安如泰山 信守承诺 黑龙江新季大豆玉米调研简析 塔河县 西北线 东北线 松修区 逊克县 国投期货研究院 本次大连商品交易所组织的2025黑龙江新季大豆玉米秋季调研活动分为两条线路，西北线的行程为哈尔滨一 绥化-青冈-海伦--北安-五大连池-嫩江-讷河-大庆，东北线的行程为哈尔滨-佳木斯-宝泉岭-富锦-宝清-虎林- 密山-牡丹江，基本涵盖了黑龙江省大豆玉米各主产区。 笔者参加的是西北线，线路上国产大豆要素相对更多。调研因主要走访了大型国有农场，贸易商，深加工 企业，饲料企业，种粮大户等。本次活动让分析师能深入种植、贸易、加工一线，获取了第一手的产业数据。 直观感受到2025年新粮种植结构变化，更深刻认识到期货工具在稳产保供中的关键作用。在此，先对大连商品 交易所以及各组织单位,被调研单位及个人表示感谢!下面我们分别从国产大豆和玉米的角度进行阐述。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 国产大豆篇 受政策要求和补贴影响,2025产季黑龙江国产大豆种植面积总的来看是增加的,仅有极少地区提及受政策 要求下调种植面积。单产问题上,东西部略有差异,西部地区单产总体保持稳定,其中北安,海伦, ...

南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/09/24 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 10.16% | 31.4% | 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 种植主体，秋季收获新豆售粮 需求较大，但阶段性卖压较大 | 多 | 借助期价反弹，适当 锁定种植利润，做空 | A2511 | 空 | 30% | 4000-4050（持有） | | | 使价格承压 | | 豆一期货 | | | | | | 库存管理 | 集中上市，卖方议价权减弱 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权，提高 | A2511-C-4050 | 卖出 | 30% | 30 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View The price of the main contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures (A2511) was blocked from rebounding and showed a weak trend. In the short term, in the context of the stable - to - declining spot price of soybeans, the price of the A2511 contract of Bean No.1 futures may continue the low - level volatile and weak trend [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 16, 2025, the main contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures (A2511) was blocked from rebounding and fluctuated weakly throughout the day. The opening price was 3935 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3948 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3922 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3924 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.46% from the previous day. The trading volume was 102,878 lots, the open interest was 210,185 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 12,737 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: Different contracts of Bean No.1 futures all showed a downward trend. For example, the A2511 contract closed at 3924 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.46%; the A2601 contract closed at 3930 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.28% [3] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis and Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The basis of Bean No.1 was 136 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen. The total number of registered warehouse receipts of Bean No.1 was 7952 lots, which was the same as the previous trading day [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: The average quotation of domestic soybeans was 4037 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%, and the spot price of soybeans weakened slightly. The inventory of soybeans in major ports was 6.6584 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and the inventory accumulation speed of port soybeans slowed down [8][9] - **Industry News**: The landed duty - paid price of imported soybeans in the near - month was blocked from rebounding, with stable - to - decreasing prices. The domestic soybean crushing profit was stable - to - decreasing, while the decline of the imported soybean crushing profit slowed down and the profit stabilized and rebounded [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Beans - Report cycle: Daily - Date of report: September 4, 2025 - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - Currently, domestic soybean prices fluctuate, recent imported soybean prices trend weakly, port inventory accumulation slows, and enterprise crushing profits weaken again. The price of the main soybean futures contract A2511 oscillates around the 5 - day moving average, and the short - term bearish power on the disk weakens. The price of the A2511 contract may continue to fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average [15]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 4, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean futures oscillated strongly. The opening price was 3951 yuan/ton, the highest was 3982 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3951 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3965 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% from the previous day. The trading volume was 101,673 lots, the open interest was 199,022 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 6675 lots [2]. - **Variety price**: Different contracts have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, the A2509 contract closed at 4056 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 0.76%; the A2511 contract closed at 3965 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% [3]. 4.2 Spot Market - The basis of soybean No. 1 today is 95 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening. The total registered warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 today are 8510 lots, a decrease of 64 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: The average domestic soybean price today is 4039 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. The prices have fluctuated in recent days. The soybean inventory in major ports today is 6.7903 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed [8][10]. - **Industry information**: The recent arrival - at - port duty - paid prices of imported soybeans are generally weak. The recent arrival - at - port duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans is 4583.97 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans is 3993.74 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans is 3852.45 yuan/ton. The enterprise crushing profit has continued to decline from a high level and has weakened again [11].

Group 1 - The core event is the scheduled auction for domestic soybeans organized by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation's e-commerce platform on September 5, 2025 [1] - A total of 45,299 tons of domestic soybeans will be auctioned during this event [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Beans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 12, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 4,067 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,073 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,015 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,034 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day. The trading volume was 141,159 lots, and the open interest was 185,359 lots, with a daily increase of 30,232 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Open Interest (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,087 | -11 | -0.27% | 62,101 | 47,467 | -24,040 | 0.81% | | A2511 | 4,034 | -29 | -0.71% | 141,159 | 185,359 | 30,232 | 1.43% | | A2601 | 4,031 | -24 | -0.59% | 38,907 | 63,644 | 10,304 | 1.09% | | A2603 | 4,031 | -1 | -0.47% | 5,184 | 25,892 | 377 | 0.94% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's basis of Bean No.1 was -14 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen. The total registered warehouse receipts of Bean No.1 today were 12,865 lots, a decrease of 258 lots from the previous trading day [5]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 4,054 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.17%. In recent days, the spot price of soybeans has continued to rise steadily. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8283 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. Currently, the inventory accumulation of port soybeans has slowed down [8][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near - month landed duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed an overall upward trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4,839.38 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 4,024.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3,867.78 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a steady - to - rising trend [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Beans - Report Type: Daily report on soybean No. 1 futures - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - The main continuous contract of DCE soybean No. 1 futures fluctuated, closing with a doji on the daily K - line. The opening price was 4,115 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,134 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4,109 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 65,168 lots, the open interest was 107,330 lots, and the daily change in open interest was -3,096 lots [2]. 2.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Change in Open Interest (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,116 | -10 | -0.24% | 65,168 | 107,330 | -3,096 | 0.61% | | A2511 | 4,102 | -3 | -0.07% | 38,020 | 127,497 | 2,997 | 0.37% | | A2601 | 4,104 | 6 | 0.15% | 13,298 | 42,264 | 2,425 | 0.56% | | A2603 | 4,095 | 6 | 0.15% | 2,072 | 24,245 | 188 | 0.49% | [3] 3. Spot Market - The basis of soybean No. 1 was -96 yuan/ton, continuing to narrow. The total registered warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 were 13,678 lots, a decrease of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Important Events - The average price of domestic soybeans was 4,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous day, with the price stabilizing and declining in recent days. The inventory of soybeans in major ports was 6.7739 million tons, a decrease of 1.99% from the previous day, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [6][8] 4.2 Industry News - The recent arrival - at - destination duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed a stable - to - rising trend. The recent arrival - at - destination duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,783.13 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,962.21 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,814.33 yuan/ton. The overall crushing profit of enterprises has been showing a stable - to - rising trend recently [9]

Market Conditions Futures Market - The main continuous contract of DCE Soybean No. 1 futures fluctuated within a narrow range today, closing at 4117 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 111,267 lots and an open interest of 110,426 lots, a decrease of 10,173 lots [2]. - The closing prices of A2509, A2511, A2601, and A2603 contracts were 4117 yuan/ton, 4101 yuan/ton, 4095 yuan/ton, and 4084 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.07%, and 0.15% respectively [3]. Spot Market - Today's basis of Soybean No. 1 was -97 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to narrow. The total number of registered warehouse receipts for Soybean No. 1 was 13,688 lots, an increase of 286 lots from the previous trading day [5]. Influencing Factors Important Events - The average price of domestic soybeans was 4011 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day, and the spot price of soybeans has fluctuated up and down in recent days. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.9117 million tons, up 0.81% from the previous day, and the port soybean inventory continued to accumulate [7][9]. Industry News - The decline of the near - month landed duty - paid price of imported soybeans has slowed down, and the price has stabilized with a slight increase. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4755.44 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3909.75 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3762.30 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall profit of enterprise crushing has maintained a stable and rising trend [10].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Soybeans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean futures rebounded but was blocked, with prices fluctuating weakly. The opening price was 4,146 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,160 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,119 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day. The trading volume was 102,711 lots, the open interest was 122,210 lots, and the daily increase in positions was -6,447 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Positions (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,131 | -21 | -0.51% | 102,711 | 122,210 | -6,447 | 0.99% | | A2511 | 4,118 | -20 | -0.48% | 39,504 | 120,352 | 678 | 0.84% | | A2601 | 4,106 | -19 | -0.46% | 15,463 | 34,013 | 227 | 0.87% | | A2603 | 4,096 | -20 | -0.49% | 4,469 | 23,402 | -202 | 0.83% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's soybean basis was -111 yuan/ton, and the basis has strengthened recently. Today's total registered soybean warehouse receipts were 13,557 lots, a decrease of 4 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average domestic soybean price was 4,027 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.60%. In recent days, the domestic soybean spot price has been stable with a slight increase. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8393 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%. Currently, the inventory accumulation rate of port soybeans has slowed down [6][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near-month landed duty-paid prices of imported soybeans showed a weak trend. Today, the near-month landed duty-paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,770.72 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,896.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,725.15 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a narrow - range fluctuating trend [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Beans - Report cycle: Daily - Date of report: July 30, 2025 - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 3. Core View - The domestic soybean spot price has been stable with a slight decline recently, and the futures price of soybean No. 1 has shown a low - level volatile and slightly stronger trend. The basis has weakened again, and the registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The port soybean inventory is increasing, and the import soybean arrival - at - destination duty - paid price is generally weak, while the enterprise's crushing profit decline has slowed down [2][3][8][9] 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On July 30, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean No. 1 futures showed a low - level volatile and slightly stronger trend. The opening price was 4,145 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,166 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,133 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,153 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day. The trading volume was 118,912 lots, the open interest was 128,657 lots, and the daily increase in open interest was - 4,692 lots [2] - **Variety price**: Different contracts had different price changes. For example, the A2509 contract closed at 4,153 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.41%; the A2511 contract closed at 4,146 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.00% [3] 4.2 Spot Market - **Basis and registered warehouse receipts**: The basis of soybean No. 1 was - 133 yuan/ton, weakening again. The total number of registered warehouse receipts was 13,561 lots, remaining the same as the previous trading day [4] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: The average price of domestic soybeans was 4,003 yuan/ton, down 0.35% month - on - month, showing a stable - to - decreasing trend in recent days. The inventory of soybeans in major ports was 6.8443 million tons, up 0.67% month - on - month, continuing the inventory - building trend [7][8] - **Industry information**: The arrival - at - destination duty - paid price of imported soybeans was generally weak. The near - month arrival - at - destination duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,814.14 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,932.83 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,723.32 yuan/ton. The decline in enterprise crushing profit has slowed down and slightly recovered [9]