1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed a mixed trend. The main contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main contract of soybean No. 2 decreased by 2.05%, the main contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [5][7][8][9]. - In the short - term, the soybean market in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation pattern, but there is a possibility of a slight correction for soybeans of general quality. The price of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is closely related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slow and precipitation in some areas is uneven, it is difficult to change the fact of a Brazilian soybean bumper harvest, and the impact on the current market is limited. The long - term price of soybean meal is suppressed by the expected increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May [5][7][8]. - The core drivers of the current edible oil market are concentrated in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about the impact of geopolitics on the energy supply chain and the uncertainty of the US biofuel policy [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 5.34%. By the end of this month, there will be a small peak of soybean auctions with a cumulative release of about 10,000 tons. The downstream enterprises mainly adopt a strategy of purchasing as needed, and the price increase momentum is insufficient. There may be a slight correction for soybeans of general quality [5]. - **Soybean No. 2**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 2.05%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. The slow harvest progress and uneven precipitation in some Brazilian regions have limited impact on the current market [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 3.04%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean meal price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. In the long - term, the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the significant increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May will suppress the forward price of soybean meal [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main 2605 contract increased by 0.7%. The core drivers of the edible oil market are in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about geopolitics and the US biofuel policy. Brazilian soybean crushers urged the government to allow higher - proportion biodiesel blending, which supports the oil price [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Changes**: The main 2605 contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main 2605 contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main 2605 contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [13][19][26]. - **Spread**: As of March 26, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was - 78 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton [31][34]. - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, the net position of the top 20 in soybean No. 1 futures was - 14,475 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 20,942 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures was - 554,182 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 34,913 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures was - 121,795 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 24,690 lots [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Soybean**: As of March 26, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton [54]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 26, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 328 yuan/ton [62]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 26, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 26, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in April was 92 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Argentine soybeans in April was - 36 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans in April was 10 cents/bu, an increase of 20 cents/bu from last week [71]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 26, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4,569.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.8 yuan/ton from last week; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,859.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.55 yuan/ton from last week; the difference in arrival cost between the two was 709.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.25 yuan/ton from last week [75]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the US, about 42% of the soybean - producing areas were in a drought state, and the drought situation was slightly alleviated compared with last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the precipitation pattern will change significantly in the next week, with a drying trend in the north, southeast, and central regions, and local rainfall in the south at the beginning of next week, which is expected to have no impact on the harvest progress [78][82]. - **Upstream Supply**: In 2025/26, the expected output of US soybeans was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 951.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last month. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans was 18,000 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged from last month. The expected output of Argentine soybeans was 4,800 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from last month; the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged from last month [86][90][94]. - **Domestic Industry**: In the 12th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from last week, a decrease of 6.75%, and an increase of 2.5977 million tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 103.17%. The soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from last week, an increase of 6.89%, and a decrease of 78,700 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 10.50%. The national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0537 million tons, a decrease of 24,700 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.29%, and an increase of 39,900 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.94%. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week, and the actual startup rate was 54.81% [108][111][114][119]. - **Substitute Products**: As of March 26, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil widened, while the spot and futures spreads of rapeseed - soybean oil narrowed. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,693.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139.47 yuan/ton from last week; the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,294 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.24, an increase of 0.03 from last week. The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.93, an increase of 0.1 from last week [132][135][139][142]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of March 20, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 945,100 tons, an increase of 117,000 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 160,700 tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons from last week [147]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Livestock and Poultry Prices**: As of March 26, the price of live pigs (externally - three - way) in Beijing was 9.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 21.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6 yuan/kg from last week [151]. - **Breeding Profits**: As of March 18, the pig - breeding profit was - 415.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 44.96 yuan/head from last week; as of March 20, the poultry - breeding profit was - 0.32 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from last week [156]. - **Feed Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [159]. - **Livestock Inventory**: In February, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57% [164]. 3.6 Options Market - There is only a figure of the historical volatility of at - the - money options of the soybean meal contract in the report, but no specific data analysis is provided [165].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contracts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all declined. The decline of the main soybean contract was 3.28%, the main soybean meal contract was 3.16%, and the main soybean oil contract was 0.71%. [5][7][8] - For soybeans, as the weather warms up, storage becomes difficult, but farmers still hold on to their stocks. Traders are less willing to buy due to lack of confidence in the market. Downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories and are cautious in purchasing. [5] - For soybean meal and soybeans, although the improvement of the Argentine soybean crop rating and the recovery of Brazilian exports suppress prices, geopolitical crises support prices. The domestic spot market has improved, and the market expects a possible tightening of imported soybean supplies in March - April. [6][7] - For soybean oil, the domestic supply - demand pattern is still loose. Price increases are mainly driven by external costs, but high prices suppress terminal demand. [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Soybeans**: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybeans fell by 3.28%. As the weather warms up, storage becomes difficult, and geopolitical uncertainties add pressure. Traders are less active in purchasing, and downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories and are cautious in purchasing. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybean meal fell by 3.16%. Geopolitical factors and South American weather affect prices. The domestic spot market has improved, and there is a short - term release of terminal procurement demand. [7] - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybean oil fell by 0.71%. There are speculations about the US bio - fuel policy. The domestic supply - demand pattern is loose, and high prices suppress terminal demand. [8] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Changes**: The main 2605 contracts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all declined this week, with declines of 3.28%, 3.16%, and 0.71% respectively. [12][19][25] - **Spread**: As of March 19, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 33 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 86 yuan/ton. [31][34] - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 19, the net position of the top 20 in soybean futures was - 19,500 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean contract were 22,437 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures was - 558,979 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean meal contract were 36,728 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures was - 136,063 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean oil contract were 25,342 lots. [39][44][50] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Soybeans**: As of March 19, the spot price of third - grade domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main soybean contract was - 396 yuan/ton. [54] - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 19, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 318 yuan/ton. [60] - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 19, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main soybean oil contract was 284 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week. [66] - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 19, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in April was 97 cents/bushel, a decrease of 18 cents/bushel from last week; the FOB premium of Argentine soybeans in April was - 31 cents/bushel, a decrease of 51 cents/bushel from last week; the FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans in April was - 10 cents/bushel, an increase of 19 cents/bushel from last week. [70] - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 19, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4,516.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 896.05 yuan/ton from last week; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,835.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.9 yuan/ton from last week; the difference in arrival cost between the two was 681.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 823.15 yuan/ton from last week. [75] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the United States, the drought situation in soybean - producing areas has slightly eased compared with last week but is worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, there are sporadic showers in some areas, and the temperature in some areas is higher than normal. [78][82] - **Upstream Supply**: In 2025/26, the expected output of US soybeans is 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory is 951.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected output of Brazilian soybeans is 18,000 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory is 3,791 million tons, unchanged from last month; the expected output of Argentine soybeans is 4,800 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory is 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged from last month. [86][90][94] - **Domestic Situation**: In the 11th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 4.20% from last week and an increase of 73.17% from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 17.51% from last week and a decrease of 8.16% from the same period last year; the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0834 million tons, a decrease of 0.97% from last week and an increase of 2.12% from the same period last year. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 11th week was 1.9694 million tons, an increase of 136,400 tons from the previous week, and the actual startup rate was 54.23%. In February 2026, the soybean import volume was 5.976 million tons, a decrease of 595,000 tons from January. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons, an increase of 36.17% from last month and 37.61% from the same period last year. As of March 19, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 49.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.9 yuan/ton from last week, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the March shipping schedule was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last week. [108][111][114][119][122][125][128] - **Substitute Situation**: As of March 19, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil have narrowed, while the spot and futures spreads of rapeseed - soybean oil have widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,693.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139.47 yuan/ton from last week; the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,294 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.24, an increase of 0.03 from last week. The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.83, unchanged from last week. [133][136][140][143] - **Transaction Situation**: As of March 13, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 828,100 tons, an increase of 391,000 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 234,200 tons, an increase of 159,300 tons from last week. [148] - **Downstream Situation**: As of March 19, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week; the price of piglets was 23.34 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of March 20, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.32 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from last week. As of December 2025, the monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In February, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. [152][157][160][165] 3.5 Options Market - No specific analysis content is provided, only a chart of the historical volatility of at - the - money options of the soybean meal contract is shown. [166]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [5][7][8]. - The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a slight upward trend in the short - term, with high - protein soybeans remaining high and firm [5]. - The South American soybean production outlook is a key variable in the global market. If the Brazilian soybean production reduction expands, it may support the US soybean price [6][7]. - The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be favorable, which has led to an optimistic market expectation for future bio - fuel demand [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean (Bean 1)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.69% this week. After the festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast is expected to rise slightly, with high - protein soybeans having limited upward momentum [5]. - **Imported Soybeans (Bean 2)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.55% this week. The South American production outlook is crucial. Some institutions have lowered their Brazilian production estimates, and the US soybean ending stocks forecast remains unchanged [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 7.31% this week. The South American production outlook is a key factor. Domestic market concerns about supply in late March to early April have led to increased trading volume, and downstream feed enterprises' inventories are relatively sufficient in the short - term [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 3.3% this week. The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be introduced, and the market is optimistic. After the Spring Festival, domestic oil prices have risen, but downstream purchases are cautious [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [12][19][25]. - **Spread**: As of March 12, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 4 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil was 92 yuan/ton [31][34]. - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 12, the net positions of the top 20 in soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures were - 26,511 lots, - 490,684 lots, and - 126,592 lots respectively. The warehouse receipts of the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 24,618 lots, 36,982 lots, and 25,714 lots respectively [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Soybean**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 3 domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was - 449 yuan/ton [54]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 12, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 226 yuan/ton [60]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 268 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 12, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, unchanged from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 20 cents/bushel, down 16 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 29 cents/bushel, down 19 cents/bushel from last week [70]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 12, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,412.7 yuan/ton, up 203.54 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,908.4 yuan/ton, up 188.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the cost difference was 1,504.66 yuan/ton, up 14.7 yuan/ton from last week [74]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the US, about 47% (+3) of the soybean - producing areas were in drought last week, with a slight improvement compared to last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress as of March 7 was 50.6% [77][95]. - **Supply - Side**: In 2025/26, the expected US soybean production was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory was 951.6 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected Brazilian soybean production was 18,000 million tons, unchanged, and the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged; the expected Argentine soybean production was 4,800 million tons, down 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged [84][88][92]. - **Domestic Situation**: In the 10th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, down 4.03% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, up 8.46% from last week; the soybean oil inventory was 1.094 million tons, down 0.26% from last week. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 10th week was 1.833 million tons, and the actual operating rate was 50.47%. China's soybean imports in January and February 2026 were 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons respectively. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons [106][109][112][117][120][123]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of March 12, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,220 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, while the rapeseed - soybean spreads widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,702.63 yuan/ton, up 136.31 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 577 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal/rapeseed meal ratio was 1.21, up 0.03 from last week. The soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.83, down 0.11 from last week [131][134][138][141]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 437,100 tons, up 264,500 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 74,900 tons, down 4,950 tons from last week [146]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Prices**: As of March 12, the price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 24.6 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from last week [150]. - **Profits**: As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, down 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.09 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird from last week [155]. - **Demand**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, up 1.03% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, down 0.01% month - on - month and 0.48% year - on - year; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, up 1.79% month - on - month and 5.57% year - on - year [158][163].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Soybean No. 1, the market is expected to see price increases in the short - term due to tight supply of high - quality soybeans and improved spot market trading, but attention should be paid to downstream procurement rhythm and external market trends [5]. - For Soybean No. 2, the price increase is mainly due to the slow harvest progress in South America and the drought in some regions, which has led to a decrease in the estimated Brazilian soybean production and an increase in US soybean prices, thus boosting the domestic futures market [6]. - For soybean meal, although the domestic futures market is boosted by the situation in South America, the domestic supply pressure is still high, and the downstream buying enthusiasm is low, so the spot price is stable and weak [7]. - For soybean oil, factors such as the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the expected improvement in bio - fuel demand, and the situation in South American soybean production have led to an increase in US soybean prices, which in turn has boosted the domestic futures market. The US bio - fuel policy is also expected to increase the demand for soybean oil [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: The main 2605 contract fell 1% this week. With the end of the remaining grain at the grass - roots level, the supply of high - quality soybeans is tight. The 40 - protein soybeans are popular, while the higher - protein soybeans have a slower sales speed. After the Lantern Festival, logistics is expected to improve, and short - term prices may rise [5]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.88% this week. The slow harvest in South America and the drought in some regions have led to a decrease in the estimated Brazilian soybean production, and the rising US soybean prices have boosted the domestic futures market [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.89% this week. The situation in South America has boosted the domestic futures market, but the domestic supply pressure remains high, and the downstream buying enthusiasm is low [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.26% this week. The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the expected improvement in bio - fuel demand, and the situation in South American soybean production have led to an increase in US soybean prices, which has boosted the domestic futures market. The US bio - fuel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil [8]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Soybean No. 1**: The main 2605 contract fell 1% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 13,800 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 25,018 lots [14][39]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.89% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 543,263 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 38,829 lots. The 05 - 09 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [19][31][46]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 2.26% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 114,381 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 26,255 lots. The 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [26][34][52]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Soybean No. 1**: As of March 5, the spot price of third - grade domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of the main contract was - 552 yuan/ton [56]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 5, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the main contract was 197 yuan/ton [64]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 5, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the main contract was 280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week [70]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 5, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, a decrease of 15 cents/bushel from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 36 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 10 cents/bushel, a decrease of 30 cents/bushel from last week [74]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 5, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,209.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.01 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,719.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from last week. The cost difference between them was 1,489.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31 yuan/ton from last week [78]. 3.4 Weather Situation - **North America**: Last week, about 44% (+6) of the soybean - producing areas in the US were in a drought state. Compared with last week, the area with severe drought or above (D2 +) was 20%, and the D3 + area remained unchanged. Compared with the same period last year, the D1 + area decreased by 2%, the D2 + area increased by 16%, and the D3 + area increased by 6% [81]. - **Brazil**: The northern part of Brazil has continuous rainfall, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The southern part is in the process of corn harvesting and seedling planting, but due to insufficient soil moisture, continuous rainfall is needed. Most of the southern regions were dry this week, but rainfall is expected to increase this weekend and spread to central Brazil [85]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - **Supply - Side in the US**: As of February 2026, the expected production of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 951.7 million tons, unchanged from last month [89]. - **Supply - Side in Brazil**: As of February 2026, the expected production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 18,000 million tons, an increase of 200 million tons from last month; the ending inventory was 3,791 million tons, an increase of 100 million tons from last month [93]. - **Supply - Side in Argentina**: As of February 2026, the expected production of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 4,850 million tons, unchanged from last month; the ending inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, an increase of 7.9 million tons from last month [97]. - **Planting and Harvesting Progress**: As of February 28, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 41.7%, an increase of 9.8% from last week. As of February 25, 2026, the soybean planting progress in Argentina reached 100%, unchanged from last week [100]. - **Export Situation**: US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 45% from the previous week and 24% from the same period last year. As of February 26, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 383,500 tons, lower than the previous week. The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in February 2026 was 1,069 million tons, an increase of 9.9% from the same period last year [105][108]. 3.6 Industry Situation - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Inventory**: In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.9669 million tons, an increase of 771,500 tons (14.85%) from last week and an increase of 1.8129 million tons (43.64%) from the same period last year [111]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Meal Inventory**: In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 701,200 tons, a decrease of 141,300 tons (16.77%) from last week and an increase of 71,900 tons (11.43%) from the same period last year [114]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0968 million tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons (3.62%) from last week and an increase of 7,100 tons (0.65%) from the same period last year [117]. - **Domestic Situation - Oil Mill Operating Rate**: In the 9th week of 2026 (from February 21 to February 27), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 588,600 tons, an increase of 551,400 tons from the previous week and 200,100 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume. The actual operating rate was 16.19% [122]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Import**: In December 2025, the total import volume of soybeans was 8.044 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 103,000 tons from the same period last year [123]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Arrival**: The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons, an increase of 1.873 million tons (36.17%) from the previous month and an increase of 1.927 million tons (37.61%) from the same period last year [128]. - **Domestic Situation - Soybean Profit**: As of March 5, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 5.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton from last week. The gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the March shipping schedule was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last week [131]. - **Substitute Situation - Palm Oil and Rapeseed Oil Prices**: As of March 5, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from last week [136]. - **Substitute Situation - Price Spreads**: This week, the spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed, the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened, the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil remained unchanged, the futures price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and palm oil narrowed, and the futures price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened [139]. - **Substitute Situation - Rapeseed Meal Price and Spread**: As of March 5, the average price of rapeseed meal was 2,566.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.95 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.18, a decrease of 0.03 from last week [142]. - **Substitute Situation - Oil - Meal Ratio**: As of March 5, 2025, the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.94, an increase of 0.05 from last week [145]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 172,600 tons, an increase of 172,600 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 79,850 tons, an increase of 79,850 tons from last week [150]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - **Downstream Situation - Pig and Piglet Prices**: As of March 5, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 10.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 25.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week [153]. - **Downstream Situation - Breeding Profits**: As of February 11, the pig - breeding profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - breeding profit was - 0.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/head from last week [158]. - **Demand - Side - Feed Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [161]. - **Demand - Side - Sow and Pig Inventory**: In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57% [166].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean sales slow down, the price remains stable, and there is still a certain amount of surplus grain before the Spring Festival; the domestic imported soybeans decline, the port inventory drops, the auction is postponed; the oil - mill operating rate rebounds, the soybean meal inventory decreases, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean futures will fluctuate strongly, while soybean meal futures will remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main soybean contract 2605 quickly soared to 4440 and then quickly fell back, hitting a new high in nearly a year. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4400 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main soybean meal contract 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly and steadily, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3070 yuan/ton. The basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - The sales of domestic soybeans slowed down. As of January 23, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans remained at 40% month - on - month; that of Anhui soybeans dropped to 48%, a 2% month - on - month decrease; that of Henan soybeans dropped to 52%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; and that of Shandong soybeans dropped to 53%, a 3% month - on - month decrease. Due to the differentiation of grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continued. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, enterprise procurement slowed down [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - Imported soybeans continued to decline, and the port soybean inventory continued to drop. In December 2025, China imported 804300 tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decline and a 1.28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imported soybeans in 2025 were 111818500 tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. There was no latest imported soybean auction announcement. The soybeans purchased from the US by China might enter the reserve rotation. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continued to decline. As of January 23, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 174200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the port soybean inventory was 721500 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans fluctuated at a low level. The USDA January supply - demand report was bearish. The US soybean production was slightly increased, exports were slightly reduced, but the ending stocks were significantly increased. The Brazilian soybean production was increased, and the global ending stocks were increased. Attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil - mill and Soybean Meal Situation - The operating rate of oil mills rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continued to drop. As of January 23, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.83%, a month - on - month rebound; the soybean crushing volume was 2102100 tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6589900 tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal output was 1661000 tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 898600 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4061600 tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 10.21 days, a continuous month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - The feed demand was strong. In terms of livestock farming, the pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, an increase in profit; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head, an increase in profit. The reduction of production capacity achieved certain results. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs in December both decreased. From the situation of large - scale farms, the inventory of breeding sows continued to decline month - on - month in December, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in nearly a year. However, the profit might drag down the pace of future production capacity reduction. In terms of poultry farming, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding turned from loss to profit; the culling of old chickens increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. The feed demand was still strong, and feed enterprises actively stocked up [6].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: January 13, 2026 [1] - **Report Cycle**: Daily - **Research Variety**: Soybean Meal - **Researcher**: Chen Bo (Qualification No.: F03138462; Investment Consultation Certificate No.: Z0022938) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to the bearish USDA report and high inventory of imported soybeans, while the domestic soybean meal inventory remains high and the overall consumption has not improved significantly. Technically, the price has fallen below the lower edge of the recent trading range, indicating a clear bearish pattern. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the impact of subsequent imported soybean auctions and South American weather changes on market sentiment. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 13, 2026, the opening price of the DCE soybean meal main contract (M.DCE) was 2,799 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decline from the previous trading day. The highest price was 2,805 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2,756 yuan/ton, the daily trading volume was 1,180,639 lots, and the open interest was 2,258,105 lots. [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 13, 2026, the spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 2,761 yuan/ton, with a basis of 439 yuan/ton. The spot market was strong while the futures market was weak. [5] 3.3影响因素 3.3.1产业资讯 - International market: The USDA January supply and demand report was bearish. The US soybean production reached 4.262 billion bushels, higher than the December estimate, and the Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 was raised to 178 million tons. The CBOT soybean March contract closed down at 1,050 cents/bushel. [6] - Supply and demand fundamentals: In the first week of 2026, the imported soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons, an increase of 558,100 tons or 8.53% from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons, an increase of 2,600 tons or 0.22% from the previous week, both at relatively high levels, indicating supply pressure. [6] - Market transactions: On January 12, the total soybean meal transactions of major oil mills in China were 1.1593 million tons, an increase of 675,100 tons from the previous trading day, with the forward basis transactions accounting for 93%, concentrated in May - July 2026. [6] - Cost side: On January 13, the arrival cost of imported soybeans was 3,848.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43.58 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous workday, weakening the cost support. [6] 3.3.2技术分析 - In the past five trading days, the soybean meal main contract showed a downward - oscillating trend. From January 7 to January 13, the price fluctuated in the range of 2,756 - 2,827 yuan/ton, showing an "M" - shaped pattern overall. The price rose 1.74% on January 7, then fell for two consecutive days, rebounded slightly by 0.14% on January 12, and fell again by 0.90% on January 13, indicating that the bearish force was dominant. [6] 3.4行情展望 - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to imported soybean auctions and South American weather changes. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Soybean oil [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [1][2][5][6] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The current market features "tight supply and cautious demand". Spot prices are supported by tight circulation of grass - root grain sources. Although the auction of imported soybeans increases long - term supply, the short - term impact is limited. With the oil mills' operating rate at a medium level and slow downstream demand, the short - term soybean oil price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile pattern [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - On January 13, 2026, the opening price of the DCE soybean oil main contract (Y.DCE) was 8008 yuan/ton, the closing price was 7986 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8038 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 7976 yuan/ton. It rose 0.18% on the day, with a trading volume of 27,977 lots, a trading value of 22.411 billion yuan, and an open interest of 709,684 lots [2] 4.2 Spot Market - On January 13, the spot price of Wuhan Grade 4 soybean oil was 8610 yuan/ton, and that of Huangpu Grade 4 soybean oil was 8550 yuan/ton. The basis of all soybean oil contracts was positive [5] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information** - Domestic soybean market: The circulation of grass - root grain sources is tight, and grain - holding entities are determined to hold up prices. The price of high - quality high - protein sources is firm, showing a "strong - price and weak - volume" situation. The mainstream reference price in the domestic soybean spot market today is 4355 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day [6] - Pressing situation: Today, the operating rate of oil mills is about 53.71%. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 1.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years [6] - Imported soybean cost: On January 13, the arrival cost of imported soybeans was 3848.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43.58 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous working day. Among them, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4106.11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.05 yuan/ton; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3463.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.39 yuan/ton [6] - US soybean exports: As of the week ending January 8, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, a 55% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase year - on - year. The total export inspection volume since the 2025/26 season has reached 17,934,546 tons, a 42.8% decrease year - on - year [6] - **Technical Analysis** - In the past five trading days, soybean oil futures have shown a volatile consolidation trend. The closing prices from January 7 to 13 were 7958 yuan, 7944 yuan, 7994 yuan, 7994 yuan, and 7986 yuan respectively, with prices fluctuating in the range of 7940 - 8000 yuan [6] 4.4 Market Outlook - The short - term soybean oil price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile pattern due to tight supply, cautious demand, and the medium - level operating rate of oil mills [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in soybean prices is attributed to a combination of supply-side dynamics and market sentiment, rather than a genuine supply shortage. The domestic soybean supply remains stable, with a projected production of approximately 20.9 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 1.2% year-on-year increase [3][12][13]. Supply Dynamics - The current soybean market is characterized by "loose total supply but tight circulation," as new beans are quickly released from grassroots selling pressure, leading to a transfer of ownership towards trade channels [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that domestic soybean production is not in a state of shortage, supporting the notion that the price increase is more about market dynamics than actual supply constraints [3][12]. - The recent adjustments in state reserve purchasing standards have been interpreted as a "policy bottom moving up," which has further elevated price levels [5][15]. Market Behavior - The behavior of grain holders, including farmers and trading companies, reflects a tendency to hold onto stocks due to expectations of policy support and concerns over tight domestic import supplies in the first quarter [4][14]. - The market has seen a significant transfer of soybean stocks from farmers to trade channels, with trade entities actively building inventories in response to concerns over potential disruptions in U.S. soybean imports [5][14]. - The recent auction of old soybeans has also boosted market sentiment, with a high transaction rate and premium prices indicating strong demand from traders [6][15]. Future Outlook - Two potential scenarios for the soybean market are identified: - Scenario A: Continued state reserve purchases or price adjustments could maintain a strong price center [7][16]. - Scenario B: A weakening of reserve purchasing efforts could lead to price corrections, particularly for lower-protein soybeans, while higher-protein soybeans may remain more resilient due to some rigid demand [7][16]. - The overall market is expected to remain supported by policy measures and pre-holiday stocking demands, but caution is advised regarding potential price volatility stemming from changes in import schedules and reserve release strategies [7][16].

Group 1 - The main contract for soybean futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 4396.00 yuan, with a current price of 4380.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.72% [1] - The market outlook for soybean prices is expected to remain strong due to a tight supply of high-protein soybeans and increased demand ahead of the traditional pre-Spring Festival stocking season [1] - The recent auction of soybeans showed high transaction rates and significant premiums, indicating strong short-term market demand [1] Group 2 - Domestic soybean prices continue to rise, supported by high premiums and transaction rates in recent auctions, with an increase in purchase prices for domestic soybeans [2] - The upcoming auction of trade grain in Jilin Province in mid-January is anticipated to further influence the domestic soybean market [2] - The supply risk for imported soybeans from South America remains low, with expectations of a bumper crop for the new season [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the efforts of the Qidong Customs in enhancing the quality and efficiency of foreign trade in Qidong City, focusing on the development of the marine engineering shipbuilding industry and the Lusi starting port area [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - From January to November, Qidong City's total import and export value reached 28.9 billion yuan, with exports amounting to 24.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [1] - The Lusi Port saw a significant increase in general cargo throughput, reaching 5.036 million billing tons, which represents a year-on-year growth of 93.9% [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Logistics Development - The Qidong Customs supports the orderly opening of ports and the temporary operation of logistics terminals, enhancing the logistics service capabilities of the Lusi Port area [2] - The establishment of a public bonded warehouse by Jiangsu China Foreign Trade Transportation Group at Lusi Port has improved the logistics service capacity [2] Group 3: Customs Innovation and Efficiency - The implementation of innovative customs clearance measures, such as "pre-inspection," "third-party mediation," and "subsequent sampling," has facilitated a seamless customs experience for import and export goods, effectively reducing operational costs for enterprises [3] - The launch of the "import coal smart supervision" platform and the "import LNG smart supervision" project has streamlined the customs inspection and release processes [3] Group 4: Enterprise Support and Policy Implementation - Qidong Customs has initiated programs to address the challenges faced by enterprises, including on-site policy delivery and direct engagement with businesses to understand their needs [4] - The customs authority has conducted policy seminars benefiting over 200 foreign trade enterprises in the region, and has implemented preferential measures for five AEO-certified enterprises [4] - As of November, there were 1,658 registered customs enterprises in Qidong, with 154 new registrations this year, indicating a positive trend in enterprise growth [4]