对于一些老牌的钢贸商来说，之前依靠信息差、价格差玩转市 场的打法，已经玩不转了。当持续的期现背离，导致市场上普 遍的现货购销价差无法覆盖贸易商的综合运营成本时，整个行 业便开始进入盈亏平衡点以下的集体亏损区间。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 从业二十年的钢铁贸易的李静，最近两周在为螺纹钢库存调整发愁。 这些调整动作，因钢价异动而起。 2025年11月的钢铁市场，正在上演一场鲜见的期现分化大戏。 11月18日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢期货主力合约2601收于3079元/吨，当日跌幅达0.19%；然 而，生意社平台显示，螺纹钢现货价格坚守在3164.34元/吨，期现价差（期现价差=现货价格-期 货价格）达到85.34元/吨的异常水平。 2025年8月以来，螺纹钢期现背离持续扩大。自8月初起，螺纹钢期货价格便开启下行通道，而现 货价格相对"抗跌"，两者价差从不足20元/吨逐步走阔，至11月中旬已多次突破70元/吨，如今更 是扩大到80元/吨之上的水平。 现货市场在"反内卷"政策与限产措施支撑下，因供给端收缩预期而异常坚挺；期货市场则沉浸在 需求不足的悲观预期中难以自拔。 作为江苏无锡一家中型钢贸企业的业务经理，李静坦言 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is experiencing significant challenges due to a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to a shift in operational strategies among traders [3][4][9]. Market Dynamics - As of November 18, 2025, the main rebar futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 3079 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.19%, while the spot price remained at 3164.34 CNY/ton, resulting in an unusual price difference of 85.34 CNY/ton [3]. - Since August 2025, the divergence between futures and spot prices has widened, with the price gap exceeding 80 CNY/ton by mid-November [3][7]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a supply contraction due to government policies, while demand remains weak, leading to a persistent bearish outlook in the futures market [6][8]. Inventory Management - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar inventory from 20,000 tons to less than 8,000 tons [4][10]. - The focus on maintaining minimal inventory levels reflects heightened sensitivity to financial security among traders [10][21]. Strategic Shifts - Traditional trading strategies based on information asymmetry are becoming obsolete, prompting traders to seek new opportunities, such as extending supply chain services or enhancing financial operations [9][12]. - Large trading firms are increasingly engaging in arbitrage transactions to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some securing profits of 80 to 100 CNY per ton [11][12]. Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is facing significant financial strain, with average profit margins reported at only 1.97% for the first half of 2025, leading to increased scrutiny from banks regarding credit risk [15][16]. - Traders are experiencing longer sales cycles and delayed payments from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days [19][20]. Survival Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, traders are implementing strategies such as reducing inventory levels, utilizing futures for risk hedging, and exploring supply chain financing options [21][22]. - Some traders are shifting their focus to reliable clients with good credit histories, even if it means accepting lower profit margins [22][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the soybean meal market is showing signs of strength despite recent fluctuations, with a notable divergence between futures and spot prices [2][4] - The soybean meal market is supported by a projected shortage in the fourth quarter, which is a significant factor influencing market dynamics [4][5] - The cost of imports is a critical support factor for soybean meal prices, as even if U.S. soybeans return to the Chinese market, prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to high import costs [6][9][10] Group 2 - Demand for soybean meal is being bolstered by recent developments in the canola meal market, particularly following anti-dumping measures against Canadian canola seeds, which have led to a rise in canola meal prices [11][13] - The current market situation for soybean meal reflects a balance between high inventory levels and long-term bullish expectations, indicating a gradual upward shift in spot prices [13] - Any unexpected regulatory changes could trigger a significant price increase in soybean meal, highlighting the market's sensitivity to external factors [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].