Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown a strong upward trend, with significant increases in both London and COMEX markets, indicating heightened investor interest and market volatility [1][5]. Market Performance - As of August 8, the London spot gold price reached a high of $3409.04 per ounce, while COMEX gold peaked at $3534.10 per ounce [1]. - The COMEX gold price closed at $3497.0, reflecting a daily increase of $43.3 or 1.25% [2]. Market Trends - The gold market has experienced a surge, with prices surpassing $3370 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices exceeding 1000 yuan per gram, marking historical highs [5]. - Despite recent fluctuations, gold prices have shown resilience, rebounding quickly after sharp declines [5]. Volatility and Risk Factors - Short-term volatility has increased due to geopolitical conflicts and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with daily price swings reaching 3%-5% [8]. - Geopolitical risks have become a norm, with ongoing conflicts driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. Long-term Outlook - Over the past two years, gold prices have risen by over 87%, with forecasts suggesting potential prices between $3500 and $3700 per ounce in the next 12 months [9]. - The weakening of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have contributed to a favorable environment for gold investment [12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident, particularly due to power crises in South Africa affecting gold production, with global proven reserves expected to last approximately 20 years [13]. - Industrial demand for high-purity gold is projected to grow by 30% in 2025, driven by applications in semiconductors and photovoltaics [14]. Investment Strategies - Physical gold remains a preferred choice for value preservation, with investment bars and coins offering lower premiums for long-term holding [15]. - Gold ETFs provide a flexible and liquid investment option suitable for short-term trading [17]. - For small investors, paper gold and accumulation gold products allow for minimal investment starting from 1 gram [18]. Portfolio Diversification - Gold is recommended to constitute 5%-15% of an investment portfolio to hedge against volatility in equity and bond markets [19]. - Caution is advised regarding leveraged products like gold futures, which carry higher risks for ordinary investors [20]. Conclusion - The gold market in 2025 reflects broader geopolitical and monetary system changes, serving as a tool for individuals to combat inflation and protect wealth [21].

Core Viewpoint - The ethylene glycol market experienced significant price fluctuations this week, with a notable shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by macroeconomic factors and production adjustments in the polyester sector [1] Price Movement - Ethylene glycol prices surged to around 4705 RMB/ton before retreating, with the spot basis briefly rising to a premium of 200 RMB/ton for the September contract [1] - By the end of the week, prices adjusted downward due to falling crude oil prices and reduced polyester production, leading to a weaker spot basis of 70-75 RMB/ton for the September contract [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China was at 60.51%, with the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method operating at 60.04%, a decrease of 6.71% week-on-week [1] - Planned maintenance and production cuts at major producers like Hengli Petrochemical and Shenghong contributed to a lower operating rate, improving the supply-demand structure [1] Polyester Production and Inventory - Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine operating rates increased to 68.0% (+3.0% week-on-week), with texturing rates at 80.0% (+3.0%) and polyester operating rates at 95.00% (+0.80%) [1] - Inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Positive developments in US-China negotiations and a rebound in macroeconomic sentiment have led to improved demand for textile orders, with a notable decrease in long filament inventory [1] - The expected increase in polyester production in May may exceed market expectations, indicating strong short-term demand [1] Inventory Levels - MEG inventory at East China main port was reported at 751,000 tons (-39,000 tons week-on-week) according to CCF, and 664,000 tons (-28,000 tons week-on-week) according to Longzhong [1] - A total of 55,000 tons of imports are planned for next week, with expectations for continued inventory decline [1] Market Strategy - The market outlook is cautiously bullish in the short term, supported by macroeconomic factors and strong demand, despite potential risks from crude oil price fluctuations and coal price volatility [1]