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古茗(1364.HK)首次覆盖报告:供应链与运营为基 大众现饮龙头成长可期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-06 21:45
Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.279 billion, 13.231 billion, and 15.586 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 18% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.163 billion, 2.531 billion, and 2.996 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 40%, 17%, and 18% respectively [1] - A target price of 29.66 HKD is set for 2025, reflecting a 30x PE ratio, which is above the industry average [1] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong product strategy with a focus on high-frequency product innovation, supported by a robust R&D team [2] - It utilizes a high-density store network combined with self-built cold chain logistics to provide high-quality, short-shelf-life ingredients to franchisees at a relatively low cost [2] - Strong franchisee management and digital efficiency improvements are emphasized, ensuring consistent store operations and shared risk with franchisees [2] Market Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has significant growth potential, particularly in lower-tier markets [2] - The demand for ready-to-drink beverages is accelerated by the competitive landscape of food delivery services, enhancing market penetration [2] - The industry is characterized by continuous product innovation and differentiation among leading brands, with a focus on supply chain and operational capabilities [2] Expansion Strategy - The company has a comprehensive competitive advantage that supports national expansion, with a potential for over 30,000 new stores in China [3] - The integration of online and offline marketing strategies is aimed at building brand awareness regionally [3] - The company plans to extend its product offerings into the coffee category, leveraging its existing store network and cold chain logistics to enhance store efficiency [3]