第一，对于短线交易者，必须清醒认识到当前已是情绪高点。参与可以，但要将其视为高风险的情绪博 弈，严守纪律，设置好止损，绝不可追高恋战，并且要快进快出。 第二，对于我们中长线投资者，现在远不是重仓下注的时机，而是启动深度研究和密切跟踪的"观察 哨"时刻。 我们需要像筛金子一样，去筛选公司。重点应放在两类企业上：一类是已经进入国家队或国 内头部商业航天公司供应链，有真实订单和技术的 "硬核配套商" ，比如某些特种材料、核心元器件的 供应商；另一类是在卫星通信、遥感数据应用等下游 "空间运营与服务" 领域有独特卡位和商业模式的 公司。这个阶段，我们的任务是建立股票池，持续跟踪，耐心等待市场情绪降温、好公司出现合理价格 时，再从容布局。 那么，A股的相关公司为什么跟涨？这并非简单的题材炒作。背后的逻辑链条其实非常扎实。SpaceX的 IPO计划，会像一颗投入湖面的巨石，产生三重涟漪效应。第一重，是估值锚定效应，全球投资者会重 新审视和评估所有航天产业链公司的价值。第二重，是产业共振效应，它的成功将极大鼓舞和加速全 球，特别是中国商业航天产业链的技术突破与商业化进程。第三重，也是对我们最关键的，是供应链映 射效应。就像 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges of pricing old shares in the context of a slowing IPO market, highlighting that selling old shares has become a significant exit strategy for investors [1][2] - There is often a discrepancy between the selling price desired by investment managers and the price that the market is willing to pay, leading to difficulties in closing transactions [4][5] - Investment managers tend to have a "reluctance to sell" mentality, wanting to sell at higher prices, which can hinder the negotiation process [3][4] Group 2 - Many Limited Partners (LPs), especially state-owned ones, express concerns about selling shares at perceived low discounts, complicating the exit process [7][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding whether LPs' concerns stem from a genuine belief in higher project value or from internal decision-making processes [9] - The current market conditions have led to significant valuation adjustments, with many companies now facing steep discounts compared to previous inflated valuations [7][8] Group 3 - To assess the true value of old shares, the article suggests abandoning the anchor effect of previous valuations and focusing on what investors are willing to pay [10][12] - It is crucial to recognize that market valuations often include additional conditions that may not reflect the true value of a company [14][15] - The article points out that valuations are typically determined by a small number of investors rather than a broad market consensus, making it essential to avoid rigidly adhering to past valuations [16][17] Group 4 - The lack of liquidity in the market significantly impacts the valuation of old shares, as low trading volumes can lead to inflated perceptions of value [18] - The article argues that without liquidity, the established valuations may not hold true, making it challenging to determine appropriate discount rates for old shares [18]