晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|牛市的规律与洼地》投资策略 1、国内：7 月财政收支均回升，土地成交小幅转冷。7 月财政收入累计 同比回正，当月同比回升转正，税收收入同比回升，非税收入同比继续回 落，财政支出同比回升。7 月全国政府性基金收入、国有土地使用权出让 收入同比回落，全国政府性基金支出同比回落。2、国际：鲍威尔发言加 大市场押注降息概率。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发言"放鸽"，市 场加大押注 9 月降息的力度。截至 2025/8/23，美联储 2025 年 9 月降息 25 基点的概率为 75%，维持现有利率的概率为 25%。3、行业配置建议： 赛点 2.0 第三阶段攻坚不易，波折难免，重视恒生互联网。红利回撤常在 有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于 AI 产业趋势的 进展，而 AI 产业趋势的进展又取决于 AI 应用端和消费端的突破。消费板 块投资的核心因子是估值，在当前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化 下复苏周期抬头，以宏观叙事而对消费过分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒 生互联网。 风险提示：地缘冲突超预期，海外通胀持续性超预期，流动性收紧超预期。 《金工|量化择时周 ...

中宠股份8月22日股价报60.78元，较前一交易日下跌0.98%。当日开盘价为61.05元，最高触及61.25元， 最低下探60.00元，成交量为8.76万手，成交金额达5.29亿元。 风险提示：投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 中宠股份主营业务为宠物食品的研发、生产和销售，产品涵盖宠物干粮、湿粮、零食等品类。公司产品 销往全球多个国家和地区，海外业务收入占比超过60%。2025年上半年公司实现营业收入24.32亿元， 同比增长24.32%；归母净利润2.03亿元，同比增长42.56%。 公司近期参加了第27届亚洲宠物展，展示了多款宠物食品新品。作为中国唯一在美国、加拿大设有宠物 零食厂的企业，中宠股份计划2025年下半年建成加拿大第二条产线，2026年建成美国第二工厂，以强化 北美本土化供应能力。 8月22日主力资金净流出5059.65万元，占流通市值的0.27%。近五日主力资金累计净流入1610.13万元， 占流通市值的0.09%。 ...

Core Insights - The brand "零嘴福" is rapidly emerging in the competitive snack market, backed by a recent A-round financing of 50 million yuan, indicating strong strategic planning and capital support [1][5]. Business Model - "零嘴福" employs a "bulk purchase" strategy to reduce costs, offering high-cost performance snacks with over 2000 product varieties, including imported snacks and popular domestic items [3]. - The company has established direct partnerships with quality suppliers, enhancing product quality and price advantages, supported by an efficient logistics system that ensures quick turnover and reduced inventory pressure [3]. Capital Market Recognition - Following the 50 million yuan A-round financing, the company plans to expand its store network from over 800 to 1500 locations in the next two years, enhance digital infrastructure, and invest in product development to create proprietary brands [5]. - As a publicly listed company, "零嘴福" benefits from high financial transparency and governance standards, which enhance trust among consumers and partners [5]. Marketing Strategy - The company utilizes social media for direct interaction with young consumers, employing a content team to create engaging snack reviews and creative consumption ideas, effectively building a significant follower base [7]. Market Positioning - "零嘴福" positions itself as a "high-quality affordable snack expert," balancing product quality with competitive pricing, and maintains a monthly product turnover rate of approximately 15% to keep the shopping experience fresh [8]. - The brand targets urban professionals and young families aged 25-40, who have strong purchasing power and a desire for quality living [8]. Future Outlook - If "零嘴福" maintains strategic focus and prioritizes store profitability and user experience during expansion, it has the potential to grow from a regional brand to a national snack chain giant [10]. - The company may leverage capital for mergers and acquisitions to quickly expand market share, while enhancing digital capabilities to create new growth opportunities through an integrated online and offline retail model [10].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months compared to the market index [49]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, which is an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the same month last year, although it represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June [2][13]. - The growth rate of commodity retail continues to decline, while the growth rate of catering revenue has slightly rebounded compared to the previous month [17]. - The performance of various consumer goods categories shows that home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, have seen significant growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a total of 38,780 billion yuan. The growth rate improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year but decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [2][13]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, up from 0.1% in June [14]. Segment Analysis - Among 16 categories of goods, three categories (oil and petroleum products, automobiles, and building and decoration materials) experienced negative growth, while the remaining categories showed positive growth. Notably, home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, demonstrated remarkable growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. - Essential goods such as grain and oil (+8.6%), daily necessities (+8.2%), and traditional Chinese and Western medicines (+0.1%) showed varying growth rates, with grain and oil experiencing a slight decline [21][23]. Online Retail Performance - From January to July 2025, the cumulative online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, accounting for 30.55% of total retail sales of consumer goods [40][42]. - The online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 70,790 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.3%, and specific categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8%, respectively [40][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverages, social services, and retail, highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, baby-related products, and domestic cosmetics brands due to favorable policies and market conditions [46][47]. - In the retail sector, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to increase, and domestic beauty brands are gaining market share, making them potential investment targets [47].

Core Insights - Kuaishou's platform has over 100 million monthly active users in the college demographic (ages 18-24), redefining campus marketing strategies through engaging and value-driven actions [1][7] - The college demographic serves as a significant social influence for brands, acting as "social spokespersons" and contributing to brand growth and reputation [8][9] - Early engagement with students can mitigate talent mismatch risks, as demonstrated by ASUS's "Shuoshi Student" program [10] Group 1: User Demographics - The college demographic is Kuaishou's second-largest user segment, with an average of over 100 million monthly users in the first half of 2025, peaking during summer and Chinese New Year [1][18] - The user base is predominantly composed of undergraduates and associate degree holders, with TGI scores exceeding 280 and 290 respectively [23][24] - The demographic shows high activity during late-night hours, with a TGI score over 220 during the early morning [25] Group 2: Consumption Patterns - An average of 14 million college users make purchases on Kuaishou monthly, with a consumption peak in the fourth quarter [2][31] - In the first five months of 2025, the number of users making five or more purchases increased by 13.3%, while brand product spending rose by 70% year-on-year [2][31] - Digital products are the largest expenditure category, with significant spending during key periods such as back-to-school and holiday seasons [32][36] Group 3: Content Ecosystem - The college demographic primarily engages with entertainment content, with high search volumes for movies, games, and variety shows [2][26] - Content creators in this demographic focus on gaming, food, and short dramas, aligning their creative interests with their search behaviors [2][26] - Kuaishou's CAMPUS strategy encourages student participation in content creation, fostering brand engagement through co-creation [2][31] Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Kuaishou's marketing strategy emphasizes content co-creation, event-driven marketing, and leveraging consumer interest during peak shopping periods [2][31] - The strategy aims to create a win-win situation for brands and college users by activating their interests and facilitating brand interactions [2][31] - Brands are encouraged to utilize campus events and student influencers to enhance their visibility and engagement within this demographic [2][31]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with the successful advancement of the Alashan Phase II project for Boyuan Chemical [4][7] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [4][5] - The core product prices and gross margins for soda ash declined, but the increase in production and sales volume helped mitigate the impact of price drops [5][6] Group 2 - The company has successfully acquired multiple electronic gas projects, enhancing its position in the electronic gas market [9][10] - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, while net profit decreased by 13.44% [9][10] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 26.37%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, but operating cash flow increased significantly by 84.34% [10] Group 3 - 361 Degrees reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 860 million yuan, also up 8.6% [12][13] - The e-commerce segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.82 billion yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year [13][14] - The company opened 49 new stores, enhancing its retail presence and brand image [15] Group 4 - Tencent Holdings reported Q2 2025 revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit of 55.6 billion yuan, up 17% [17][18] - The gaming segment experienced a robust 22% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [18][19] - The marketing services business grew by 20% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for advertising within the WeChat ecosystem [19] Group 5 - The report indicates that the chromium salt industry is experiencing significant growth, with Zhihua Co. achieving H1 2025 revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [29][30] - The company’s gross margin improved to 28.81%, up 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management [29][30] - The effective release of production capacity contributed to a notable increase in sales volume, particularly in chromium oxide and alloy additives [32][33] Group 6 - Yonghe Co. reported H1 2025 revenue of 2.445 billion yuan, a 12.39% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 271 million yuan, up 140.82% [35][36] - The refrigerant segment benefited from favorable supply-demand dynamics, leading to a 26.02% increase in revenue [37] - The company is actively pursuing the development of fourth-generation refrigerants and high-end fluorinated fine chemicals [39] Group 7 - The coal industry showed signs of improvement, with July 2025 coal production at 380 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [40][41] - The report notes that the overall coal production growth rate has slowed due to adverse weather conditions and regulatory checks [42] - The performance of major coal companies varied, with some showing production increases while others faced declines [42]

Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid expansion of the tea and snack industry in China, driven by low-cost, high-sugar products that have become a significant part of consumer habits, particularly among the youth. This trend raises concerns about public health, particularly regarding diabetes and obesity, as the industry thrives on a "sugar addiction" model that may lead to long-term health costs for society. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The tea and snack industry has seen explosive growth, with brands like Mixue Ice City expanding to over 46,000 stores by the end of 2024, achieving a revenue of 24.83 billion yuan with a growth rate exceeding 22% [9][10] - The "0 yuan purchase" subsidy wars among major delivery platforms have led to increased consumption of sugary drinks, with many consumers unaware of the long-term health implications [2][6] - The rapid expansion of snack stores, such as Wanchen Group, which grew from 7,000 to 15,000 stores in less than a year, highlights the effectiveness of the low-cost, high-volume business model [11][12] Group 2: Health Implications - Excessive sugar intake from beverages and snacks poses significant health risks, including obesity, insulin resistance, and chronic diseases, which are becoming a public health crisis in China [5][35] - The average sugar consumption from tea drinks alone could lead to an additional 1.3 kg of sugar intake per person annually, contributing to rising diabetes rates [19][44] - The prevalence of insulin resistance has increased significantly, with a reported rate of 39.1% among adults, indicating a growing health crisis linked to high sugar consumption [38][42] Group 3: Economic and Social Costs - The healthcare costs associated with diabetes and related diseases are projected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting the financial burden on the healthcare system due to rising sugar consumption [45][49] - The rapid growth of the tea and snack industry, while profitable for companies, is shifting health costs to the public healthcare system, creating a hidden burden on society [49][50] - The government's initiatives to manage weight and reduce sugar intake highlight the urgent need for intervention in the face of rising obesity rates and related health issues [41][60] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The addictive nature of sugary products drives high-frequency consumption, particularly among young consumers, who are often unaware of the health risks associated with their habits [22][26] - The industry's focus on low prices and high availability has led to a significant shift in consumer behavior, with many opting for sugary drinks as a primary source of refreshment [31][32] - Despite some brands attempting to reduce sugar content, consumer preferences for sweet flavors complicate efforts to promote healthier options [51][52]

以下文章来源于信风TradeWind ，作者刘艺晨 郑敏芳 作者 刘艺晨 郑敏芳 编辑松壑 2025年入夏，福州的一名初中生小陈被激战正酣的奶茶"0元购"补贴所吸引，每日的奶茶点单量达到了3-4杯。 "好喝的奶茶太多，不喝感觉浪费。"小陈对此感慨。 6月中旬，原本体型偏胖的小陈开始出现口干、多饮等症状，空腹血糖达到了12.3mmol/L，达到正常值上限的2倍还多，最终被确诊为糖尿病。 在三家头部外卖平台砸下亿级补贴发起免费奶茶大战，更多消费者沉浸在这场低成本、甚至零成本的快乐水狂欢中。 一切过度甜蜜背后，总有隐形成本的代偿。 虽然奶茶"0元购"已在外卖大战的调停下熄火。 但不可忽视的是，数以万计的连锁茶饮、零食门店正在通过供应链集约化、点位争夺、下沉扩张的规模经济打法，将更多含糖的食饮以更廉价、流行且易 得的方式渗透进入普通消费者的日常生活。 可是超量含糖食饮摄入对于居民健康的威胁，早已成为世界卫生系统的共识—— 过量糖分会刺激血糖波动，容易诱发胰岛素抵抗，随之而来的肥胖、代谢综合征与内脏脂肪的堆积，正是人类许多慢性病的开端； 一旦出现群体性的血糖失控，不仅会给社会健康带来隐患，还会让原本并不宽裕的医保系统徒 ...

事件概述 财务端来看，本次少数股权收购完成后，将进一步提升上市公司归属于母公司股东的净利润，更好的推 进资源统筹配置和业务布局，从而进一步改善上市公司财务状况，巩固并提升上市公司的持续经营能 力。 量贩行业持续扩张，万辰竞争力进一步提升 参考公司最新公告，中国量贩式零食店行业已经迎来了有利的发展机遇期，2019-2023 年市场规模由 40.8亿元增长至706.7 亿元，CAGR 高达104%，未来5 年中国量贩式零食店行业市场规模仍将保持快速 增长。 万辰作为量贩式零食头部企业，在江苏、山东、河南、河北、安徽等华东、华北区域优势明显，截止 2025年3 月，签约门店数量超过1.5 万家，奠定了行业领先的竞争力。我们看好公司持续深化布局零食 量贩，成长路径进一步清晰，旗下门店数量有望进一步提升，同时随着公司采购成本控制力提升以及不 断降低商品损耗率，量贩业务毛利率有望稳步提升，同时仓储和营销等费用投放边际效用也将逐步提 升，费用率仍有优化空间，整体净利率预计仍有较大的提升空间。中长期我们看好万辰借助上市公司平 台优势，享受零食市场规模增长和渠道占比提升双重红利，实现规模扩张，持续享受行业成长红利。 投资建议 ...