Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new round of fuel price adjustments due to fluctuations in international oil prices, resulting in a slight increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices starting from November 10 at 24:00 [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From November 10 at 24:00, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 125 and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, leading to an average increase of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan [1]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Conditions - The global crude oil market is currently characterized by an overall supply surplus, with international oil prices showing narrow fluctuations during the adjustment period, averaging higher than the previous adjustment cycle [3]. - Brent crude oil futures are currently oscillating in the range of 63 to 65 dollars per barrel [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations - There are significant uncertainties regarding geopolitical risks, particularly the potential escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, which could impact oil supply [5]. - Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, which may provide support for oil prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China will increase for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, 2023 [1] Group 1: International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown a downward trend overall, despite some support from geopolitical factors and OPEC's decision to halt production increases in the first quarter of next year [2] - The average Brent crude oil price is currently fluctuating between 63 to 65 USD per barrel, indicating a slight increase compared to the previous pricing cycle [1][2] - The global oil market is characterized by an oversupply, but potential changes in geopolitical risks and seasonal demand could influence future price movements [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic fuel market is experiencing a divergence in demand, with gasoline prices declining due to weak terminal demand, while diesel prices are supported by stable weather and ongoing industrial activities [2] - Analysts predict that the new pricing cycle may start with a negative change rate based on current oil prices, suggesting continued volatility in the market [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term bearishness is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, with slow import unloading, slower port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - fired plant shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, with supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. Although consumption lacks positive factors, the downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. - For rubber, as the positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10][12]. - For PVC, with continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the decline in pure benzene and styrene prices, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [16][17]. - For polyethylene, with cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [19][20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [22][23]. - For PX, with high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [23][24]. - For PTA, with short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [24][25]. - For ethylene glycol, with high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [26][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, at 468.90 yuan/barrel. China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.53 million barrels to 212.44 million barrels, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.25% [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and decreased by 20 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 4 yuan to 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 38 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: With slow import unloading and potential supply disruptions, the downward momentum of the futures price is limited. It's advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 2 yuan to 1640 yuan, with a basis of - 60 yuan [7]. - **Strategy**: With supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong enterprises was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises was 74.49%. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1050000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC increased by 38 yuan to 4746 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 146 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory was 334000 tons, and social inventory was 1035000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: With continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The BZN spread was 109.87 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons to 20.25 million tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 7024 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 51.46 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% [19]. - **Strategy**: With cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6699 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 million tons to 63.85 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [21][22]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX increased by 104 yuan to 6626 yuan. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA increased by 98 yuan to 4616 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million tons [24]. - **Strategy**: With short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol increased by 32 yuan to 4109 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 million tons to 52.3 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: With high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] - For methanol, due to slow import unloading, slowed port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - head device shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited. It's recommended to wait and see [6] - For urea, with supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] - For rubber, the upward momentum driven by the typhoon will weaken. With different views from bulls and bears, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12][13][17] - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically. It's recommended to wait and see [23] - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see [26] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price. It's recommended to wait and see [29] - For PX, with high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] - For PTA, short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures contract on INE closed up 10.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.40% increase, at 464.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that the total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 43.83 million barrels, a 5.28% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, decreased by 2.5 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 32 yuan, at 2272 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 45 [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to slow import unloading, the port inventory accumulation has slowed. The current port inventory is 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton increase. The domestic production has declined, and the overall traditional demand has weakened. Although there are potential positive factors, it's recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price increased by 20 yuan in Shandong and Henan, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 4 yuan, at 1642 yuan, with a basis of - 82. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 77 [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rose due to the typhoon and positive factors in the stock market, but the positive impact of the typhoon will weaken. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [17] PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan, at 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 108 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase. The overall production rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons, a 2.7 - ton decrease, and the social inventory was 103.5 tons, a 0.1 - ton increase [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 12 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 100 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The BZN spread decreased by 11.63 yuan/ton, and the EB non - integrated device profit decreased by 5 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the spot price increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 45 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 14 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price [29] PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 26 yuan, at 6522 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars, at 815 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 4518 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4450 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4077 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 14 yuan, at 4187 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The port inventory was 57.9 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33]

Report Title - Crude Oil Stops Falling and Rebounds, Styrene Temporarily Stabilizes - Styrene Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. The BZN spread of pure benzene has decreased, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants has increased, with the overall valuation being moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side enters a seasonal peak season, leading to a brief rebound in the downstream 3S开工率. Port inventories are fluctuating at a high level. In the short term, geopolitical factors will push up the crude oil price center, and the seasonal peak season will interfere with the decline of styrene prices. When the seasonal off - season arrives at the end of the fourth quarter, the futures price may continue to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information** - Policy: There is an expectation of geopolitical escalation in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound [11]. - Valuation: The weekly decline of styrene (futures > cost > spot), the basis weakens, the BZN spread decreases, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants increases [11]. - Cost: Last week, the spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 3.08%, the price of the active futures contract of pure benzene decreased by - 0.16%, the pure benzene basis decreased by 166 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene operating rate fluctuated at a high level [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 71.88%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.35%, a year - on - year increase of 2.10%, and a decrease of - 8.20% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the supply - demand pattern may change in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on the supply side may be slightly relieved. In September, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.3507 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.88%, mainly from the Middle East. The import volume of EB in September was 246,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 8.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. Last week, the port inventory of pure benzene and the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate at a high level [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of downstream 3S was 42.92%, a month - on - month increase of 11.38%; the operating rate of PS was 53.80%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.47% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.49%; the operating rate of EPS was 62.52%, a month - on - month increase of 53.47% and a year - on - year increase of 4.80%; the operating rate of ABS was 73.10%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 19.25%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, downstream demand has slightly improved [12]. - Inventory: The in - plant inventory of EB was 193,200 tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of - 0.11% and a year - on - year stocking of 17.59%; the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a month - on - month stocking of 3.05% and a year - on - year stocking of 483.57%. Port inventories continued to accumulate at a high level [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint** - Forecast for this week: The reference oscillation range for pure benzene (BZ2603) is (5800 - 6100); the reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2511) is (6800 - 7100). It is recommended to wait and see [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to styrene, including spot price, futures active contract price, basis, open interest, trading volume, registered warehouse receipts, and spreads between different contracts from 2021 - 2025 [16][19][21] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory** - The report shows charts of the inventory of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and styrene factories from 2021 - 2025 [34][35][37] - **Profit** - The POSM profit of styrene has recovered from the historical low in the same period. The production process of styrene mainly includes ethylbenzene dehydrogenation (85%), PO/SM co - production (12%), and C8 extraction (3%). The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [41][43][46] 4. Cost Side - **Supply - Side Profit** - The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly [53] - **Supply - Demand of Pure Benzene** - In 2025, pure benzene will continue to reduce inventory, and the supply - demand gap will increase quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 2.28 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 3.11 million tons [57][58] - **Price Difference** - The US - South Korea price difference of pure benzene has fluctuated upwards [64] - **Downstream Factory Inventory** - The factory inventory of caprolactam has been fluctuating at a high level [91] 5. Supply Side - **Production Plan** - In 2025, the supply - demand gap of styrene will increase in the fourth quarter. The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.42 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 4.198 million tons [105][107] - **Production and Import - Export** - The styrene production has declined from the high level in the same period. The report also shows charts of styrene's daily production, export volume, import volume, and weekly operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [113][117][115] 6. Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast** - The report presents the capacity, production, and growth rate charts of PS, EPS, and ABS from 2021 - 2025 [125] - **Operating Rate and Profit** - The operating rate of EPS has seasonally rebounded, the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level, and the report also shows the production profit and inventory charts of PS, EPS, and ABS [128][136][138] - **Downstream Demand Structure** - PS accounts for 35% of the demand for styrene, mainly used in food packaging, daily necessities, and electronic casings; EPS accounts for 21%, mainly used in building insulation materials and shock - proof packaging; ABS accounts for 15%, mainly used in household appliance casings, auto parts, and toys [147] - **Downstream Product Sales** - The report shows the monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate charts of household refrigerators and washing machines from 2021 - 2025 [148][152][157]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, technical buying increased after a sharp decline in ICE raw sugar, showing signs of stabilization. However, global sugar production is expected to be high, and the downward potential of raw sugar has weakened. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar was driven down by the macro - environment and the decline in raw sugar, with short - term technical rebounds but limited by supply - demand pressure [3]. - In the pulp market, the price of hardwood pulp is strong, while the price of softwood pulp is weak. The supply of wood pulp is high, and although there was a reduction in production by some pulp mills, the impact is not obvious. The demand for wood pulp is supported by the increase in the production of finished paper during the peak season, but the price increase of finished paper is weak, and the upward drive for pulp is limited [4]. - Regarding double - offset paper, the expectation of peak - season demand may support the price, but due to the high production capacity, the seasonal improvement may not lead to a significant price increase, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [7]. - In the cotton market, the US cotton harvest is progressing steadily, and the domestic Xinjiang cotton harvest is also in progress. The market is under pressure from supply and consumption concerns, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [8]. - For apples, the new - season apple harvest has a time lag and quality concerns, and the short - term futures price may be supported [10]. - In the jujube market, the inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price is at a high premium to the spot price, and investors are advised to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2601: Adopt a bullish approach, with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 9000 - 9200, due to the expected difference in the new - season harvest and the value of taking delivery [21]. - Jujube 2601: Short at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000, as the overall commodity sentiment is strong and attention is on weather - related price premiums [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Temporarily wait and see, with a support range of 5270 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5480 - 5500, as technical buying has increased and sentiment has improved [21]. - Pulp 2511: Short within the range, with a support range of 4700 - 4800 and a pressure range of 5100 - 5200, because the short - term valuation is not high, but supply is high and the price of domestic finished paper is weak [21]. - Double - offset paper 2601: Short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500, as the approaching peak season supports the price, but the supply is elastic [21]. - Cotton 2601: Hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700, due to the approaching new - cotton listing and concerns about Sino - US trade relations [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. As of September 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,700 tons [22]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the inventory apple market is stable, and the new - season late - maturing Fuji has a delayed listing due to weather. In the Shaanxi production area, red apples are scarce, and the listing time is also postponed. The sales area market is stable [22][23][24]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, a decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. Attention is on the circulation of old - season jujubes and price changes before the new - season harvest [25]. - **Sugar Market**: In September, the average productivity of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 71.9 tons per hectare, higher than the same period last year. Pakistan plans to purchase up to 100,000 tons of sugar on the international market, but the possibility of a deal seems to be decreasing [27]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered to import NBSK at $650 per ton, but sellers refused to reduce prices. A European supplier sold NBSK at $650 per ton, lower than the market level. A major Brazilian supplier will increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by $20 per ton [30]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the price of double - offset paper is relatively stable. The supply is relatively loose as some production lines resume production after the holiday, and the demand shows no sign of improvement [31][32]. - **Cotton Market**: In September 2025, Bangladesh's clothing export volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. In August, Vietnam's cotton textile production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while clothing production decreased. As of October 13, the cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang was about 53.2%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be adjusted slightly [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2601, jujube 2601, sugar 2601, pulp 2511, and cotton 2601 are 8665, 11105, 5403, 4856, and 13270 respectively, with daily changes of 0.01%, - 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.21%, and 0.04% [34]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are 3.75 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5790 yuan per ton, 5550 yuan (Shandong Silver Star), 4450 yuan (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin), and 14674 yuan per ton respectively, with corresponding changes [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, such as the basis of apple 1 - month, jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread is 535, with a month - on - month change of - 1 and a year - on - year change of - 97, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread is 315, with a month - on - month change of 295 and a year - on - year change of - 55, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread is 32, with a month - on - month change of 5 and a year - on - year change of 15, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread is - 60, with a month - on - month change of - 5 and a year - on - year change of 25, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see temporarily [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short changes of various varieties are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volumes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 0, 8438, 227676, and 2773 respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [85]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: In the fourth quarter, the downside space is limited. Although the current downstream demand is mainly based on rigid - need purchases, there may be procurement willingness after the National Day due to low prices. In the fourth quarter, there may be concentrated stocking behavior, and the spot liquidity may tighten [2]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, pay attention to cost support. Although the supply is in an over - capacity situation, exports have alleviated some pressure. The cost side provides bottom support, and the downside space during the peak season is limited [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the PXN has a compression expectation. The price will be under pressure due to weak cost - side support and weak supply - demand expectations [6]. - **PTA**: In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to have an independent market and may follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a period of inventory accumulation as it enters the demand off - season [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the current maintenance is at a high point, and the inventory of the upper - middle reaches is being depleted. For PP, unplanned maintenance has increased due to losses, and the inventory has decreased. However, after the festival, there is a large inventory pressure, and the new capacity release limits the upside space [9]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol**: In the short term, it will continue the volatile pattern. The supply side has a game between the expected supply reduction and the relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak as the traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin device production expectations suppress the MTO demand [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the oil price trend and macro - market sentiment [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical and macro - news [26]. Fertilizer Industry - **Urea**: The futures price fluctuates downward. The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the export situation is uncertain [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price will likely maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. Unilateral trading is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and arbitrage is recommended to use a positive - spread strategy [33][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some products such as East China PVC by calcium carbide method decreased slightly, and the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC were mostly stable, but the export profit of caustic soda decreased by 26.3%, and that of PVC increased by 323.8% [2]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 0.9%, while the data of caustic soda start - up rate was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, and the PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong, and PVC upstream factories increased, while the total PVC social inventory remained unchanged [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha decreased [6]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX and PX spot in RMB decreased [6]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price in East China increased slightly, and the PTA futures price decreased [6]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG spot price in East China decreased, and the MEG futures price also decreased [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other futures decreased slightly, and the price of East China PP raffia decreased by 0.3% [8][9]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased [9]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased slightly, and the regional spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port and social inventories of methanol decreased [21]. - **Start - up Rates**: The start - up rate of upstream domestic enterprises increased, while the start - up rates of some downstream industries decreased [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some upstream products such as CFR China pure benzene decreased, and the import profit of pure benzene decreased [25]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China spot and futures decreased slightly [25]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the styrene inventory increased. The start - up rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [25]. Fertilizer Industry - **Fertilizer Prices**: The prices of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur are provided on September 26 [28][29]. - **Urea Data**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea are presented. The daily output is high, and the demand is weak [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD decreased, and the spreads also changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products such as US gasoline and diesel changed [33].

Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with increases up to 20 CNY per gram, and most stores reporting an increase of 18 CNY per gram, reaching 1053 CNY per gram at the highest-priced stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold reported the lowest price at 989 CNY per gram, with a price difference of 64 CNY per gram compared to the highest price, which has narrowed from the previous day [1] - Specific gold prices from various brands include: Lao Miao at 1052 CNY, Liu Fu at 1053 CNY, and Zhou Da Fu at 1037 CNY, among others [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has also increased by 7.9 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - Current recycling prices include: 799.30 CNY for general gold, 804.80 CNY for Cai Zi gold, and 812.10 CNY for Lao Feng Xiang gold [2] International Gold Market - Spot gold experienced a decline to a low of 3469.99 USD per ounce but rebounded to close at 3532.69 USD per ounce, marking a 1.65% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3530.84 USD per ounce, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% [4] - Factors influencing gold prices include uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, weak economic data, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a shift of funds into safe-haven assets like gold [4] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to rise due to seasonal demand and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].