1. Overall Situation - The soybean futures and spot prices have fluctuated recently. The main contract of Dou - Yi 2605 has stopped falling in a volatile adjustment, and the spot price has dropped from 4,840 yuan/ton to around 4,700 yuan/ton in Fujin. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 has continued to decline, and the spot price has dropped from 3,300 yuan/ton to around 3,150 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang [3]. 2. Domestic Soybean Sales and Auction - Domestic soybean sales are sluggish, and the sales progress is slow. As of March 27, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang was 30% (unchanged from the previous week), 35% in Anhui (down 1% from the previous week), 39% in Henan (down 1% from the previous week), and 40% in Shandong (down 1% from the previous week). The remaining grain is much higher than the same period last year. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned again at the end of March, with over 200,000 tons auctioned and a low transaction rate [3]. 3. Soybean Import and Arrival - With the listing of South American soybeans, the domestic market may shift to concentrated imports of Brazilian soybeans. As of March 27, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.586 million tons, a week - on - week increase, and the port soybean inventory was 4.828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. 4. U.S. Soybean Situation - U.S. soybeans have been in a volatile consolidation recently. The negotiation between the U.S. and Iran may take place, but the result is unknown, and the crude oil price is still strong. The upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) planting report is worthy of attention. The planting area of new - season U.S. soybeans may increase, and the previous USDA Outlook Forum predicted it to be 85 million acres (a 4.7% year - on - year increase) [4]. 5. Oil Mill Operations and Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, and the soybean meal inventory has increased. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market is good. As of March 27, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.53%, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 4.8202 million tons, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean meal output was 1.449 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 676,800 tons, a slight week - on - week increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 2.718 million tons, a week - on - week decrease. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.35 days, a week - on - week increase, indicating strong downstream demand [4]. 6. Feed Demand and Livestock Farming - Feed demand is strong in the short term, but long - term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the pig - farming industry, pig prices have fallen to extremely low levels, and farming is seriously loss - making. As of March 27, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 189.87 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 344.24 yuan per head. In the poultry industry, egg prices have rebounded, but farming still incurs losses. In February, the sales volume of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in February increased month - on - month. The high inventory of livestock and poultry currently supports feed demand, but the increasing losses may accelerate capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [5]. 7. Market Outlook - Due to the sluggish sales of domestic soybeans and the resumption of state - reserve auctions, and the increase in imports of non - genetically modified soybeans, it is expected that Dou - Yi will enter a high - level volatile state. With the increase in domestic soybean arrivals, attention should be paid to the import of Brazilian soybeans from South America. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, the soybean meal inventory has increased, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean meal will return to a fundamental volatile trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed a mixed trend. The main contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main contract of soybean No. 2 decreased by 2.05%, the main contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [5][7][8][9]. - In the short - term, the soybean market in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation pattern, but there is a possibility of a slight correction for soybeans of general quality. The price of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is closely related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slow and precipitation in some areas is uneven, it is difficult to change the fact of a Brazilian soybean bumper harvest, and the impact on the current market is limited. The long - term price of soybean meal is suppressed by the expected increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May [5][7][8]. - The core drivers of the current edible oil market are concentrated in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about the impact of geopolitics on the energy supply chain and the uncertainty of the US biofuel policy [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 5.34%. By the end of this month, there will be a small peak of soybean auctions with a cumulative release of about 10,000 tons. The downstream enterprises mainly adopt a strategy of purchasing as needed, and the price increase momentum is insufficient. There may be a slight correction for soybeans of general quality [5]. - **Soybean No. 2**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 2.05%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. The slow harvest progress and uneven precipitation in some Brazilian regions have limited impact on the current market [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 3.04%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean meal price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. In the long - term, the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the significant increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May will suppress the forward price of soybean meal [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main 2605 contract increased by 0.7%. The core drivers of the edible oil market are in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about geopolitics and the US biofuel policy. Brazilian soybean crushers urged the government to allow higher - proportion biodiesel blending, which supports the oil price [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Changes**: The main 2605 contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main 2605 contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main 2605 contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [13][19][26]. - **Spread**: As of March 26, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was - 78 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton [31][34]. - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, the net position of the top 20 in soybean No. 1 futures was - 14,475 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 20,942 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures was - 554,182 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 34,913 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures was - 121,795 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 24,690 lots [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Soybean**: As of March 26, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton [54]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 26, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 328 yuan/ton [62]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 26, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 26, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in April was 92 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Argentine soybeans in April was - 36 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans in April was 10 cents/bu, an increase of 20 cents/bu from last week [71]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 26, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4,569.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.8 yuan/ton from last week; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,859.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.55 yuan/ton from last week; the difference in arrival cost between the two was 709.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.25 yuan/ton from last week [75]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the US, about 42% of the soybean - producing areas were in a drought state, and the drought situation was slightly alleviated compared with last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the precipitation pattern will change significantly in the next week, with a drying trend in the north, southeast, and central regions, and local rainfall in the south at the beginning of next week, which is expected to have no impact on the harvest progress [78][82]. - **Upstream Supply**: In 2025/26, the expected output of US soybeans was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 951.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last month. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans was 18,000 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged from last month. The expected output of Argentine soybeans was 4,800 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from last month; the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged from last month [86][90][94]. - **Domestic Industry**: In the 12th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from last week, a decrease of 6.75%, and an increase of 2.5977 million tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 103.17%. The soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from last week, an increase of 6.89%, and a decrease of 78,700 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 10.50%. The national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0537 million tons, a decrease of 24,700 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.29%, and an increase of 39,900 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.94%. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week, and the actual startup rate was 54.81% [108][111][114][119]. - **Substitute Products**: As of March 26, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil widened, while the spot and futures spreads of rapeseed - soybean oil narrowed. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,693.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139.47 yuan/ton from last week; the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,294 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.24, an increase of 0.03 from last week. The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.93, an increase of 0.1 from last week [132][135][139][142]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of March 20, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 945,100 tons, an increase of 117,000 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 160,700 tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons from last week [147]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Livestock and Poultry Prices**: As of March 26, the price of live pigs (externally - three - way) in Beijing was 9.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 21.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6 yuan/kg from last week [151]. - **Breeding Profits**: As of March 18, the pig - breeding profit was - 415.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 44.96 yuan/head from last week; as of March 20, the poultry - breeding profit was - 0.32 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from last week [156]. - **Feed Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [159]. - **Livestock Inventory**: In February, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57% [164]. 3.6 Options Market - There is only a figure of the historical volatility of at - the - money options of the soybean meal contract in the report, but no specific data analysis is provided [165].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contracts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all declined. The decline of the main soybean contract was 3.28%, the main soybean meal contract was 3.16%, and the main soybean oil contract was 0.71%. [5][7][8] - For soybeans, as the weather warms up, storage becomes difficult, but farmers still hold on to their stocks. Traders are less willing to buy due to lack of confidence in the market. Downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories and are cautious in purchasing. [5] - For soybean meal and soybeans, although the improvement of the Argentine soybean crop rating and the recovery of Brazilian exports suppress prices, geopolitical crises support prices. The domestic spot market has improved, and the market expects a possible tightening of imported soybean supplies in March - April. [6][7] - For soybean oil, the domestic supply - demand pattern is still loose. Price increases are mainly driven by external costs, but high prices suppress terminal demand. [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Soybeans**: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybeans fell by 3.28%. As the weather warms up, storage becomes difficult, and geopolitical uncertainties add pressure. Traders are less active in purchasing, and downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories and are cautious in purchasing. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybean meal fell by 3.16%. Geopolitical factors and South American weather affect prices. The domestic spot market has improved, and there is a short - term release of terminal procurement demand. [7] - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybean oil fell by 0.71%. There are speculations about the US bio - fuel policy. The domestic supply - demand pattern is loose, and high prices suppress terminal demand. [8] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Changes**: The main 2605 contracts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all declined this week, with declines of 3.28%, 3.16%, and 0.71% respectively. [12][19][25] - **Spread**: As of March 19, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 33 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 86 yuan/ton. [31][34] - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 19, the net position of the top 20 in soybean futures was - 19,500 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean contract were 22,437 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures was - 558,979 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean meal contract were 36,728 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures was - 136,063 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean oil contract were 25,342 lots. [39][44][50] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Soybeans**: As of March 19, the spot price of third - grade domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main soybean contract was - 396 yuan/ton. [54] - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 19, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 318 yuan/ton. [60] - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 19, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main soybean oil contract was 284 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week. [66] - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 19, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in April was 97 cents/bushel, a decrease of 18 cents/bushel from last week; the FOB premium of Argentine soybeans in April was - 31 cents/bushel, a decrease of 51 cents/bushel from last week; the FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans in April was - 10 cents/bushel, an increase of 19 cents/bushel from last week. [70] - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 19, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4,516.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 896.05 yuan/ton from last week; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,835.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.9 yuan/ton from last week; the difference in arrival cost between the two was 681.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 823.15 yuan/ton from last week. [75] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the United States, the drought situation in soybean - producing areas has slightly eased compared with last week but is worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, there are sporadic showers in some areas, and the temperature in some areas is higher than normal. [78][82] - **Upstream Supply**: In 2025/26, the expected output of US soybeans is 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory is 951.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected output of Brazilian soybeans is 18,000 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory is 3,791 million tons, unchanged from last month; the expected output of Argentine soybeans is 4,800 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory is 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged from last month. [86][90][94] - **Domestic Situation**: In the 11th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 4.20% from last week and an increase of 73.17% from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 17.51% from last week and a decrease of 8.16% from the same period last year; the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0834 million tons, a decrease of 0.97% from last week and an increase of 2.12% from the same period last year. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 11th week was 1.9694 million tons, an increase of 136,400 tons from the previous week, and the actual startup rate was 54.23%. In February 2026, the soybean import volume was 5.976 million tons, a decrease of 595,000 tons from January. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons, an increase of 36.17% from last month and 37.61% from the same period last year. As of March 19, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 49.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.9 yuan/ton from last week, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the March shipping schedule was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last week. [108][111][114][119][122][125][128] - **Substitute Situation**: As of March 19, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil have narrowed, while the spot and futures spreads of rapeseed - soybean oil have widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,693.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139.47 yuan/ton from last week; the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,294 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.24, an increase of 0.03 from last week. The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.83, unchanged from last week. [133][136][140][143] - **Transaction Situation**: As of March 13, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 828,100 tons, an increase of 391,000 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 234,200 tons, an increase of 159,300 tons from last week. [148] - **Downstream Situation**: As of March 19, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week; the price of piglets was 23.34 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of March 20, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.32 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from last week. As of December 2025, the monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In February, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. [152][157][160][165] 3.5 Options Market - No specific analysis content is provided, only a chart of the historical volatility of at - the - money options of the soybean meal contract is shown. [166]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [5][7][8]. - The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a slight upward trend in the short - term, with high - protein soybeans remaining high and firm [5]. - The South American soybean production outlook is a key variable in the global market. If the Brazilian soybean production reduction expands, it may support the US soybean price [6][7]. - The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be favorable, which has led to an optimistic market expectation for future bio - fuel demand [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean (Bean 1)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.69% this week. After the festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast is expected to rise slightly, with high - protein soybeans having limited upward momentum [5]. - **Imported Soybeans (Bean 2)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.55% this week. The South American production outlook is crucial. Some institutions have lowered their Brazilian production estimates, and the US soybean ending stocks forecast remains unchanged [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 7.31% this week. The South American production outlook is a key factor. Domestic market concerns about supply in late March to early April have led to increased trading volume, and downstream feed enterprises' inventories are relatively sufficient in the short - term [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 3.3% this week. The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be introduced, and the market is optimistic. After the Spring Festival, domestic oil prices have risen, but downstream purchases are cautious [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [12][19][25]. - **Spread**: As of March 12, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 4 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil was 92 yuan/ton [31][34]. - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 12, the net positions of the top 20 in soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures were - 26,511 lots, - 490,684 lots, and - 126,592 lots respectively. The warehouse receipts of the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 24,618 lots, 36,982 lots, and 25,714 lots respectively [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Soybean**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 3 domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was - 449 yuan/ton [54]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 12, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 226 yuan/ton [60]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 268 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 12, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, unchanged from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 20 cents/bushel, down 16 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 29 cents/bushel, down 19 cents/bushel from last week [70]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 12, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,412.7 yuan/ton, up 203.54 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,908.4 yuan/ton, up 188.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the cost difference was 1,504.66 yuan/ton, up 14.7 yuan/ton from last week [74]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the US, about 47% (+3) of the soybean - producing areas were in drought last week, with a slight improvement compared to last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress as of March 7 was 50.6% [77][95]. - **Supply - Side**: In 2025/26, the expected US soybean production was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory was 951.6 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected Brazilian soybean production was 18,000 million tons, unchanged, and the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged; the expected Argentine soybean production was 4,800 million tons, down 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged [84][88][92]. - **Domestic Situation**: In the 10th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, down 4.03% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, up 8.46% from last week; the soybean oil inventory was 1.094 million tons, down 0.26% from last week. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 10th week was 1.833 million tons, and the actual operating rate was 50.47%. China's soybean imports in January and February 2026 were 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons respectively. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons [106][109][112][117][120][123]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of March 12, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,220 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, while the rapeseed - soybean spreads widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,702.63 yuan/ton, up 136.31 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 577 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal/rapeseed meal ratio was 1.21, up 0.03 from last week. The soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.83, down 0.11 from last week [131][134][138][141]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 437,100 tons, up 264,500 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 74,900 tons, down 4,950 tons from last week [146]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Prices**: As of March 12, the price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 24.6 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from last week [150]. - **Profits**: As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, down 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.09 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird from last week [155]. - **Demand**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, up 1.03% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, down 0.01% month - on - month and 0.48% year - on - year; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, up 1.79% month - on - month and 5.57% year - on - year [158][163].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Soybean No. 1, the market is expected to see price increases in the short - term due to tight supply of high - quality soybeans and improved spot market trading, but attention should be paid to downstream procurement rhythm and external market trends [5]. - For Soybean No. 2, the price increase is mainly due to the slow harvest progress in South America and the drought in some regions, which has led to a decrease in the estimated Brazilian soybean production and an increase in US soybean prices, thus boosting the domestic futures market [6]. - For soybean meal, although the domestic futures market is boosted by the situation in South America, the domestic supply pressure is still high, and the downstream buying enthusiasm is low, so the spot price is stable and weak [7]. - For soybean oil, factors such as the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the expected improvement in bio - fuel demand, and the situation in South American soybean production have led to an increase in US soybean prices, which in turn has boosted the domestic futures market. The US bio - fuel policy is also expected to increase the demand for soybean oil [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: The main 2605 contract fell 1% this week. With the end of the remaining grain at the grass - roots level, the supply of high - quality soybeans is tight. The 40 - protein soybeans are popular, while the higher - protein soybeans have a slower sales speed. After the Lantern Festival, logistics is expected to improve, and short - term prices may rise [5]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.88% this week. The slow harvest in South America and the drought in some regions have led to a decrease in the estimated Brazilian soybean production, and the rising US soybean prices have boosted the domestic futures market [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.89% this week. The situation in South America has boosted the domestic futures market, but the domestic supply pressure remains high, and the downstream buying enthusiasm is low [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.26% this week. The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the expected improvement in bio - fuel demand, and the situation in South American soybean production have led to an increase in US soybean prices, which has boosted the domestic futures market. The US bio - fuel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil [8]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Soybean No. 1**: The main 2605 contract fell 1% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 13,800 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 25,018 lots [14][39]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.89% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 543,263 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 38,829 lots. The 05 - 09 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [19][31][46]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.26% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 114,381 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 26,255 lots. The 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [26][34][52]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Soybean No. 1**: As of March 5, the spot price of third - grade domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of the main contract was - 552 yuan/ton [56]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 5, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the main contract was 197 yuan/ton [64]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 5, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the main contract was 280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week [70]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 5, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, a decrease of 15 cents/bushel from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 36 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 10 cents/bushel, a decrease of 30 cents/bushel from last week [74]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 5, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,209.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.01 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,719.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from last week. The cost difference between them was 1,489.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31 yuan/ton from last week [78]. 3.4 Weather Situation - **North America**: Last week, about 44% (+6) of the soybean - producing areas in the US were in a drought state. Compared with last week, the area with severe drought or above (D2 +) was 20%, and the D3 + area remained unchanged. Compared with the same period last year, the D1 + area decreased by 2%, the D2 + area increased by 16%, and the D3 + area increased by 6% [81]. - **Brazil**: The northern part of Brazil has continuous rainfall, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The southern part is in the process of corn harvesting and seedling planting, but due to insufficient soil moisture, continuous rainfall is needed. Most of the southern regions were dry this week, but rainfall is expected to increase this weekend and spread to central Brazil [85]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - **Supply - Side in the US**: As of February 2026, the expected production of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 951.7 million tons, unchanged from last month [89]. - **Supply - Side in Brazil**: As of February 2026, the expected production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 18,000 million tons, an increase of 200 million tons from last month; the ending inventory was 3,791 million tons, an increase of 100 million tons from last month [93]. - **Supply - Side in Argentina**: As of February 2026, the expected production of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 4,850 million tons, unchanged from last month; the ending inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, an increase of 7.9 million tons from last month [97]. - **Planting and Harvesting Progress**: As of February 28, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 41.7%, an increase of 9.8% from last week. As of February 25, 2026, the soybean planting progress in Argentina reached 100%, unchanged from last week [100]. - **Export Situation**: US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 45% from the previous week and 24% from the same period last year. As of February 26, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 383,500 tons, lower than the previous week. The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in February 2026 was 1,069 million tons, an increase of 9.9% from the same period last year [105][108]. 3.6 Industry Situation - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Inventory**: In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.9669 million tons, an increase of 771,500 tons (14.85%) from last week and an increase of 1.8129 million tons (43.64%) from the same period last year [111]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Meal Inventory**: In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 701,200 tons, a decrease of 141,300 tons (16.77%) from last week and an increase of 71,900 tons (11.43%) from the same period last year [114]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0968 million tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons (3.62%) from last week and an increase of 7,100 tons (0.65%) from the same period last year [117]. - **Domestic Situation - Oil Mill Operating Rate**: In the 9th week of 2026 (from February 21 to February 27), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 588,600 tons, an increase of 551,400 tons from the previous week and 200,100 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume. The actual operating rate was 16.19% [122]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Import**: In December 2025, the total import volume of soybeans was 8.044 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 103,000 tons from the same period last year [123]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Arrival**: The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons, an increase of 1.873 million tons (36.17%) from the previous month and an increase of 1.927 million tons (37.61%) from the same period last year [128]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Profit**: As of March 5, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 5.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton from last week. The gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the March shipping schedule was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last week [131]. - **Substitute Situation - Palm Oil and Rapeseed Oil Prices**: As of March 5, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from last week [136]. - **Substitute Situation - Price Spreads**: This week, the spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed, the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened, the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil remained unchanged, the futures price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and palm oil narrowed, and the futures price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened [139]. - **Substitute Situation - Rapeseed Meal Price and Spread**: As of March 5, the average price of rapeseed meal was 2,566.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.95 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.18, a decrease of 0.03 from last week [142]. - **Substitute Situation - Oil - Meal Ratio**: As of March 5, 2025, the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.94, an increase of 0.05 from last week [145]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 172,600 tons, an increase of 172,600 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 79,850 tons, an increase of 79,850 tons from last week [150]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - **Downstream Situation - Pig and Piglet Prices**: As of March 5, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 10.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 25.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week [153]. - **Downstream Situation - Breeding Profits**: As of February 11, the pig - breeding profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - breeding profit was - 0.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/head from last week [158]. - **Demand - Side - Feed Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [161]. - **Demand - Side - Sow and Pig Inventory**: In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57% [166].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean sales slow down, the price remains stable, and there is still a certain amount of surplus grain before the Spring Festival; the domestic imported soybeans decline, the port inventory drops, the auction is postponed; the oil - mill operating rate rebounds, the soybean meal inventory decreases, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean futures will fluctuate strongly, while soybean meal futures will remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main soybean contract 2605 quickly soared to 4440 and then quickly fell back, hitting a new high in nearly a year. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4400 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main soybean meal contract 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly and steadily, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3070 yuan/ton. The basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - The sales of domestic soybeans slowed down. As of January 23, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans remained at 40% month - on - month; that of Anhui soybeans dropped to 48%, a 2% month - on - month decrease; that of Henan soybeans dropped to 52%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; and that of Shandong soybeans dropped to 53%, a 3% month - on - month decrease. Due to the differentiation of grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continued. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, enterprise procurement slowed down [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - Imported soybeans continued to decline, and the port soybean inventory continued to drop. In December 2025, China imported 804300 tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decline and a 1.28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imported soybeans in 2025 were 111818500 tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. There was no latest imported soybean auction announcement. The soybeans purchased from the US by China might enter the reserve rotation. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continued to decline. As of January 23, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 174200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the port soybean inventory was 721500 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans fluctuated at a low level. The USDA January supply - demand report was bearish. The US soybean production was slightly increased, exports were slightly reduced, but the ending stocks were significantly increased. The Brazilian soybean production was increased, and the global ending stocks were increased. Attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil - mill and Soybean Meal Situation - The operating rate of oil mills rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continued to drop. As of January 23, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.83%, a month - on - month rebound; the soybean crushing volume was 2102100 tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6589900 tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal output was 1661000 tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 898600 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4061600 tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 10.21 days, a continuous month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - The feed demand was strong. In terms of livestock farming, the pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, an increase in profit; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head, an increase in profit. The reduction of production capacity achieved certain results. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs in December both decreased. From the situation of large - scale farms, the inventory of breeding sows continued to decline month - on - month in December, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in nearly a year. However, the profit might drag down the pace of future production capacity reduction. In terms of poultry farming, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding turned from loss to profit; the culling of old chickens increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. The feed demand was still strong, and feed enterprises actively stocked up [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★★☆ [1] - Yumi: ★★★ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybean futures are strong, and the spot market is stable. The supply is tight, but the policy auction has improved the marginal supply. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the re - inflation of commodities has an overflow effect. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2]. - After the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America becomes the main trading logic, the market has digested it. The harvest of new - season Brazilian soybeans is slow. China has completed a high proportion of soybean procurement for February, March, and April. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term soybean and soybean meal futures will continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally. Indonesia's plantation nationalization policy strengthens pricing power. The US biodiesel policy is favorable for US soybean oil prices. The re - inflation of commodities has an overflow effect. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [4]. - The uncertainty in the rapeseed market lies in the import end. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased, boosting domestic rapeseed futures prices. The overall rapeseed market is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [6]. - The spot price of corn is stable. The snow in the Northeast has boosted the bullish sentiment, and the sales progress is slow. The inventory of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the pre - holiday replenishment demand has pushed up the price. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7]. - The spot price of pigs is weak, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. After mid - January, the second - fattening before the Spring Festival has basically ended, and the industry will face accelerated slaughter. It is expected that the pig price will reach a low point in the first half of next year [8]. - The spot price of eggs is strong due to the decline in supply and pre - holiday food factory procurement. The strength of the spot has been transmitted to the near - month futures. There are signs of slower culling and better replenishment in the egg industry chain, which is not conducive to the strength of the far - month egg prices. In the short term, observe whether the pre - holiday spot price can be maintained, and in the medium - long term, consider buying on dips for the first - half - year contracts [9]. Summary by Directory Douyi - The domestic soybean futures price is strong with increased positions. The spot market is stable, supply is tight, but policy auctions improve marginal supply. Demand may improve marginally, and there is an overflow effect from commodity re - inflation. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [2] Doupo - After the market digested the South American bumper - harvest expectation, the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest is slow. China has completed a high proportion of soybean procurement. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term futures will oscillate at the bottom [3] Douyou and Zonglvyou - The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally. Indonesia's policy strengthens pricing power. The US biodiesel policy is favorable for US soybean oil prices. There is an overflow effect from commodity re - inflation. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [4] Caipo and Caiyou - The uncertainty in the rapeseed market is at the import end. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased, boosting domestic rapeseed futures prices. The overall rapeseed market is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [6] Yumi - The spot price of corn is stable. The snow in the Northeast has boosted the bullish sentiment, and the sales progress is slow. The inventory of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the pre - holiday replenishment demand has pushed up the price. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] Shengzhu - The spot price of pigs is weak, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. After mid - January, the second - fattening before the Spring Festival has basically ended, and the industry will face accelerated slaughter. It is expected that the pig price will reach a low point in the first half of next year [8] Jidan - The spot price of eggs is strong due to the decline in supply and pre - holiday food factory procurement. The strength of the spot has been transmitted to the near - month futures. There are signs of slower culling and better replenishment in the egg industry chain, which is not conducive to the strength of the far - month egg prices. In the short term, observe whether the pre - holiday spot price can be maintained, and in the medium - long term, consider buying on dips for the first - half - year contracts [9]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical pressure between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, with the US State Department issuing a high-level security warning for citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran [1][17] - Iran's response has been strong, with military readiness declared and warnings issued against US military bases and shipping targets, while also expressing willingness for negotiations [1][17] Impact on Global Commodity Markets - The tensions pose significant risks to the global commodity market, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transport; any disruption could lead to a spike in oil prices [2][17] - Iran is a key exporter of methanol, LPG, and polyethylene, with methanol accounting for nearly half of China's imports, making the supply chain vulnerable to conflict [2][17] - Geopolitical risk premiums have driven prices of safe-haven assets like gold and silver to historical highs, potentially affecting the metals market as well [2][17] Greenland Dispute - The US has announced tariffs on eight European countries to pressure them into accepting the US's demands for the complete acquisition of Greenland, which has led to increased tensions with Europe [3][17] - Greenland holds about 32% of the world's rare earth reserves and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, and nickel, making the dispute impactful on key metal pricing [3][17] - The geopolitical tensions may lead to strategic reserve behaviors among countries regarding important metal raw materials [3][18] Structural Opportunities in Petrochemicals - The focus is on structural opportunities under the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy, particularly concerning naphtha supply tightness due to peak gasoline demand and refinery capacity constraints [5][20] - The closure of high-cost refineries in Europe and Japan is expected to create market space for China's expanding chemical capacity, leading to discussions on potential volatility in ethylene supply [5][20] Pulp and Soybean Pricing Dynamics - The global supply of hardwood pulp is increasing, while softwood pulp supply remains limited, with a 9% year-on-year increase in shipments to China noted [7][21] - Domestic soybean prices have remained high following a significant price increase, driven by state grain reserves and cautious selling behavior from grain holders [15][29] - The potential for a release of social inventory post-Spring Festival could pressure soybean prices, alongside external factors affecting import dynamics [15][29]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical pressure between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, with the US State Department issuing a highest-level security warning for citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening a 25% tariff on countries conducting business with Iran. The US military has increased troop presence in the Middle East and is considering various military strike options, including airstrikes on military facilities [5] - Iran has responded strongly, with its Supreme Leader calling for national unity and the military entering a state of maximum readiness, warning of retaliation against US military bases and shipping targets if attacked. Both sides are in a "testing state" on the brink of war, where any miscalculation could trigger conflict [5] - The tensions pose significant risks to the global commodity market, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transport. A disruption could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices [5] - Iran is a key exporter of methanol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and polyethylene, with Iran's methanol accounting for nearly half of China's imports. Conflict could directly threaten the supply chain of these chemical products [5] Greenland Dispute - Disagreements between the US and Europe regarding Greenland have increased, with the US imposing tariffs on eight European countries to coerce acceptance of its demands for the "complete acquisition of Greenland." European nations have expressed opposition and have sent symbolic military support to Greenland [6] - This geopolitical dispute directly impacts the pricing of key metals, as Greenland holds about 32% of the world's rare earth reserves and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, and nickel. The tensions have led to increased price volatility in rare earths and silver, and if the US gains control over the island, it could reshape the global rare earth supply chain [6] Structural Opportunities in Oil and Chemicals - The focus is on structural opportunities under the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy. Naphtha, as the "mother of chemicals," is produced through steam cracking and is a key feedstock for olefins and aromatics. The supply of naphtha is expected to face long-term bottlenecks due to declining gasoline demand and domestic refining capacity nearing policy ceilings [8] - The closure of high-cost, outdated refineries in Europe and Japan is creating market space for China's expanding chemical capacity, which could lead to significant fluctuations in olefin supply and pricing [8] Pricing Dynamics in Pulp and Soybeans - The global market for pulp is experiencing a significant shift, with new capacity for hardwood pulp increasing while softwood pulp capacity remains limited. The strong demand from China is expected to support prices, especially for needle pulp, as supply bottlenecks become clearer [9] - Domestic soybean prices remain high due to strong purchasing activity from state reserves and a reluctance among grain holders to sell. However, high prices are suppressing purchasing enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, leading to a potential "price without market" situation [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. On January 7, 2026, the soybean futures price reached a nearly 16 - month high, and the futures market activity continued to increase [1][29]. - The improvement is due to two main reasons: the better situation in the soybean spot market since 2025, including good auction results, the "low - opening and high - running" price of new - season Northeast soybeans, and the increase in both market and state - reserve purchase prices; and the strong policy sentiment, with industrial policies emphasizing key points to support the soybean industry's development, and the trading sentiment on the market being strong in response to policies. The policy sentiment boosts the trading sentiment and pushes up the price [1][29]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Soybean Futures Price Reaches a Phased High - On January 7, 2026, the closing price of the main 2605 contract of soybean futures was 4404 yuan/ton, reaching the highest point since mid - August 2024 [3]. - In 2025, the annual total trading volume of soybean futures was about 47.71 million lots (a year - on - year increase of about 65%), and the average daily trading volume was about 200,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of about 64%), both reaching the highest since 2022. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average daily trading volume climbed to the highest since 2021 [3]. - In 2025, the average daily open interest of soybean futures was about 320,000 lots, a year - on - year increase of about 49%, reaching a new high since 2021. As of the week of January 9, 2026, it was about 370,000 lots, hitting a new high [3]. 2. Improvement in the Spot Market - **Good Auction Results**: In 2025, the total auction volume of domestic soybeans was about 1.61 million tons, the highest since 2021. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned 26 times, with 23 successful auctions and 3 failures, and the average success rate was about 47%. Nearly half of the auctions were at a premium, and the last three auctions in December 2025 were all at a premium of 64 - 95 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in the success rate [8][13]. - **"Low - opening and High - running" Price of New - season Northeast Soybeans**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas dropped by 40 - 120 yuan/ton compared with the end of September. Then the price rebounded. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the price in the Northeast production area was 4260 - 4360 yuan/ton, a 440 - yuan/ton increase compared with the week of October 10, 2025. The price performance in 2025 was better than that in the same period of 2024 [13]. - **Increase in Market Purchase Price**: In 2025, the purchase price of new - season Northeast soybeans by some market enterprises was higher than that in the same period of 2024 and was in an upward trend. For example, on September 29, 2025, "Nehe Xiangyu Agricultural Products Co., Ltd." raised the purchase price to 1.92 yuan/jin, higher than the 1.9 yuan/jin in mid - October 2024, and it was further raised to 1.99 yuan/jin by November 9, 2025 [16]. - **Increase in State - reserve Purchase Price**: In 2025, the state - reserve purchase price was slightly increased. On November 3, 2025, the purchase prices for different protein levels were announced. On November 28, 2025, Suihua Direct Warehouse slightly raised the price, and on December 24, 2025, both the Hulunbuir Reserve Co., Ltd. and Suihua Direct Warehouse raised the purchase price again, with the state - reserve purchase price being higher than the market price and having a positive impact [20]. 3. Strong Policy Sentiment - **Industrial Policy**: Since the new soybeans were launched in mid - September 2025, domestic policies have supported the development of the soybean industry. Key points such as "grain production capacity improvement", "quality improvement", etc. were emphasized to support the development of the domestic soybean industry [23][24]. - **Trade Policy**: The domestic market also trades on changes in import soybean policies, such as Sino - US tariff policies and soybean import policies, due to the competitive pressure of imported soybeans on domestic soybeans [24]. - **Reserve Policy**: The domestic soybean auction rhythm affects short - term supply and market sentiment, and the market also trades on this [24]. 4. Conclusion - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. The improvement is due to the better situation in the spot market and strong policy sentiment. The policy can play a role in guiding the supply - demand relationship of the domestic soybean market and promoting the sustainable development of the industry. Later, attention should be paid to the No. 1 Central Document, the auction rhythm, and the selling pressure of farmers after the Spring Festival [1][29].