低利率时代股权配置

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A股策略周报:开启新征程-20250702
Dongxing Securities· 2025-07-02 08:55
Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a significant possibility of breaking through the 3400 points, indicating the start of a new structural bull market for A-shares, with the current market trend strengthening [4][8]. - The core logic includes the contradiction between globalization and de-globalization, emphasizing that China's global layout cannot be reversed, and the restructuring of global trade interests will accelerate after the trade war [4][8]. - China's manufacturing sector is highlighted as the core of the global supply chain, maintaining a competitive advantage due to its scale, supply chain integrity, innovation capability, and cost efficiency [4][8]. - The enhancement of China's military strength is seen as a strategic guarantee for its globalization process, boosting confidence in Chinese assets globally [4][8]. - The quality of assets in the Chinese stock market is gradually improving, with a shift in IPO issuance from focusing on quantity to enhancing existing stock quality, leading to a significant reduction in IPO financing scale starting in 2024 [4][8]. - Institutional development is becoming increasingly refined, with improved market regulation and stability mechanisms, enhancing investor protection and increasing the costs of violations for listed companies [4][8]. - The demand for equity allocation is growing in a low-interest-rate environment, with a notable increase in the willingness of residents to allocate savings to the stock market as the market shows signs of recovery [4][8]. - The pace of economic recovery is expected to be moderate and prolonged, characterized by a transition between old and new driving forces, leading to a slow bull market in the stock market [4][8]. Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The market is showing a healthy upward trend, with indices rising significantly, particularly driven by heavyweight stocks, and a healthy rotation of market hotspots [5][9]. - The report indicates that sectors such as military industry and solid-state batteries are showing strong performance, suggesting good sustainability of industry hotspots [5][9]. - As the semi-annual report period approaches, the market is expected to return to an industry logic-driven trend, with a focus on performance-oriented market styles [5][9]. - High-dividend blue-chip companies are anticipated to gain market favor, alongside growth-oriented sectors, creating two stable upward forces in the market [5][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with favorable economic conditions as the market enters the performance period in July, with expectations for growth companies to deliver results [9]. - Sectors such as military, pharmaceuticals, automotive, home appliances, and TMT are highlighted as having good economic prospects, while high-dividend sectors are also emphasized due to their increasing scarcity in a declining interest rate environment [9].