不过 资深央行记者 警告， 此类做法通常与新兴市场弱央行相关，可能引发通胀、危机和经济停滞。 7 月 5 日， 《华尔街日报》资深央行记者 Greg Ip 发表了一篇分析文章， 特朗普近期密集要求美联储主席鲍威尔降息， 或让位给愿意降息的人选。 与 以往不同，这次降息要求服务于其财政目标 ——为国会刚通过的减税法案提供融资支持。 文章表示，特朗普正试图打破预算赤字与利率之间的传统联系。传统经济学理论认为，大规模借贷会推高利率，从而抵消减税带来的好处。但特朗普的策 略是通过向美联储施压，强制降低利率来配合其财政政策目标。 美国总统特朗普正在施压美联储降息以降低赤字融资成本 ，这一 " 财政主导 " 策略目前获得投资者支持，推动股市创下新高。 历史上，央行与政府财政长期交织在一起。英格兰银行成立于 1694 年，就是为了帮助君主制筹集资金。 美联储在一战和二战期间都曾协助政府融资，上世纪 60 年代为配合财政部发债而避免紧缩政策，助长了通胀。 这种 " 财政主导 " 模式在历史上通常与阿根廷等新兴市场的薄弱央行相关联，往往导致通胀、危机和经济停滞的组合。然而，在短期内，这种模式可能成 为强有力的经济刺激手段，这也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is currently in a "super bubble," with a significant downturn predicted, as stated by renowned investor Jeremy Grantham [1][2]. Valuation Concerns - Grantham highlights that U.S. stock valuations have surpassed historical peaks, exceeding levels seen in 1929 and 2021, and are only second to Japan's 1989 bubble [1][3]. - Traditional valuation metrics, including the Shiller P/E ratio, are at historical highs, with most indicators in the top 1% or 2% of their historical ranges [3][5]. - Grantham's models suggest that the U.S. stock market has a potential downside of 50% to return to normal valuation levels [5]. Long-term Economic Trends - Grantham expresses concern over the long-term impact of declining population, which he believes will lead to a loss of "animal spirits," resulting in slower economic growth and decreased productivity [1][8]. - He notes that a declining labor force directly affects GDP growth, citing that Europe's labor force has decreased by nearly 0.5% over the past 15 years, leading to a 2% decline in GDP growth [9]. Investment Strategies - In light of potential market declines, Grantham advises investors to focus on companies with long-term growth potential and strong financial health, particularly in the green economy sector [6]. - He warns against excessive leverage, suggesting that investors should choose companies with lower debt levels and higher profit margins to withstand market shocks [7]. Global Market Perspective - Despite a pessimistic view on U.S. stocks, Grantham sees non-U.S. markets as relatively reasonable and believes they may outperform U.S. markets in the next 5 to 10 years [11]. - Grantham views cryptocurrencies as speculative instruments rather than viable mediums of exchange, criticizing the influx of capital into this market during the 2020 stimulus period [11]. Gold vs. Bitcoin - Grantham expresses a cautious stance on gold but considers it a better hedge asset compared to Bitcoin, acknowledging that both are largely speculative [12].