Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory inflection point of lithium carbonate has emerged, and it remains strongly volatile. The current price is greatly affected by news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term sharp increases require caution regarding callback risks [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 8, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 140,860 yuan/ton and closed at 145,000 yuan/ton, with a 2.46% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 654,824 lots, and the open interest was 514,467 lots, up from 506,520 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 9,720 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 25,770 lots, a change of 590 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 132,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton, a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,825 US dollars/ton, a change of 70 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Despite the sharp decline in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors yesterday, lithium carbonate remained strong. It was mainly affected by supply - side disruptions and macro news. Some lithium salt plants in Sichuan and Qinghai are still under maintenance, and on January 7, relevant ministries held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry [2]. - According to SMM's latest statistics, the spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 715 tons; the downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,458 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,080 tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by trading sentiment and upcoming adjustments in trading regulations [2][3][4]. Price and Trading Data - On December 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 117,000 CNY/ton and closed at 121,580 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.77% from the previous settlement price [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 459,530 contracts, with an open interest of 511,309 contracts, slightly down from 512,345 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is reported at -1,960 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the spot price and futures price [2]. Spot Prices - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 114,000 and 122,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 112,000 and 118,000 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous day [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is reported at 1,550 USD/ton, down by 15 USD from the previous day [3][9]. Inventory Levels - Current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [4][10]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons; other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [4][10]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is primarily driven by market sentiment, with signs of excessive speculation present [5][11]. - Inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, and there is a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [5][11]. - The strategy suggests short-term range trading, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with recommendations to sell high for hedging purposes [5][11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market is in a unilateral upward trend driven by sentiment and funds. The core contradiction lies in the huge divergence between the futures market's optimistic expectations for supply and the real - world pressures in the spot market (high costs, weak price - following ability, and accumulating warehouse receipts). The market is expected to enter a period of high - level violent fluctuations under the influence of sentiment and regulatory pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a rapid correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price rose 16.89% to 120,400 yuan/ton this week. The main futures contract soared 17.16% to 130,520 yuan/ton. The prices of other lithium salts such as lithium hydroxide also increased. For example, the price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 15.19% to 102,400 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises decreased. For example, the premium and discount of raw materials like辉石料 decreased by 250 yuan, and that of enterprises like 赣锋锂 decreased by 200 - 300 yuan [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at a high level of 83.52%. There is a structural contradiction between high domestic production and the expected seasonal production reduction in salt lakes. The report also details the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, including production in different regions and from different raw material sources [2]. - **Demand**: Cathode material manufacturers have limited acceptance of high prices and are cautious in purchasing. There is a contradiction between structural support and price suppression in the demand side [2]. - **Import and Export**: The report does not provide relevant data on lithium carbonate imports and exports. The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and other countries remained unchanged this week [2][27]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts increased by 15.15% to 17,861 lots this week, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market is being transmitted to the futures market [2][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material cost has risen rapidly. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 18.07% to 129,875 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,475.3 yuan/ton, with most production capacities still in a loss state [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamental Analysis The report also involves the lithium - battery market, including the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the provided content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term price increases are significant, so investors need to be vigilant about the risk of price corrections [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 118,740 yuan/ton and closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, and the open interest was 607,187 lots (647,366 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 16,560 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Starting from December 26, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading rules for 12 lithium carbonate futures contracts [1]. Carbonate Lithium Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,800 - 112,000 yuan/ton, a change of 3,400 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 97,500 - 107,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 3,400 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The actual market transactions show that most upstream lithium salt factories focus on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high prices, mainly purchasing based on rigid demand and increasing long - term contracts, and adjusting the procurement rhythm according to next month's production schedule. The overall spot market transactions are extremely rare. Hunan Yueneng will conduct maintenance starting from January 1, 2026, which is expected to affect the production of phosphate cathode products by 15,000 - 35,000 tons, corresponding to a lithium carbonate consumption of about 350 - 1,000 tons. The current spot inventory is 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory is 17,851 tons, a decrease of 239 tons; downstream inventory is 39,892 tons, a decrease of 1,593 tons; other inventory is 52,030 tons, an increase of 1,180 tons. The overall inventory is expected to continue to decline in December, but the depletion speed continues to slow down [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging opportunities. Options, inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not recommended [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, prompting regulatory adjustments in trading rules to manage volatility [2][7]. Market Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 118,740 CNY/ton and closed at 123,520 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 0.44% from the previous settlement price [2][7]. - The trading volume for the day was 924,823 contracts, with an open interest of 607,187 contracts, down from 647,366 contracts the previous day [2][7]. - Starting December 26, 2025, the exchange will adjust trading rules for 12 lithium carbonate contracts, including minimum order sizes and daily opening limits [2][7]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 97,800 and 112,000 CNY/ton, with an increase of 3,400 CNY/ton from the previous day [3][8]. - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 97,500 and 107,000 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 3,400 CNY/ton increase [3][8]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate remains unchanged at 1,450 USD/ton [3][8]. - Market activity shows that most upstream lithium salt manufacturers are focusing on long-term contracts, with limited spot transactions [3][8]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Current inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [3][8]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons [3][8]. - Other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [3][8]. - The overall trend indicates a continued reduction in inventory, although the pace of depletion is slowing [3][8]. Price Trends and Strategy - Current prices are heavily influenced by supply-side disruptions, with signs of excessive speculation in the market [4][9]. - The market is experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, indicating potential for a price correction [4][9]. - A short-term trading strategy is recommended, focusing on monitoring consumption and inventory trends, with opportunities to sell high for hedging [4][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current price is mainly dominated by supply - side interference news with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices in the market. With a large short - term increase, there is a need to be vigilant about the callback risk [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 24, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with a 5.89% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 949,006 lots, and the open interest was 647,366 lots (the previous day's open interest was 671,573 lots). The current basis is - 21,900 yuan/ton. There were 17,101 lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, a change of 450 lots from the previous day. Despite the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raising the trading and intraday closing transaction fees for the lithium carbonate futures LC2605 contract to 0.032% of the transaction amount, the futures still rose significantly, and the current price is at a two - year high [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,700 - 101,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton. In November 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%, with an average import price of about 9,915 US dollars/ton, a 11% month - on - month increase from the October average price. The lithium spodumene imports reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of the increase, with imports reaching 425,000 tons in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44% and accounting for 58% of the total imports. Imports from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%; imports from Nigeria were 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. Additionally, 73,000 tons of lithium spodumene ore from Mali arrived at ports [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventories are 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The downstream and smelter inventories are decreasing while other inventories are increasing. The overall inventory in December is expected to continue to decline, but the inventory depletion is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the release of relevant inventory data on Thursday [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and choose the right time to sell hedging at high prices. Cross - period: None. Cross - variety: None [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current price of lithium carbonate is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. There is a phenomenon of divergence between futures and spot markets, and the short - term increase is too large, so the risk of a callback should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 113,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,360 yuan/ton, with a 5.67% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 731,003 lots, and the open interest was 671,573 lots, up from 668,829 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 18,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,651 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [2] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 96,400 - 102,600 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 95,100 - 98,600 yuan/ton, also a change of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,420 US dollars/ton, a change of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - The expectation of the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo continues to ferment. The SMM weekly inventory reduction is less than expected but still supports the strong trend. The total spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventory is 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The overall inventory reduction in December is expected to continue, but the reduction has slowed down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. There are no strategies for inter - period and cross - variety operations [3]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core View - The report focuses on the divergence between the near - end futures and spot prices of live pigs driven by position limits, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of live pigs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong are 11,380 yuan/ton, 11,450 yuan/ton, and 11,560 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 50 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 200 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,585 yuan/ton, 11,315 yuan/ton, and 11,990 yuan/ton respectively. The year - on - year changes are +45 yuan/ton, - 50 yuan/ton, and - 70 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 58,481 lots, 22,433 lots, and 14,223 lots respectively, with decreases of 34,380 lots, 19,534 lots, and 8,112 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 117,322 lots, 128,243 lots, and 71,756 lots respectively, with changes of - 10,736 lots, +3,627 lots, and +2,624 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are - 205 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and - 610 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 95 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and +20 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts 1 - 3 and 3 - 5 are 270 yuan/ton and - 675 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of +95 yuan/ton and +20 yuan/ton [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, within the range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to a significant divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to collective losses among traders as operational costs cannot be covered by the price differences [1][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence between futures and spot prices for rebar has been expanding since August 2025, with the price difference exceeding 80 yuan/ton by mid-November, indicating a stark contrast between the optimistic spot market and the pessimistic futures market [4][5][10]. - Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition have led to a significant reduction in steel inventories, with rebar stocks down 15.3% year-on-year as of mid-November 2025 [8][9]. - The current market conditions reflect a fundamental shift in the steel trading landscape, where traditional profit-making strategies based on price discrepancies are becoming obsolete [6][12]. Group 2: Trader Strategies - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar stocks from 20,000 tons to below 8,000 tons [5][15]. - Financial management and refined inventory control are becoming critical for survival, as traders face increased pressure from both inventory costs and financing challenges [13][20]. - Large trading firms are exploring more diverse strategies, such as engaging in arbitrage trading to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some firms reportedly securing profits of 80 to 100 yuan per ton through these strategies [16][17]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is experiencing heightened financial strain, with banks increasing loan rates and requiring reassessments of creditworthiness, leading to additional financial burdens for traders [21][22]. - The average profit margin for steel companies remains low, at just 1.97%, which exacerbates the credit risks perceived by banks [22][23]. - Traders are facing longer payment cycles from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days, significantly impacting cash flow [27][29]. Group 4: Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to the evolving market conditions, traders are making difficult decisions, such as liquidating inventory at lower prices to improve cash flow and exploring new business models like consignment sales to reduce financial risk [30][31]. - The ability to adapt quickly to new market rules and maintain cash flow will determine which traders can survive and potentially thrive in the future [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is experiencing significant challenges due to a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to a shift in operational strategies among traders [3][4][9]. Market Dynamics - As of November 18, 2025, the main rebar futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 3079 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.19%, while the spot price remained at 3164.34 CNY/ton, resulting in an unusual price difference of 85.34 CNY/ton [3]. - Since August 2025, the divergence between futures and spot prices has widened, with the price gap exceeding 80 CNY/ton by mid-November [3][7]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a supply contraction due to government policies, while demand remains weak, leading to a persistent bearish outlook in the futures market [6][8]. Inventory Management - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar inventory from 20,000 tons to less than 8,000 tons [4][10]. - The focus on maintaining minimal inventory levels reflects heightened sensitivity to financial security among traders [10][21]. Strategic Shifts - Traditional trading strategies based on information asymmetry are becoming obsolete, prompting traders to seek new opportunities, such as extending supply chain services or enhancing financial operations [9][12]. - Large trading firms are increasingly engaging in arbitrage transactions to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some securing profits of 80 to 100 CNY per ton [11][12]. Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is facing significant financial strain, with average profit margins reported at only 1.97% for the first half of 2025, leading to increased scrutiny from banks regarding credit risk [15][16]. - Traders are experiencing longer sales cycles and delayed payments from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days [19][20]. Survival Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, traders are implementing strategies such as reducing inventory levels, utilizing futures for risk hedging, and exploring supply chain financing options [21][22]. - Some traders are shifting their focus to reliable clients with good credit histories, even if it means accepting lower profit margins [22][23].