Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, but the immediate impact on oil prices in Q3 is expected to be limited [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - OPEC+ has made a decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, which is higher than market forecasts [1] - Some oil-producing countries are currently producing above their target levels, and there are constraints from production compensation plans, leading to actual monthly increases being less than the targeted adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - The Asian market has shown a subdued response to the OPEC+ production increase, with expectations that the demand for gasoline and jet fuel will support the increase during the peak demand season in Q3 [1] - After the peak season, if the U.S. continues its tariff policies, a return to OPEC+ production levels could negatively impact the fundamentals, potentially leading to a downward shift in oil prices [1] Group 3: Fuel Types and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil (FU) is experiencing weak performance due to low demand from shipping and deep processing, with a lack of support from summer power generation needs in the Middle East and North Africa [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) has limited supply pressure due to strong coking profits, but overall demand remains weak, leading to fluctuating prices [1] Group 4: Refinery and Inventory Insights - As of now, the shipment volume from 54 sample refineries has slightly decreased, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 8% to 7% [1] - Refinery inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, while social inventories remain stable compared to the previous week [1] Group 5: LPG Market and Chemical Demand - The international LPG supply is overall loose, and with OPEC's further production increase expected in August, overseas prices may come under pressure [1] - Recent maintenance has led to a decline in chemical demand, but lower import costs are helping to restore PDH margins, with attention on the rebound pace of PDH operating rates [1]

| 11/11/2 >国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月25日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】隔夜国际油价回落，SC08合约日内跌1.93%。三季度旺季累库幅度或有放缓，但在OPEC+增产周期及 贸易战冲击需求的风险依然存在的背景下供大于求的宽松形势难改。本轮反弹宏观面、供需面的支撑力度有 限，溢价点集中在中东地缘风险，伊以停火协议的达成令单边价格、内外盘价差、外盘柴油裂解等风险溢价面 临回落，布伦特亦将重回57-70美元/桶区间。投资者可关注区间上边界做空策略，风险点在于伊朗若 ...

【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 【原油】 | 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 亚盘时段国际油价震荡，SC08合约涨4.7%表现持续偏强。伊以冲突仍在持续，且美国直接个入的可能性增加。据悉 欧洲官员将与伊朗外长周五在日内瓦举行核谈判,但在美国确认参与前伊朗的能源基础设施及霍尔木兹海峡通行相 关的供应风险仍存。 上周美国DOE原油库存因净出口增加而大幅下降1147.3万桶。原油仍持震荡偏强判断，投资者 仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含硫原油的供应犹动 ...

今日BU裂解9月合约回落，触及多BU裂解策略入场点位。6月、7月稀释沥青贴水报价仍处高位，加工稀释沥青理论 亏损严重,港口稀释沥青库存始终维持在绝对低位。有配额地炼颇有提产或转产沥青行为，但随着原油配额逐渐消 耗，后续地炼增产缺乏韧性。检修高峰后主营炼厂主要计划提升深加工装置开工，沥青产量增幅预计有限。54家样 本族厂出货量环比持续增长，累计同比转增。压路机销量作为沥青消费领先指标、1-4月销量同比大增。终端需求 实质提振指日可待。平衡表预估去库趋势延续且库存水平偏低，BU裂解价差短期遭遇阶段性回调压力,但走强趋势 难言反转。 (LPG) 国内炼厂价维持弱势，终端燃气销售回落且炼厂复工增加外放,国产气维持宽松。国内化工需求继续环比回升，但 海外市场企稳之下PDH毛利咯有回落，且近期石脑油回落导致丙烷成本优势进一步降低，后续增长空间或较为有 限。淡季压力下码头与炼厂库存均有所走高,市场整体承压。原油走强对盘面仍有一定支撑，维持低位震荡。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 能源 日报 | 国营销货 | 11/1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年06月11日 | 操作评级 | | | 高 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in a comparable way, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆★, the specific meaning of this symbol is not clear from the given content [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market maintains a volatile performance, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help weaken the negative impact of the trade war on the economy. The OPEC+ strategy of seizing market share through rapid production increases makes it difficult for the supply - demand tightness caused by seasonality and geopolitical factors to last [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively weak, and the supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] - The supply of asphalt lacks the resilience to increase, the demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] - The domestic LPG price is weak, but the downward space is limited due to the reduction of supply pressure. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC07 contract rose 0.52%. The result of the Sino - US presidential phone call was positive, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help the economy. The OPEC+ rapid production increase strategy makes the supply - demand tightness unsustainable, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, with low ship - bunkering and deep - processing demand. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by lower - than - expected temperatures. The supply from Russia to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons in May, and the OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials. The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] Asphalt - The discount of diluted asphalt in June is at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel, and it is estimated to be - $6 per barrel in July. The supply increase is restricted by poor refining and export profits. The demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] LPG - The domestic refinery price is weak. The domestic chemical demand has increased recently, and the international price is relatively stable. The supply pressure has been weakened, and the downward space is limited. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4]

| 《八》 国经期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月05日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落，SC07合约日内跌0.83%。有消息显示沙特希望OPEC+在8月、9月仍以41.1万桶/天的速度增 产,并将7月销往亚洲的轻质原油官价升贴水下调20每分/桶,其抢占市场份额的意图愈发明显。此外,此前加 拿大野火引发的供应中断已在周三部分恢复,上周EIA汽油和精炼油库存均超预期增加暗示需求无法匹配炼厂供 应的增加。此前我们谈到OPEC+抢占市场份额策略下的快速增产行为令源自季节性及地缘犹动的供需 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

| 《》 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月30日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 亚盘时段国际油价继续承压下行,SC06合约日内跌2.58%。市场关注焦点重回偏控供需前景,上周美国API原油 库存超预期增加376万桶。此前我们谈到中美贸易战无明确向好迹象前需求利多的演绎空间受限,供应端 OPEO+增登释放,以及俄乌、伊核、巴以地缘缓和带来的供应抗动风险弱化仍有边际演绎空间。假期期间关注美 伊核谈进展及5月5日OPEC+会议对6月增产速度的定调，继续持有低成本偏空期权组合对冲油价下行风险。 【燃炭 ...