Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, implying a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with the previously recommended combination strategy of shorting crude oil and holding out - of - the - money call options to be continued [2] - The FU2601 contract of fuel oil shows a sideways consolidation pattern, and the decline in warehouse receipts provides some support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil [3] - The asphalt price has a clear support below, and the long positions laid out at the beginning of the week are advised to be held [4] - The international LPG market remains strong, and the domestic market is mainly in a sideways movement due to the support from import costs and the suppression of high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC10 contract up 0.58%. The market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the pressure will be concentrated from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. The bearish trend continues, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The FU2601 contract is in a sideways consolidation range of 2780 - 2795 yuan/ton. The LU2511 contract rose to 3400 yuan/ton and then pulled back. The continuous decline in warehouse receipts provides support for both [3] Asphalt - The asphalt price followed the crude oil to rise slightly at the end of the session. The shipment volume slowed down in the first week of September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The overall inventory level is flat compared to the previous period, and long positions are advised to be held [4] LPG - The international LPG market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by import costs, but the high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market limit the upward momentum, and it mainly moves sideways [5]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, but the immediate impact on oil prices in Q3 is expected to be limited [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - OPEC+ has made a decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, which is higher than market forecasts [1] - Some oil-producing countries are currently producing above their target levels, and there are constraints from production compensation plans, leading to actual monthly increases being less than the targeted adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - The Asian market has shown a subdued response to the OPEC+ production increase, with expectations that the demand for gasoline and jet fuel will support the increase during the peak demand season in Q3 [1] - After the peak season, if the U.S. continues its tariff policies, a return to OPEC+ production levels could negatively impact the fundamentals, potentially leading to a downward shift in oil prices [1] Group 3: Fuel Types and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil (FU) is experiencing weak performance due to low demand from shipping and deep processing, with a lack of support from summer power generation needs in the Middle East and North Africa [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) has limited supply pressure due to strong coking profits, but overall demand remains weak, leading to fluctuating prices [1] Group 4: Refinery and Inventory Insights - As of now, the shipment volume from 54 sample refineries has slightly decreased, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 8% to 7% [1] - Refinery inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, while social inventories remain stable compared to the previous week [1] Group 5: LPG Market and Chemical Demand - The international LPG supply is overall loose, and with OPEC's further production increase expected in August, overseas prices may come under pressure [1] - Recent maintenance has led to a decline in chemical demand, but lower import costs are helping to restore PDH margins, with attention on the rebound pace of PDH operating rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in a comparable rating style [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, and investors are advised to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of crude oil remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by Middle - East geopolitical risks. After the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, the risk premium will decline, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range [1] - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is deeper than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) [2] - In July, the planned asphalt production of refineries is 247 million tons. The supply may be compressed, but the terminal demand is expected to be boosted, and the BU crack spread continues to rise [2] - The international market of liquefied petroleum gas may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases, and the domestic market faces the pressure of falling gross profit after the increase in import costs [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Products Crude Oil - Overnight, international oil prices declined, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.93% during the day. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by geopolitical risks. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran will lead to a decline in risk premiums, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range. Investors can consider short - selling strategies at the upper boundary of the range [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of FU is deeper than that of LU. The demand for ship refueling and deep - processing is low, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread rebounds from a low level [2] Asphalt - In July, the planned production of refineries is 247 million tons. Some refineries' maintenance is postponed, and one refinery resumes production. The supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The BU crack spread continues to rise [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases. The domestic chemical demand increases, but there is pressure on gross profit after the increase in import costs. The supply pressure will drive the price down [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil remains in a volatile and upward trend, and investors can hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - In the fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil market, the strength order is SOFU > LU, and the cracking spreads of both FU and LU are declining [2]. - The asphalt price follows the upward trend of oil prices, but the increase in production is limited, and the BU cracking spread is under pressure [3]. - The LPG market is in a volatile and upward trend, but there is supply pressure if geopolitical risks ease [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian session, international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC08 contract rose 4.7%. The Israel-Iran conflict continues, and the supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains. Last week, U.S. DOE crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels due to increased net exports [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Oil prices have risen due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil product futures have followed suit but with a smaller increase than crude oil. The Israel-Iran conflict has a geopolitical premium for high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil from shipping bunkering and deep processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient [2]. Asphalt - The asphalt price has followed the upward trend of oil prices. The increase in production by local refineries lacks resilience, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April. As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and social inventories has continued to decline [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still intensifying, and the risk of production and export from Iran's PQ remains high. The international market is operating strongly. Currently, the domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling margins due to rising import costs. The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas are expected to increase. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure will bring a strong downward driving force [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as having a certain bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities according to the star - rating description) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price showed a pattern of rising and then falling overnight, and the SC07 contract declined by 0.35% during the day. The lack of incremental progress in Sino - US negotiations led to insufficient upward momentum for oil prices. Although there were short - term supports for crude oil, the medium - term decline in oil demand and the return of supply would limit the strength of short - term positives. The upward space for crude oil rebounds is limited [2]. - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains relatively weak. With the expected increase in high - sulfur heavy - crude supply from OPEC+ and sufficient low - sulfur fuel oil supply, the crack spreads of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be under pressure [2]. - The BU crack spread of the September contract for asphalt has declined, reaching the entry point for the long - BU crack strategy. Despite short - term pressure on the crack spread, the upward trend is unlikely to reverse due to factors such as high dilution asphalt prices, limited production increase, and growing demand [3]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure. Although the domestic chemical demand is increasing, the growth space is limited. The market is in a state of low - level oscillation with some support from the rising crude oil price [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC07 contract down 0.35% during the day. After pricing in the optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations, there is no incremental progress beyond the Geneva consensus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 370,000 barrels, less than expected. After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, factors like risk - sentiment repair in Sino - US trade, improved peak - season demand, and sanctions risks supported crude oil, but medium - term demand decline and supply return will limit short - term positives [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand in shipping and deep - processing is weak. Although there is support from power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa, lower expected temperatures in Saudi Arabia and Egypt and high - valued crack spreads may lead to more oil - based power generation. The expected increase in high - sulfur heavy - crude supply from OPEC+ will likely weaken the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply from Kuwait's Al - zour refinery and Nigeria's Dongoto refinery is abundant, and with weak demand, its crack spread is expected to be under pressure [2]. Asphalt - The BU crack spread of the September contract for asphalt has declined, reaching the entry point for the long - BU crack strategy. The high price of diluted asphalt in June and July has led to serious theoretical losses in processing, and port inventories are at an absolute low. Although some refineries with quotas have increased or switched to asphalt production, subsequent production increase lacks momentum. After the maintenance peak, the increase in asphalt production from major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has been increasing, and the cumulative year - on - year figure has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, increased significantly from January to April. The balance sheet shows a continued de - stocking trend and low inventory levels. Although the BU crack spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is unlikely to reverse [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Domestic refinery prices for LPG remain weak. With the decline in terminal gas sales and increased refinery restarts, the domestic supply of LPG is abundant. Although domestic chemical demand is increasing month - on - month, the PDH profit margin has slightly declined, and the cost advantage of propane has decreased due to the fall in naphtha prices, limiting the growth space. Under off - season pressure, the inventories of terminals and refineries have increased, and the market is under pressure. The rising crude oil price provides some support to the futures market, and the market is in a state of low - level oscillation [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in a comparable way, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆★, the specific meaning of this symbol is not clear from the given content [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market maintains a volatile performance, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help weaken the negative impact of the trade war on the economy. The OPEC+ strategy of seizing market share through rapid production increases makes it difficult for the supply - demand tightness caused by seasonality and geopolitical factors to last [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively weak, and the supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] - The supply of asphalt lacks the resilience to increase, the demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] - The domestic LPG price is weak, but the downward space is limited due to the reduction of supply pressure. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC07 contract rose 0.52%. The result of the Sino - US presidential phone call was positive, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help the economy. The OPEC+ rapid production increase strategy makes the supply - demand tightness unsustainable, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, with low ship - bunkering and deep - processing demand. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by lower - than - expected temperatures. The supply from Russia to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons in May, and the OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials. The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] Asphalt - The discount of diluted asphalt in June is at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel, and it is estimated to be - $6 per barrel in July. The supply increase is restricted by poor refining and export profits. The demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] LPG - The domestic refinery price is weak. The domestic chemical demand has increased recently, and the international price is relatively stable. The supply pressure has been weakened, and the downward space is limited. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Positive trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: Slightly bullish, but limited trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Asphalt: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase strategy of OPEC+ makes the supply - demand tightness from seasonality and geopolitical fluctuations unsustainable. Keep an eye on short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical disturbances are fully priced in [2] - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains weak, and the cracking and EFS of high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to weaken jointly. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil under the situation of weak supply and demand [3] - The supply increase of asphalt lacks resilience, the demand has a seasonal improvement, the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [4] - The downward space of LPG is limited after the supply pressure weakens, but the supply pressure still exists in summer, and it maintains a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC07 contract dropping 0.83% during the day [2] - Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and has lowered the official price premium of light crude oil sold to Asia in July [2] - The supply interruption caused by the wildfires in Canada has partially recovered, and the inventories of gasoline and refined oil in the EIA last week increased more than expected, indicating that demand cannot match the increase in refinery supply [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing is still weak. Although the power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa in summer provides some support, the expected power - generation demand for crude oil may exceed that for fuel oil this summer [3] - In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil flowing to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons, and the production increase of OPEC+ brings an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials [3] - The bunker volume of low - sulfur fuel oil in Fujairah dropped significantly last week, the peak season of overseas marine fuel demand is coming to an end, and the bonded inventory at domestic ports has decreased significantly under low supply [3] Asphalt - The discount quotation of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of -$6.5 per barrel, and the estimated discount quotation for July is -$6 per barrel [4] - The production of local refineries depends on crude oil quotas, and the start - up rate of major refineries is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining profit and export profit [4] - The demand has a seasonal improvement, but the real driving force still needs to be awaited [4] LPG - Domestic refineries have increased external sales and prices have generally declined. Although the supply in the Middle East is still abundant, the recent recovery of domestic chemical demand has brought about procurement demand [5] - The international market price is relatively stable. The monthly arrival volume and domestic production of LPG at the beginning of the month have both decreased, and the downward space is limited after the supply pressure weakens [5] - The supply pressure still exists in summer, and currently there is insufficient motivation for the improvement of chemical gross profit, maintaining a low - level shock [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, similar to crude oil, with a bias towards a short - term trend and limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, a slight bias towards a certain trend, but the market situation is not very clear and operability is poor [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined by stars in a standard way, but showing strong performance in the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to decline under pressure during the Asian trading session, and it is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio to hedge against the downward risk of oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the OPEC+ meeting's decision on the production increase rate in June [1] - The fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil but with a smaller decline. The supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened marginally, while the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has been repaired [2] - Asphalt showed the strongest performance among oil product futures, with its cracking spread significantly strengthening and reaching a new high for the year. The improvement in supply - demand has provided obvious support [3] - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure due to factors such as the shutdown of PDH plants and the expected import gas surplus. The market is expected to remain volatile [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian trading session, the SC06 contract dropped by 2.58%. The market focus has returned to supply - demand prospects. The US API crude oil inventory increased by 376,000 barrels last week. Before there are clear signs of improvement in the Sino - US trade war, the room for the demand - driven upward movement is limited. The marginal impact of OPEC+ production increase and the weakening of supply disruption risks due to geopolitical easing still exist. It is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil but with a smaller decline. The supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened marginally as Russian fuel oil shipments increased last week and Singapore's fuel oil inventory continued to rise. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has been repaired due to factors such as refinery overhauls and the strengthening of gasoline cracking [2] Asphalt - The asphalt (BU) showed the strongest performance among oil product futures, with its cracking spread significantly strengthening and reaching a new high for the year. The pre - holiday downstream stocking demand increased, with the weekly asphalt shipment volume reaching 442,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 75,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons. The improvement in supply - demand has provided obvious support [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, with only a slight downward adjustment in May's CP. However, domestic PDH plants are gradually shutting down, and there is an expected import gas surplus in the second half of the month. The domestic market is under pressure, and the market is expected to remain volatile [4]