1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a continuous decline, with cost support weakening, supply increasing, demand remaining weak, high social inventory, and expected short - term price decline. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. - The polysilicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices falling in both the futures and spot markets. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing as it enters the flat - water period, and the overall in - production cost of the industry will decline after the shutdown of high - cost enterprises in the north. Cost support for silicon prices is insufficient. - In May, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 2,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 416 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 2,188 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 103 yuan/ton. [2][36] 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the number of open furnaces increased significantly, mainly from restarted enterprises in Xinjiang. As of now, the restart in Xinjiang has temporarily ended, and there are no expected new restarts in the short term. In Sichuan, enterprises are gradually increasing furnace openings with the decline of electricity prices in the wet season. Yunnan still has restart plans after maintenance, expected to restart around mid - to - late June. - In the week of May 29, the silicon enterprise's furnace - opening rate increased slightly, with a net increase of 20 furnaces. [2][37] 3.1.3 Demand - Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are low, and most transactions are at low prices. Polysilicon plants maintain a large - scale production reduction, the organic silicon industry reduces production, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy has weakened, with rigid procurement of industrial silicon. [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is significant short - term inventory reduction pressure. As of May 29, the industrial silicon social inventory (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 58.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons; the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan totaled 23.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 million tons. [2][119] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - With strong restart expectations in the southwest production area and an increase in furnace openings of some silicon enterprises in the north, the supply shows an obvious increasing trend, while the demand maintains rigid procurement. Futures and spot prices are falling in tandem, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the short term. The futures price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. [2] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - In May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,900 tons. As of May 29, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises will increase and decrease simultaneously, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [67] 3.2.2 Demand - Demand is weak. Domestically, orders have shrunk significantly, while overseas orders are relatively stable. Long - term component orders have decreased significantly, and the price of photovoltaic components has continued to decline. The demand for battery chips from the component side has decreased, and it is expected that the production scheduling of battery chips will be tight in June. Silicon wafer prices have declined across all sizes, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction. [2] 3.2.3 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the futures and spot prices are falling in tandem. The downstream purchasing willingness remains low, and there is no expectation of bottom - fishing for inventory. Although the number of warehouse receipts has not increased significantly, the weak fundamentals have not led to the trading of squeeze - out risks in the futures price. In the short term, warehouse receipts have alleviated the price factor, and the strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Production - In May, the operating rate of China's DMC was 62.37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.79 percentage points; the DMC output was 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The industry mainly maintains production with reduced loads, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased. [87] 3.3.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the price of organic silicon has fallen to a low level, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and market confidence has been somewhat restored. [94] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Production - In the week of May 29, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. [104] 3.4.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of ADC12 was 20,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%; the average price of A356 was 20,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. [107]