新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-09 库存拐点已现，碳酸锂依然强势震荡 市场分析 2026-01-08，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于140860元/吨，收于145000元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化2.46%。当日 成交量为654824手，持仓量为514467手，前一交易日持仓量506520手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-9720元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单25770手，较上个交易日变化590手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价132000-145000元/吨，较前一交易日变化5000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价130000-140000元/吨，较前一交易日变化5000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1825美元/吨，较前一日变化70美元/吨。 昨日有色、贵金属板块大跌，但碳酸锂依然维持强势，午后虽然受板块影响大幅下滑，但尾盘强势收涨。碳酸锂 维持强势主要受供给端干扰影响以及宏观消息的影响，供应端四川、青海部分锂盐厂仍处检修，消息端1月7日工 业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局、国家能源局联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署进 一步规范动力和储能电池产业竞争秩序工 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 2025-12-30，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于117000元/吨，收于121580元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变 化-3.77%。当日成交量为459530手，持仓量为511309手，前一交易日持仓量512345手，根据SMM现货 报价，目前基差为-1960元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单19491手，较上个交易日变化1300 手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价114000-122000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业 级碳酸锂报价112000-118000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1550美元/吨，较前一日变 化-15美元/吨。广期所公告，自2025年12月30日（星期二）结算时起，碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度调 整为10%，投机交易保证金标准调整为12%，套期保值交易保证金标准调整为11%，2026年1月5日（星 期一）恢复交易后，在各品种期货持仓量最大的合约未出现涨跌停板单边无连续报价的第一个交易日结 算时起，碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度、投机交易保 ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 逻辑驱动 | 品种 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周内上涨16.89%至120400元/吨，市场情绪 | | | | 高涨。但期货价格持续高于现货，基差深度贴水扩大至-10120元/吨（环比增 | | | | 20.48%），显示现货跟涨乏力。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度大涨17.16%，收于130520元/吨，连续突破关键整数 | | | | 关口。持仓量周内下降13.72%至577035手，价格在巨幅波动中减仓上行，波动率 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | | 市场在情绪与监 | | | 显著放大。 | 管压力下将转入 | | | 【供应方面】：碳酸锂产能利用率维持83.52%高位，供应端呈现国内高开工与盐 | | | | 湖季节性减产预期并存的结构性矛盾。 | 高位剧烈震荡， | | | | 需警惕快速回调 | | | 【需求方面】：正极材料厂对高价接受度有限，采购偏谨慎， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 交易规则调整，碳酸锂价格宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-12-25，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于118740元/吨，收于123520元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.44%。当日 成交量为924823手，持仓量为607187手，前一交易日持仓量647366手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-16560元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单17101手，较上个交易日变化0手。2025年12月26日起，广期所调整碳酸锂期 货12个合约的交易规则，包括最小开仓下单数量及单日开仓限额，以应对近期价格剧烈波动。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价97800-112000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3400元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价97500-107000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3400元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1450美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。SMM 方面消息显示，从市场实际成交来看，上游大部分锂盐厂以保长协为主，散单成交较少；下游材料厂对当前高价 普遍持谨慎观望态度，采购仍以刚需及长协客供加量为主，并结合下月排产情况来调整采货节奏；碳酸锂现货市 场整体成交 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 2025-12-25，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于118740元/吨，收于123520元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化 0.44%。当日成交量为924823手，持仓量为607187手，前一交易日持仓量647366手，根据SMM现货报 价，目前基差为-16560元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单17101手，较上个交易日变化0手。 2025年12月26日起，广期所调整碳酸锂期货12个合约的交易规则，包括最小开仓下单数量及单日开仓限 额，以应对近期价格剧烈波动。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价97800-112000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3400元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价97500-107000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3400元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1450美元/吨，较前一 日变化0美元/吨。SMM方面消息显示，从市场实际成交来看，上游大部分锂盐厂以保长协为主，散单 成交较少；下游材料厂对当前高价普遍持谨慎观望态度，采购仍以刚需及长协客供加量为主，并结合下 月排产情况来调整采货节奏；碳酸锂 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 价格重心上移，碳酸锂盘面继续冲高 市场分析 风险 2025-12-24，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于122000元/吨，收于124720元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化5.89%。当日 成交量为949006手，持仓量为647366手，前一交易日持仓量671573手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-21900元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单17101手，较上个交易日变化450手。广期所将碳酸锂期货LC2605合约的交 易手续费和日内平仓交易手续费标准均调整为成交金额的万分之三点二，但是手续费的上调依然未能拦住投资者 的热情，期货继续大幅上涨。当前碳酸锂价格已处于2年内高位。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价97000-106000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2000元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价96700-101000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1450美元/吨，较前一日变化30美元/吨。海 关总署数据显示，2025年11月我国碳酸锂进口总量约为22055吨，环比减少8%，同比增加15%，进口均价约为9915 美元/吨，较1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 看涨热情不减，碳酸锂突破12万大关 市场分析 2025-12-23，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于113900元/吨，收于120360元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化5.67%。当日 成交量为731003手，持仓量为671573手，前一交易日持仓量668829手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-18060元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单16651手，较上个交易日变化240手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价96400-102600元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价95100-98600元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1420美元/吨，较前一日变化35美元/吨。 消息面上宁德枧下窝复产预期持续发酵，基本面方面SMM周度库存去化虽不及预期，但仍支撑走势维持强势。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为110425吨，环比-1044吨。其中冶炼厂库存为18090吨，环比-1071吨；下游库 存为41485吨，环比-1253吨；其他库存为50850吨，环比+1280吨。下游及冶炼厂库存降低，其他库存增加，12月 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core View - The report focuses on the divergence between the near - end futures and spot prices of live pigs driven by position limits, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of live pigs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong are 11,380 yuan/ton, 11,450 yuan/ton, and 11,560 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 50 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 200 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,585 yuan/ton, 11,315 yuan/ton, and 11,990 yuan/ton respectively. The year - on - year changes are +45 yuan/ton, - 50 yuan/ton, and - 70 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 58,481 lots, 22,433 lots, and 14,223 lots respectively, with decreases of 34,380 lots, 19,534 lots, and 8,112 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 117,322 lots, 128,243 lots, and 71,756 lots respectively, with changes of - 10,736 lots, +3,627 lots, and +2,624 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are - 205 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and - 610 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 95 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and +20 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts 1 - 3 and 3 - 5 are 270 yuan/ton and - 675 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of +95 yuan/ton and +20 yuan/ton [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, within the range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to a significant divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to collective losses among traders as operational costs cannot be covered by the price differences [1][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence between futures and spot prices for rebar has been expanding since August 2025, with the price difference exceeding 80 yuan/ton by mid-November, indicating a stark contrast between the optimistic spot market and the pessimistic futures market [4][5][10]. - Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition have led to a significant reduction in steel inventories, with rebar stocks down 15.3% year-on-year as of mid-November 2025 [8][9]. - The current market conditions reflect a fundamental shift in the steel trading landscape, where traditional profit-making strategies based on price discrepancies are becoming obsolete [6][12]. Group 2: Trader Strategies - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar stocks from 20,000 tons to below 8,000 tons [5][15]. - Financial management and refined inventory control are becoming critical for survival, as traders face increased pressure from both inventory costs and financing challenges [13][20]. - Large trading firms are exploring more diverse strategies, such as engaging in arbitrage trading to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some firms reportedly securing profits of 80 to 100 yuan per ton through these strategies [16][17]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is experiencing heightened financial strain, with banks increasing loan rates and requiring reassessments of creditworthiness, leading to additional financial burdens for traders [21][22]. - The average profit margin for steel companies remains low, at just 1.97%, which exacerbates the credit risks perceived by banks [22][23]. - Traders are facing longer payment cycles from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days, significantly impacting cash flow [27][29]. Group 4: Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to the evolving market conditions, traders are making difficult decisions, such as liquidating inventory at lower prices to improve cash flow and exploring new business models like consignment sales to reduce financial risk [30][31]. - The ability to adapt quickly to new market rules and maintain cash flow will determine which traders can survive and potentially thrive in the future [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is experiencing significant challenges due to a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to a shift in operational strategies among traders [3][4][9]. Market Dynamics - As of November 18, 2025, the main rebar futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 3079 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.19%, while the spot price remained at 3164.34 CNY/ton, resulting in an unusual price difference of 85.34 CNY/ton [3]. - Since August 2025, the divergence between futures and spot prices has widened, with the price gap exceeding 80 CNY/ton by mid-November [3][7]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a supply contraction due to government policies, while demand remains weak, leading to a persistent bearish outlook in the futures market [6][8]. Inventory Management - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar inventory from 20,000 tons to less than 8,000 tons [4][10]. - The focus on maintaining minimal inventory levels reflects heightened sensitivity to financial security among traders [10][21]. Strategic Shifts - Traditional trading strategies based on information asymmetry are becoming obsolete, prompting traders to seek new opportunities, such as extending supply chain services or enhancing financial operations [9][12]. - Large trading firms are increasingly engaging in arbitrage transactions to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some securing profits of 80 to 100 CNY per ton [11][12]. Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is facing significant financial strain, with average profit margins reported at only 1.97% for the first half of 2025, leading to increased scrutiny from banks regarding credit risk [15][16]. - Traders are experiencing longer sales cycles and delayed payments from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days [19][20]. Survival Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, traders are implementing strategies such as reducing inventory levels, utilizing futures for risk hedging, and exploring supply chain financing options [21][22]. - Some traders are shifting their focus to reliable clients with good credit histories, even if it means accepting lower profit margins [22][23].