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国投期货能源日报-20250430
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 13:42
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, similar to crude oil, with a bias towards a short - term trend and limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, a slight bias towards a certain trend, but the market situation is not very clear and operability is poor [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined by stars in a standard way, but showing strong performance in the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to decline under pressure during the Asian trading session, and it is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio to hedge against the downward risk of oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the OPEC+ meeting's decision on the production increase rate in June [1] - The fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil but with a smaller decline. The supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened marginally, while the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has been repaired [2] - Asphalt showed the strongest performance among oil product futures, with its cracking spread significantly strengthening and reaching a new high for the year. The improvement in supply - demand has provided obvious support [3] - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure due to factors such as the shutdown of PDH plants and the expected import gas surplus. The market is expected to remain volatile [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian trading session, the SC06 contract dropped by 2.58%. The market focus has returned to supply - demand prospects. The US API crude oil inventory increased by 376,000 barrels last week. Before there are clear signs of improvement in the Sino - US trade war, the room for the demand - driven upward movement is limited. The marginal impact of OPEC+ production increase and the weakening of supply disruption risks due to geopolitical easing still exist. It is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil but with a smaller decline. The supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened marginally as Russian fuel oil shipments increased last week and Singapore's fuel oil inventory continued to rise. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has been repaired due to factors such as refinery overhauls and the strengthening of gasoline cracking [2] Asphalt - The asphalt (BU) showed the strongest performance among oil product futures, with its cracking spread significantly strengthening and reaching a new high for the year. The pre - holiday downstream stocking demand increased, with the weekly asphalt shipment volume reaching 442,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 75,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons. The improvement in supply - demand has provided obvious support [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, with only a slight downward adjustment in May's CP. However, domestic PDH plants are gradually shutting down, and there is an expected import gas surplus in the second half of the month. The domestic market is under pressure, and the market is expected to remain volatile [4]