焦煤国内平衡表上半年回顾&下半年如何看待钢焦互动？ 20250925 摘要 2024 年初至 2025 年 6 月，焦煤期货和现货价格均大幅下跌约 50%， 尽管期间有小幅反弹，但整体呈现下行趋势，主要受国内产量增长和中 美关税博弈影响。近期因国庆补库需求，价格再次小幅上涨。 2025 年 1-7 月，国内焦煤产量同比增长近 5%，但进口量同比减少，特 别是来自蒙古和美国的进口量下降，尽管通过增加从俄罗斯和澳大利亚 的进口部分对冲了减量。 2025 年 1-8 月，中国粗钢产量数据存在争议，但出口量同比增长显著， 主要转向非洲、中东和南美等新兴市场，抵消了对美国出口的减少。 2025 年上半年焦煤价格走弱，主要由于下游煤炭与钢铁互动环节中的 库存结构性问题，上游矿山库存增加，而下游独立焦企和钢企库存下降， 企业采取现用现采购模式。 6 月份以来焦煤价格上涨，主要原因是下游企业补库需求增加，导致矿 山端库存下滑，以及钢铁生产利润较好，但近期部分钢材品种利润有所 回落。 Q&A 2025 年上半年国内焦煤市场的整体走势如何？ 2025 年上半年，国内焦煤市场经历了显著的价格波动。回顾 2024 年，由于 山西煤矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a systematic response framework to the current US-China tariff conflict, emphasizing strategic adjustments in trade, domestic consumption, and the role of private enterprises in global markets. Group 1: Precise Countermeasures and Resilience Building - The "less loss is a win" countermeasure logic suggests a targeted response to US unilateral tariff policies, focusing on key areas that threaten national core interests through tiered tariffs and industry countermeasures [3] - China's trade structure has strategically adjusted, with exports to the US decreasing from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries increased from 38.7% to 47.8%, and ASEAN market share rose to 16.4% [4] Group 2: Domestic Demand Revitalization and Consumption Upgrade - The strategy aims to leverage the consumption potential of 1.4 billion people, making domestic demand a cornerstone of the economy by optimizing income distribution and establishing a unified national market [5] - New consumption scenarios are being developed, promoting the integration of online and offline ecosystems, with online retail expected to exceed 35% by 2024, serving as a key buffer against foreign trade fluctuations [6] Group 3: Support for Private Enterprises and Globalization Breakthrough - The share of private enterprises in foreign trade is increasing from 55% to 60%, focusing on market diversification by shifting production capacity to Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, thereby reducing reliance on single markets [7] - Innovative models for going global are exemplified by the collaboration between Great Wall Motors and FF, which utilized technology licensing and localization to overcome a 147.5% tariff barrier, launching the "Chinese-American hybrid" model FX Super One with over 10,000 orders on the first day [8] Group 4: Release of Institutional Opening Dividends - The gradual reduction of the negative list for foreign investment and pilot testing in free trade zones are part of a strategy to balance openness and stability [9] - Efforts to enhance global governance and dialogue include aligning with high-standard agreements like CPTPP and DEPA, and establishing a new trade rule system through the Belt and Road Initiative to strengthen international rule-making authority [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent extension of the tariff suspension between China and the U.S. provides a temporary reprieve for businesses, particularly in the cross-border e-commerce sector, amidst ongoing trade tensions [1][4][8] - The U.S. has agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for an additional 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while retaining a remaining 10% tariff [1][2] - Similarly, China will suspend the 24% tariff on U.S. goods for 90 days and maintain the remaining 10% tariff, while also taking necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. [1][2] Group 2 - The article reviews the history of the tariff war, highlighting significant increases in tariffs from the U.S. and corresponding retaliatory measures from China, with tariffs reaching as high as 125% at one point [2] - The recent negotiations are seen as a continuation of the Geneva round, which resulted in a temporary ceasefire and a significant reduction in tariffs [2][5] - The upcoming negotiations are expected to focus more on structural issues such as industrial subsidies and technology controls, rather than solely on tariffs, indicating that further extensions of tariff suspensions may be likely [5][6][7] Group 3 - The market is adjusting expectations, with analysts suggesting that future agreements may involve minor adjustments and further extensions rather than a complete rollback of tariffs [6][7] - The current high tariff rates on cross-border e-commerce, which hover around 55%, are becoming less distinctive as other countries face similar increases in tariffs [11][12][16] - The article suggests that businesses should prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty and potential ongoing negotiations, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to the evolving trade landscape [9][17]

7月28日至29日，中美双方在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩举行了第三轮经贸对话。直到今天上午，会议后的联合公报才由中方正式对外发布。尽管会谈已经结束超 过一周，但这一公报的发布并未如预期迅速推出。根据中方透露，导致延迟的原因并非来自中国方面，而是由于美国总统特朗普一直未在相关声明上签字。 事实上，早在今年5月，中美双方就在瑞士日内瓦达成了关于贸易问题的"停火协议"，在协议中，双方同意相互减少115%的关税，其中24%的关税延期90天 执行，这一期限原定于8月12日到期。然而，尽管斯德哥尔摩的会谈已结束，特朗普依旧没有签署相关的行政命令，也未就是否延续这24%的关税征收作出 明确决定，直到8月11日美东时间深夜，他才终于签署了文件，同意再延长90天。 那么，为什么在第三轮经贸磋商完成后，特朗普如此迟迟才做出决定？从他在社交媒体上的公开言论来看，特朗普对本次会谈的成果表示肯定，但延迟签字 的原因实际上更多是出于政治考虑。他希望避免给外界留下他在对华问题上妥协的印象。事实上，进入8月以来，特朗普在对华政策上态度强硬，不仅在采 购俄罗斯能源问题上对中国提出警告，还扬言将对中国加征关税，并点名批评华裔企业家，尤其是英特尔公司的首 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the complexities of the US-China tariff situation, highlighting the misleading narratives surrounding the percentage of tariffs imposed by each country [1][3] - Prior to Trump's presidency, the average tariffs were 3.1% for the US on Chinese goods and 8% for China on US goods, reflecting a common trend where developing countries have higher tariffs than developed ones [3] - By the beginning of Biden's administration in 2021, the US had an average tariff rate of 19.3% on Chinese goods, while China imposed approximately 20.7% on US products [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's second term saw an increase of 20% tariffs related to the fentanyl issue, with a total of 30% tariffs imposed, although only 10% were actually collected [4][6] - The weighted average tariff for US goods exported to China is estimated to be between 45% and 50%, indicating significant costs for importers and consumers in both countries [5][6] - The article emphasizes that high tariffs lead to a trade war that ultimately harms both nations, reinforcing the idea that there are no winners in such conflicts [8][9] Group 3 - The strategic implications of the tariff war are significant, as it serves as a geopolitical weapon rather than just a trade policy tool, indicating a shift in how tariffs are perceived and utilized [10] - The ongoing nature of the tariff battle suggests that companies must prepare for a long-term high-tariff environment, as the situation remains unpredictable [9][10] - The article concludes that unilateral protectionism cannot halt the natural progression of industrial development and globalization, with China focusing on building a self-sufficient supply chain [8][10]

Core Points - The article discusses a significant geopolitical event involving a summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which is seen as a pivotal moment for global order and energy security [1][2] - The proposed "peace plan" includes conditions that could benefit Russia, such as a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, delayed territorial disputes, lifting sanctions, and supporting Russia's return to the G8 [2][3] - The summit's location in Alaska is strategically chosen to facilitate discussions while avoiding international legal repercussions for Putin [5][6] Group 1: Geopolitical Implications - The peace plan aims to address Russia's economic struggles due to sanctions, potentially restoring $12 billion in annual energy export revenue [2][3] - The summit could reshape US-Russia relations, impacting global energy markets and geopolitical alliances, particularly concerning China and Europe [7][12] - Ukraine's interests are at risk, as the proposed negotiations may exclude its government from critical discussions, leading to heightened tensions in Europe [6][13] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The lifting of sanctions could significantly benefit the Russian economy, which has seen a 37% reduction in energy export revenues due to ongoing sanctions [2][12] - Trump's strategy appears to leverage energy trade as a tool against China, with potential sanctions on Chinese imports if they continue to engage with Russian energy [9][12] - The geopolitical shifts may lead to increased energy costs for China, which relies on Russia for 28% of its oil and 34% of its natural gas imports [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: This week, the fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, with the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at ports rising by a total of 250 yuan/ton. After a phased correction at the end of July, the coke futures rebounded strongly in the first week of August. With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market logic has returned to industry anti - involution policies and the commodity's fundamentals. Overall, this week, coke supply and demand remained stable. Considering the repeated supply disruptions of coking coal and the approaching peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), the market sentiment is still optimistic, driving the coke futures to fluctuate strongly [3][28]. - **Coking Coal**: The impact of the coal industry's anti - involution policy is still fermenting. High - frequency data this week showed a decline in domestic coking coal production, supporting the coking coal futures to maintain a strong trend. In the spot market, the domestic coking coal market stabilized this week, and the price of Mongolian coal did not strengthen again after last week's high - level correction, increasing market wait - and - see sentiment. Overall, this week, coking coal supply contracted and demand increased slightly, with marginal improvement in fundamentals. The key lies in whether the anti - involution campaign will have a long - term and significant impact on coking coal supply. Considering that the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on the 7th, and many countries strongly oppose it. Although the US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, there are still many uncertainties in implementation [6]. - On August 8th, the online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT Company had all 128,000 tons of 1/3 coking raw coal with specific specifications (A18.5, V33, S1.1, G70, Mt4.0) at a starting price of $73.4/ton (ex - tax) end in failure. The supply location is the Ganqimaodu Port supervision area in China, and the final supply date is September 30, 2025 [7]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Flat - price) | 1,470 | +3.52% | +3.52% | - 13.02% | - 24.23% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Out - of - warehouse) | 1,440 | +1.41% | +2.86% | - 11.11% | - 19.10% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,150 | - 0.86% | 0.00% | - 2.54% | - 20.69% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,540 | +0.65% | +3.36% | +3.36% | - 22.22% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 | 0.00% | 0.00% | +7.84% | - 13.16% | [8] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,653.5 | - 0.27 | 1,666.0 | 1,631.0 | 16,588 | - 9,039 | 19,408 | - 2,502 | | Coking Coal | | 1,227.0 | +0.49 | 1,237.5 | 1,202.0 | 2,099,880 | | 660,256 | +10,835 | [11] Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), coking coal (mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other production and procurement - related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation [12][16][22] Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fifth - round price increase was implemented this week, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly due to stable supply - demand, coking coal supply disruptions, and approaching peak seasons [3][28]. - **Coking Coal**: The anti - involution policy has led to supply contraction and marginal improvement in fundamentals. The futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend as the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term [3][28].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected extension of the US-China tariff truce for an additional 90 days after a lengthy negotiation in Stockholm, which was initially set to expire on August 12 [1][3] - The negotiations began earlier in the year, with the US imposing tariffs of up to 125% on Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate, leading to a chaotic global trade environment [3][5] - The discussions in Stockholm involved contentious issues such as rare earth export quotas, agricultural procurement lists, and intellectual property protection, with both sides showing a willingness to compromise [5][6] Group 2 - The US threatened to impose secondary tariffs on China if it did not limit energy imports from Russia, which China vehemently opposed as interference in its internal affairs [5][6] - Both parties made concessions: the US agreed to delay secondary tariffs on Russia, while China committed to expanding imports of US beef and corn [6] - The article notes that China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year and a trade surplus with the US increasing by 12%, indicating China's strong position in the negotiations [9]

Group 1 - The fund aims to achieve investment returns higher than the performance benchmark while strictly controlling investment risks and maintaining high liquidity [2][3] - The fund's total share at the end of the reporting period is 5,713,043,677.31 shares [2] - The fund is classified as a low-risk money market fund, with expected risks and returns lower than equity, mixed, and bond funds [2] Group 2 - The fund's net value yield for the past three months is 0.3051% for Class A, 0.3652% for Class B, and 0.3051% for Class D, with the performance benchmark yield being 0.3366% [10][11] - The fund's net value yield for the past six months is 0.5852% for Class A, 0.7050% for Class B, and 0.5853% for Class D, with the performance benchmark yield being 0.6695% [10][11] - The fund's net value yield for the past year is 1.2747% for Class A, 1.5172% for Class B, and 1.2743% for Class D, with the performance benchmark yield being 1.3500% [10][11] Group 3 - The fund's investment strategy involves active management of the asset portfolio based on in-depth research of macroeconomic trends, monetary policy changes, and market supply-demand conditions [2] - The fund's financial indicators for the reporting period include a total asset allocation of 70.71% in bonds and asset-backed securities [13] - The fund has not experienced any significant deviations from its investment strategy or any violations of legal regulations during the reporting period [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose," with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible, likely in September - October. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools such as relending. There is also a possibility of restarting treasury bond trading [4][32]. - The issuance of interest - rate bonds in the second half of the year may exceed 14 trillion yuan. The supply pressure will be high in the third quarter, and there may be an additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [4][36]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Policy and Liquidity Monitoring - **Implementation of a Package of Monetary Policy Measures with a Continuously "Moderately Loose" Tone**: The monetary policy framework has been continuously adjusted, with the policy - rate attribute of MLF fading out. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has become the core policy rate. The policy tone remains "moderately loose," with RRR cuts and interest rate cuts implemented again, and structural tools continuously exerting their effects. Open - market operations have been marginally relaxed, and more attention has been paid to asset prices [6][7][9]. - **Quarterly Decline in the Central Level of Capital Interest Rates**: In the first quarter, due to the central bank's emphasis on preventing capital idling, the capital market was relatively tight. In the second quarter, after the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts and the marginal easing of the central bank's attitude, the capital interest rates declined. The spread between DR007 and R007 remained at a low level [13]. 3.2 Operating Characteristics of the Interest - Rate Bond Market - **Year - on - Year Increase in the Issuance of All Types of Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the first half of 2025, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds reached 16.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. The issuance of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all increased. Special treasury bonds worth over 1 trillion yuan were issued [16]. - **Downward Trend in the Central Level of Interest - Rate Bond Yields**: The yields of interest - rate bonds generally showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the central level declining quarterly. The operation of the 10 - year treasury bond yield can be divided into three rounds, with different influencing factors in each round [21][22]. - **Widening but Still Low Term Spread and Narrowing Local Bond Spread**: In the second quarter, the 10Y - 1Y spread widened marginally but remained at a historically low level. The local bond spread narrowed, which may be related to the previous decline in treasury bond yields and increased trading and allocation of local bonds by some institutions [28]. 3.3 Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - **Possible RRR Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts and Strengthened Use of Structural Tools**: Due to the uncertainty of external and domestic demand increasing the pressure on economic recovery, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" in the second half of the year, with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools [32]. - **Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds May Exceed 14 Trillion Yuan and Declining Yield Central Level**: In the second half of the year, the issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 14 trillion yuan, with high supply pressure in the third quarter and a possible additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The central level of yields will continue to decline, and the core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [36][39].