能源化工日报 2025-08-20 原油 2025/08/20 原油早评 能源化工组 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前基本面市场健康，在库欣低库存的情况下，叠加飓风预期与俄罗斯相关事件，原 油具备上涨动能。但 8 月中旬淡季降至，季节性需求转弱将限制原油的上行空间，在上行空间 与窗口期都较为有限的情况下，我们予以短期内 WTI $70.4/桶的目标价格，逢低短多止盈，在 油价出现大幅杀跌时左侧埋伏 9 月俄罗斯地缘预期与飓风断供季。 甲醇 2025/08/20 甲醇 8 月 19 日 01 合约跌 5 元/吨，报 2391 元/吨，现货跌 22 元/吨，基差-111。煤炭价格底部抬升， 甲醇成本走高，但煤制利润依旧在同比高位，国内开工逐步见底回升，后续边际走高，海外装 置开工回到同期高位，后续进口将逐渐走高，整体看供应压力较大。需求方面，传统需求大多 数利润低位，关注后续金九银十实际需求情况。烯烃利润有所改善，港口开工不高，需求表现 偏弱。目前甲醇现实疲弱不改，后续随着旺季的到来预计需求 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of WTI at $70.4/barrel is given. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to position for the Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane - induced supply disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol's valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4]. - Urea's overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6]. - For natural rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounds. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended, and a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 can be considered [10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upward [13]. - For polyethylene, the price in the short - term will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. - For PX, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [19]. - For PTA, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.45, a 0.70% decline, at $63.82; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.55, an 0.82% decline, at $66.41; INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.90 yuan, a 0.97% decline, at 501 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 13.01 million barrels, a 2.02% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 8.67 million barrels, a 2.54% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.65 million barrels to 26.32 million barrels, a 6.69% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 2.12 million barrels to 48.00 million barrels, a 4.63% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6 [4]. - **Analysis**: Domestic methanol production resumed its decline this week, but corporate profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are increasing faster due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO units. Inland inventories are decreasing due to olefin procurement, with relatively low pressure [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 42 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic urea production continued to decline, and corporate profits were still at a low level but are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overall supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and subsequent demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually turns upward in the second half of the year. Bears think that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire factories have inventory pressure [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 5 yuan to 5046 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4910 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 136 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 126 (+ 12) yuan/ton [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. The downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 (+ 1.2) million tons, and social inventories were 72.2 (+ 3.9) million tons. The overall situation is strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene rose, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and there is still support on the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of benzene - ethylene continues to rise. Port inventories are decreasing significantly, and the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still cost support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trade inventories are at a high level and have a weak supporting effect on prices. In August, there is a large planned production capacity release. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In August, there is only a small planned production capacity release. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 38 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 152 (- 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 46 (- 4) yuan [18]. - **Analysis**: PX operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some PTA units had short - term maintenance, but PTA inventories are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. New PTA units are being put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 20 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 8) yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: The PTA operating rate increased. Downstream operating rates also increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase due to new unit launches, but demand from the polyester and terminal sectors is about to end the off - season. The inventory level is low, and the negative feedback pressure is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4396 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4486 yuan, the basis was 73 (- 7) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (- 13) yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The production of ethylene glycol decreased slightly. Downstream operating rates increased slightly. Import arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventories are expected to gradually increase. The current valuation is relatively high compared to the same period, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russian - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand slowdown in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits. Also, prepare for the September Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol currently has a high valuation and weakening supply - demand fundamentals, facing price pressure [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. The current price is not high, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position allocation on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price has rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended. Consider a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 [9]. - PVC has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is advisable to wait and see, observing whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up [10]. - For benzene ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upwards [14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [17]. - For PX, with high load maintenance and strong demand from new PTA installations, it is expected to continue de - stocking. It is recommended to consider buying on dips following crude oil [20]. - For PTA, although there will be inventory build - up in August, due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, it is recommended to consider buying on dips following PX [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.90, or 1.38%, to $64.27; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.72, or 1.06%, to $66.96; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.90 yuan, or 0.57%, to 505.9 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.03 million barrels to 423.66 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.98 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 227.08 million barrels, a 0.58% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 112.97 million barrels, a 0.50% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.24 million barrels to 19.80 million barrels, a 1.19% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 44.36 million barrels, a 2.24% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side enterprise profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventories are accelerating the build - up, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously falling [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 22 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 30 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly decreased but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to rise as plants resume operation. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer plants are starting autumn fertilizer production, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, and the seasonal pattern usually shows an upward trend in the second half of the year, along with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, up 0.46 million tons, or 0.4%; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.5 million tons, up 1.2%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48.9 million tons, down 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao was 50.85 (+ 0.29) million tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 9 yuan to 5051 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4920 (+ 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 131 (+ 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 138 (- 3) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 76%, down 3.2%; the ethylene method was 79%, up 8.7%. The overall downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 million tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 million tons (+ 3.9). Enterprise comprehensive profits reached a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure, decreasing maintenance, and high production levels. Domestic downstream operating rates were at a low level, and Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [10]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and although the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, the start - up rate of benzene ethylene has continued to rise. Port inventories have been significantly reduced, and the overall operating rate of three S products in the demand side has fluctuated upwards [14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. Traders' inventories are oscillating at a high level, and demand for agricultural films is at a low level. In August, there is a large production capacity release pressure, and the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is only 45 million tons of planned production capacity release. In the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [17]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 60 yuan to 6794 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 844 dollars, with a basis of 153 yuan (- 14) and a 9 - 1 spread of 50 yuan (+ 22) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The load of PX in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The load of downstream PTA has decreased in the short - term, but the inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates are about to end the off - season. New PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4724 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4680 yuan, with a basis of - 21 yuan (- 2) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 30 yuan (+ 10) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load decreased by 7.1%. Some plants have reduced their loads or stopped production, and new plants have been put into operation. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Inventories have been increasing, and the processing fee has limited operating space. Due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, there is less negative feedback pressure [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 15 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 28 yuan to 4491 yuan, with a basis of 80 yuan (+ 1) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 21 (+ 6) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load decreased by 0.7%, and some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 million tons, and port inventories decreased by 0.5 million tons. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of coal increased. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit the upside potential of crude oil. A short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips, and left-side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when oil prices plunge [2]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.05, or 1.52%, to $70.3/barrel; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.71, or 0.98%, to $73.47/barrel; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.30 yuan, or 0.24%, to 529.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 426.69 million barrels, a 1.84% increase; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.74 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 228.41 million barrels, a 1.18% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 3.64 million barrels to 113.54 million barrels, a 3.31% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.20 million barrels to 20.04 million barrels, a 0.97% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 2.11 million barrels to 43.39 million barrels, a 4.63% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2419 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of -9 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream开工率 has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure is expected to increase marginally. MTO profits have declined again, port开工率 remains stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and methanol may face downward pressure. Port inventories have increased, year-on-year inventories are low, and overall inventory levels have decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1742 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工率 continues to decline, and enterprise profits have rebounded but are still at a relatively low level. As the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improves, the cost support for urea gradually strengthens. The开工率 of compound fertilizers has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and port inventories continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have oscillated downward after a significant correction. Supply concerns have eased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather conditions in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, and the current situation of rubber plantations may lead to a reduction in rubber production. Rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macroeconomic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the reduction in supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider a long-short spread operation on RU2601 and RU2509 [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5060 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was -99 (+73) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -137 (-13) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall开工率 of PVC is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. The demand side is weak, and downstream开工率 is at a five-year low and still in the off-season. Exports are affected by India's anti-dumping policy. The cost support has weakened. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices have both risen, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term macroeconomic positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with significant room for upward repair. The开工率 of pure benzene has declined slightly, but supply remains ample. The开工率 of styrene has continued to increase. Port inventories have increased significantly, and demand is in the seasonal off-season. It is expected that the BZN spread will repair in the short term, and styrene prices may follow the cost side and oscillate upward after port inventories are reduced [13][14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen [16]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. Spot prices have risen, and PE valuations have limited downward space. Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. Demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the overall开工率 is oscillating downward. The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward movement to high maintenance boosting inventory reduction. There is a large capacity release pressure in August, and polyethylene prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profits of Shandong refineries have stopped falling and rebounded, and the开工率 is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off-season, and downstream开工率 is oscillating downward. There is only 450,000 tons of planned capacity to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market. It is expected that polypropylene prices will follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July [17]. PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 42 yuan to 6984 yuan, and PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 866 dollars. The basis was 147 yuan (+25), and the 9-1 spread was 106 yuan (-2) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: PX开工率 remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the开工率 of the downstream is relatively high. Inventory levels are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is still small in the short term. New PTA plants are planned to be put into operation soon, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. Valuations are currently at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [19][21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4860 yuan. The basis was -10 yuan (-5), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (-4) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA开工率 is 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. Downstream开工率 has increased, and terminal开工率 has also recovered. Inventories have increased slightly. PTA processing fees have limited room for operation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [22]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 17 yuan to 4527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+4), and the 9-1 spread was -28 yuan (-3) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has increased, and downstream开工率 has also increased. Port inventories have decreased. Valuations are relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Saudi Arabian plants have all restarted, and the expected arrival volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [23].

能源化工日报 2025-07-30 原油 2025/07/30 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 2.27 美元，涨幅 3.39%，报 69.25 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 2.36 美元，涨幅 3.35%，报 72.76 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 4.00 元，涨幅 0.76%， 报 531 元。 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存去库 1.44 百万桶至 6.87 百万桶，环 比去库 17.29%；柴油库存累库 0.26 百万桶至 2.45 百万桶，环比累库 11.98%。 我们认为当前基本面市场健康，在库欣低库存的情况下，叠加飓风预期与俄罗斯相关事件，原 油具备上涨动能。但 8 月中旬淡季降至，季节性需求转弱将限制原油的上行空间，在上行空间 与窗口期都较为有限的情况下，我们予以短期内 WTI $70.4/桶的目标价格，逢低短多止盈，在 油价出现大幅杀跌时左侧埋伏 9 月俄罗斯地缘预期与飓风断供季。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is set, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side ambushes for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption seasons in September when oil prices plunge [2]. - For methanol, short-term prices are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. As sentiment cools, prices may face downward pressure. Fundamentally, supply pressure will increase marginally, and demand may weaken, so methanol may face correction pressure. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options at high prices [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has declined, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. Demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. Overall, supply and demand are weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. - For PVC, the current supply is strong, demand is weak, and valuations are high. The fundamental situation is poor, but it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector. However, there is a risk of a significant decline when sentiment fades [12]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [14]. - For polyethylene, the short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [17]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the off-season, macro expectations will dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in July [18]. - For PX, the current load remains high, downstream PTA maintenance seasons have ended, and inventory levels are low. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory [21]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to follow PX and go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply side has increased, and downstream operations have recovered, but the height is still low. Port inventory depletion is expected to slow down. Valuations are relatively high year-on-year, and the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak. There is short-term pressure on valuations to decline [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell $1.09, or 1.65%, to $65.07 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell $0.97, or 1.40%, to $68.39 per barrel; INE crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.46%, to 529.4 yuan per barrel [1]. - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 10.15 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 13.07 million barrels, a 0.45% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 6.34 million barrels, a 2.54% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.34 million barrels to 5.08 million barrels, a 6.31% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.49 million barrels to 5.87 million barrels, a 7.68% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 40.50 million barrels, a 2.32% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 38 yuan/ton to 2541 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of -53 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure will increase marginally. The MTO profit has declined again, port operations remain stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market will gradually shift to a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1792 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. The compound fertilizer production has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are relatively high. Exports are continuing, and port inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On the night of July 25, NR and RU had significant corrections [9]. - **Supply Situation**: Frictions between Thailand and Cambodia are being negotiated, which may reduce supply concerns [9]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 20, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% from the previous period; the total inventory of dark rubber was 79.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.23%; the total inventory of light rubber was 49.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.85%. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory was 50.56 (-0.19) million tons [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Rubber prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 135 yuan to 5373 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5160 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was -213 (-65) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -113 (+1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Cost Side**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2225 (-25) yuan/ton, the price of medium-grade semi-coke was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 820 (0) US dollars/ton. The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda was 830 (0) yuan/ton [12]. - **Production Situation**: The overall PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.3%, a decrease of 0.5%; the ethylene method was 70.3%, a decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream demand operating rate was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.8%. Factory inventories were 35.7 million tons (-1), and social inventories were 68.3 million tons (+2.6) [12]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [13]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is looking forward to the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, with a warming macro sentiment and a rising black sector. The cost side still has support. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space [14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of pure benzene has decreased slightly, but the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the production of styrene has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. During the off-season, the overall operating rate of the three S industries has fluctuated and increased [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The spot price of polyethylene increased, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. During the off-season, agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is oscillating downward [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [18]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. During the off-season, with weak supply and demand, macro expectations will dominate the market [18]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that polypropylene prices will fluctuate strongly in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 106 yuan to 7062 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 18 US dollars to 874 US dollars. The basis was 133 yuan (+46), and the 9-1 spread was 112 yuan (+4) [20]. - **Load Situation**: China's PX load was 79.9%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period; Asia's load was 72.9%, a decrease of 0.7%. Sheng Hong further reduced its load due to upstream device failures, Tianjin Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period [20]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: From mid to early July, South Korea exported 23.8 million tons of PX to China, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 million tons. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a decrease of 16.5 million tons from the previous month [20][21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 280 US dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 74 US dollars (+10). The current PX load remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the load level is high, with low inventory levels. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The current valuation is at a neutral level [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 86 yuan to 4936 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 4895 yuan, the basis was -8 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 18 yuan (-8) [22]. - **Load Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [22]. - **Inventory Situation**: On July 18, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 218.9 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons from the previous period [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 19 yuan to 175 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 16 yuan to 303 yuan. Supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. The PXN is expected to be supported and rise following the improvement of the pattern brought by the commissioning of new PTA devices [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 60 yuan to 4545 yuan, the East China spot price rose 52 yuan to 4582 yuan, the basis was 50 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (+5) [23]. - **Supply Situation**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.4%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous period; among them, the syngas method was 74.4%, an increase of 4.2%; the ethylene method load was 64.7%, an increase of 0.9%. Some syngas-based devices restarted, some oil-based devices increased their loads, and some devices switched from EO to EG production. Overseas, the Sharq devices in Saudi Arabia's Jubail region all restarted, and the US Lotte was under maintenance [23]. - **Demand Situation**: The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [23]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: The import arrival forecast was 15.7 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 24 was 1.1 million tons, with an increase in outbound volume. Port inventories were 53.3 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha-based production profit was -305 yuan, the domestic ethylene-based production profit was -462 yuan, and the coal-based production profit was 976 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit-mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 580 yuan [23].