Summary of Baia Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baia Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Sanitary products, specifically focusing on women's hygiene products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recovery in Revenue and Profit**: The most competitive period for online channels has passed, with expectations for revenue and profit to recover, primarily benefiting from L2 strategy optimization and policy restrictions on irrational traffic investments. The months of May and June are seen as clear low points, with July and August showing recovery in GMV on Douyin [2][5] 2. **Dominance of Offline Channels**: Offline channels remain the primary driver for Baia, with the Free Point brand expanding rapidly in peripheral provinces. The first half of the year is expected to see a doubling in growth, and as fixed costs are amortized, profit increases will be non-linear, with key provinces likely to reach profitability inflection points [2][6] 3. **Emergence of Instant Retail**: Baia has positioned itself early in the instant retail space, offering competitive pricing and higher delivery efficiency compared to Douyin. The recovery in e-commerce data combined with strong performance in offline peripheral provinces should be closely monitored for future growth [2][6] 4. **Shift in Growth Strategy**: The company is transitioning from rapid market share growth to enhancing operational quality, leveraging online L2 strategy optimization and new instant retail channels to drive performance growth. The growth cycle of the company is expected to continue [2][7] 5. **Product Strategy and Impact**: In May 2023, Baia launched a probiotic series priced at 1 to 1.2 yuan, which significantly boosted performance and initiated a cycle of large single products. This followed the introduction of a health series in late 2022, which had mixed results due to higher pricing [2][7] 6. **Financial Performance**: Since the second half of 2022, Baia has seen a turning point in performance, with revenue growth of 33% in 2023 and projected 52% in 2024. Despite increased advertising and fixed costs, profit growth remains above 20%. ROE is expected to rise from 15% in 2022 to 20% in 2024, with gross margin increasing from 45% to 53% [4][8] 7. **Regional Market Performance**: Baia holds over 40% market share in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, with stable growth in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Shaanxi. Significant revenue growth is expected in peripheral provinces starting in the second half of 2024, continuing into the first half of 2025 [4][9] 8. **E-commerce and Offline Channel Dynamics**: E-commerce channels have achieved significant results through Douyin and Tmall, but future growth may stabilize at a reasonable range of 20%-30%. The importance of offline channels is increasing, with fixed costs being amortized as scale expands, gradually releasing profit potential [10] 9. **Competitive Advantages**: Baia's local brands, such as Free Point, have stronger offline management capabilities compared to foreign brands, which rely heavily on online channels. The company maintains a close ratio of distributors to sales personnel, enhancing control over terminal sales points and market share [11] 10. **Future Growth Prospects**: As the potential of probiotic products is realized, high-margin products will enhance distributor performance, attracting more distributors. After crossing the breakeven point in various provinces, profit margins are expected to rise rapidly, with projections for continued revenue and profit growth [12]

Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.279 billion, 13.231 billion, and 15.586 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 18% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.163 billion, 2.531 billion, and 2.996 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 40%, 17%, and 18% respectively [1] - A target price of 29.66 HKD is set for 2025, reflecting a 30x PE ratio, which is above the industry average [1] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong product strategy with a focus on high-frequency product innovation, supported by a robust R&D team [2] - It utilizes a high-density store network combined with self-built cold chain logistics to provide high-quality, short-shelf-life ingredients to franchisees at a relatively low cost [2] - Strong franchisee management and digital efficiency improvements are emphasized, ensuring consistent store operations and shared risk with franchisees [2] Market Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has significant growth potential, particularly in lower-tier markets [2] - The demand for ready-to-drink beverages is accelerated by the competitive landscape of food delivery services, enhancing market penetration [2] - The industry is characterized by continuous product innovation and differentiation among leading brands, with a focus on supply chain and operational capabilities [2] Expansion Strategy - The company has a comprehensive competitive advantage that supports national expansion, with a potential for over 30,000 new stores in China [3] - The integration of online and offline marketing strategies is aimed at building brand awareness regionally [3] - The company plans to extend its product offerings into the coffee category, leveraging its existing store network and cold chain logistics to enhance store efficiency [3]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 2.678 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -102 million yuan, a decline of 138.02% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 742 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27 million yuan, a growth of 61.18% [1] - The company expects a recovery in 2025, driven by improved consumer environment and policy support [2] Group 2 - In 2024, the company's revenue from refractive projects was 1.227 billion yuan, down 5.31% year-on-year, while cataract project revenue was 576 million yuan, down 3.04% [2] - The gross margin for refractive projects in 2024 was 47.02%, a decrease of 4.56 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [2] - The overall gross margin in 2024 was 36.98%, down 7.02 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of -3.47%, a decline of 13.7 percentage points [3] Group 3 - The company anticipates net profits of 118 million yuan, 197 million yuan, and 255 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments due to factors like artificial crystal procurement and DRG policy [4] - The company is positioned as a leading private ophthalmology medical enterprise in China, with clear expansion plans in provincial capitals [4] - The aging population is expected to drive demand for medical services, supporting the company's growth trajectory [4]