in key industries, stable business operations, rapid growth in emerging sectors like smart home products and elderly and infant goods, the launch of 300 upgraded innovative products, and the cultivation of 10 industry clusters each exceeding 100 billion yuan [1] - The five main tasks include strengthening supply, promoting consumption, stabilizing exports, optimizing ecology, and increasing momentum for "dual improvements" in quality and quantity within the light industry [4] Group 2: Supply Optimization - The plan includes measures such as accelerating product innovation through AI analysis of demand, enhancing quality and safety by revising national standards, and building brand influence by selecting brands for the "China Consumer Famous Products Array" [6][8] - Specific actions include implementing a replacement policy for home appliances and promoting green, smart products suitable for the elderly and children [8] Group 3: Consumption Expansion - The plan emphasizes increasing new categories around health, elderly care, and infant products, and developing new business models like "AI + consumption" to achieve quick responses and personalized customization [8][10] Group 4: Export Stability and Ecological Optimization - The plan supports leading companies in home appliances and furniture to accelerate global branding and enhance cooperation with regions like Southeast Asia and Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative [11] - It also aims to cultivate leading enterprises in sectors like home appliances and batteries, promote collaboration between large and small enterprises, and guide businesses to relocate to central and western regions [13] Group 5: Transformation and Upgrading - The plan focuses on digital transformation in industries like furniture and footwear, promoting green development through low-carbon technologies and recyclable materials, and pushing the industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [16] - The light industry's global export share exceeds 30%, maintaining a leading position worldwide, with an emphasis on optimizing trade structures and strengthening public services to consolidate advantages [17]
服务消费成为扩大消费重要动力 一组数据带你看
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-09-11 08:32
Core Insights - The service trade fair is a significant platform for the opening, innovation, and cooperation in service trade, and it plays an important role in expanding service consumption [1] - China's consumption pattern is gradually shifting towards a balance between goods and service consumption [1] Group 1: Market Growth - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's consumption market remains the second largest globally, with an average annual growth of 5.5% in social retail sales over the past four years, expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - Service consumption is growing faster than goods consumption, becoming a key driver for expanding overall consumption [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is projected to be 9.6%, with 4.6 yuan spent on services for every 10 yuan spent by consumers [1] - In the first seven months of this year, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the proportion of service consumption continuing to rise [1] Group 3: Future Policies - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, a series of policies aimed at unleashing the potential of service consumption will continue, including opening up to foreign quality services and reducing restrictive measures domestically to enrich service supply [1] - Targeted new measures are also expected to be introduced [1]
降低居民和经营主体信贷成本—— 财政金融加力提振消费
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-10 22:09
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate consumer demand and support service sector financing, thereby enhancing economic circulation and improving living standards [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The new subsidy policy offers a 1% annual interest subsidy on personal consumption loans and service sector loans, with the central and provincial governments covering 90% and 10% of the subsidy costs, respectively [2][3]. - The policy is expected to leverage 100 billion yuan in subsidy funds to potentially drive 1 trillion yuan in loans towards consumer spending and service sector supply [2][3]. - This marks the first time the central government has implemented interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, highlighting the importance placed on expanding consumption [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The policy targets both supply and demand sides, enhancing consumer capacity while expanding effective supply, particularly in service consumption [3][4]. - Key areas supported by the personal consumption loan subsidy include household vehicles, elderly care, and education, while the service sector loan subsidy focuses on dining, health, and elderly care services [3][4]. - Service consumption in China has significant growth potential, with per capita service consumption expected to grow at an annual rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [3]. Group 3: Financial Institution Role - Financial institutions are crucial in implementing the subsidy policy, acting as a bridge to lower credit costs for residents and service sector entities [6][7]. - The policy outlines specific banks responsible for processing these loans, including six major state-owned banks and 21 national banks for service sector loans [6][7]. - Banks are expected to enhance their services and ensure the timely and efficient delivery of the subsidy benefits to consumers and businesses [6][7].
张军扩:大力提高社会保障水平是解决消费率结构性偏低的关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-30 05:47
Core Viewpoint - The low consumer spending rate in China is a long-standing issue that needs to be addressed to promote sustainable high-quality economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Policies and Trends - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to boost consumer demand, with a particular focus on enhancing consumption as a priority task this year [1]. - From January to July this year, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with retail sales excluding automobiles growing by 5.3% and service retail sales rising by 5.2% [1]. Group 2: Structural Issues in Consumer Spending - China's consumer spending rate is significantly lower compared to international standards, and it has shown a trend of rising over the past 15 years after an initial decline [2]. - The low consumer spending rate is attributed to insufficient social security, unstable expectations, and weak consumer confidence, compounded by pressures from housing, healthcare, education, and retirement [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Enhancing Consumer Demand - To effectively release consumer demand potential during the 14th Five-Year Plan, policies should focus on three areas: 1. Implementing counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies to support service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and retirement [2][3]. 2. Increasing social security and public service levels for low-income groups to enhance safety and consumer confidence [2]. 3. Strengthening supply-side policies by reducing entry barriers and optimizing regulatory policies to expand the supply of quality services [3].