Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russian - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand slowdown in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits. Also, prepare for the September Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol currently has a high valuation and weakening supply - demand fundamentals, facing price pressure [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. The current price is not high, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position allocation on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price has rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended. Consider a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 [9]. - PVC has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is advisable to wait and see, observing whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up [10]. - For benzene ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upwards [14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [17]. - For PX, with high load maintenance and strong demand from new PTA installations, it is expected to continue de - stocking. It is recommended to consider buying on dips following crude oil [20]. - For PTA, although there will be inventory build - up in August, due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, it is recommended to consider buying on dips following PX [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.90, or 1.38%, to $64.27; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.72, or 1.06%, to $66.96; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.90 yuan, or 0.57%, to 505.9 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.03 million barrels to 423.66 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.98 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 227.08 million barrels, a 0.58% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 112.97 million barrels, a 0.50% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.24 million barrels to 19.80 million barrels, a 1.19% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 44.36 million barrels, a 2.24% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side enterprise profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventories are accelerating the build - up, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously falling [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 22 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 30 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly decreased but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to rise as plants resume operation. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer plants are starting autumn fertilizer production, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, and the seasonal pattern usually shows an upward trend in the second half of the year, along with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, up 0.46 million tons, or 0.4%; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.5 million tons, up 1.2%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48.9 million tons, down 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao was 50.85 (+ 0.29) million tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 9 yuan to 5051 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4920 (+ 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 131 (+ 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 138 (- 3) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 76%, down 3.2%; the ethylene method was 79%, up 8.7%. The overall downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 million tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 million tons (+ 3.9). Enterprise comprehensive profits reached a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure, decreasing maintenance, and high production levels. Domestic downstream operating rates were at a low level, and Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [10]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and although the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, the start - up rate of benzene ethylene has continued to rise. Port inventories have been significantly reduced, and the overall operating rate of three S products in the demand side has fluctuated upwards [14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. Traders' inventories are oscillating at a high level, and demand for agricultural films is at a low level. In August, there is a large production capacity release pressure, and the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is only 45 million tons of planned production capacity release. In the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [17]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 60 yuan to 6794 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 844 dollars, with a basis of 153 yuan (- 14) and a 9 - 1 spread of 50 yuan (+ 22) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The load of PX in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The load of downstream PTA has decreased in the short - term, but the inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates are about to end the off - season. New PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4724 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4680 yuan, with a basis of - 21 yuan (- 2) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 30 yuan (+ 10) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load decreased by 7.1%. Some plants have reduced their loads or stopped production, and new plants have been put into operation. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Inventories have been increasing, and the processing fee has limited operating space. Due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, there is less negative feedback pressure [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 15 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 28 yuan to 4491 yuan, with a basis of 80 yuan (+ 1) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 21 (+ 6) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load decreased by 0.7%, and some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 million tons, and port inventories decreased by 0.5 million tons. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of coal increased. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].