对于一些老牌的钢贸商来说，之前依靠信息差、价格差玩转市 场的打法，已经玩不转了。当持续的期现背离，导致市场上普 遍的现货购销价差无法覆盖贸易商的综合运营成本时，整个行 业便开始进入盈亏平衡点以下的集体亏损区间。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 从业二十年的钢铁贸易的李静，最近两周在为螺纹钢库存调整发愁。 这些调整动作，因钢价异动而起。 2025年11月的钢铁市场，正在上演一场鲜见的期现分化大戏。 11月18日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢期货主力合约2601收于3079元/吨，当日跌幅达0.19%；然 而，生意社平台显示，螺纹钢现货价格坚守在3164.34元/吨，期现价差（期现价差=现货价格-期 货价格）达到85.34元/吨的异常水平。 2025年8月以来，螺纹钢期现背离持续扩大。自8月初起，螺纹钢期货价格便开启下行通道，而现 货价格相对"抗跌"，两者价差从不足20元/吨逐步走阔，至11月中旬已多次突破70元/吨，如今更 是扩大到80元/吨之上的水平。 现货市场在"反内卷"政策与限产措施支撑下，因供给端收缩预期而异常坚挺；期货市场则沉浸在 需求不足的悲观预期中难以自拔。 作为江苏无锡一家中型钢贸企业的业务经理，李静坦言 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is experiencing significant challenges due to a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to a shift in operational strategies among traders [3][4][9]. Market Dynamics - As of November 18, 2025, the main rebar futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 3079 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.19%, while the spot price remained at 3164.34 CNY/ton, resulting in an unusual price difference of 85.34 CNY/ton [3]. - Since August 2025, the divergence between futures and spot prices has widened, with the price gap exceeding 80 CNY/ton by mid-November [3][7]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a supply contraction due to government policies, while demand remains weak, leading to a persistent bearish outlook in the futures market [6][8]. Inventory Management - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar inventory from 20,000 tons to less than 8,000 tons [4][10]. - The focus on maintaining minimal inventory levels reflects heightened sensitivity to financial security among traders [10][21]. Strategic Shifts - Traditional trading strategies based on information asymmetry are becoming obsolete, prompting traders to seek new opportunities, such as extending supply chain services or enhancing financial operations [9][12]. - Large trading firms are increasingly engaging in arbitrage transactions to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some securing profits of 80 to 100 CNY per ton [11][12]. Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is facing significant financial strain, with average profit margins reported at only 1.97% for the first half of 2025, leading to increased scrutiny from banks regarding credit risk [15][16]. - Traders are experiencing longer sales cycles and delayed payments from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days [19][20]. Survival Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, traders are implementing strategies such as reducing inventory levels, utilizing futures for risk hedging, and exploring supply chain financing options [21][22]. - Some traders are shifting their focus to reliable clients with good credit histories, even if it means accepting lower profit margins [22][23].