近期东北产区大豆现货持续上涨，39蛋白大豆涨至4300-4500元/吨。基本面上存在贸易商惜售，高蛋白 大豆供应紧张的局面，且面临春节前的传统备货旺季，市场短期价格坚挺，看涨预期较强。另外近期的 豆一拍卖成交率高，且存在大幅溢价。显示短期市场需求端有释放需求。整体看，目前阶段性供弱需强 局面比较显著，豆一价格预计走势坚挺。不过行长期情况看，高价限制消费的局面仍存，节前备货结束 后要考虑价格回调风险。操作上，建议前期低位多单继续持有，但不宜过分追高。 国投安信期货：国产大豆仍然延续上行势头 国产大豆仍然延续上行势头，近期的大豆竞价拍卖表现出来了高溢价和高成交率，国产大豆现货端收购 价格也出现上调，提振了国产大豆市场，1月中旬吉林省贸易粮也将要进行竞价拍卖，持续关注。进口 大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期，供应端的风险仍然偏低。短期持续关注政策端表现以 及内外市场的指引。 1月7日盘中，豆一期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至4396.00元。截止发稿，豆一主力合约 报4380.00元，涨幅2.72%。 豆一期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 首创期货 豆一价格 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend for about a month due to supply disturbances and potential demand growth. If downstream demand strengthens in September, lithium prices are likely to continue rising [3]. - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range between 85,000 and 95,000 yuan per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2511 contract closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 9,940 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 10,800 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The SMM spot-futures basis (2509 contract) rose 520 yuan/ton to -4,220 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was -310 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton week-on-week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: After Yichun Times stopped mining, the lithium carbonate price strengthened. There are concerns about long - term production halts in smelting enterprises after using up equity and inventory ores. In Qinghai, mining license renewals and potential over - production issues may lead to production uncertainties in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Demand**: In August, the downstream production schedule demand is expected to improve significantly. The production schedule of cathode materials shows an 8.8% month - on - month increase for iron - lithium and a 9.2% increase for ternary materials. This week, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 216,000 units, down 11.84% week - on - week but up 0.93% year - on - year, with the growth rate significantly narrowing [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with the inventory at 142,000 tons, down 162 tons week - on - week. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 23,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - **Outlook**: Due to the time needed for maritime replenishment of ore exports, lithium prices will likely remain strong for about a month. If downstream demand strengthens in September, a supply - to - demand procurement concern will form, and lithium prices are expected to stay strong [3]. - **Single - sided Trading**: The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - period Trading**: In the short term, due to supply shortages, a positive spread arbitrage is recommended. In the long term, with a negative long - term contract basis and an expected increase in warehouse receipts, a reverse spread arbitrage is suitable [5]. - **Hedging**: As prices are expected to rise, upstream enterprises are advised to set prices for sales and not to sell for hedging. Downstream enterprises are not advised to buy for hedging because the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price [5].