美豆大涨创新高，豆粕库存缓解 2025年11月18日 （2）国内大豆进口回落，油厂大豆到港回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月14日，油厂大豆到港量为182万吨，环比回落；港口大豆库存为992.6万吨，环比回落，仍 在高位。 （3）美豆大涨创近年新高。美农11月供需报告调减美豆单产及总产，期末库存调减；南美产量未调整；全球期末 库存进一步调减。美农报告数据偏多，但盘面先跌后涨。叠加中美贸易协定。美豆有望继续走高。 （4）油厂开机率回升，豆粕库存再落。油厂榨利回落，因巴豆成本高。据钢联数据：截至11月14日，油厂开机率 为57.15%，环比回升；大豆压榨量为207.76万吨，环比回升；油厂大豆库存为747.71万吨，环比回落。豆粕产量为 164.1万吨，环比回升；油厂豆粕库存为99.29万吨，环比微落；豆粕未执行合同为535.07万吨，环比回落。饲料厂 豆粕库存天数为8.23天，环比回升。 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Newly - harvested soybeans show a collision between a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South, with a decline in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After a price increase in October, the price is stagnant, but the state reserve purchase limits the downside. In the long run, the price center of domestic soybeans may shift upward [1][5] - Near - term trading logic involves price stagnation, reduced enthusiasm for mid - and downstream purchases, and sentiment suppression from potential US soybean imports. Long - term, high - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the price of domestic soybeans may break out of the bottom - range oscillation [1][3] - The seasonal reversal in October laid the foundation for the new - season listing cycle of domestic soybeans, and in the long term, the price may break through the bottom - range oscillation and the price center may rise significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The co - existence of a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South has led to a decrease in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After the price increase in October, it is currently stagnant. The state reserve purchase limits the price decline, and there is a lack of factors to drive further price increases [1] - The new changes in the domestic soybean market may change the bottom - range oscillation trend. High - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the consumption progress of medium - and low - protein soybeans will affect the price rhythm [1] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - For the 01 contract, short - term hedging above 4100 should be held, and long - term procurement can wait for a price decline to enter the market [6] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, planting entities can short the A2601 contract above 4100 to lock in profits with a 30% hedging ratio - For procurement management, those worried about price increases can mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [6] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some branches of Sinograin started purchasing new - season domestic soybeans this week, and there was no auction arrangement [7] - **Negative Information**: On November 10, 30,969 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned, suppressing price increase sentiment. The resumption of US soybean imports is becoming clearer, which will compete with medium - and low - protein domestic soybeans [3][8] 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Whether the rhythm of US soybean imports can be further clarified - Whether selling pressure will emerge after the price stagnation - The release of the latest US Department of Agriculture production and supply - demand report on November 14 - The trading results of the domestic soybean auction on November 10 [10][11] Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The weekly price of soybeans first fell and then rose, with a slight increase in the weekly line. The trading volume continued to expand, the open interest decreased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 10,556 lots [11] - The basis weakened slightly as the spot price stagnated and the futures price rose slightly - The 03 and 05 contracts were weak, the 01 contract was strong, and the overall monthly spread change was not significant [16][19] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the profit of 39 - protein clean grain has increased significantly compared to last year. Mid - stream trading enterprises have a stronger willingness to stockpile, but the profit of building storage is uncertain. Down - stream demand is more active, and high - protein soybeans are in short supply. The crushing profit has only small changes, resulting in a neutral purchasing attitude of oil mills [27] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - The supply of high - protein soybeans has decreased, and it will gradually tighten in the next 10 months. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans has increased. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the changes in the purchasing intensity of oil mills [31] 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - In November, the edible consumption of domestic soybeans is picking up, mainly for high - protein soybeans. Down - stream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the price of high - quality soybeans [32] - The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the arrival quantity in December and the soybean meal price to see if the crushing demand can increase as it did last year [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market prices rose significantly due to factors like partial production cuts in some regions and active acquisitions by middle - and downstream players. However, this led to cautious inventory building at the acquisition end, a sell - off due to price stagnation, and a subsequent price correction. The expected resumption of US soybean imports after Sino - US trade negotiations also dampened market sentiment and weakened the upward momentum of futures prices [4]. - On Tuesday, the soybean No.1 futures continued to decline. The main 01 contract dropped 37 yuan/ton to close at 4055 yuan, with slightly lower trading volume and open interest, and a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction and Risk Strategies - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the soybean No.1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.00% and a historical percentile of 37.4% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For planting entities with high demand for selling newly - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the soybean No.1 futures (A2601) when the price is above 4100 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: The new - season domestic soybeans are being purchased by the Hulunbuir warehouse of Sinograin at market prices, and the market is actively delivering. The production cut of high - protein soybeans supports market sentiment and acquisition behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - **Negative Factors**: After the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, China may resume and expand imports of US agricultural products, starting with soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybeans. The short - term supply - demand relationship has changed due to increased selling pressure at the grass - roots level and cautious inventory - building by enterprises. The significant increase in registered warehouse receipts on Tuesday also adds hedging pressure [4][8]. 3.3 Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices and Main Basis**: On November 4, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in different regions and their corresponding basis to the main contract are as follows: 3900 yuan in Harbin (- 135 basis), 3860 yuan in Nenjiang (- 216 basis), 3940 yuan in Jiamusi (- 136 basis), and 3970 yuan in Changchun (- 106 basis) [6]. - **Futures Closing Prices**: From November 3 to 4, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean No.1 futures contracts declined. For example, the 11 - contract dropped from 4076 yuan to 4044 yuan (- 0.79%), and the 01 - contract fell from 4076 yuan to 4055 yuan (- 0.52%) [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Beans for domestic consumption, Bean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Hold**: Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - Uncertainties remain high in the agricultural products market, with significant impact from Sino-US trade relations and policy guidance [3][4][6] - Maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to many uncertain factors, and look for investment opportunities [3] - Long-term, it is advisable to allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans for Domestic Consumption - The main contract of domestic soybeans rose and then fell. The trading volume was 52,003 tons, with a trading rate of 79.76% and an average price of 3,910 yuan/ton, providing market guidance [2] - The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rose and then fell. Pay attention to the impact of short-term profit-taking [2] - Keep an eye on policy guidance in the short term [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybeans rose 0.58% in shock, and domestic bean meal spot prices generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3] - Overall, soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino-US trade relations deteriorate [3] - If Sino-US trade relations do not ease, Dalian soybeans are likely to continue to fluctuate. Wait and see for opportunities [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil-to-meal ratio continued to decline [4] - Palm oil enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Its price depends on production reduction performance. Pay attention to the adjustment risk of the oil-to-meal ratio [4] - In the long term, allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price corrections of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures showed small fluctuations. Rapeseed oil slightly reduced positions, and the market was still cautious [6] - Coastal oil mills have low rapeseed inventories, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil [6] - The main contract price of rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations and consider cross-competitor strategies with rapeseed as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures traded sideways. Northeast corn prices were stable, and Shandong's corn supply increased [7] - Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures' near-term contracts fluctuated, and far-term contracts hit new lows [8] - Spot prices were stable, and second-round fattening sentiment weakened [8] - There is an expectation of improved pork consumption in the fourth quarter, but maintain a short-selling strategy after the price rebounds [8] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded with reduced positions. Spot prices rebounded [9] - Pay attention to short-term risks. There may be a decline in the medium term [9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, while international soybean prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations [1] Domestic Market Analysis - After the National Day holiday, the new season soybeans are being concentrated in the market, leading to an increase in supply [1] - The high cost of imported soybeans is driving smooth transactions for domestic soybeans, resulting in stable prices [1] International Market Analysis - The outlook for US-China trade negotiations remains uncertain, contributing to the fluctuations in the market [1] - Expectations of a bumper crop for US soybeans are strengthening, which is likely to keep international soybean prices in a low-level fluctuation [1]

Core Insights - The domestic soybean prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, while international soybean prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations [1][2]. Domestic Market Analysis - After the National Day holiday, the new season soybeans have been concentrated in the market, leading to an increase in supply [1][2]. - The high cost of imported soybeans has facilitated smooth transactions for domestic soybeans, resulting in stable prices [1][2]. International Market Analysis - The uncertainty surrounding the China-U.S. trade negotiations is impacting the international market [1][2]. - There is an expectation of abundant soybean production in the U.S., which reinforces the outlook for low-level fluctuations in international soybean prices [1][2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is supported by bullish factors in the short term, with strong buying enthusiasm from funds, but the industry should be cautious about hedging after the sharp rise [3] - The current upward trend of the soybean market is due to factors such as the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs. The continuous decoupling from US soybeans due to Sino - US economic and trade relations provides emotional support [3] - The current rise may be based on the current spot logic, and there is no significant expectation for the long - term supply - demand structure. The core issue is how to solve the problem of the shortage of imported soybeans at the beginning of next year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 24.7% [2] Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with a long spot position, when there is a high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and significant short - term selling pressure, they can short the A2601 soybean No. 1 futures contract at a ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 yuan to lock in planting profits [2] - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens, they can sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a ratio of 30% with a holding range of 30 - 50 to increase the grain - selling price [2] Procurement Management for Buyers - For those with a short spot position who are worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, they should mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. They can go long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2] Market Conditions - On the previous trading day, the soybean market accelerated its rise. The futures market broke through with increasing volume, and the spot prices rose to varying degrees. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1.56% to 4113 yuan, with an increase of 24,600 in positions and a trading volume of over 160,000 contracts, both hitting new highs since the contract was listed. The registered warehouse receipts remained at 7090 [3] Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production and delayed listing in the southern producing areas have increased the demand for goods from the northeastern producing areas, changing the supply - demand structure seasonally [6] - The restraint in the grain - selling sentiment, debt - repayment needs, and increased rigid purchases in the sales areas due to colder weather support the market [6] Bearish Factors - The selling pressure is scattered, and the subsequent listing volume in the southern producing areas will increase [6] - On October 24 at 10:30, CGSG.com plans to auction 65,201 tons of domestic soybeans from 2022 and 2023 [6] - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the rising price suppresses the demand for domestic soybean crushing. The sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [7] Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 23, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3890, 3840, 3920, and 3970 yuan respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 213, - 217, - 137, and - 87 yuan [7] Futures Closing Price - From October 22 to 23, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts all rose, with daily increases of 55, 56, 52, 47, 51, and 55 yuan respectively, and corresponding increases of 1.36%, 1.38%, 1.28%, 1.15%, 1.25%, and 1.34% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The new season of early-maturing soybeans in Heilongjiang has begun harvesting, with a focus on production yield, quality, and market sentiment among farmers and downstream enterprises [1] Planting Area Growth - The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has increased significantly due to factors such as planting profitability, policy subsidies, and crop rotation requirements, with an overall growth rate of approximately 8% [2] - The eastern region's planting area increased by 10%, while the western region saw a 7% increase compared to last year [2] - The average yield is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with some regions reporting yields between 300 to 560 jin per mu [2] Cost Reduction - Soybean planting costs have generally decreased, primarily due to a drop in land rental prices, which are now around 11,000 yuan per hectare, down by about 10% from last year [4] - The average planting cost in Heilongjiang is estimated to be around 14,500 yuan per hectare after subsidies, with the lowest cost being approximately 5,500 yuan per hectare [4] Price Trends - The opening price for the new season soybeans in Heilongjiang has shown a downward trend, with current purchase prices ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 yuan per jin [5] - There is a notable sentiment among farmers to hold onto their soybeans due to low initial prices, despite expectations of increased production [5] Demand Stability - The demand for domestic non-GMO soybeans remains relatively stable, with oil processing enterprises primarily using domestic soybeans for production [7] - Soybean food processing enterprises have stable procurement and production, focusing on quality and maintaining consistent supply [8] Trade and Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean prices are influenced by the procurement of South American soybeans, with Brazil's soybean import prices being competitive but not significantly advantageous over domestic soybeans [6] - The trading environment has become more challenging, with traders adapting to market fluctuations and utilizing futures and options for risk management [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soybean (Bean 1) [1] - Report date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Report cycle: Daily report [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoint - Currently, domestic soybean prices are generally stable with a slight decline, while imported soybean prices are stabilizing and rising. Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise crushing profits have stabilized and rebounded. In the futures market, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures showed a strong trend throughout the day. In the short term, in an atmosphere where the overall spot price of soybeans is rising steadily, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures may continue to show a strong oscillatory trend [14]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract (A2511) of DCE Bean 1 futures oscillated strongly throughout the day. The opening price was 3930 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3984 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3975 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.17% from the previous day. The trading volume was 105,525 lots, the open interest was 137,560 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 951 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The closing prices of contracts A2511, A2601, A2603, and A2605 were 3975 yuan/ton, 3973 yuan/ton, 3970 yuan/ton, and 4000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 46 yuan/ton (1.17%), 70 yuan/ton (1.79%), 67 yuan/ton (1.72%), and 65 yuan/ton (1.65%) respectively. The trading volumes were 105,525 lots, 56,116 lots, 5,614 lots, and 1,681 lots respectively, and the open interests were 137,560 lots, 136,282 lots, 34,333 lots, and 8,740 lots respectively. The daily increases in positions were 951 lots, 8816 lots, 168 lots, and 45 lots respectively [3]. 4.2 Spot Market - Today's Bean 1 basis was -15 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened. The total number of registered Bean 1 warehouse receipts was 7,290 lots, which was the same as the previous trading day [5]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 3971 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous observation day. Recently, the spot price of domestic soybeans has been generally stable with a slight decline. The port soybean inventory was 6.6094 million tons, an increase of 1.01% from the previous observation day. Recently, with the decrease in imported arrivals, the current port soybean inventory has generally decreased [8][9]. - **Industry News**: According to Wind data, today's near - month landed duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed a stable and rising trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4568.05 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 3975.71 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3792.05 yuan/ton. Recently, the decline in enterprise crushing profits has slowed down, and the crushing profits have rebounded [10]. 4.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, in an atmosphere where the overall spot price of soybeans is rising steadily, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures may continue to show a strong oscillatory trend [14].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, take a short - side allocation for soybeans and a bearish view on corn; for the long - term, wait for the bottom for corn, and there is no clear long - term rating for soybeans [8][12] Core View - National soybean production is expected to remain above 21 million tons, with a supply - demand imbalance leading to a likely price trend of high - opening and low - closing. Corn production is likely to increase, with a high - opening and low - closing price, and no major unilateral market is expected this year [8][12] Content Summary by Category 1. Soybean - **Planting and Yield**: Influenced by policies and subsidies, the planting area of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased in 2025. Western regions maintained stable yields, while eastern regions had significant yield declines. Overall, the provincial yield was flat or slightly increased, and national production is expected to remain above 21 million tons [6] - **Cost and Subsidies**: The land rent cost of new - season domestic soybeans decreased, especially in the east. The comprehensive agricultural input cost was about 3,000 - 4,500 yuan/ha. Soybean subsidies were significantly higher than those for corn [7] - **Protein Content**: Due to the government's encouragement of high - oil soybean planting, the proportion of high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 40%, and the high - and low - protein differentiation was severe [7] - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry of domestic soybeans was not optimistic, with a supply - demand imbalance. Non - GMO soybean pressing enterprises faced challenges, and food and protein enterprises had stable processing and consumption but no growth in demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybeans may open high and close low. When the rough grain price is below 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, farmers may hold back sales. The short - term strategy is a short - side allocation [8] 2. Corn - **Planting and Yield**: Due to factors such as weather, subsidies, and economic benefits, the corn planting area in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year, especially in the east. Most areas had increased yields, and the overall production was slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023 [11] - **Cost and Quality**: The land rent cost was the same as that of soybeans, and the agricultural input cost in the east was basically unchanged. The quality of new - season corn was better than last year, especially in terms of high bulk density [11] - **Price and Market**: The opening price of corn was high but trended down. The short - term market was bearish, and the long - term market needed to wait for the bottom. The market was likely to be volatile with a smaller amplitude than last year [12]