1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. There is still a probability of short - term fluctuations due to overseas geopolitics. The previous short positions should be taken profit, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5]. - For urea, the import window has been opened due to the current situation of internal and external price differences, and combined with the expected production start - up recovery at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so short positions are recommended [8]. - For rubber, near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce the risk level and focus on risk prevention. Short - term trading according to the disk, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations are suggested. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended not to hold single - side positions, and hedge by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral to low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The export tax rebate cancellation has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the follow - up changes in production capacity and start - up should be concerned [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene production starts to rebound from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene continues to accumulate. It is recommended to gradually take profit as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. In the off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films may reach the peak, and the overall start - up rate fluctuates downward [23]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the pressure is relieved. The downstream start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to production investment mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [26]. - For PX, the PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high - level maintenance in the short - term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is limited by the off - season and the load gradually decreases. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The PTA processing fee is expected to remain stable at a high level, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, look for opportunities to go long at low levels [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large due to the off - season of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high start - up. The current valuation is moderately low year - on - year. There is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 10.10 yuan/barrel, a 2.17% increase, at 476.10 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.15% increase, at 2845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a 1.63% increase, at 3306.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.95 million barrels to 97.01 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.93 million barrels to 98.87 million barrels, a 2.00% increase; the total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.89 million barrels to 195.88 million barrels, a 2.02% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 2 yuan/ton, Lunan by 20 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2241 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 6 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated and consolidated following the commodity market. The bulls believed in an increase due to macro - bullish expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears thought the market would decline due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than last week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than last week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 tons, a 0.9 - ton increase and a 0.7% increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 15200 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10100 (0) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12200 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4971 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4730 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 588 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease. The factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+2.1) [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5995 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene active contract closed at 6034 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the styrene active contract closed at 7473 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase; the basis was 227 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan decrease; the BZN spread was 166.12 yuan/ton, a 1.75 - yuan increase; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 134.05 yuan/ton, a 79.75 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 10.86 tons, a 0.80 - ton increase. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6775 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, an 83 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 87 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase [24][25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 28 yuan to 7220 yuan, PX CFR increased by 9 US dollars to 909 US dollars. The basis was - 31 yuan (+47), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of devices, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing the load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to China, a 2.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December, the inventory was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 302 US dollars (+7), South Korea's PX - MX was 139 US dollars (- 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 91 US dollars (- 12) [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 38 yuan to 5230 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan to 5140 yuan. The basis was - 75 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan (+20). The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 tons, a 3.3 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 18 yuan to 366 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 26 yuan to 436 yuan [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 3733 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 12 yuan to 3623 yuan. The basis was - 110 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, among which the syngas - based production was 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based load was 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. In terms of syngas - based devices, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short - term, Guanghui was shut down and the restart was to be determined, and Sinochem had a load reduction due to an accident. In terms of petrochemical, Zhongke Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou were restarting. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian was shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 was restarting. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure was 1.5 tons on February 9. The port inventory was 93.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 1252 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 24 yuan. The cost - side ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 580 yuan [33].

能源化工日报 2026-02-09 2026/02/09 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 严梓桑（联系人） 油品分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 我们认为当前甲醇已经计价相当部分的利空因子，海外地缘短期仍有波动概率，前期布空止盈， 短期观望为主。 yanzs@wkqh.cn 2026/02/09 尿素 【行情资讯】 区域现货涨跌：山东变动 10 元/吨，河南变动 0 元/吨，河北变动 0 元/吨，湖北变动 0 元/吨， 江苏变动 10 元/吨，山西变动 0 元/吨，东北变动 0 元/吨，总体基差报-16 元/吨。 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动-2 元/吨，报 1776 元/吨。 【策略观点】 我 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反复拉扯，油价反弹。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊谈判仍有较大 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍 | | ★ | | 未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价短期 | | LPG | | 受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需方面， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存 | | | | 在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 标品装置陆续回归，仓单增加，基本面偏空，短期产业可关注逢高套保机 | | | 空头盘整 | 会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，农膜需求淡季，基差跌 | | ★ | | 至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，短期跟随成本震荡 ...

中国发展网讯山东省阳谷县发展和改革局从阳谷县闫楼镇顺鑫良种养殖场了解到，1月26日生猪、仔猪 价格分别为6.7元/500克、15.5元/500克，上周同期价格分别6.7元/500克、14.5元/500克，与上周相比生 猪价格持平，仔猪价格上涨6.90%；上月同期价格分别为5.9元/500克、9.5元/500克，与上月同期价格相 比分别上涨13.56%、63.16%。 该局预计，目前，处于春节备货旺季，叠加养殖端"缩量挺价"(大型猪企控价，散户惜售)，生猪、仔猪 价格将有所上涨。春节后消费淡季来临(腌腊、备货需求消退)，前期压栏的生猪可能集中出栏，叠加终 端需求疲软，价格将会出现阶段性回调。(阳谷县发展和改革局胡春云) 阳谷县发展和改革局分析了生猪价格变动原因：近期生猪价格上涨主要是季节性需求和供应调整共同推 动的，但整体供应充足。自12月下旬以来，气温有所下降，已进入腌腊旺季，季节性需求或拉动猪价温 和上涨，叠加元旦备货需求，拉动了猪肉市场的消费，市场供应暂时收紧。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - **Strategy View**: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: No specific market price information provided. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy View**: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - **Strategy View**: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - **Strategy View**: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Oscillating strongly [2] - Ethylene glycol: Oversold rebound [2] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid shorting [2] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views and main logics for each product, considering factors such as supply - demand, cost, inventory, and geopolitical situations [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.08%, Brent down 2.91%, and domestic SC up 1.18%. As of January 16, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 426.04 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 5.97 million barrels to 256.9 million barrels, distillate inventories rose by 3.35 million barrels to 132.5 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 0.8 million barrels to 414.5 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term, the recent cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere drove up natural gas prices, which in turn led to an oil price rebound. The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, with global crude oil inventories accelerating the accumulation, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, so oil prices will enter a low - price range. Short - term, it is expected to rebound, but bearish in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 440] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the PG main contract closed at 4,120 yuan/ton, up 1.38% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,480 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,428 (-39) yuan/ton, and 4,815 (-25) yuan/ton respectively [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost of crude oil, and crude oil prices are bearish in the long - term. In terms of supply - demand, the commodity volume remains stable, downstream chemical demand weakens, and inventories accumulate, making the LPG fundamentals bearish [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline, and there is still room for LPG price compression. Pay attention to the range of PG [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6,666 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The L05 basis was - 176 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has no obvious pressure. In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. Linear production scheduling has increased, but the spot price has not risen enough, and the basis continues to weaken. The device restart plan has increased this week, and the operating rate has risen to 85%. It is the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the terminal restocking is not sustainable. There is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the impact of the expected tax reform on naphtha tariffs on the olefin industry chain [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6700 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6,624 yuan/ton, up 2.1%. The PP05 basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. The cost of propylene maintains an upward trend. Pay attention to the impact of changes in naphtha consumption tax on the olefin industry chain. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In January, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season, and downstream restocking power is insufficient. The shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profits are compressed and remain at a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4,743 yuan/ton, down 1.3%. The V05 basis was - 243 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 118 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventories are hitting new highs, and it is rising following the chemical sector. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling continuously, and the comprehensive gross profit in Shandong has been compressed again. The cost support of marginal devices has improved. The FOB price of Tianjin calcium carbide method has decreased. In 2025, the export growth rate was 47%. There is a short - term phenomenon of rushing to export, but there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The main strategy is positive arbitrage between months. The fundamentals maintain a weak reality pattern. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season, with no upward driving force [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of V [4750 - 4950] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 16, TA05 closed at 5,018 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: In terms of valuation, it is not low. The PTA processing fee has been repaired. On the supply side, domestic devices are overhauled as planned, and the overall overhaul intensity is high. On the demand side, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. In terms of inventory, PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January and February, but the pressure is not large. The cost side, PX, is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5260 - 5450] [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3,614 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: From a valuation perspective, it is relatively low. On the supply side, the domestic operating load has generally increased. Overseas devices have some changes and high overhaul expectations. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. It follows the cost fluctuation in the short - term and operates in a range [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3820 - 3890] [32]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis strengthened [35]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. On the supply side, the comprehensive profit has weakened, and the operating load of domestic methanol devices has declined from a high level. Overseas devices have generally reduced their loads. The expected arrival volume in January is about 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. On the demand side, it has weakened slightly. The cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand of methanol is slightly loose, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The expected arrival volume in January is 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2230 - 2280] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,801 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 31 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton, and the weighted comprehensive profit was 60.20 yuan/ton [38][40]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the operating rate of coal - based and gas - based urea devices has increased. The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, and the winter storage is progressing steadily. The exports of urea and fertilizers are relatively good but declining month - on - month. The social inventory is still at a relatively high level. Under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the support may weaken [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The benefit of winter storage is relatively limited, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is seasonally weak during the festival. The support from compound fertilizer demand is limited. Overseas natural gas price surges may affect the domestic market. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1770 - 1800] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.529 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 10.87% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.350 (+0.810) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 14.659 (+1.336) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the domestic LNG market price was 3,828 (+29) yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere has led to a significant drop in temperature, boosting the demand side and driving up the gas price. The domestic LNG retail profit is 336 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the natural gas production has increased year - on - year, and the number of US natural gas rigs has decreased. On the demand side, the proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the actual sales of heavy - duty trucks from January to November 2025 was 26.00%. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, supporting the gas price. However, the supply side is relatively sufficient, so the upward space of the gas price may be limited. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.866 - 5.496] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the BU main contract closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, up 2.69% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,080 (+10) yuan/ton, 3,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,180 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [46][47]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in buyers of Venezuelan crude oil exports and the decrease in discounts for domestic sales support the asphalt price. The asphalt comprehensive profit is 62 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.023 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month - on - month and 9.1% year - on - year. In 2025, the asphalt import and export volumes increased year - on - year. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still about 200 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1,039 yuan/ton, down 1.6%. The FG05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [51][52]. - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory has increased from a decline. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and there is no upward driving force. Before the cold repair is further realized, it should be treated bearishly. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with the daily melting volume remaining at 150,700 tons. The weak demand suppresses the upward space [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1030 - 1080] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 1.9%. The SA05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream production enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and the in - factory inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level. The daily melting volume of float glass has been declining continuously, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the short - term device restart has increased, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 84%. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased. The demand support is insufficient. Before the overhaul is further intensified, it should be treated bearishly [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The upstream of LLDPE and PP continues to reduce prices, with poor order - taking. The supply of LLDPE is expected to increase marginally, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP has a weak supply - demand situation, but the inventory is expected to turn to a decline in January, and the balance has improved. However, the weighted profit has been repaired, and the far - month disk has certain characteristics. Attention should be paid to the implementation of later maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level, with the basis strengthening slightly. The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory is slightly depleted, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and the fading of geopolitical risk premium [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene improves slightly, but the port inventory level is still high, and its own driving force is limited. Styrene is boosted by exports and device accidents, and its price is strong, driving up the price of pure benzene. The spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. For strategies, consider short - selling opportunities in BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand is tight, there is an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Consider short - selling opportunities in EB03 and narrowing the EB processing fee at high levels [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The spot price has a slight decline, the supply is at a high level, the demand has not improved significantly, and the factory inventory is hovering at a high level. Glass futures are also expected to continue the weak trend. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is shrinking in the off - season [6]. Urea Industry - Urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20th, and the spot price was slightly loose. The supply is at a high level, with the daily output rising to 200,000 tons. The demand side has some rigid needs, but the overall receiving enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the urea price will be in a weak shock in the short term [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures fell weakly, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged, with high inventory and weak demand, and the price will continue to be under pressure. PVC futures fluctuated and closed down, with the spot price remaining stable. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weakening, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is controversial. It is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, but the downward space is limited [8]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded. The geopolitical risk has eased, but the instability remains. The short - term oil price is supported by the shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak, and the upward space is limited. Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - The overseas raw material prices of natural rubber continue to fall, weakening the bottom support. The demand of some semi - steel tire enterprises with a large proportion of European exports is relatively good, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reducing period, the raw material price decline is limited, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [11]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices declined. The inventory of refineries and ports decreased, the upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased. Overall, no clear view on the future trend is given in the report [12]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, and the downward space is limited in the second quarter. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations before the Spring Festival. For MEG, there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, and the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations in the short term. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply is expected to decline, and it will follow the cost fluctuations [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all decreased on January 20, 2026, compared with January 19. The prices of some spot products also changed, such as the华东LDPE price decreased by 250 yuan/ton, and the 华东PP注塑 price decreased by 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.07 percentage points, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly. The PE enterprise inventory and social inventory both decreased. The PP device operating rate increased slightly, while the PP powder device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate decreased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of some regions also changed, such as the 内蒙北线现货 price decreased by 28 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed to different degrees, with the downstream - outer - purchased MTO device operating rate decreasing significantly by 8.85 percentage points [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also had different changes, such as the 纯苯华东现货 price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 苯乙烯华东现货 price decreased by 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, such as the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points, and the 苯酚 operating rate increased by 4.0 percentage points [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures decreased on January 20. The spot prices of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly. The glass factory inventory decreased, while the soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20, and the spot price was slightly loose [7]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The domestic urea daily output increased, and the weekly output also increased. The factory inventory and port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of caustic soda futures and some spot products decreased on January 20, while the PVC spot price remained stable, and the futures prices had different changes [8]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly. The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, but the total social inventory increased [8]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil price increased by 0.98 dollars/barrel on January 20, while the SC crude oil price decreased by 4.10 yuan/barrel. The prices of some refined oil products also changed, such as the ICE Gasoil price increased by 14.25 dollars/ton [9]. - **Market Factors**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has eased, but the instability remains. The shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan has supported the short - term oil price, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of natural rubber - related products such as 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) and 泰标混合胶 decreased on January 20 [11]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The natural rubber production in some countries decreased in November, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of automobile tires in China increased, and the domestic tire output and export volume increased. The inventory of natural rubber in China continued to accumulate [11]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of LPG in the South China region also decreased [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of polyester products and related raw materials had different changes, such as the 聚酯切片 price increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the MEG华东现货 price decreased by 36 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain decreased, such as the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points. The MEG port inventory decreased slightly, but the arrival expectation increased [13].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Latin America and the Middle East does not strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [2] - The current methanol valuation is low, and its outlook for the next year will improve marginally, with limited downside space. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [4] - The current domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [7] - Rubber is in a seasonally weak period. Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy will be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity price expectations and pre - export rush support PVC, in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is still the main approach until there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14] - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [17] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price is expected to bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season, but there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil on dips [26] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, and the rhythm should be grasped [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, if there are no further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.52%, at 437.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil products rose 3.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.12%, at 2538.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.07%, at 3060.00 yuan/ton [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.12 million barrels to 11.72 million barrels, a 10.56% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 1.06% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.08 million barrels to 6.74 million barrels, a 1.12% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.19 million barrels, an 18.21% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 7.62 million barrels, a 0.72% decrease; the total refined oil inventory increased by 2.10 million barrels to 47.25 million barrels, a 4.65% increase [1] 3.2 Polyester - Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 17 yuan/ton, southern Shandong by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main futures contract changed by 36.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2212 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Urea - Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 22 yuan/ton [6] - The main futures contract changed by - 19 yuan/ton, closing at 1772 yuan/ton [6] 3.4 Rubber - Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, with a technical bearish outlook. Bulls cited seasonal expectations and improved demand expectations, while bears pointed to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal weak demand [9] - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure, and it was in the pre - Spring Festival inventory production stage. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year [10] - As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons, and the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons [10] - In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1880 (- 20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was at 1885 (- 20) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at 9500 (- 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was at 11300 (- 200) yuan [11] 3.5 PVC - The PVC05 contract fell 2 yuan, closing at 4801 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4560 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 115 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (+100) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (- 20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 635 (- 23) yuan/ton [13] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 80%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 78.8%, a 0.8% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 43.9%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 311,000 (- 17,000) tons, and the social inventory was 1.144 million (+30,000) tons [13] 3.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure - benzene contract was 5827 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the pure - benzene basis was - 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7295 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton; the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a weakening of 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 157.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.75 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 38.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [16] - On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.86%, a 0.06% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 31,700 tons to 100,600 tons [16] - On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of three S products was 41.91%, a 1.02% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.40%, a 1.50% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 54.05%, a 7.34% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, unchanged [16] 3.7 Polyethylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 28 yuan/ton [19] - The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders was 29,200 tons, unchanged. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan expansion [19] 3.8 Polypropylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6565 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 14 yuan/ton [21] - The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons [21] - The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 185 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan narrowing [22] 3.9 PX - The PX03 contract rose 20 yuan, closing at 7106 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 879 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 25) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+2) [25] - In terms of PX load, China's load was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease; Asia's load was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, while overseas, Thailand's PTTG and Israel's Gadiv plants restarted [25] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 146,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 7000 tons [25] - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 331 US dollars (+6), South Korea's PX - MX was 142 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 78 US dollars (- 10) [25] 3.10 PTA - The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan, closing at 5030 yuan. The East China spot price rose 10 yuan, closing at 4970 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 42 yuan (- 2) [28] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted [28] - The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 2.005 million tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee rose 11 yuan to 314 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee fell 2 yuan to 368 yuan [28] 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan, closing at 3755 yuan. The East China spot price fell 28 yuan, closing at 3637 yuan. The basis was - 121 yuan (+11), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (- 4) [30] - On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Among them, the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol load was 80.2%, a 0.9% increase; the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol load was 71.2%, a 0.1% decrease. Tianye reduced its load in the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol segment; Chengdu Petrochemical shut down in the oil - chemical segment; overseas, a Kuwaiti plant shut down, and the US Sasol reduced its load [30] - The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55% [30] - The import arrival forecast was 148,000 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 16 - 18 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 795,000 tons, a 7000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol was - 904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol was - 771 yuan, and the profit of coal - to - ethylene - glycol was - 5 yuan. The cost of ethylene fell to 710 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines rose to 600 yuan [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. - For crude oil, the current Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. - For rubber, currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude - oil futures rose 11.70 yuan/barrel, or 2.75%, to 437.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that total refined - oil inventories increased by 0.51 million barrels to 45.15 million barrels, a 1.15% increase month - on - month [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation is not strongly positive for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 86 yuan [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1783 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price showed signs of weakening. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 breaks below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy is adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4940 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton. The basis was - 320 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Factory inventory was 32.8 million tons (+1.9), and social inventory was 111.4 million tons (+3.7) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged at 5320 yuan/ton, and the futures price was also unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 88 yuan/ton to 6895 yuan/ton. The basis weakened. The upstream operating rate of the supply side was 70.92%, up 0.22%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 million tons [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with large room for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6674 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, up 0.04% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory increased by 2.47 million tons to 39.54 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.17 million tons to 2.93 million tons [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6514 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis weakened by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, down 1.03% month - on - month. Production - enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons to 46.77 million tons, trader inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 20.47 million tons, and port inventory increased by 0.48 million tons to 7.11 million tons [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows that global oil inventories are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in Q1 next year [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 70 yuan to 7308 yuan. PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 897 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 81.2%, up 0.3% month - on - month. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 million tons, up 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude - oil price [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 34 yuan to 5142 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 5100 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 48 yuan. The PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 4 was 203 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side will face pressure. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage after the Spring Festival. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 14 yuan to 3880 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 3697 yuan. The basis was - 150 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan. The ethylene - glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2% month - on - month. The port inventory was 80.2 million tons, an increase of 7.7 million tons [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, the valuation may need to be compressed [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].