峰会地点选在阿拉斯加，并非偶然。从地理位置来看，阿拉斯加与俄罗斯仅隔着88公里宽的白令海峡，这将大幅缩短俄方代表团的飞行时间至约5小时；从 历史角度而言，阿拉斯加曾于1867年以720万美元的价格由沙俄售予美国，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫对此解读为"俄美近邻关系"的象征。 乌克兰的牺牲品：一份充满诱惑的"和平方案" 然而，更深层次的考量，是其背后的政治算计。阿拉斯加作为美国领土，却远离美国本土，这使得普京能够规避国际刑事法院的通缉风险，因为阿拉斯加并 不在该法院的管辖范围内。同时，特朗普此举也向国内选民传递了"强势主场"的信号，并向俄方暗示"领土问题可谈"，他在8月8日提及和平协议时便明确表 示："将有一些领土交换，对双方都有利"。 凛冬将至：特朗普、普京与世界棋局的阿拉斯加赌注 2025年8月，世界屏息凝视。一场关乎地缘政治、能源安全、甚至全球秩序的博弈，在阿拉斯加冰冷的风雪中悄然展开。美国总统特朗普，通过其惯用的社 交媒体渠道，宣布将于8月15日在此与俄罗斯总统普京举行峰会——俄乌冲突爆发后，双方最高领导人的首次面对面会晤，也是自2021年6月以来美俄领导人 的首次直接对话。 这场峰会的催化剂，是一份由波兰媒 ...

黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 8 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 观望情绪增加，煤焦高位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：本周，焦炭第五轮涨价落地，港口准一级湿熄焦价格合计上涨 250 元/吨。期货市场方面，焦炭主力合约经历过 7 月底的阶段性回调，市场 看涨情绪得以休整，8 月首周焦炭期货重回偏强运行。随着中美关税博弈 和国内政策预期兑现，宏观不确定性下降，现阶段市场逻辑逐渐回归产业 反内卷政策以及商品自身基本面。整体来看，本周焦炭供需基本持稳运 行，近期成本端焦煤供应扰动仍有反复，叠加金九银十临近，市场氛围仍 偏乐观，驱动焦炭主力合约偏强震荡运行。 焦煤：煤炭行业反内卷政策影响仍在发酵，本周高频数据也显示国内焦煤 产量有所下滑，供应端支撑焦煤期货仍维持偏强走势。现货市场方面，本 周国内炼焦煤市场企稳运行，蒙煤价格在上周高位回落后，也暂未再次走 强，市场观望情绪增加。整体来看，本周焦煤供应有所收缩，需求小幅增 加，基本面边际改善，但后续关键仍在于反内卷整治对焦煤供应是否有长 期且明显的影响，考虑到供应收缩预期短期尚未证伪，焦煤期货预计仍将 维持偏强震荡运行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose," with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible, likely in September - October. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools such as relending. There is also a possibility of restarting treasury bond trading [4][32]. - The issuance of interest - rate bonds in the second half of the year may exceed 14 trillion yuan. The supply pressure will be high in the third quarter, and there may be an additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [4][36]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Policy and Liquidity Monitoring - **Implementation of a Package of Monetary Policy Measures with a Continuously "Moderately Loose" Tone**: The monetary policy framework has been continuously adjusted, with the policy - rate attribute of MLF fading out. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has become the core policy rate. The policy tone remains "moderately loose," with RRR cuts and interest rate cuts implemented again, and structural tools continuously exerting their effects. Open - market operations have been marginally relaxed, and more attention has been paid to asset prices [6][7][9]. - **Quarterly Decline in the Central Level of Capital Interest Rates**: In the first quarter, due to the central bank's emphasis on preventing capital idling, the capital market was relatively tight. In the second quarter, after the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts and the marginal easing of the central bank's attitude, the capital interest rates declined. The spread between DR007 and R007 remained at a low level [13]. 3.2 Operating Characteristics of the Interest - Rate Bond Market - **Year - on - Year Increase in the Issuance of All Types of Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the first half of 2025, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds reached 16.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. The issuance of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all increased. Special treasury bonds worth over 1 trillion yuan were issued [16]. - **Downward Trend in the Central Level of Interest - Rate Bond Yields**: The yields of interest - rate bonds generally showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the central level declining quarterly. The operation of the 10 - year treasury bond yield can be divided into three rounds, with different influencing factors in each round [21][22]. - **Widening but Still Low Term Spread and Narrowing Local Bond Spread**: In the second quarter, the 10Y - 1Y spread widened marginally but remained at a historically low level. The local bond spread narrowed, which may be related to the previous decline in treasury bond yields and increased trading and allocation of local bonds by some institutions [28]. 3.3 Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - **Possible RRR Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts and Strengthened Use of Structural Tools**: Due to the uncertainty of external and domestic demand increasing the pressure on economic recovery, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" in the second half of the year, with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools [32]. - **Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds May Exceed 14 Trillion Yuan and Declining Yield Central Level**: In the second half of the year, the issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 14 trillion yuan, with high supply pressure in the third quarter and a possible additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The central level of yields will continue to decline, and the core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [36][39].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund companies are increasing the precision of net asset values to address redemption issues, particularly in bond funds, as the bond market enters a recovery phase but remains cautious [2][6]. Group 1: Fund Adjustments - Several fund companies, including Xinda Australia Fund and Huian Fund, have announced adjustments to the net asset value precision of their funds due to significant redemptions, increasing precision to eight decimal places [4][5]. - Other companies such as Guotai Junan, Changcheng, and Jiashi have also made similar announcements regarding their bond funds in response to large redemptions [4][5]. Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market has transitioned from a bull market to a high-volatility phase due to factors like liquidity, tariff negotiations, and risk appetite, with a cautious sentiment prevailing [7]. - Companies like Yifangda Fund indicate that liquidity issues have lessened compared to June, and while short-term impacts from stock market strength may affect long-term bond yields, the overall trend is expected to be downward [7]. - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for both stock and bond investments, with expectations of continued monetary easing and potential rate cuts to support market liquidity [7]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to see a decline in yields, with limited space for compression in short- to medium-term credit spreads, while long-term credit bonds may experience a similar trend [8].

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a significant possibility of breaking through the 3400 points, indicating the start of a new structural bull market for A-shares, with the current market trend strengthening [4][8]. - The core logic includes the contradiction between globalization and de-globalization, emphasizing that China's global layout cannot be reversed, and the restructuring of global trade interests will accelerate after the trade war [4][8]. - China's manufacturing sector is highlighted as the core of the global supply chain, maintaining a competitive advantage due to its scale, supply chain integrity, innovation capability, and cost efficiency [4][8]. - The enhancement of China's military strength is seen as a strategic guarantee for its globalization process, boosting confidence in Chinese assets globally [4][8]. - The quality of assets in the Chinese stock market is gradually improving, with a shift in IPO issuance from focusing on quantity to enhancing existing stock quality, leading to a significant reduction in IPO financing scale starting in 2024 [4][8]. - Institutional development is becoming increasingly refined, with improved market regulation and stability mechanisms, enhancing investor protection and increasing the costs of violations for listed companies [4][8]. - The demand for equity allocation is growing in a low-interest-rate environment, with a notable increase in the willingness of residents to allocate savings to the stock market as the market shows signs of recovery [4][8]. - The pace of economic recovery is expected to be moderate and prolonged, characterized by a transition between old and new driving forces, leading to a slow bull market in the stock market [4][8]. Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The market is showing a healthy upward trend, with indices rising significantly, particularly driven by heavyweight stocks, and a healthy rotation of market hotspots [5][9]. - The report indicates that sectors such as military industry and solid-state batteries are showing strong performance, suggesting good sustainability of industry hotspots [5][9]. - As the semi-annual report period approaches, the market is expected to return to an industry logic-driven trend, with a focus on performance-oriented market styles [5][9]. - High-dividend blue-chip companies are anticipated to gain market favor, alongside growth-oriented sectors, creating two stable upward forces in the market [5][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with favorable economic conditions as the market enters the performance period in July, with expectations for growth companies to deliver results [9]. - Sectors such as military, pharmaceuticals, automotive, home appliances, and TMT are highlighted as having good economic prospects, while high-dividend sectors are also emphasized due to their increasing scarcity in a declining interest rate environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The US-China tariff conflict is a decisive force reshaping the global economic order, with both countries vying for dominance over supply chains, technology standards, and development models [1] Group 1: Tariff Dynamics - The 2025 Geneva Agreement is a backdrop for the ultimate struggle for industrial chain dominance, where the US employs a dynamic tariff system under Trump's policies to segment high-end manufacturing chains [1] - China retaliates against technological blockades using strategic resources like rare earths, directly influencing 42% of the global intermediate goods supply chain and increasing uncertainty in global supply chains [1] Group 2: Strategic Responses - Chinese companies are implementing overseas strategies to achieve supply chain restructuring and localized operations, seeking new pathways amid dynamic tariffs and technological barriers [1] - The analysis by Professor Hu Jie aims to decode policies and provide insights for enterprises to navigate the complexities of global value chain restructuring [1] Group 3: Expert Background - Professor Hu Jie is a practice professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has extensive experience in financial economics and policy analysis, having worked at the Federal Reserve Bank and in investment banking in Hong Kong and Singapore [2][3] - His research and teaching focus on financial markets, macroeconomic policies, fintech, and the internationalization of Chinese enterprises [2][3] Group 4: Event Information - An event featuring Professor Hu Jie will discuss the deeper dynamics behind the US-China tariff relaxations, providing a platform for interaction and exchange [2][4]

地址：北京市朝阳区环球金融中心WFC西塔五层 预 约 席 位 ↓↓↓ 在百年变局的关键转折点，中美关税博弈已成为重塑全球经济秩序的决定性力量。2025 日内瓦 协议签署背后，是大国对产业链主导权、技术标准话语权与发展模式的终极争夺 —— 美国以特 朗普新政下的动态关税体系切割高端制造链，中国用稀土等战略资源反制技术封锁，直接牵动全 球 42% 中间品供应链走向，加剧了全球供应链的不确定性。 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院胡捷教授将穿透关税数字表象，系统解构核心命题，这场解析不 仅是政策解码，更是在大国博弈困局中，为企业寻找重塑全球价值链的确定性破局之道 —— 中 国企业正通过出海战略实现供应链重构与本地化运营，在动态关税与技术封锁中开辟新路径。 时间：6月21日（周六）下午 13:30 活动议程 胡捷教授的教学和研究领域包括金融市场与机构、美国宏观经济和金融政策、金融科技（含金融科技 原理、供应链金融、区块链与金融创新、元宇宙、AI与金融）、科创金融、中企国际化等。其主持若 干研究项目，主编上海交通大学中国金融研究院《中国财富管理实务通讯》。 胡捷教授是中国计算机学会（CCF）区块链专委会执行委员，ACCA中国 ...

Economic Factors - As of April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months as of May[4] - Consumer inflation expectations rose to 6.6%, the highest since 1981, according to a May survey[4] Market Impact - The US stock market lost over $6 trillion in market value within two trading days following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2[29] - The dollar index fell by 8.3% year-to-date as of May 31, indicating pressure on the dollar's dominance[33] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged from 4.01% to 4.48% within five trading days, reflecting market volatility[29] Political Dynamics - The Republican Party holds a narrow majority in Congress, with 219 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate as of May 31[8] - Trump's tariff policies face legal challenges, but he may utilize other legal provisions to impose tariffs quickly[34] - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 could pressure Trump to deliver on tariff promises to maintain voter support[36] International Relations - The US has not reached tariff agreements with major economies like the EU and Japan, complicating trade negotiations[38] - Other economies are adopting a cautious approach in negotiations with the US, influenced by China's strong countermeasures[38] - The potential for a "tech war" and "financial war" against China is increasing, with measures that could restrict Chinese access to technology and financial systems[46]

在资本市场全面深化改革与新质生产力加速崛起的历史交汇点，一场聚焦"资本赋能创新"的深度对话正 在展开。从"科创板八条""并购六条"到金融"五篇大文章"的部署，资本市场正加速与科技创新深度融 合。 5月21日下午，由浙商证券（601878）主办的第八届西湖大会分论坛——2025中国资本市场之江论坛顺 利举办，本次论坛以"向'新'而行，勇立潮头"为主题，会聚政府领导、浙商证券高管、80余家国资国企 平台及巨化股份（600160）、华友钴业（603799）、中控技术等近百家上市公司与拟上市公司高管，共 200余位嘉宾共话资本市场高质量发展新机遇。 浙商证券党委书记、总裁钱文海在致辞中表示，当前中国证监会聚焦新质生产力发展，深化投融资综合 改革，推动资本市场制度创新，为金融机构服务实体经济提供了广阔空间。作为浙江本土券商，浙商证 券始终以"深耕浙江，开拓全国"为使命，构建"投行+投资+投研"生态链，助力新质生产力培育与区域经 济高质量发展，期待与各界深化合作，共探资本市场改革新路径。 在论坛主旨演讲环节，浙商证券首席经济学家李超、浙商资管、浙商资本等多位参会嘉宾，围绕宏观经 济展望、金融赋能上市公司提质增效、上市公司 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Japanese government bond (JGB) market and its dynamics, influenced by macroeconomic factors and monetary policies from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Liquidity and Trading Factors**: The fluctuations in Japan's ultra-long-term bond yields are primarily driven by market liquidity and trading factors rather than fundamental changes in the economy [1][3][19]. - **Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT)**: The BoJ's extensive QE and QT operations have distorted the liquidity and pricing mechanisms in the ultra-long-term bond market, making yields more sensitive to external changes [1][3][9][15]. - **Expectations of Interest Rate Hikes**: Market expectations of potential interest rate hikes by the BoJ in 2025 have led to a flattening of the yield curve, particularly affecting the spread between 10-year and 30-year bonds [3][10]. - **Global Financial Market Volatility**: The end of the U.S. technology cycle may increase volatility in global capital markets, impacting Japanese assets and increasing uncertainty [4][5]. - **U.S.-China Tariff Disputes**: The ongoing tariff disputes between the U.S. and China are affecting global trade volumes and dollar liquidity, contributing to increased volatility in financial markets [6][7]. - **Post-Pandemic Fiscal Policy Shift**: Major economies, including Japan, are shifting from expansive fiscal policies during the pandemic to more cautious approaches, leading to capital flow adjustments and increased market instability [7][8]. - **Insurance Funds' Reluctance**: Insurance funds are hesitant to purchase ultra-long-term JGBs due to concerns over inflation, fiscal issues, and market liquidity, creating a negative feedback loop that exacerbates market volatility [8][19]. - **Limited Upside for JGB Yields**: The potential for further increases in ultra-long-term JGB yields is limited, as current fluctuations are driven by technical and liquidity issues rather than fundamental economic changes [10][20]. - **Transmission Risks to Other Markets**: While there is currently no significant transmission of JGB yield increases to other financial markets, prolonged rises in ultra-long-term yields could heighten contagion risks [12][23]. Additional Important Content - **Market Response to Auction Data**: Upcoming auction data, particularly for 40-year bonds, and the BoJ's QT assessments are critical points to monitor, as poor performance could lead to further market impacts [21]. - **Global Fiscal Supply Risks**: Increased fiscal stimulus in major economies like the U.S., Germany, and Japan could lead to spillover risks for Japan's bond market, particularly if these policies exceed expectations [2][22]. - **Lack of Significant Contagion Effects**: Currently, there is no evident contagion effect among U.S., German, and Japanese bonds, although shared concerns over fiscal stability and increased issuance could enhance inter-market correlations in the future [23].