近期东北产区大豆现货持续上涨，39蛋白大豆涨至4300-4500元/吨。基本面上存在贸易商惜售，高蛋白 大豆供应紧张的局面，且面临春节前的传统备货旺季，市场短期价格坚挺，看涨预期较强。另外近期的 豆一拍卖成交率高，且存在大幅溢价。显示短期市场需求端有释放需求。整体看，目前阶段性供弱需强 局面比较显著，豆一价格预计走势坚挺。不过行长期情况看，高价限制消费的局面仍存，节前备货结束 后要考虑价格回调风险。操作上，建议前期低位多单继续持有，但不宜过分追高。 国投安信期货：国产大豆仍然延续上行势头 国产大豆仍然延续上行势头，近期的大豆竞价拍卖表现出来了高溢价和高成交率，国产大豆现货端收购 价格也出现上调，提振了国产大豆市场，1月中旬吉林省贸易粮也将要进行竞价拍卖，持续关注。进口 大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期，供应端的风险仍然偏低。短期持续关注政策端表现以 及内外市场的指引。 1月7日盘中，豆一期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至4396.00元。截止发稿，豆一主力合约 报4380.00元，涨幅2.72%。 豆一期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 首创期货 豆一价格 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-19 豆一供紧需弱价格持稳，花生预计稳中趋弱 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4041.00元/吨，较前日变化-49.00元/吨，幅度-1.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+159，较前日变化+49，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区大豆基层农户手中存粮较少，普遍存在较强的惜售观望情绪，期待价格进一步上涨， 导致市场上实际可流通粮源较为紧张。受此影响，部分大型加工企业收购价格呈现上涨趋势。同时中储粮入市收 购的政策进一步明确了市场价格的底部区间，为大豆价格提供了有力的底部支撑。在上述因素共同作用下，现货 市场行情表现偏强。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较前一日 平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.06元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月17日 | | 息一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆★ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆今日跌势放缓，震荡为主,本周国产大豆购销双向交易显示竞价指卖底价3900元/吨,溢价130元,成 交均价4030元/吨。轮入底价4000元/吨。进口大豆本周也在进行竞价交易，拍卖了51.3万吨，成交均价3852.1 元 ...

在11月28日，中储粮再度发布的两份公告中，收购入库价格均较上旬均有所抬升，除蛋白含量（干基） ≥39%净粮以外，其他蛋白含量的收购价格均环比上调0.025元／斤。公告发布后，市场信心明显提升， 尤其是东北产区，贸易商反馈出货价格在12月均有所上调，因目前农户手中余粮较少，后期收货价格预 计同样提升。 综上，国储大豆收购价格的上调，有利于提振市场情绪，卓创资讯预计12月国产大豆价格震荡上涨，东 北产区40%蛋白净粮价格或至2.18元／斤。 （作者：王文深，卓创资讯分析师） 受11月28日国储收购价格上调的消息提振，东北产区国产大豆价格纷纷上调，预计12月份国产大豆价格 将震荡上涨。 进入11月后，市场重点关注国储大豆拍卖情况，以及国储大豆收购情况。从11月的国储大豆拍卖情况 看，11月份的拍卖成交均价为3902元／吨，较10月份均价下跌0.13%；成交率均值为40.82%，较10月均 值38.27%增加2.55%。从量价走势看，价格走弱带动成交率的增加，但部分需求转向2022/23年度为主的 低价货源。出现这一局面的原因在于：一方面市场有一定刚需存在，另一方面下游认为目前市场价格偏 高，接受度下滑。 从国储大 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The soybean market needs to focus on US soybean exports in the short - term and South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term. For soybean meal, wait for the end of the correction and look for buying opportunities after stabilization. Palm oil's marginal changes may trigger short - covering, and soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see. The corn market should pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The live pig industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices, and the egg market's medium - term supply pressure is expected to ease [2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract is reducing positions and prices are correcting. The new domestic soybean market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Short - term focus on the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance, and also pay attention to US soybean exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. Last week, the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume exceeded 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills rose above 1.1 million tons. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the signing of the new Sino - US economic and trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the correction [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. MPOA expects a 3.24% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20, much lower than the previous forecast. The basis of palm oil in East China has strengthened slightly. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive and strengthened. Palm oil's changes may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the rise of foreign oil prices. Canadian rapeseed crushing demand is high, but the export demand trend is hard to reverse. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Corn - Corn futures rose and then fell today, interrupting the upward trend. The spot price of Northeast corn is firm, while that of North China is weak. The price difference between the two regions has widened. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decline. The industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices. The spot price of live pigs continues to decline. The demand for curing and sausage - making in the South will gradually start, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. It is expected that the pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - Egg futures continue to increase positions, and the far - month contracts have risen significantly. Since July this year, the chick replenishment volume has declined sharply. The number of newly - laid hens will decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled will increase. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg market is expected to ease. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9].

美豆大涨创新高，豆粕库存缓解 2025年11月18日 （2）国内大豆进口回落，油厂大豆到港回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月14日，油厂大豆到港量为182万吨，环比回落；港口大豆库存为992.6万吨，环比回落，仍 在高位。 （3）美豆大涨创近年新高。美农11月供需报告调减美豆单产及总产，期末库存调减；南美产量未调整；全球期末 库存进一步调减。美农报告数据偏多，但盘面先跌后涨。叠加中美贸易协定。美豆有望继续走高。 （4）油厂开机率回升，豆粕库存再落。油厂榨利回落，因巴豆成本高。据钢联数据：截至11月14日，油厂开机率 为57.15%，环比回升；大豆压榨量为207.76万吨，环比回升；油厂大豆库存为747.71万吨，环比回落。豆粕产量为 164.1万吨，环比回升；油厂豆粕库存为99.29万吨，环比微落；豆粕未执行合同为535.07万吨，环比回落。饲料厂 豆粕库存天数为8.23天，环比回升。 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Newly - harvested soybeans show a collision between a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South, with a decline in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After a price increase in October, the price is stagnant, but the state reserve purchase limits the downside. In the long run, the price center of domestic soybeans may shift upward [1][5] - Near - term trading logic involves price stagnation, reduced enthusiasm for mid - and downstream purchases, and sentiment suppression from potential US soybean imports. Long - term, high - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the price of domestic soybeans may break out of the bottom - range oscillation [1][3] - The seasonal reversal in October laid the foundation for the new - season listing cycle of domestic soybeans, and in the long term, the price may break through the bottom - range oscillation and the price center may rise significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The co - existence of a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South has led to a decrease in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After the price increase in October, it is currently stagnant. The state reserve purchase limits the price decline, and there is a lack of factors to drive further price increases [1] - The new changes in the domestic soybean market may change the bottom - range oscillation trend. High - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the consumption progress of medium - and low - protein soybeans will affect the price rhythm [1] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - For the 01 contract, short - term hedging above 4100 should be held, and long - term procurement can wait for a price decline to enter the market [6] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, planting entities can short the A2601 contract above 4100 to lock in profits with a 30% hedging ratio - For procurement management, those worried about price increases can mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [6] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some branches of Sinograin started purchasing new - season domestic soybeans this week, and there was no auction arrangement [7] - **Negative Information**: On November 10, 30,969 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned, suppressing price increase sentiment. The resumption of US soybean imports is becoming clearer, which will compete with medium - and low - protein domestic soybeans [3][8] 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Whether the rhythm of US soybean imports can be further clarified - Whether selling pressure will emerge after the price stagnation - The release of the latest US Department of Agriculture production and supply - demand report on November 14 - The trading results of the domestic soybean auction on November 10 [10][11] Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The weekly price of soybeans first fell and then rose, with a slight increase in the weekly line. The trading volume continued to expand, the open interest decreased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 10,556 lots [11] - The basis weakened slightly as the spot price stagnated and the futures price rose slightly - The 03 and 05 contracts were weak, the 01 contract was strong, and the overall monthly spread change was not significant [16][19] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the profit of 39 - protein clean grain has increased significantly compared to last year. Mid - stream trading enterprises have a stronger willingness to stockpile, but the profit of building storage is uncertain. Down - stream demand is more active, and high - protein soybeans are in short supply. The crushing profit has only small changes, resulting in a neutral purchasing attitude of oil mills [27] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - The supply of high - protein soybeans has decreased, and it will gradually tighten in the next 10 months. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans has increased. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the changes in the purchasing intensity of oil mills [31] 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - In November, the edible consumption of domestic soybeans is picking up, mainly for high - protein soybeans. Down - stream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the price of high - quality soybeans [32] - The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the arrival quantity in December and the soybean meal price to see if the crushing demand can increase as it did last year [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market prices rose significantly due to factors like partial production cuts in some regions and active acquisitions by middle - and downstream players. However, this led to cautious inventory building at the acquisition end, a sell - off due to price stagnation, and a subsequent price correction. The expected resumption of US soybean imports after Sino - US trade negotiations also dampened market sentiment and weakened the upward momentum of futures prices [4]. - On Tuesday, the soybean No.1 futures continued to decline. The main 01 contract dropped 37 yuan/ton to close at 4055 yuan, with slightly lower trading volume and open interest, and a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction and Risk Strategies - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the soybean No.1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.00% and a historical percentile of 37.4% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For planting entities with high demand for selling newly - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the soybean No.1 futures (A2601) when the price is above 4100 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: The new - season domestic soybeans are being purchased by the Hulunbuir warehouse of Sinograin at market prices, and the market is actively delivering. The production cut of high - protein soybeans supports market sentiment and acquisition behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - **Negative Factors**: After the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, China may resume and expand imports of US agricultural products, starting with soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybeans. The short - term supply - demand relationship has changed due to increased selling pressure at the grass - roots level and cautious inventory - building by enterprises. The significant increase in registered warehouse receipts on Tuesday also adds hedging pressure [4][8]. 3.3 Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices and Main Basis**: On November 4, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in different regions and their corresponding basis to the main contract are as follows: 3900 yuan in Harbin (- 135 basis), 3860 yuan in Nenjiang (- 216 basis), 3940 yuan in Jiamusi (- 136 basis), and 3970 yuan in Changchun (- 106 basis) [6]. - **Futures Closing Prices**: From November 3 to 4, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean No.1 futures contracts declined. For example, the 11 - contract dropped from 4076 yuan to 4044 yuan (- 0.79%), and the 01 - contract fell from 4076 yuan to 4055 yuan (- 0.52%) [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Beans for domestic consumption, Bean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Hold**: Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - Uncertainties remain high in the agricultural products market, with significant impact from Sino-US trade relations and policy guidance [3][4][6] - Maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to many uncertain factors, and look for investment opportunities [3] - Long-term, it is advisable to allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans for Domestic Consumption - The main contract of domestic soybeans rose and then fell. The trading volume was 52,003 tons, with a trading rate of 79.76% and an average price of 3,910 yuan/ton, providing market guidance [2] - The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rose and then fell. Pay attention to the impact of short-term profit-taking [2] - Keep an eye on policy guidance in the short term [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybeans rose 0.58% in shock, and domestic bean meal spot prices generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3] - Overall, soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino-US trade relations deteriorate [3] - If Sino-US trade relations do not ease, Dalian soybeans are likely to continue to fluctuate. Wait and see for opportunities [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil-to-meal ratio continued to decline [4] - Palm oil enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Its price depends on production reduction performance. Pay attention to the adjustment risk of the oil-to-meal ratio [4] - In the long term, allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price corrections of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures showed small fluctuations. Rapeseed oil slightly reduced positions, and the market was still cautious [6] - Coastal oil mills have low rapeseed inventories, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil [6] - The main contract price of rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations and consider cross-competitor strategies with rapeseed as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures traded sideways. Northeast corn prices were stable, and Shandong's corn supply increased [7] - Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures' near-term contracts fluctuated, and far-term contracts hit new lows [8] - Spot prices were stable, and second-round fattening sentiment weakened [8] - There is an expectation of improved pork consumption in the fourth quarter, but maintain a short-selling strategy after the price rebounds [8] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded with reduced positions. Spot prices rebounded [9] - Pay attention to short-term risks. There may be a decline in the medium term [9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, while international soybean prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations [1] Domestic Market Analysis - After the National Day holiday, the new season soybeans are being concentrated in the market, leading to an increase in supply [1] - The high cost of imported soybeans is driving smooth transactions for domestic soybeans, resulting in stable prices [1] International Market Analysis - The outlook for US-China trade negotiations remains uncertain, contributing to the fluctuations in the market [1] - Expectations of a bumper crop for US soybeans are strengthening, which is likely to keep international soybean prices in a low-level fluctuation [1]