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能源日报-20260326
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 13:44
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [2] Core Viewpoints - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the core variable determining the long-term oil price trend lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [2] - The market for fuel oil is mainly trading on the war situation. Geopolitical factors provide support for fuel oil in the short term, and any progress in peace talks will cause wide fluctuations in the market [3] - The price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil. The marginal improvement of the fundamentals gives asphalt sufficient upward elasticity, and the callback space is expected to be limited [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last night's EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased significantly more than expected [2] - The US has stated that the negotiations with Iran are productive, while Iran denies having negotiations with the US [2] - The transportation capacity of the alternative oil pipeline in the Middle East still has a huge gap compared with the normal shipping volume through the strait [2] - The release of strategic petroleum reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering, and there is a need for replenishment later [2] - The geopolitical situation is still unclear, and only a very small number of ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz under the control of the Iranian army [2] Fuel Oil & High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US proposed a peace negotiation plan to Iran yesterday, and the geopolitical situation showed a glimmer of improvement, but Iran's hardliners rejected the proposal [3] - The actual passage volume through the Strait of Hormuz is still extremely limited, and only two ships passed through yesterday [3] - The Houthi armed forces said they were ready to control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and the risk of Red Sea pipeline transfer has significantly increased [3] - The LNG gas field has also been affected, and the shortage of gas sources may lead to more demand for fuel oil substitution as the summer power generation peak approaches [3] - On the low-sulfur side, Kuwait's supply has decreased due to the war, and other overseas refineries have also shrunk. In addition, domestic production has declined due to raw material problems, and the high crack spread of refined oil provides continuous component support for low-sulfur fuel oil [3] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future import raw material problems, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce the utilization rate of their production facilities [4] - Most major refineries in the East and South China regions have stopped producing and distributing asphalt. Today's daily asphalt production is as low as 45,000 tons, and the production plan for March has been revised down. The refinery production in April will further decline to 1.58 million tons, which is the absolute low for the same period in recent years [4] - The shipment volume of sample refineries this week has significantly decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded [4] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is low [4]
能源日报-20251217
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 12:39
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil supply - demand is becoming looser. With the progress of peace talks and various news factors, the oil price fluctuates more violently [3]. - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, causing the fuel oil market to weaken. The low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. The high - sulfur fuel oil has potential raw material fluctuations and medium - term market pressure [4]. - The price of the asphalt main contract rose about 3.6% due to the expected reduction of Venezuelan crude oil supply, which may lead to a tight supply of raw materials for asphalt production. It has a positive impact on asphalt and other heavy oil products [5]. 3. Summary by Category Crude oil - The API data shows that the US API crude oil inventory from December 12 decreased by 9.322 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, but it did not boost oil prices [3]. - Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and the positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation increase market concerns about oil supply and lead to intensified oil price fluctuations [3]. Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, and the decline in crude oil prices drives the fuel oil market down [4]. - In the low - sulfur fuel oil market, the remaining low - sulfur quota in December is limited, production may shrink, and import demand may increase. The end - of - year shipping fuel peak season and unstable overseas refinery operations may provide short - term support, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [4]. - In the high - sulfur fuel oil market, US sanctions on Venezuela may affect the arrival of heavy high - sulfur raw materials, providing short - term support. However, rising inventories in Singapore and the Middle East and floating storage accumulation due to logistics blockages bring medium - term market pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose about 3.6%. Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers led to a drop in Venezuelan crude oil shipments to zero (excluding those to the US), and the expected reduction in raw material supply for domestic asphalt production boosted asphalt futures prices [5]. - The competition of local refineries for other heavy high - sulfur crude oils in the spot market may lead to tight global heavy crude oil supply, which is also beneficial to asphalt and other heavy oil products [5].
能源日报-20251113
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 12:05
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor market operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is bearish on crude oil prices in the short term and recommends shorting on price rebounds [2] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is affected by supply and demand factors, while the low-sulfur fuel oil market has improved fundamentals. The strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized and can be considered for timely profit-taking [2] - The asphalt market is bearish in the medium and long term due to weak fundamentals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to fluctuate upward due to tightened supply and demand [4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with the SC12 contract falling 3.66%. The OPEC November report adjusted the non-OPEC+ supply growth rate upward and maintained the demand growth rate, shifting the balance sheet from a shortage to a balance, amplifying market pessimism. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - Since November, the crude oil calendar spread and spot premium have weakened again. Considering that the most relaxed quarter of the balance sheet, Q1 2026, has not yet arrived, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Affected by the pessimistic sentiment from the OPEC November report, fuel oil prices followed the cost side down significantly [2] - The main support for high-sulfur fuel oil comes from the supply risk caused by the constraints on Russian refinery capacity, especially with the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the continuous production increase by OPEC+ has led to an increase in high-sulfur resources in the Middle East, offsetting some of the impact. On the demand side, the power generation peak season in the Middle East has ended, the Palestine-Israel conflict has eased, and the market expects the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 to be issued ahead of schedule, which may further weaken the feedstock demand of local refineries [2] - The low-sulfur market benefits from the alleviation of supply pressure due to unstable overseas refinery operations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, providing support for low-sulfur fuel oil from the perspective of production switching. In the fourth quarter, it is the peak season for marine fuel, and the phased improvement in Sino-US trade relations has improved the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil compared to the third quarter. The previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized, and timely profit-taking can be considered [2] Asphalt - Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in crude oil prices today, the decline of asphalt has slowed down, and the 2601 contract has some support at 3,000 yuan/ton [3] - The lower-than-expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush construction demand in the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that demand is lower than the same period last year. This week, the destocking of commercial inventories has shown signs of slowing down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventories has widened after reaching an inflection point at the end of October. In the medium and long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently, with tight supply of imported resources [4] - The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for combustion. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply and demand has supported the LPG to fluctuate upward [4]
国投期货能源日报-20251110
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 12:59
Report Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Not explicitly rated, but from the star description, it's inferred to be in a short - term equilibrium state [1][4] - Fuel Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish trend but with low operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Not explicitly rated, but from the star description, it's inferred to be in a short - term equilibrium state [1][4] Core Views - The crude oil market had a weak and volatile performance last week. OPEC+ suspending production increases in Q1 next year and the U.S. Senate's move to end the government shutdown provided short - term support. However, there are still supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to short - selling strategies after the oil price rebounds [1] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the weekly shipment volume has weakened, and social inventories have turned from lower to higher year - on - year. Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment in the market, and the decline continues. The destocking of factories and social warehouses in East China is good, and the basis has strengthened significantly [2] - For asphalt, similar to fuel oil, the weekly shipment volume has weakened, and social inventories have turned from lower to higher year - on - year. Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment in the market, and the decline continues. The destocking of factories and social warehouses in East China is good, and the basis has strengthened significantly [2] - LPG has shown strong performance in the oil product futures. The latest week saw a decrease in both the commercial volume and arrival volume of liquefied gas. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the combustion demand has improved due to significant cooling in many places. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG trading floor [2] Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Market performance last week: Weak and volatile [1] - Support factors: OPEC+ suspending production increases in Q1 next year, the U.S. Senate's move to end the government shutdown [1] - Future pressure: Supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 next year [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling strategies after the oil price rebounds [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Shipment volume: The weekly shipment volume has weakened, and it dropped below 400,000 tons in mid - October [2] - Inventory: Social inventories turned from lower to higher year - on - year in late October [2] - Market sentiment: Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment [2] - Regional performance: Good destocking in East China, strong resistance of the lowest spot price, and significant strengthening of the basis [2] Asphalt - Shipment volume: The weekly shipment volume has weakened, and it dropped below 400,000 tons in mid - October [2] - Inventory: Social inventories turned from lower to higher year - on - year in late October [2] - Market sentiment: Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment [2] - Regional performance: Good destocking in East China, strong resistance of the lowest spot price, and significant strengthening of the basis [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Market performance: Strong performance in oil product futures [2] - Supply: Decrease in commercial volume and arrival volume in the latest week [2] - Demand: Increased chemical demand for propane and butane, and improved combustion demand due to cooling [2] - Inventory: Decrease in inventory rates of refineries and ports, and fundamental improvement supports the trading floor [2]
国投期货能源日报-20251107
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 11:52
Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: No clear indication - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No clear indication - Asphalt: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: No clear indication Core Views - The sanctions on Russia's crude oil exports are unlikely to have a continuous inhibitory effect, and there is still room for the downside risk of oil prices to be released this year [1] - The price of fuel oil is mainly driven by the crude oil market, and the spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to further expand [2] - The asphalt market is in the off - season, with weak demand and falling prices [3] - The fundamentals of LPG have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG futures price [3] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and were relatively strong in the Asian session. China's crude oil imports in October increased by 2.3% month - on - month and 8.2% year - on - year [1] - There are rumors of the 20th round of EU sanctions on Russia, but the sanctions are unlikely to continuously suppress Russia's crude oil export volume [1] - The fastest inventory accumulation period for global oil in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year has not yet arrived, and the bullish support of short - term geopolitical factors for oil prices is increasingly limited [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market has been fluctuating, and its price is mainly affected by the crude oil market. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [2] - The crack spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened recently due to factors such as the unexpected shutdown of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery and the adjustment of the shipping rhythm of Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply in Asia is still abundant, and the continuous upward momentum is expected to be limited [2] - Geopolitical factors support high - sulfur fuel oil, but the supply pattern is expected to become looser in the medium term due to the recovery of damaged refineries in Russia and other reasons [2] Asphalt - In the off - season, the demand in the north is weak, and the increase in demand for modified asphalt in the southwest and south China cannot make up for the decline. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased week - on - week [3] - Social inventories have been increasing year - on - year since the end of October. Refineries have been reducing prices, and market sentiment is bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures contract has continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [3] - The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG futures price [3]
国投期货能源日报-20251016
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish tendency with limited trading operability [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook and poor trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish view and low trading operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend and limited trading opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short-term trend and poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is under pressure, with crude oil having a mid-term bearish trend, and other energy products also facing various supply and demand challenges and price pressures [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined further, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.79% intraday. Uncertainty in Sino-US trade and increased expected supply-demand surplus are pressuring the oil market. The mid-term bearish view remains unchanged, and short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US talks during the APAC meeting at the end of the month [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is following the decline of crude oil. High-sulfur fuel oil is relatively stable in the short term but faces multiple pressures in the medium term. Strategies include shorting high-sulfur cracking spreads and widening high-low sulfur spreads after geopolitical tensions ease. Low-sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, and attention should be paid to the impact of increased port fees on trade and demand [2] Asphalt - The asphalt supply-demand remains in a tight balance. It follows the decline of crude oil but with limited跌幅, and the cracking spread rebounds. There is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation by the end of 2025, and the fundamental support is expected to weaken in the later Q4, with continued pressure from the cost side [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG is resistant to decline at a low level. The US propane export volume has decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. There is increased supply pressure from overseas associated gas, and downstream procurement is mainly for刚需. The demand in the combustion end is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not significantly improved [3]
能源日报-20250910
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 13:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, implying a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with the previously recommended combination strategy of shorting crude oil and holding out - of - the - money call options to be continued [2] - The FU2601 contract of fuel oil shows a sideways consolidation pattern, and the decline in warehouse receipts provides some support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil [3] - The asphalt price has a clear support below, and the long positions laid out at the beginning of the week are advised to be held [4] - The international LPG market remains strong, and the domestic market is mainly in a sideways movement due to the support from import costs and the suppression of high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC10 contract up 0.58%. The market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the pressure will be concentrated from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. The bearish trend continues, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The FU2601 contract is in a sideways consolidation range of 2780 - 2795 yuan/ton. The LU2511 contract rose to 3400 yuan/ton and then pulled back. The continuous decline in warehouse receipts provides support for both [3] Asphalt - The asphalt price followed the crude oil to rise slightly at the end of the session. The shipment volume slowed down in the first week of September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The overall inventory level is flat compared to the previous period, and long positions are advised to be held [4] LPG - The international LPG market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by import costs, but the high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market limit the upward momentum, and it mainly moves sideways [5]
原油及相关品种:OPEC+增产,各品种走势分化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 13:14
Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, but the immediate impact on oil prices in Q3 is expected to be limited [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - OPEC+ has made a decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, which is higher than market forecasts [1] - Some oil-producing countries are currently producing above their target levels, and there are constraints from production compensation plans, leading to actual monthly increases being less than the targeted adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - The Asian market has shown a subdued response to the OPEC+ production increase, with expectations that the demand for gasoline and jet fuel will support the increase during the peak demand season in Q3 [1] - After the peak season, if the U.S. continues its tariff policies, a return to OPEC+ production levels could negatively impact the fundamentals, potentially leading to a downward shift in oil prices [1] Group 3: Fuel Types and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil (FU) is experiencing weak performance due to low demand from shipping and deep processing, with a lack of support from summer power generation needs in the Middle East and North Africa [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) has limited supply pressure due to strong coking profits, but overall demand remains weak, leading to fluctuating prices [1] Group 4: Refinery and Inventory Insights - As of now, the shipment volume from 54 sample refineries has slightly decreased, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 8% to 7% [1] - Refinery inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, while social inventories remain stable compared to the previous week [1] Group 5: LPG Market and Chemical Demand - The international LPG supply is overall loose, and with OPEC's further production increase expected in August, overseas prices may come under pressure [1] - Recent maintenance has led to a decline in chemical demand, but lower import costs are helping to restore PDH margins, with attention on the rebound pace of PDH operating rates [1]
能源日报-20250625
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 10:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in a comparable rating style [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, and investors are advised to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of crude oil remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by Middle - East geopolitical risks. After the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, the risk premium will decline, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range [1] - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is deeper than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) [2] - In July, the planned asphalt production of refineries is 247 million tons. The supply may be compressed, but the terminal demand is expected to be boosted, and the BU crack spread continues to rise [2] - The international market of liquefied petroleum gas may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases, and the domestic market faces the pressure of falling gross profit after the increase in import costs [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Products Crude Oil - Overnight, international oil prices declined, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.93% during the day. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by geopolitical risks. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran will lead to a decline in risk premiums, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range. Investors can consider short - selling strategies at the upper boundary of the range [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of FU is deeper than that of LU. The demand for ship refueling and deep - processing is low, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread rebounds from a low level [2] Asphalt - In July, the planned production of refineries is 247 million tons. Some refineries' maintenance is postponed, and one refinery resumes production. The supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The BU crack spread continues to rise [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases. The domestic chemical demand increases, but there is pressure on gross profit after the increase in import costs. The supply pressure will drive the price down [3]
国投期货能源日报-20250619
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 11:06
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil remains in a volatile and upward trend, and investors can hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - In the fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil market, the strength order is SOFU > LU, and the cracking spreads of both FU and LU are declining [2]. - The asphalt price follows the upward trend of oil prices, but the increase in production is limited, and the BU cracking spread is under pressure [3]. - The LPG market is in a volatile and upward trend, but there is supply pressure if geopolitical risks ease [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian session, international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC08 contract rose 4.7%. The Israel-Iran conflict continues, and the supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains. Last week, U.S. DOE crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels due to increased net exports [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Oil prices have risen due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil product futures have followed suit but with a smaller increase than crude oil. The Israel-Iran conflict has a geopolitical premium for high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil from shipping bunkering and deep processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient [2]. Asphalt - The asphalt price has followed the upward trend of oil prices. The increase in production by local refineries lacks resilience, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April. As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and social inventories has continued to decline [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still intensifying, and the risk of production and export from Iran's PQ remains high. The international market is operating strongly. Currently, the domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling margins due to rising import costs. The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas are expected to increase. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure will bring a strong downward driving force [4]