1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean sales slow down, the price remains stable, and there is still a certain amount of surplus grain before the Spring Festival; the domestic imported soybeans decline, the port inventory drops, the auction is postponed; the oil - mill operating rate rebounds, the soybean meal inventory decreases, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean futures will fluctuate strongly, while soybean meal futures will remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main soybean contract 2605 quickly soared to 4440 and then quickly fell back, hitting a new high in nearly a year. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4400 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main soybean meal contract 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly and steadily, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3070 yuan/ton. The basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - The sales of domestic soybeans slowed down. As of January 23, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans remained at 40% month - on - month; that of Anhui soybeans dropped to 48%, a 2% month - on - month decrease; that of Henan soybeans dropped to 52%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; and that of Shandong soybeans dropped to 53%, a 3% month - on - month decrease. Due to the differentiation of grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continued. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, enterprise procurement slowed down [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - Imported soybeans continued to decline, and the port soybean inventory continued to drop. In December 2025, China imported 804300 tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decline and a 1.28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imported soybeans in 2025 were 111818500 tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. There was no latest imported soybean auction announcement. The soybeans purchased from the US by China might enter the reserve rotation. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continued to decline. As of January 23, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 174200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the port soybean inventory was 721500 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans fluctuated at a low level. The USDA January supply - demand report was bearish. The US soybean production was slightly increased, exports were slightly reduced, but the ending stocks were significantly increased. The Brazilian soybean production was increased, and the global ending stocks were increased. Attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil - mill and Soybean Meal Situation - The operating rate of oil mills rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continued to drop. As of January 23, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.83%, a month - on - month rebound; the soybean crushing volume was 2102100 tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6589900 tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal output was 1661000 tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 898600 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4061600 tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 10.21 days, a continuous month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - The feed demand was strong. In terms of livestock farming, the pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, an increase in profit; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head, an increase in profit. The reduction of production capacity achieved certain results. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs in December both decreased. From the situation of large - scale farms, the inventory of breeding sows continued to decline month - on - month in December, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in nearly a year. However, the profit might drag down the pace of future production capacity reduction. In terms of poultry farming, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding turned from loss to profit; the culling of old chickens increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. The feed demand was still strong, and feed enterprises actively stocked up [6].

国产大豆主力合约价格表现偏强,并伴随增仓。国产大豆现货市场偏平稳,农户手中余粮偏少,市场供应偏 紧,不过近期政策拍卖成交情况拍好,短期给市场带来边际供应的改善。随着节日的临近,需求方面市场预计 也存在边际改善的概率。宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆一也有一定的溢出效应。短期持续 关注政策和市场情绪的表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 南美丰产预期重回主要交易逻辑后，短期市场消化完毕。巴西国家商品供应公司（CONAB）数据显示，截止1月 17日，巴西2025/26年度大豆收获完成2.3%，五年同期均值3.2%。新季巴西大豆收割受天气影响,进度偏慢，市 场开始聚焦巴西新季大豆收割进度。国内方面,国家粮油信息中心监测数据显示,目前我国2、3月船期大豆采 购均过9成,4月船期采购过4成。美财长贝森特确认,我国已履行1200万吨大豆采购承诺。后续一方面要持续关 注巴西大豆的收获情况，一般来说2月底开始大范围收获，届时美豆/连粕压力或加大。另一方面随着中加关系 的改善，后续加莱籽及菜粕的进口或对国内豆粕价格形成冲击。短期美豆/连箱或将延续底部震荡格局。 【豆油&棕榈油】 马来西亚高频数据显示出产量环比下降而出口需求环比增 ...

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical pressure between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, with the US State Department issuing a high-level security warning for citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran [1][17] - Iran's response has been strong, with military readiness declared and warnings issued against US military bases and shipping targets, while also expressing willingness for negotiations [1][17] Impact on Global Commodity Markets - The tensions pose significant risks to the global commodity market, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transport; any disruption could lead to a spike in oil prices [2][17] - Iran is a key exporter of methanol, LPG, and polyethylene, with methanol accounting for nearly half of China's imports, making the supply chain vulnerable to conflict [2][17] - Geopolitical risk premiums have driven prices of safe-haven assets like gold and silver to historical highs, potentially affecting the metals market as well [2][17] Greenland Dispute - The US has announced tariffs on eight European countries to pressure them into accepting the US's demands for the complete acquisition of Greenland, which has led to increased tensions with Europe [3][17] - Greenland holds about 32% of the world's rare earth reserves and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, and nickel, making the dispute impactful on key metal pricing [3][17] - The geopolitical tensions may lead to strategic reserve behaviors among countries regarding important metal raw materials [3][18] Structural Opportunities in Petrochemicals - The focus is on structural opportunities under the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy, particularly concerning naphtha supply tightness due to peak gasoline demand and refinery capacity constraints [5][20] - The closure of high-cost refineries in Europe and Japan is expected to create market space for China's expanding chemical capacity, leading to discussions on potential volatility in ethylene supply [5][20] Pulp and Soybean Pricing Dynamics - The global supply of hardwood pulp is increasing, while softwood pulp supply remains limited, with a 9% year-on-year increase in shipments to China noted [7][21] - Domestic soybean prices have remained high following a significant price increase, driven by state grain reserves and cautious selling behavior from grain holders [15][29] - The potential for a release of social inventory post-Spring Festival could pressure soybean prices, alongside external factors affecting import dynamics [15][29]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical pressure between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, with the US State Department issuing a highest-level security warning for citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening a 25% tariff on countries conducting business with Iran. The US military has increased troop presence in the Middle East and is considering various military strike options, including airstrikes on military facilities [5] - Iran has responded strongly, with its Supreme Leader calling for national unity and the military entering a state of maximum readiness, warning of retaliation against US military bases and shipping targets if attacked. Both sides are in a "testing state" on the brink of war, where any miscalculation could trigger conflict [5] - The tensions pose significant risks to the global commodity market, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transport. A disruption could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices [5] - Iran is a key exporter of methanol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and polyethylene, with Iran's methanol accounting for nearly half of China's imports. Conflict could directly threaten the supply chain of these chemical products [5] Greenland Dispute - Disagreements between the US and Europe regarding Greenland have increased, with the US imposing tariffs on eight European countries to coerce acceptance of its demands for the "complete acquisition of Greenland." European nations have expressed opposition and have sent symbolic military support to Greenland [6] - This geopolitical dispute directly impacts the pricing of key metals, as Greenland holds about 32% of the world's rare earth reserves and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, and nickel. The tensions have led to increased price volatility in rare earths and silver, and if the US gains control over the island, it could reshape the global rare earth supply chain [6] Structural Opportunities in Oil and Chemicals - The focus is on structural opportunities under the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy. Naphtha, as the "mother of chemicals," is produced through steam cracking and is a key feedstock for olefins and aromatics. The supply of naphtha is expected to face long-term bottlenecks due to declining gasoline demand and domestic refining capacity nearing policy ceilings [8] - The closure of high-cost, outdated refineries in Europe and Japan is creating market space for China's expanding chemical capacity, which could lead to significant fluctuations in olefin supply and pricing [8] Pricing Dynamics in Pulp and Soybeans - The global market for pulp is experiencing a significant shift, with new capacity for hardwood pulp increasing while softwood pulp capacity remains limited. The strong demand from China is expected to support prices, especially for needle pulp, as supply bottlenecks become clearer [9] - Domestic soybean prices remain high due to strong purchasing activity from state reserves and a reluctance among grain holders to sell. However, high prices are suppressing purchasing enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, leading to a potential "price without market" situation [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. On January 7, 2026, the soybean futures price reached a nearly 16 - month high, and the futures market activity continued to increase [1][29]. - The improvement is due to two main reasons: the better situation in the soybean spot market since 2025, including good auction results, the "low - opening and high - running" price of new - season Northeast soybeans, and the increase in both market and state - reserve purchase prices; and the strong policy sentiment, with industrial policies emphasizing key points to support the soybean industry's development, and the trading sentiment on the market being strong in response to policies. The policy sentiment boosts the trading sentiment and pushes up the price [1][29]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Soybean Futures Price Reaches a Phased High - On January 7, 2026, the closing price of the main 2605 contract of soybean futures was 4404 yuan/ton, reaching the highest point since mid - August 2024 [3]. - In 2025, the annual total trading volume of soybean futures was about 47.71 million lots (a year - on - year increase of about 65%), and the average daily trading volume was about 200,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of about 64%), both reaching the highest since 2022. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average daily trading volume climbed to the highest since 2021 [3]. - In 2025, the average daily open interest of soybean futures was about 320,000 lots, a year - on - year increase of about 49%, reaching a new high since 2021. As of the week of January 9, 2026, it was about 370,000 lots, hitting a new high [3]. 2. Improvement in the Spot Market - **Good Auction Results**: In 2025, the total auction volume of domestic soybeans was about 1.61 million tons, the highest since 2021. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned 26 times, with 23 successful auctions and 3 failures, and the average success rate was about 47%. Nearly half of the auctions were at a premium, and the last three auctions in December 2025 were all at a premium of 64 - 95 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in the success rate [8][13]. - **"Low - opening and High - running" Price of New - season Northeast Soybeans**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas dropped by 40 - 120 yuan/ton compared with the end of September. Then the price rebounded. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the price in the Northeast production area was 4260 - 4360 yuan/ton, a 440 - yuan/ton increase compared with the week of October 10, 2025. The price performance in 2025 was better than that in the same period of 2024 [13]. - **Increase in Market Purchase Price**: In 2025, the purchase price of new - season Northeast soybeans by some market enterprises was higher than that in the same period of 2024 and was in an upward trend. For example, on September 29, 2025, "Nehe Xiangyu Agricultural Products Co., Ltd." raised the purchase price to 1.92 yuan/jin, higher than the 1.9 yuan/jin in mid - October 2024, and it was further raised to 1.99 yuan/jin by November 9, 2025 [16]. - **Increase in State - reserve Purchase Price**: In 2025, the state - reserve purchase price was slightly increased. On November 3, 2025, the purchase prices for different protein levels were announced. On November 28, 2025, Suihua Direct Warehouse slightly raised the price, and on December 24, 2025, both the Hulunbuir Reserve Co., Ltd. and Suihua Direct Warehouse raised the purchase price again, with the state - reserve purchase price being higher than the market price and having a positive impact [20]. 3. Strong Policy Sentiment - **Industrial Policy**: Since the new soybeans were launched in mid - September 2025, domestic policies have supported the development of the soybean industry. Key points such as "grain production capacity improvement", "quality improvement", etc. were emphasized to support the development of the domestic soybean industry [23][24]. - **Trade Policy**: The domestic market also trades on changes in import soybean policies, such as Sino - US tariff policies and soybean import policies, due to the competitive pressure of imported soybeans on domestic soybeans [24]. - **Reserve Policy**: The domestic soybean auction rhythm affects short - term supply and market sentiment, and the market also trades on this [24]. 4. Conclusion - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. The improvement is due to the better situation in the spot market and strong policy sentiment. The policy can play a role in guiding the supply - demand relationship of the domestic soybean market and promoting the sustainable development of the industry. Later, attention should be paid to the No. 1 Central Document, the auction rhythm, and the selling pressure of farmers after the Spring Festival [1][29].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in soybean prices is attributed to a combination of supply-side dynamics and market sentiment, rather than a genuine supply shortage. The domestic soybean supply remains stable, with a projected production of approximately 20.9 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 1.2% year-on-year increase [3][12][13]. Supply Dynamics - The current soybean market is characterized by "loose total supply but tight circulation," as new beans are quickly released from grassroots selling pressure, leading to a transfer of ownership towards trade channels [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that domestic soybean production is not in a state of shortage, supporting the notion that the price increase is more about market dynamics than actual supply constraints [3][12]. - The recent adjustments in state reserve purchasing standards have been interpreted as a "policy bottom moving up," which has further elevated price levels [5][15]. Market Behavior - The behavior of grain holders, including farmers and trading companies, reflects a tendency to hold onto stocks due to expectations of policy support and concerns over tight domestic import supplies in the first quarter [4][14]. - The market has seen a significant transfer of soybean stocks from farmers to trade channels, with trade entities actively building inventories in response to concerns over potential disruptions in U.S. soybean imports [5][14]. - The recent auction of old soybeans has also boosted market sentiment, with a high transaction rate and premium prices indicating strong demand from traders [6][15]. Future Outlook - Two potential scenarios for the soybean market are identified: - Scenario A: Continued state reserve purchases or price adjustments could maintain a strong price center [7][16]. - Scenario B: A weakening of reserve purchasing efforts could lead to price corrections, particularly for lower-protein soybeans, while higher-protein soybeans may remain more resilient due to some rigid demand [7][16]. - The overall market is expected to remain supported by policy measures and pre-holiday stocking demands, but caution is advised regarding potential price volatility stemming from changes in import schedules and reserve release strategies [7][16].

Group 1 - The main contract for soybean futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 4396.00 yuan, with a current price of 4380.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.72% [1] - The market outlook for soybean prices is expected to remain strong due to a tight supply of high-protein soybeans and increased demand ahead of the traditional pre-Spring Festival stocking season [1] - The recent auction of soybeans showed high transaction rates and significant premiums, indicating strong short-term market demand [1] Group 2 - Domestic soybean prices continue to rise, supported by high premiums and transaction rates in recent auctions, with an increase in purchase prices for domestic soybeans [2] - The upcoming auction of trade grain in Jilin Province in mid-January is anticipated to further influence the domestic soybean market [2] - The supply risk for imported soybeans from South America remains low, with expectations of a bumper crop for the new season [2]

油料日报 | 2025-12-19 豆一供紧需弱价格持稳，花生预计稳中趋弱 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4041.00元/吨，较前日变化-49.00元/吨，幅度-1.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+159，较前日变化+49，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区大豆基层农户手中存粮较少，普遍存在较强的惜售观望情绪，期待价格进一步上涨， 导致市场上实际可流通粮源较为紧张。受此影响，部分大型加工企业收购价格呈现上涨趋势。同时中储粮入市收 购的政策进一步明确了市场价格的底部区间，为大豆价格提供了有力的底部支撑。在上述因素共同作用下，现货 市场行情表现偏强。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较前一日 平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.06元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Soybean oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Palm oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish inclination but low operability [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency with poor operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and appropriate investment chances [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading space [1] Core Views - The short - term policy is releasing supply to the market, while the new domestic soybean crop has a tightening supply and market hoarding sentiment [2] - The trading logic has changed, with concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a South American bumper harvest. Wait for South American weather changes and consider going long on the main 05 contract [3] - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil are falling, facing short - term downward pressure and high inventory pressure in the overseas palm oil market [4] - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a bearish trend dominated by supply, and attention should be paid to changes in trade policies [6] - The spot price of corn in the Northeast and North Ports has slightly declined, with the short - term Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillating at a high level [7] - The live pig futures have increased in positions, and the spot price is strong, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving [9] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Domestic soybean decline has slowed down, with a trading average price of 4030 yuan/ton and a rotation - in floor price of 4000 yuan/ton. Imported soybeans had an auction volume of 513,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3852.1 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.9% [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, and the US soybean futures price has fallen to a key position. Wait for South American weather changes to go long on the main 05 contract [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil have fallen below the lower edge of the range, and there is short - term downward pressure. The Malaysian palm oil market faces high inventory pressure [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector has fallen significantly. The Australian rapeseed is about to be pressed, and the Canadian rapeseed price is low. The sector is in a supply - dominated bearish trend [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in the Northeast has slightly declined, and the procurement in North China has cooled down. The short - term Dalian corn 03 contract oscillates at a high level [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have added over 10,000 lots. The spot price is strong this weekend, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry is in a fundamental improvement stage [9]

在11月28日，中储粮再度发布的两份公告中，收购入库价格均较上旬均有所抬升，除蛋白含量（干基） ≥39%净粮以外，其他蛋白含量的收购价格均环比上调0.025元／斤。公告发布后，市场信心明显提升， 尤其是东北产区，贸易商反馈出货价格在12月均有所上调，因目前农户手中余粮较少，后期收货价格预 计同样提升。 综上，国储大豆收购价格的上调，有利于提振市场情绪，卓创资讯预计12月国产大豆价格震荡上涨，东 北产区40%蛋白净粮价格或至2.18元／斤。 （作者：王文深，卓创资讯分析师） 受11月28日国储收购价格上调的消息提振，东北产区国产大豆价格纷纷上调，预计12月份国产大豆价格 将震荡上涨。 进入11月后，市场重点关注国储大豆拍卖情况，以及国储大豆收购情况。从11月的国储大豆拍卖情况 看，11月份的拍卖成交均价为3902元／吨，较10月份均价下跌0.13%；成交率均值为40.82%，较10月均 值38.27%增加2.55%。从量价走势看，价格走弱带动成交率的增加，但部分需求转向2022/23年度为主的 低价货源。出现这一局面的原因在于：一方面市场有一定刚需存在，另一方面下游认为目前市场价格偏 高，接受度下滑。 从国储大 ...