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工业硅:弱势格局;多晶硅:下跌回落为主
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 02:42
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak pattern [1] - Polysilicon: Mainly in a downward trend [2] 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market shows a weak situation, and the polysilicon market is mainly experiencing a downward trend [1][2] - Turkey's photovoltaic industry has significant growth momentum, with its cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reaching 25827MW by the end of January 2026, and the proportion of photovoltaic installed capacity in the total installed capacity rising to 20.9% [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605 closing price is 8,605 yuan/ton, with changes of -30 (T - 1), -45 (T - 5), and -270 (T - 22); PS2605 closing price is 35,730 yuan/ton, with a T - 1 change of 295 and a T - 5 change of -5,940. There are also corresponding changes in trading volumes and open interests [2] - **Basis and Price**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts for different standards, and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock price is 42,500 yuan/ton, with a T - 1 change of -750, a T - 5 change of -3000, and a T - 22 change of -10750 [2] - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for different standards in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits are -1.8 yuan/kg, with a T - 1 change of -0.4, a T - 5 change of -2.6, and a T - 22 change of -10.3 [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory is 55.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 19.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 75.1 million tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 34.4 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions have little change [2] - **Prices and Profits in Related Industries**: In the polysilicon (photovoltaic), organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries, there are corresponding changes in prices and profits [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Turkey's photovoltaic cumulative installed capacity reached 25827MW by the end of January 2026, and multiple photovoltaic projects were connected to the grid in January, including the first large - scale photovoltaic energy storage integration project [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; polysilicon trend intensity: -1 [4]
多晶硅:需求回落:工业硅:弱势格局为主
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 01:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is mainly in a weak pattern, and the demand for polysilicon is declining [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 45 yuan compared to T - 1; PS2605's closing price was 42,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also showed certain changes [2] - **Basis**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends compared to different benchmarks [2] - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products such as silicon powder, silicon wafers, and battery cells all had certain fluctuations [2] - **Profits**: The profits of silicon factories, polysilicon enterprises, DMC enterprises, and regenerative aluminum enterprises also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon's social inventory, enterprise inventory, and industry inventory decreased to some extent, while the polysilicon's factory inventory increased [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes remained relatively stable, with only a few showing slight changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the application for the development and construction plan of on - shore wind power and photovoltaic power stations in 2026, specifying new application projects [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 0, indicating a neutral view [4]
工业硅:关注成本端抬升影响,多晶硅:供需偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 02:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, highlighting the need to pay attention to the impact of rising cost - end on industrial silicon and the weak supply - demand situation of polysilicon [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,690 yuan/ton, with a change of - 170 yuan/ton compared to T - 22. The PS2605 closing price of polysilicon was 41,115 yuan/ton, down 1,165 yuan/ton from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume and open interest for both [1] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon had different spot premiums or discounts against different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium against East China Si5530 was + 410 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - investment was + 6885 yuan/ton [1] - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8500 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 49000 yuan/ton. There were also price data for other related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [1] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 were - 2441.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 were - 5321 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits were 4.8 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.3 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 34.8 tons. There were also data on enterprise inventory and industry inventory for industrial silicon [1] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes were provided. For example, the price of Xinjiang silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 5, 2026, the Dali Prefecture Development and Reform Commission and the Dali Prefecture Energy Bureau in Yunnan Province issued an announcement on the first - round competitive allocation of new energy projects. There were 13 projects in total, with a total installed capacity of 705,070 kilowatts, including 9 photovoltaic projects with a total scale of 537,420 kilowatts and 4 wind power projects with a total scale of 167,650 kilowatts [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity was 0, and polysilicon trend intensity was 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]
多晶硅:供需走弱,现货价格或有松动:工业硅:关注市场情绪影响
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 01:43
Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to the impact of market sentiment on industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the supply - demand relationship is weakening, and the spot price may loosen [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The Si2605 closing price is 8,205 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 120 yuan compared to T - 1, 205 yuan compared to T - 5, and 620 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 285,487 lots, and the open interest is 348,330 lots [2]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The PS2605 closing price is 43,700 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan from T - 1 and 3,300 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume is 9,256 lots, and the open interest is 39,340 lots [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's basis shows different values when benchmarked against different grades. For example, the basis against East China Si5530 is +895 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's basis against N - type re - investment material is +8300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon is 8,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from T - 1, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 remains at 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon N - type re - investment material is 51,900 yuan/ton, with no change from T - 1 but a decrease of 1,100 yuan from T - 5 [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 are - 2,926.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 5,806 yuan/ton, both showing declines compared to previous periods. Polysilicon enterprise profits are 7.6 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 but down compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 56.203 million tons, and the industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 34.4 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions show different trends. For instance, the price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules. By 2027, the green production level of photovoltaic modules will be further improved, and the comprehensive utilization volume will reach 250,000 tons. By 2030, the comprehensive utilization technology and equipment level will be further enhanced [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral stance [4].
工业硅:关注上游复产情况,多晶硅:关注节后现货成交
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 02:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, focus on the resumption of production in the upstream [2] - For polysilicon, focus on spot transactions after the holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2605 closing price is 8,335 yuan/ton, with a change of -95 yuan compared to T - 1; PS2605 closing price is 46,315 yuan/ton, with a change of -1,315 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - **Basis Data**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +915 yuan/ton, with a change of 95 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - **Price Data**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 52000 yuan/ton, with a change of -1000 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - **Profit Data**: Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is -2796.5 yuan/ton, with a change of -95 yuan compared to T - 1; polysilicon enterprise profit is 7.7 yuan/kg, with a change of -0.6 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 560,000 tons, with an increase of 3,000 tons compared to T - 5; polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 344,000 tons, with a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to T - 5 [1] - **Raw Material Cost Data**: Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to T - 1; Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to T - 1 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US Department of Commerce will impose counter - subsidy duties on crystalline silicon solar cell components imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The general subsidy rates for Indian producers/exports are set at 125.87%, 104.38% for Indonesia, and 80.67% for Laos [3] 3. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0; polysilicon trend intensity is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]
多晶硅:行业会议情绪积极,或提振盘面:工业硅:下方空间不深
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 01:46
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for industrial silicon is not deep [1]. - The sentiment at the polysilicon industry conference is positive, which may boost the market [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price is 8,850 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 208,226 lots and an open interest of 241,016 lots; PS2605's closing price is 51,195 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 13,013 lots and an open interest of 39,092 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +500 yuan/ton; polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - feed) is +2555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 53500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2281.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 5474 yuan/ton; the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton; Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton, Ningxia washed coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton; Maoming petroleum coke is 1400 yuan/ton, Yangzi petroleum coke is 2340 yuan/ton; graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.53 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.435 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.738 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is 1906 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is 23800 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 40 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Yunnan Province issued the "Implementation Rules of the <Eco - protection Compensation Regulations> of Yunnan Province", aiming to establish a power - generating enterprise feedback mechanism, extracting ecological protection compensation funds from hydropower and photovoltaic enterprises based on power generation, operating income, or carbon sink losses for ecological restoration and efficient water resource utilization [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 2. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].
江瀚新材超32%股份今天解禁,多名高管承诺一年内不减持!
Cai Jing Wang· 2026-02-03 09:18
Core Viewpoint - Jianghan New Materials has released 122 million restricted shares for trading, with multiple executives committing to not sell their shares for one year, indicating confidence in the company's future development and aiming to alleviate short-term market pressure from the share unlock [1][4]. Group 1: Share Unlocking Details - The restricted shares, totaling approximately 122 million, represent 32.58% of the company's total share capital and involve nine shareholders [1]. - The shares are originally from the company's initial public offering, with a lock-up period of 36 months starting from January 31, 2023, and the trading date for the unlocked shares is set for February 2, 2026 [4]. Group 2: Management Commitment - Eight directors, senior management, and key personnel have collectively pledged not to transfer or reduce their holdings from February 2, 2026, to February 1, 2027, which is intended to convey management's confidence in the company's future [4]. Group 3: Company Background and Expansion - Jianghan New Materials specializes in the research, production, sales, and import-export trade of functional organosilicon and other silicon-based new materials, recognized as a national champion in manufacturing and a "little giant" enterprise [4]. - The company is accelerating capacity expansion with a new 60,000 tons/year trichlorosilane project planned in its newly established green circular industry park, aiming to increase total trichlorosilane capacity to 120,000 tons/year [4][5]. - The second facility addresses the mismatch between current and future silane production capacity, utilizing HCL, a byproduct of silane production, as a raw material for trichlorosilane, achieving a full cycle of chlorine element utilization [5]. - Jianghan New Materials is deepening its global layout with over ten overseas warehouses in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the United States, and plans to initiate overseas manufacturing to address challenges in local service and expansion [5].
603281,超32%股份今天解禁,多名高管承诺一年内不减持!
证券时报· 2026-02-02 04:30
Core Viewpoint - Jianghan New Materials has released 122 million restricted shares for circulation, with several executives committing not to reduce their holdings within a year, indicating confidence in the company's future development and aiming to alleviate short-term market pressure from the share unlock [1][3]. Group 1: Share Unlocking Details - Jianghan New Materials announced that 122 million shares, accounting for 32.58% of the total share capital, will be released for circulation starting February 2, 2026, due to the end of a 36-month lock-up period [1][3]. - The company’s eight directors and senior management have pledged not to transfer or reduce their holdings from February 2, 2026, to February 1, 2027, which is intended to convey management's confidence in the company's future [3]. Group 2: Company Background and Operations - Jianghan New Materials specializes in the research, production, sales, and import-export trade of functional organosilicon and other silicon-based new materials, recognized as a national manufacturing champion and a "little giant" enterprise [3]. - The company is accelerating capacity expansion with a new 60,000 tons/year trichlorosilane project planned in its green circular industry park, which will increase its total trichlorosilane capacity to 120,000 tons/year [3][4]. Group 3: Production and Global Expansion - The new facility addresses the mismatch between trichlorosilane production capacity and the current and future growth of silane production, utilizing HCL, a byproduct of silane production, as a raw material for trichlorosilane [4]. - Jianghan New Materials is deepening its global layout with over ten overseas warehouses established in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the United States, and plans to initiate overseas manufacturing to solve local service challenges [4].
工业硅:上游减产落地,对价格构成支撑,多晶硅:关注现货实际成交情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 02:15
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Upstream production cuts in the industrial silicon sector have been implemented, providing support for prices. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions in the polysilicon market [1]. - In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of nearly 11%. The growth rate was 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points higher than that of infrastructure and manufacturing respectively. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking 1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 30 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 135 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 557,616 lots, with an increase of 257,384 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 327,652 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 175,201 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 236,627 lots, a decrease of 26 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 5,193 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 15,562 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - PS2605: The closing price was 47,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 3,580 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 19,537 lots, an increase of 3,911 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 6,094 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 42,513 lots, a decrease of 232 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 1,222 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. 1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium against East China Si5530 was +400 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was +3165 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 1.3 Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 51300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 2700 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 1100 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon (photovoltaic): The prices of relevant products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA had different changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC was 13900 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and an increase of 300 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 was 24350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1950 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.4 Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2206.5 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 5414 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 1.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The profit of DMC enterprises was 1830 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, a decrease of 46 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 101 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 420 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 290 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 20.9 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.3 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) was 76.3 tons, a decrease of 0.61 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.04 tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 7.0 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared to T - 1, an increase of 0.4 tons compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 33.3 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 2.7 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.6 Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price in Yunnan was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 20 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Washed coking coal: The price in Xinjiang was 1475 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia was 1200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke was 1400 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze coke was 2340 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes was 12450 yuan/ton, and the price of carbon electrodes was 7200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration held a press conference. In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year - on - year increase of nearly 11%. Five provinces (autonomous regions) including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu completed investments of over 200 billion yuan. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon was 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].
工业硅:上游减产,关注库存变动,多晶硅:会议情绪积极,构筑盘面底部支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:44
Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon: Upstream Production Cuts, Focus on Inventory Changes; Polysilicon: Positive Conference Sentiment, Building Bottom Support for the Futures Market [1][2] - Analyst: Zhang Hang [2] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018008 [2] - Email: zhanghang2@gtht.com [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - The upstream of the industrial silicon industry has cut production, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [1] - The positive sentiment from the photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium provides bottom support for the polysilicon futures market [2][4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price is 8,925 yuan/ton, with a volume of 300,232 lots and an open interest of 236,653 lots [2] - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price is 49,335 yuan/ton, with a volume of 15,626 lots and an open interest of 42,745 lots [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts show different spreads and basis values, such as the industrial silicon near - month contract to the continuous - first spread being - 45 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices and Profits**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, and the silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 2206.5 yuan/ton and - 5414 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feedstock is 52500 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - Organic silicon (DMC): The price is 13900 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is 1830 yuan/ton [2] - Aluminum alloy (ADC12): The price is 24550 yuan/ton, and the regenerative aluminum enterprise profit is - 310 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory is 55.4 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes and other raw materials in different regions are provided, with most remaining stable [2] Macro and Industry News - On January 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium, emphasizing "anti - involution" as the main contradiction in the photovoltaic industry's standard governance, and promoting the industry to return to a benign and rational development track [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral view [4]