供需回归基本面

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供需回归基本面,油脂价格震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 06:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Recently, the oil market has returned to fundamental trading, and the market is oscillating and adjusting [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,478 yuan/ton, a change of +38 yuan or +0.45% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, a change of -24 yuan or -0.30%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,619 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,520 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.95%, with a spot basis of P09 + 42 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,160 yuan/ton, with no change, and a spot basis of Y09 + 166 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan or +0.41%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 131 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - **Drought in the US**: As of the week ending July 1, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 12% in the previous week and 9% in the same period last year [2] - **Export Sales**: Private exporters reported export sales of 150,000 tons of corn, 226,000 tons of soybeans, and 195,000 tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations. The net sales of US soybean oil exports for the 2024/2025 season were 12,000 tons, compared with 4,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week. The export shipments of US soybean oil for the 2024/2025 season were 6,000 tons, the same as the previous week [2] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The Indonesian government promised to revoke the license of a palm oil plantation operating illegally in the Tesso Nilo National Park in Riau province [2]