1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Energy and chemical products' prices and market trends are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, production conditions, and demand levels [3][5][8][11][14][17][18][21][24][26][29][32][35] - Different trading strategies are recommended for various products according to their respective market situations 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 38.50 yuan/barrel, or 5.41%, to 750.80 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had different degrees of increase [2] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Start a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; widen the price difference between different oil types and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: There were different price changes in regional spot markets, and the main futures contract rose 32.00 yuan/ton to 2805 yuan/ton, with MTO profit changing by 63 yuan [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Since methanol already includes current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high levels [5] Urea - **Market Information**: There were different price changes in regional spot markets, and the main futures contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 1889 yuan/ton, with an overall basis of - 29 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Expect a high - level start in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, domestic contradictions are not prominent. It is recommended to short at high levels. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand marginal support [8] Rubber - **Market Information**: The market is trading on the expectation and realization of refinery shutdowns, with downstream supply of ethylene and aromatics decreasing. There are different views on the rise and fall of natural rubber [11] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, open or hold a new position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5724 yuan. The spot price and relevant cost prices changed, and the overall start - up rate and demand - side start - up rate also had corresponding changes [16] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has rebounded to a high level. With the expectation of ethylene - based passive production cuts and seasonal maintenance, and considering factors such as export and cost, the short - term trend is mainly upward, but risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [17][18] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets rose, with changes in basis and other indicators. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The demand - side start - up rate generally increased [20] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has slightly eased. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the valuation upward repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [21] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, while the spot price fell. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and there were changes in inventory. The downstream average start - up rate increased [23] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down. The PE valuation still has downward space. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high levels [24] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, while the spot price fell. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and there were changes in inventory. The downstream average start - up rate increased [25] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The cost - side supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity release plan in the first half of 2026. The downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally. Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from the cost side to production capacity mismatch [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 200 yuan to 10018 yuan. The PX load decreased, and multiple devices had production cuts. The PTA load also decreased, and there were changes in imports and inventory [28] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 64 yuan to 6934 yuan. The PTA load decreased, and the downstream load increased. There was inventory accumulation, and the processing fee increased [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 76 yuan to 4729 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and multiple domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or production cuts. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory increased [34] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The overseas device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and domestic devices are entering the maintenance season. The import is expected to decrease significantly in March, and the port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking. However, risks should be noted due to excessive price increases [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout is recommended. Specific strategies include a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully priced in the current geopolitical premium, and with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, there is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle. The oil - chemical profit has fallen to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 70.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9.61%, at 662.00 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.87%, at 4318.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.33%, at 5050.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a mid - term layout strategy, including a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 80 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 110 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 25 yuan/ton. The main contract of methanol futures changed by 59.00 yuan/ton, at 2658 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 50 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Since methanol has fully priced in the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong and Hubei changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 12 yuan/ton. The main contract of urea futures changed by 16 yuan/ton, at 1872 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a sharp drop in crude oil, which in turn drove down the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The market changes rapidly. The long and short sides have different views. The long side of natural rubber (RU) is optimistic due to factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal expectations, and improved demand in China. The short side is pessimistic due to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of March 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, an increase of 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 342 yuan, at 5571 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5270 (+120) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (-222) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 29 (+60) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (+50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 970 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 82.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 18.7%. The in - plant inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 7755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 9820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1905 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 196.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 327.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 208.8 yuan/ton. The spread between the first and second consecutive contracts of EB was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a decrease of 0.13%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 8154 yuan/ton, an increase of 387 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7825 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton. The basis was - 329 yuan/ton, a weakening of 212 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 348 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 8197 yuan/ton, an increase of 377 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 97 yuan/ton, a weakening of 177 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 630 yuan, at 9532 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 66 US dollars, at 1217 US dollars. The basis was 135 yuan (-114), and the 5 - 7 spread was 412 yuan (+88). The domestic PX load was 90.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the Asian load was 83.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. A 2.5 - million - ton PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and the Daxie plant was shut down. Overseas, a 770,000 - ton PX plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance, and a 550,000 - ton plant of GS was operating at a reduced load. The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 157,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The PXN was 310 US dollars (-45), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (+18), and the naphtha cracking spread was 172 US dollars (-162) [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 460 yuan, at 6660 yuan. The East China spot price rose 140 yuan, at 6320 yuan. The basis was - 14 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan (+66). The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 2.623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 198 yuan, to - 22 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 47 yuan, to 407 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 272 yuan, at 4577 yuan. The East China spot price fell 8 yuan, at 4400 yuan. The basis was - 23 yuan (-25), and the 5 - 9 spread was 143 yuan (+137). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; among them, the syngas - based load was 83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene - based load was 67.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. Many domestic and overseas plants were under maintenance or operating at a reduced load. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The import arrival forecast was 78,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on March 10 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1940 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1212 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 661 yuan. The

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. There is still a probability of short - term fluctuations due to overseas geopolitics. The previous short positions should be taken profit, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5]. - For urea, the import window has been opened due to the current situation of internal and external price differences, and combined with the expected production start - up recovery at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so short positions are recommended [8]. - For rubber, near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce the risk level and focus on risk prevention. Short - term trading according to the disk, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations are suggested. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended not to hold single - side positions, and hedge by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral to low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The export tax rebate cancellation has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the follow - up changes in production capacity and start - up should be concerned [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene production starts to rebound from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene continues to accumulate. It is recommended to gradually take profit as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. In the off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films may reach the peak, and the overall start - up rate fluctuates downward [23]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the pressure is relieved. The downstream start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to production investment mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [26]. - For PX, the PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high - level maintenance in the short - term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is limited by the off - season and the load gradually decreases. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The PTA processing fee is expected to remain stable at a high level, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, look for opportunities to go long at low levels [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large due to the off - season of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high start - up. The current valuation is moderately low year - on - year. There is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 10.10 yuan/barrel, a 2.17% increase, at 476.10 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.15% increase, at 2845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a 1.63% increase, at 3306.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.95 million barrels to 97.01 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.93 million barrels to 98.87 million barrels, a 2.00% increase; the total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.89 million barrels to 195.88 million barrels, a 2.02% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 2 yuan/ton, Lunan by 20 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2241 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 6 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated and consolidated following the commodity market. The bulls believed in an increase due to macro - bullish expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears thought the market would decline due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than last week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than last week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 tons, a 0.9 - ton increase and a 0.7% increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 15200 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10100 (0) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12200 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4971 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4730 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 588 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease. The factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+2.1) [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5995 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene active contract closed at 6034 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the styrene active contract closed at 7473 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase; the basis was 227 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan decrease; the BZN spread was 166.12 yuan/ton, a 1.75 - yuan increase; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 134.05 yuan/ton, a 79.75 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 10.86 tons, a 0.80 - ton increase. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6775 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, an 83 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 87 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase [24][25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 28 yuan to 7220 yuan, PX CFR increased by 9 US dollars to 909 US dollars. The basis was - 31 yuan (+47), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of devices, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing the load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to China, a 2.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December, the inventory was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 302 US dollars (+7), South Korea's PX - MX was 139 US dollars (- 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 91 US dollars (- 12) [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 38 yuan to 5230 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan to 5140 yuan. The basis was - 75 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan (+20). The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 tons, a 3.3 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 18 yuan to 366 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 26 yuan to 436 yuan [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 3733 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 12 yuan to 3623 yuan. The basis was - 110 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, among which the syngas - based production was 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based load was 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. In terms of syngas - based devices, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short - term, Guanghui was shut down and the restart was to be determined, and Sinochem had a load reduction due to an accident. In terms of petrochemical, Zhongke Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou were restarting. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian was shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 was restarting. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure was 1.5 tons on February 9. The port inventory was 93.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 1252 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 24 yuan. The cost - side ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 580 yuan [33].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Methanol - Current methanol has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. Overseas geopolitics may still fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2]. 2.2 Urea - The situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of a recovery in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching. It is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [3]. 2.3 Crude Oil - Current oil prices have risen to a certain extent and have priced in a relatively high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the previous prediction that Venezuela's production increase will exceed expectations and OPEC's subsequent production increase and recovery expectations, medium - term layout should be the main operation idea, but it is necessary to wait for the end of the geopolitical situation to eliminate tail risks [8]. 2.4 Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate significantly following the commodity market. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Short positions can be taken when RU2605 is below 16,000, and the position of buying the main NR contract and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. 2.5 PVC - Fundamentally, enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The reduction in supply is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Short - term electricity price expectations, production capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in production capacity and production [16]. 2.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene have declined, and the basis has widened. The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, and the basis has weakened. Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is relatively high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The production of pure benzene at a low level has rebounded, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation in the supply side has increased, and the production of styrene has fluctuated at a low level. Styrene port inventory has continued to increase. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products in the demand side has increased. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased from a high level, and the port inventory of styrene has continued to decrease. Since the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. 2.7 Polyethylene - The futures price has risen. OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for downward PE valuation. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high in the same period, reducing the pressure on the market. In the supply side, only one BASF plant has been put into production in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. In the seasonal off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films in the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate is declining [23]. 2.8 Polypropylene - The futures price has risen. In the cost side, the EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventories will slightly decrease, and the oversupply situation may ease. In the supply side, there are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, reducing pressure. In the demand side, the operating rate of downstream industries fluctuates seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period. When the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year, the market price may bottom out. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production capacity mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. 2.9 PX - Currently, PX production remains at a high level, and there are many maintenance activities in the downstream PTA industry, with the overall operating rate at a relatively low level. It is expected that PX will maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation center has risen, and short - process profits are also high. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is relatively strong, with a good medium - term outlook. The repair of PTA processing fees has also further expanded the PXN space. For the subsequent valuation to rise further, it is necessary for the downstream polyester production start - up and raw material plant maintenance plans after the Spring Festival to meet expectations. Medium - term attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips following crude oil [28]. 2.10 PTA - In the future, the supply side will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will gradually decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage. In terms of valuation, PTA processing fees are expected to remain high and stable, and PXN has回调 to a neutral level. There is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Medium - term attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips and grasping the rhythm [30]. 2.11 Ethylene Glycol - In terms of industry fundamentals, the number of overseas plant maintenance activities is higher than that in the fourth quarter, but the decline in domestic maintenance is still insufficient. The current overall operating rate is still relatively high. The expected import volume in February will decrease slightly, but due to the downstream off - season, the port stock - building pressure is still high. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of stock - building and high operating rates. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. The current valuation is relatively low compared to the same period. Tensions in the Iranian situation and the rebound in coal prices support its valuation in the short term, and there are increasing unexpected production cut news under the low profit of oil - chemical industry, so there is a risk of rebound [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea - **Market Information**: In Shandong, the price changed by 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Shanxi, the price did not change; in Jiangsu, the price changed by 10 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, the price did not change. The overall basis was reported at - 16 yuan/ton. The main futures contract price changed by - 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1776 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: In Jiangsu, the price changed by - 45 yuan/ton; in Lunan, the price changed by - 2.5 yuan/ton; in Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, the price did not change. The main futures contract price changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 2244 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 5 yuan [5]. 3.3 Singapore ESG Oil Products - **Inventory Data**: Gasoline inventory increased by 0.62 million barrels to 17.53 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.68%; diesel inventory increased by 0.33 million barrels to 8.93 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; fuel oil inventory increased by 4.26 million barrels to 24.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 21.37%; total refined oil inventory increased by 5.21 million barrels to 50.65 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [6]. 3.4 Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed up 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%, reported at 2831 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46%, reported at 3298 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed up 1.7 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.37%, reported at 465.4 yuan/barrel; the main high - sulfur refined oil futures contract... (not fully described in the text) [8]. 3.6 Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market is priced by funds, with a low correlation with fundamentals. Bulls are bullish due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations; bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of January 29, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than the previous week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the previous week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 127.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 tons, a decrease of 0.17%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 84.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 42.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. As of January 30, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an increase of 1.88%. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15,150 (- 100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1935 (- 20) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1935 (- 20) US dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9950 (- 400) yuan; cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12300 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. 3.7 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 71 yuan, reported at 4981 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 90) yuan/ton. The basis was - 221 (- 19) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (- 4) yuan/ton. In the cost side, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 698 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 589 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; among them, the calcium carbide - based process was 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the ethylene - based process was 75.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In the cost side, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures side, the spot price of styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton; the basis was 175 yuan/ton, a weakening of 36 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 171.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 51.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.6 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. In the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. In the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [19]. 3.9 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a weakening of 100 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons; the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [22]. 3.10 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6715 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis was 24 yuan/ton, a weakening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons; the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons; the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 121 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton [24]. 3.11 PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 74 yuan, reported at 7172 yuan; the PX CFR rose 6 US dollars, reported at 898 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 59 yuan (- 12), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 12). In terms of PX production, the production in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian production was 82.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Regarding the plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and the production of Fujian United Petrochemical fluctuated. The PTA production was 77.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. Regarding the plants, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish rebound [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Oscillating bullish [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cause price rebounds, but the supply - surplus pattern remains, and there is still downward pressure on prices [1][7]. - **LPG**: Follows the decline of oil prices at the cost end, with a bearish fundamental outlook [10][13]. - **L**: Standard - product devices are gradually returning, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a bearish fundamental outlook [15][18]. - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and it oscillates and adjusts following the cost [19][22]. - **PVC**: Caustic soda continues to fall in price. Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, but high inventory restricts the upside [23][26]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [27][29]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The supply - demand situation is loose. Cautiously chase up [30][32]. - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [33][37]. - **Urea**: Cost - supported supply and demand are both strong, with a short - term rebound. Cautiously chase up [38][41]. - **LNG**: The cold wave has subsided, and US natural gas prices are weakening [42][46]. - **Asphalt**: Follows the decline of oil prices at the cost end due to repeated geopolitical situations in the Middle East [47][50]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it oscillates at a low level [51][54]. - **Soda ash**: The start - up rate has declined slightly, and it oscillates at a low level [55][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 1.72%, Brent rose 1.55%, and domestic SC fell 4.84% [5][6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term drivers are the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices [7]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintained its production policy unchanged in February, and the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased. US oil production is gradually rising, and Brazilian oil production has reached a record high. Indian oil imports have increased. US crude and refined product inventories have changed [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. SC should focus on the range of [450 - 465] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 2, the PG main contract closed at 4188 yuan/ton, a 1.09% decline [12]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices rebound due to geopolitical disturbances, and in the long - term, they are under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, pay attention to the range of [4150 - 4250] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Standard - product devices are gradually returning, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended that the industry pay attention to hedging opportunities on rallies [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [6800 - 7000] [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and it oscillates following the cost. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the shutdown ratio is about 22%. Pay attention to the verification of future demand [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Caustic soda continues to fall in price. Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, but high inventory restricts the upside. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [5000 - 5200] [26]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved. The supply - side devices are overhauled as planned, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the fundamentals are expected to improve [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks of the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range of [5080 - 5180] [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The low - valuation situation has been repaired. The domestic supply load has increased, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. There is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 should focus on the range of [3720 - 3800] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate is high, and overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. The demand has weakened significantly, and the cost support is weak and stable. There is short - term bullishness due to geopolitical conflicts and cold weather [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 should focus on the range of [2230 - 2280] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract price and other relevant data have changed [38]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load has continued to rise, and the demand is short - term strong. The social inventory is still at a relatively high level. There is a price ceiling and floor under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stabilization" policies [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 should focus on the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. LNG - **Market Review**: On February 2, the NG main contract closed at 3.263 US dollars/million British thermal units, a 26.11% decline [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - wave impact has gradually subsided, and gas prices are falling. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is supported by the winter season [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [3.245 - 3.665] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 3, the BU main contract closed at 3309 yuan/ton, a 0.30% decline [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil has increased, and the discount for domestic sales has decreased, which is beneficial to the raw - material end. However, due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the weak basis, there is a short - term callback risk [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the range of [3300 - 3400] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased at a high level. The disk oscillates at a low level. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [1080 - 1120]. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold - repair is further realized [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [56]. - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the start - up rate has declined. The real - estate demand is weak, and the demand for heavy soda is insufficient. The supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing up before the maintenance is further intensified [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [1180 - 1230] [58].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pig prices in Yanggu County is attributed to seasonal demand and supply adjustments, with overall supply remaining sufficient [1] Price Summary - As of January 26, the prices for live pigs and piglets were 6.7 yuan/500g and 15.5 yuan/500g, respectively, showing no change in live pig prices and a 6.90% increase in piglet prices compared to the previous week [1] - Year-on-year comparisons show that live pig prices increased by 13.56% and piglet prices surged by 63.16% compared to the same period last month [1] Market Analysis - The rise in pig prices is driven by seasonal demand due to the onset of the腌腊 (cured meat) season and pre-holiday stocking up, despite a generally sufficient supply [1] - The Yanggu County Development and Reform Bureau anticipates further price increases for live pigs and piglets during the peak stocking season leading up to the Spring Festival, influenced by large pig enterprises controlling prices and smallholders holding back sales [1] - Post-Spring Festival, a seasonal decline in demand is expected, which may lead to a concentration of pig sales and a potential price correction due to weakened terminal demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - **Strategy View**: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: No specific market price information provided. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy View**: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - **Strategy View**: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - **Strategy View**: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Oscillating strongly [2] - Ethylene glycol: Oversold rebound [2] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid shorting [2] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views and main logics for each product, considering factors such as supply - demand, cost, inventory, and geopolitical situations [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.08%, Brent down 2.91%, and domestic SC up 1.18%. As of January 16, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 426.04 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 5.97 million barrels to 256.9 million barrels, distillate inventories rose by 3.35 million barrels to 132.5 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 0.8 million barrels to 414.5 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term, the recent cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere drove up natural gas prices, which in turn led to an oil price rebound. The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, with global crude oil inventories accelerating the accumulation, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, so oil prices will enter a low - price range. Short - term, it is expected to rebound, but bearish in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 440] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the PG main contract closed at 4,120 yuan/ton, up 1.38% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,480 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,428 (-39) yuan/ton, and 4,815 (-25) yuan/ton respectively [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost of crude oil, and crude oil prices are bearish in the long - term. In terms of supply - demand, the commodity volume remains stable, downstream chemical demand weakens, and inventories accumulate, making the LPG fundamentals bearish [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline, and there is still room for LPG price compression. Pay attention to the range of PG [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6,666 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The L05 basis was - 176 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has no obvious pressure. In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. Linear production scheduling has increased, but the spot price has not risen enough, and the basis continues to weaken. The device restart plan has increased this week, and the operating rate has risen to 85%. It is the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the terminal restocking is not sustainable. There is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the impact of the expected tax reform on naphtha tariffs on the olefin industry chain [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6700 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6,624 yuan/ton, up 2.1%. The PP05 basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. The cost of propylene maintains an upward trend. Pay attention to the impact of changes in naphtha consumption tax on the olefin industry chain. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In January, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season, and downstream restocking power is insufficient. The shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profits are compressed and remain at a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4,743 yuan/ton, down 1.3%. The V05 basis was - 243 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 118 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventories are hitting new highs, and it is rising following the chemical sector. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling continuously, and the comprehensive gross profit in Shandong has been compressed again. The cost support of marginal devices has improved. The FOB price of Tianjin calcium carbide method has decreased. In 2025, the export growth rate was 47%. There is a short - term phenomenon of rushing to export, but there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The main strategy is positive arbitrage between months. The fundamentals maintain a weak reality pattern. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season, with no upward driving force [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of V [4750 - 4950] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 16, TA05 closed at 5,018 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: In terms of valuation, it is not low. The PTA processing fee has been repaired. On the supply side, domestic devices are overhauled as planned, and the overall overhaul intensity is high. On the demand side, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. In terms of inventory, PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January and February, but the pressure is not large. The cost side, PX, is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5260 - 5450] [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3,614 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: From a valuation perspective, it is relatively low. On the supply side, the domestic operating load has generally increased. Overseas devices have some changes and high overhaul expectations. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. It follows the cost fluctuation in the short - term and operates in a range [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3820 - 3890] [32]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis strengthened [35]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. On the supply side, the comprehensive profit has weakened, and the operating load of domestic methanol devices has declined from a high level. Overseas devices have generally reduced their loads. The expected arrival volume in January is about 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. On the demand side, it has weakened slightly. The cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand of methanol is slightly loose, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The expected arrival volume in January is 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2230 - 2280] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,801 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 31 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton, and the weighted comprehensive profit was 60.20 yuan/ton [38][40]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the operating rate of coal - based and gas - based urea devices has increased. The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, and the winter storage is progressing steadily. The exports of urea and fertilizers are relatively good but declining month - on - month. The social inventory is still at a relatively high level. Under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the support may weaken [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The benefit of winter storage is relatively limited, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is seasonally weak during the festival. The support from compound fertilizer demand is limited. Overseas natural gas price surges may affect the domestic market. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1770 - 1800] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.529 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 10.87% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.350 (+0.810) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 14.659 (+1.336) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the domestic LNG market price was 3,828 (+29) yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere has led to a significant drop in temperature, boosting the demand side and driving up the gas price. The domestic LNG retail profit is 336 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the natural gas production has increased year - on - year, and the number of US natural gas rigs has decreased. On the demand side, the proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the actual sales of heavy - duty trucks from January to November 2025 was 26.00%. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, supporting the gas price. However, the supply side is relatively sufficient, so the upward space of the gas price may be limited. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.866 - 5.496] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the BU main contract closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, up 2.69% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,080 (+10) yuan/ton, 3,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,180 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [46][47]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in buyers of Venezuelan crude oil exports and the decrease in discounts for domestic sales support the asphalt price. The asphalt comprehensive profit is 62 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.023 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month - on - month and 9.1% year - on - year. In 2025, the asphalt import and export volumes increased year - on - year. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still about 200 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1,039 yuan/ton, down 1.6%. The FG05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [51][52]. - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory has increased from a decline. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and there is no upward driving force. Before the cold repair is further realized, it should be treated bearishly. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with the daily melting volume remaining at 150,700 tons. The weak demand suppresses the upward space [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1030 - 1080] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 1.9%. The SA05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream production enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and the in - factory inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level. The daily melting volume of float glass has been declining continuously, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the short - term device restart has increased, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 84%. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased. The demand support is insufficient. Before the overhaul is further intensified, it should be treated bearishly [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The upstream of LLDPE and PP continues to reduce prices, with poor order - taking. The supply of LLDPE is expected to increase marginally, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP has a weak supply - demand situation, but the inventory is expected to turn to a decline in January, and the balance has improved. However, the weighted profit has been repaired, and the far - month disk has certain characteristics. Attention should be paid to the implementation of later maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level, with the basis strengthening slightly. The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory is slightly depleted, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and the fading of geopolitical risk premium [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene improves slightly, but the port inventory level is still high, and its own driving force is limited. Styrene is boosted by exports and device accidents, and its price is strong, driving up the price of pure benzene. The spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. For strategies, consider short - selling opportunities in BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand is tight, there is an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Consider short - selling opportunities in EB03 and narrowing the EB processing fee at high levels [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The spot price has a slight decline, the supply is at a high level, the demand has not improved significantly, and the factory inventory is hovering at a high level. Glass futures are also expected to continue the weak trend. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is shrinking in the off - season [6]. Urea Industry - Urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20th, and the spot price was slightly loose. The supply is at a high level, with the daily output rising to 200,000 tons. The demand side has some rigid needs, but the overall receiving enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the urea price will be in a weak shock in the short term [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures fell weakly, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged, with high inventory and weak demand, and the price will continue to be under pressure. PVC futures fluctuated and closed down, with the spot price remaining stable. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weakening, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is controversial. It is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, but the downward space is limited [8]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded. The geopolitical risk has eased, but the instability remains. The short - term oil price is supported by the shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak, and the upward space is limited. Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - The overseas raw material prices of natural rubber continue to fall, weakening the bottom support. The demand of some semi - steel tire enterprises with a large proportion of European exports is relatively good, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reducing period, the raw material price decline is limited, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [11]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices declined. The inventory of refineries and ports decreased, the upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased. Overall, no clear view on the future trend is given in the report [12]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, and the downward space is limited in the second quarter. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations before the Spring Festival. For MEG, there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, and the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations in the short term. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply is expected to decline, and it will follow the cost fluctuations [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all decreased on January 20, 2026, compared with January 19. The prices of some spot products also changed, such as the华东LDPE price decreased by 250 yuan/ton, and the 华东PP注塑 price decreased by 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.07 percentage points, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly. The PE enterprise inventory and social inventory both decreased. The PP device operating rate increased slightly, while the PP powder device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate decreased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of some regions also changed, such as the 内蒙北线现货 price decreased by 28 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed to different degrees, with the downstream - outer - purchased MTO device operating rate decreasing significantly by 8.85 percentage points [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also had different changes, such as the 纯苯华东现货 price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 苯乙烯华东现货 price decreased by 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, such as the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points, and the 苯酚 operating rate increased by 4.0 percentage points [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures decreased on January 20. The spot prices of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly. The glass factory inventory decreased, while the soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20, and the spot price was slightly loose [7]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The domestic urea daily output increased, and the weekly output also increased. The factory inventory and port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of caustic soda futures and some spot products decreased on January 20, while the PVC spot price remained stable, and the futures prices had different changes [8]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly. The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, but the total social inventory increased [8]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil price increased by 0.98 dollars/barrel on January 20, while the SC crude oil price decreased by 4.10 yuan/barrel. The prices of some refined oil products also changed, such as the ICE Gasoil price increased by 14.25 dollars/ton [9]. - **Market Factors**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has eased, but the instability remains. The shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan has supported the short - term oil price, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of natural rubber - related products such as 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) and 泰标混合胶 decreased on January 20 [11]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The natural rubber production in some countries decreased in November, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of automobile tires in China increased, and the domestic tire output and export volume increased. The inventory of natural rubber in China continued to accumulate [11]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of LPG in the South China region also decreased [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of polyester products and related raw materials had different changes, such as the 聚酯切片 price increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the MEG华东现货 price decreased by 36 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain decreased, such as the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points. The MEG port inventory decreased slightly, but the arrival expectation increased [13].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Latin America and the Middle East does not strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [2] - The current methanol valuation is low, and its outlook for the next year will improve marginally, with limited downside space. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [4] - The current domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [7] - Rubber is in a seasonally weak period. Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy will be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity price expectations and pre - export rush support PVC, in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is still the main approach until there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14] - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [17] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price is expected to bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season, but there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil on dips [26] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, and the rhythm should be grasped [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, if there are no further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.52%, at 437.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil products rose 3.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.12%, at 2538.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.07%, at 3060.00 yuan/ton [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.12 million barrels to 11.72 million barrels, a 10.56% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 1.06% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.08 million barrels to 6.74 million barrels, a 1.12% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.19 million barrels, an 18.21% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 7.62 million barrels, a 0.72% decrease; the total refined oil inventory increased by 2.10 million barrels to 47.25 million barrels, a 4.65% increase [1] 3.2 Polyester - Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 17 yuan/ton, southern Shandong by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main futures contract changed by 36.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2212 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Urea - Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 22 yuan/ton [6] - The main futures contract changed by - 19 yuan/ton, closing at 1772 yuan/ton [6] 3.4 Rubber - Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, with a technical bearish outlook. Bulls cited seasonal expectations and improved demand expectations, while bears pointed to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal weak demand [9] - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure, and it was in the pre - Spring Festival inventory production stage. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year [10] - As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons, and the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons [10] - In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1880 (- 20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was at 1885 (- 20) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at 9500 (- 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was at 11300 (- 200) yuan [11] 3.5 PVC - The PVC05 contract fell 2 yuan, closing at 4801 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4560 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 115 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (+100) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (- 20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 635 (- 23) yuan/ton [13] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 80%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 78.8%, a 0.8% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 43.9%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 311,000 (- 17,000) tons, and the social inventory was 1.144 million (+30,000) tons [13] 3.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure - benzene contract was 5827 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the pure - benzene basis was - 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7295 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton; the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a weakening of 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 157.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.75 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 38.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [16] - On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.86%, a 0.06% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 31,700 tons to 100,600 tons [16] - On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of three S products was 41.91%, a 1.02% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.40%, a 1.50% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 54.05%, a 7.34% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, unchanged [16] 3.7 Polyethylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 28 yuan/ton [19] - The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders was 29,200 tons, unchanged. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan expansion [19] 3.8 Polypropylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6565 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 14 yuan/ton [21] - The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons [21] - The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 185 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan narrowing [22] 3.9 PX - The PX03 contract rose 20 yuan, closing at 7106 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 879 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 25) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+2) [25] - In terms of PX load, China's load was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease; Asia's load was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, while overseas, Thailand's PTTG and Israel's Gadiv plants restarted [25] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 146,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 7000 tons [25] - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 331 US dollars (+6), South Korea's PX - MX was 142 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 78 US dollars (- 10) [25] 3.10 PTA - The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan, closing at 5030 yuan. The East China spot price rose 10 yuan, closing at 4970 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 42 yuan (- 2) [28] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted [28] - The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 2.005 million tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee rose 11 yuan to 314 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee fell 2 yuan to 368 yuan [28] 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan, closing at 3755 yuan. The East China spot price fell 28 yuan, closing at 3637 yuan. The basis was - 121 yuan (+11), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (- 4) [30] - On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Among them, the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol load was 80.2%, a 0.9% increase; the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol load was 71.2%, a 0.1% decrease. Tianye reduced its load in the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol segment; Chengdu Petrochemical shut down in the oil - chemical segment; overseas, a Kuwaiti plant shut down, and the US Sasol reduced its load [30] - The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55% [30] - The import arrival forecast was 148,000 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 16 - 18 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 795,000 tons, a 7000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol was - 904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol was - 771 yuan, and the profit of coal - to - ethylene - glycol was - 5 yuan. The cost of ethylene fell to 710 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines rose to 600 yuan [30]