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传统消费龙头价值修复
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国泰海通|食饮:假期消费回暖,白酒符合预期
Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes prioritizing growth while focusing on undervalued traditional consumer leaders with strong long-term growth certainty, highlighting a recovery in consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with both volume and price showing positive trends [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The performance advantages of growth targets in beverages, snacks, and food raw materials continue, while expectations for liquor are being revised upward, with some clearing out of inventory [2]. - The consumer landscape is evolving with demographic changes, channel fragmentation, and category innovation, sustaining new consumption trends, particularly in the beverage, snack, and food raw material sectors, which exhibit structural growth characteristics and comparative performance advantages [2]. - During the holiday period, travel volume exceeded expectations, and retail dining showed promising signs, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in travel volume during the first six days of the holiday, and key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin experiencing a rise in both volume and price [2]. Group 2: Liquor Market Insights - Demand for liquor improved during the peak season, aligning with expectations, with an estimated year-on-year decline of about 20% in liquor sales during the dual holiday period, consistent with pre-holiday forecasts [3]. - High-end liquor benefited from demand driven by gifting scenarios and price reductions, showing significant improvement in sales volume, while mid-range liquor saw better performance due to improved banquet scenarios and price reductions [3]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in industry confidence as external pressures ease and economic activity expectations improve, with potential adjustments in sector reports expected by Q3 2025 [3]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Outlook - Growth remains the main theme, with beverage leaders maintaining structural prosperity driven by major products, while companies in food raw materials and health products are expected to sustain high growth or accelerate sequentially [3]. - The snack sector continues to show growth potential through category and channel innovation, while traditional consumer leaders like China Foods exhibit both long-term growth certainty and low valuations, presenting opportunities for value recovery [3].