工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 点评 25 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8675 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.06%， 持仓增仓 9744 手至 28.9 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9478 元/吨，较 上一交易日上调 71 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回涨至 8800 元/吨， 现货升水收至 55 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 51580 元/ 吨，日内涨幅 0.73%，持仓减仓 5596 手至 13.9 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投 硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 44500 元/吨，现 货贴水扩至 7060 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤价格提升，硅厂向贸易商出 货量高而下游购货量偏少，上下空间收窄、延续调整节奏。反内卷完 成对多晶硅价格的基本把控，西南放产下社库和仓单持续增压，产业 出清并未实际推进，多晶硅量价分离格局持续扩大。近期市场高度聚 焦于六部委联合召开的光伏产业会，或由直接控产向产能技术指标挂 钩不断过度。反内卷会议相关动态对短期盘面存在绝对驱动，或引导 预期修正下升水回调幅度。建议谨慎高位布空，工信部 9 月底前 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 25 日 工业硅：市场情绪提振 多晶硅：区间震荡，以逢低做多为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 光伏头条获悉，8 月 22 日，华电集团 2025-2026 年光伏组件集中采购开标。该项目分为两个标段，其 中标段一采购 N 型 TOPCon 组件，规模为 18GW，标段二采购 N 型 TOPCon、BC、HJT 组件，规模为 2GW。根 据开标结果，标段一共有 49 家企业参与投标，投标报价 0.646~0.751 元/W，均价 0.71 元/W；标段二共 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,745 620,638 | 110 -38,437 | -60 77,521 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar's financial performance in the 2025 mid-year report shows significant declines in revenue and net profit, indicating challenges in the competitive solar market [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 23.905 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.01% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.58 billion yuan, reflecting a 195.13% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The gross margin fell to -3.53%, down 190.2% year-on-year, while the net margin decreased to -10.96%, a drop of 238.7% [1]. - Operating expenses totaled 1.186 billion yuan, accounting for 4.96% of revenue, a slight increase of 0.61% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share were -0.79 yuan, a decrease of 192.59% from the previous year [1]. Cash Flow and Debt Analysis - Cash flow from operating activities showed a significant increase of 342.44%, attributed to reduced procurement costs and lower employee cash payments [3][4]. - The company experienced a 3.93% increase in cash and cash equivalents due to new borrowings, while short-term borrowings decreased by 37.67% due to repayments [3][4]. - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents was down 34.18%, primarily due to reduced borrowings and increased repayment obligations [4]. Investment and Market Position - The company’s historical return on invested capital (ROIC) has been relatively low, with a median of 9.54% over the past decade, indicating average investment returns [4]. - The company has faced significant market competition, leading to a decline in solar product prices, which has adversely affected revenue [3][4]. - Analysts project a continued negative performance for 2025, with expected losses of 3.425 billion yuan and an average earnings per share of -1.03 yuan [5]. Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - Several funds have increased their holdings in JinkoSolar, including Guangfa High-end Manufacturing Stock A and HSBC Jintrust Low Carbon Pioneer Stock A, indicating some investor confidence despite the poor financial results [6].

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy reported a narrowing loss in its 2025 interim financial results, with total revenue declining and net profit improving year-on-year despite ongoing challenges in the solar industry [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 32.813 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.83% compared to 38.529 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.569 billion yuan, an improvement of 50.88% from -5.231 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 19.161 billion yuan, down 8.12% year-on-year, while net profit was -1.133 billion yuan, up 60.66% [1] - Gross margin was -0.82%, a decrease of 110.66% year-on-year, while net margin was -7.92%, an increase of 41.83% [1] Cost and Expenses - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 1.773 billion yuan, accounting for 5.4% of revenue, a decrease of 24.65% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow per share improved by 92.45% to -0.06 yuan, while earnings per share increased by 50.72% to -0.34 yuan [1] Asset and Liability Changes - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 9.51% to 49.303 billion yuan, while accounts receivable increased by 16.41% to 11.908 billion yuan [1] - Interest-bearing debt rose by 18.77% to 24.735 billion yuan [1] Investment and Market Position - The company has faced significant challenges, with a historical median ROIC of 15.67% over the past decade, and a particularly poor ROIC of -9.7% in 2024 [4][5] - Analysts expect a net profit of -2.138 billion yuan for 2025, with an average earnings per share estimate of -0.28 yuan [5] Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Longi Green Energy is the Huatai-PB CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, with a current scale of 9.984 billion yuan and a recent net value increase of 2.42% [6]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: August 20, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,868 lots, a decrease of 6,737 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,125 lots, an increase of 5,455 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the implementation details of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon sector, in the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, while some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. If the price later falls below 8,000 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions [2]

Company - TCL Zhonghuan's latest stock price is 8.29 yuan, up 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of 8.41 yuan and a low of 8.23 yuan, and a trading volume of 646 million yuan [1] - The company specializes in the research and production of photovoltaic monocrystalline silicon materials and components, covering products such as solar silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, playing a crucial role in the renewable energy generation sector [1] Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will hold a symposium for photovoltaic companies on August 19, focusing on industry standardization [1] - Recent fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry chain have been notable, with a rebound in polysilicon futures prices [1] - China Huadian Group is about to open bidding for a large-scale project involving 20GW of component procurement, drawing market attention to component price trends [1] - On the same day, there was a net outflow of 37.54 million yuan in main funds, with a cumulative net outflow of 254 million yuan over the past five days [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, tracking their fundamentals, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2]. - On August 11, a government - business symposium on the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry was held in Baotou, with enterprises expressing confidence in the industry and their development in the area [2][4]. - The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2511 closing price was 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 520,504 lots, down 141,692 lots from T - 1, and the open interest was 278,860 lots, up 6,917 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2511 closing price was 51,800 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan from T - 1, the trading volume was 481,809 lots, down 111,013 lots from T - 1, and the open interest was 136,055 lots, down 3,684 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +600 yuan/ton, up from 95 yuan/ton at T - 1. The polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - injection) was - 4,800 yuan/ton, down from 1,185 yuan/ton at T - 1 [2]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The price of polysilicon N - type re - injection material was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,461 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,199 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.7 tons, with an increase of 0.7 tons compared to T - 5. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 23.3 tons, with an increase of 0.4 tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Baotou government held a symposium with 10 crystalline silicon photovoltaic enterprises. Enterprises expressed confidence in the industry and their development in Baotou and were willing to deepen cooperation [2][4]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral market view [4]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Dongfang Risen is 10.39 yuan, an increase of 1.17% compared to the previous trading day, with a highest intraday price of 10.44 yuan and a lowest of 10.21 yuan, and a trading volume of 259 million yuan [1] - Dongfang Risen operates in the photovoltaic equipment industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of solar cells, modules, and photovoltaic power stations, and is a significant player in China's photovoltaic sector [1] - The company participated in a silicon photovoltaic industry forum in Baotou, where representatives from Dongfang Risen and nine other photovoltaic companies discussed industry development and received support policy commitments from local leaders to promote high-quality growth in the silicon photovoltaic industry [1] Group 2 - Fund flow data indicates that Dongfang Risen experienced a net outflow of 12.45 million yuan from main funds on the day, with a cumulative net outflow of 22.57 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Youli Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on August 8, 2023, with an issue price of 23.99 yuan per share and a total of 11.203 million shares issued [1] - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of core components for photovoltaic (PV) brackets, which are essential for supporting PV modules in solar power systems [3][4] Company Overview - Youli Intelligent has been deeply engaged in the photovoltaic bracket sector since its establishment, with main products including torque tubes (TTU), bearing components (BHA), installation structures (URA), and purlins (RAIL) [3][4] - The stability of PV brackets is crucial for the lifespan of solar power plants, and the company assists clients in optimizing product designs based on their mechanical structure needs [5] Competitive Advantages - The company has accumulated extensive production experience and technical expertise in product design, large-scale production, quality control, and cost management [6] - Youli Intelligent has established a strong reputation in both domestic and international markets, collaborating with well-known companies such as NEXTracker, Trina Solar, and others, with products exported to regions including Brazil, Chile, Australia, Canada, Europe, and the Middle East [6] Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry in China is experiencing robust growth, supported by government policies and continuous technological innovation, making China the largest PV application market globally [8] - The market size of the PV bracket industry in China reached 19 billion yuan in 2022, with an expected growth to 21 billion yuan in 2023 and 25.3 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increasing installed capacity [8] Future Prospects - The company plans to raise 26.99 million yuan through its listing to invest in the construction of a production base for core components, a research center, and to supplement working capital, aiming to contribute to the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry [9]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic glass market has shown signs of recovery since August, with prices rebounding after a prolonged decline, driven by reduced supply and policy implementation [1] - As of this week, the price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 10-11 yuan per square meter, up 7.79% from the end of July, while the mainstream transaction price for 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is 18-19 yuan per square meter, up 4.23% from the end of July [1] - The increase in photovoltaic glass prices is attributed to several factors, including increased orders from downstream component manufacturers, reduced supply due to furnace repairs by some glass manufacturers, and rising prices across the photovoltaic industry [1] Group 2 - Since July, leading companies in the photovoltaic glass industry, such as Fuyao Glass, have successfully implemented production cuts, reducing daily production capacity from nearly 100,000 tons to 85,000 tons [2] - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting in July emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and guide companies to improve product quality, promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [2] - A meeting held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 31 resulted in a consensus among industry players to reprice orders below cost and maintain a unified trend of continued production cuts [2]