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3月末我国外储规模达31880亿美元
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 06:28
国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春英表示,2022年3月,我国跨境资金流入总体回升,外汇 市场供求延续基本平衡。国际金融市场上,受主要国家货币政策、地缘政治局势、新冠肺炎疫情等因素 影响,美元指数上涨,主要国家债券价格总体下跌。 根据国家外汇管理局4月7日发布的数据,截至2022年3月末,我国外汇储备规模为31880亿美元,较 2月末下降258亿美元,降幅为0.8%。业内人士表示,3月外汇储备变动主要受到了估值因素影响,展望 未来,我国外汇储备规模有继续保持稳定的基础。 中国民生银行首席研究员温彬表示,未来,我国外汇储备规模有继续保持稳定的基础,我国经济长 期向好的基本面没有改变。"但同时也要看到,当前国际地缘政治冲突仍在持续,粮食、能源、金属等 大宗商品价格持续上涨,全球通胀居高不下,美联储可能采取更大幅度的加息,缩表箭在弦上,这些因 素可能导致全球金融市场波动加剧,对我国产生外溢效应。我国宏观政策要坚持稳字当头、稳中求进基 调,以我为主,主动作为,关注形势和政策变化,研究制定应对预案,及时出台有利于市场预期稳定的 措施,应对好各种风险冲击,保持外汇储备规模基本稳定。" 3月份数据显示,货币方面,美元汇率 ...
【策略】估值因素如何用于行业比较?——行业比较研究系列之六(张宇生/王国兴)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-01 09:14
Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that a single factor is insufficient for long-term success in industry comparisons, advocating for a comprehensive evaluation that incorporates multiple factors, particularly focusing on valuation metrics [3]. Valuation Analysis - Directly using valuation for industry comparisons yields poor results, as the absolute value perspective shows that valuation has an insignificant impact on stock prices. Historical data indicates that both PE and PB valuations have unstable influences on industry stock prices [4]. - Standardizing valuations improves the effectiveness of comparisons, yet the results remain inconsistent. Different industries have unique characteristics and developmental stages, making absolute valuation comparisons potentially misleading [4]. Market Sentiment Impact - The effectiveness of valuation improves significantly when combined with market sentiment. High or low valuation factors struggle to maintain consistent performance, as short-term stock performance is often influenced by marginal changes in fundamentals and market events rather than valuation alone [5]. - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in determining investor preferences for high or low valuation stocks. During periods of rising sentiment, investors favor high valuation sectors, while in declining sentiment, they gravitate towards low valuation sectors [5]. Enhanced Distinction with Market Sentiment - When market sentiment is considered, the distinction in industry performance based on absolute valuation improves significantly. Both PE and PB valuations show enhanced differentiation, with a stable upward trend in the performance of various groups [6]. - However, standardized valuation scores do not perform as well when combined with market sentiment, showing less clear differentiation and unstable performance trends [6]. Best Performing Valuation Metric - Among various valuation metrics, PE valuation combined with market sentiment yields the best scoring results. The investment strategy based on PE valuation from January 2013 to February 2025 shows annualized returns of 16.3%, 11.7%, 4.3%, 0.9%, and -4.7% for different groups, with a total annualized return of 20.9% for the long-short portfolio and a Sharpe ratio of 1.08 [7].