为大豆贸易提供更多风险管理选项 对全球大豆贸易市场而言，在很长一段时期内，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）的大豆期货价格无疑是其 定价的核心基准。在巴西，几乎每一笔大豆交易都会与CBOT价格挂钩。近年来，随着美国大豆出口份 额下降，全球贸易结构向巴西—中国倾斜。中国及巴西作为全球大豆贸易的主要合作国，双方企业有必 要思考在双边贸易中，是否应转而使用更能体现消费国供需变化的大商所黄大豆2号期货价格？ 近日，在由全球知名金融服务公司Stone X组织的交流会上，来自巴西的20余位农场主和农业产业企业 代表与大商所相关工作人员就此问题展开了探讨。 据期货日报记者了解，近年来，在全球政治经济环境不确定性激增的背景下，贸易领域的挑战日益加 剧。以大豆贸易为例，巴西农场主代表Paulo告诉记者，目前除了种植过程中的化肥、人工费等一些必 要的成本支出外，政治上的变化尤其是美国总统换届后不同的政策等，给市场价格带来了较大的影响。 目前，中国是巴西大豆出口第一大目的地。巴西外贸统计数据显示，今年1—6月，巴西对华出口了价值 190亿美元的大豆，占大豆总出口额的74.6%。然而，这种"巴西种植—中国消费"的贸易流，却长期参照 北美市 ...

黄金飙涨，原油跳水 上周，在美联储政策信号、地缘政治和美国经济数据这三大关键因素博弈中，国际黄金价格震荡调整。 美东时间9月29日（周一），美股三大指数小幅收涨。热门中概股多数收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨2.03%。 国际原油价格跳水，截至今早8点，NYMEX WTI原油下跌2.85%。 据新华社报道，伊拉克石油部9月27日宣布，在中断两年半后，当天恢复从伊拉克北部库尔德自治区（库区）向土耳其出口。加之石油输出国组织及其盟 友（OPEC+）计划在11月再次提高石油产量，全球原油供应增加。WTI原油近月合约跌3.45%，报63.45美元/桶，布伦特原油近月合约跌3.08%，报67.97美 元/桶。 现货黄金再创新高 9月30日早盘，现货黄金再创新高，一度升破3840美元/盎司。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 3839.120 | | 昨结 | 3832.935 | | 总量 | | 0 | | +6.185 | + ...

【导读】现货黄金突破 3840 美元再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 李智 现货黄金再创新高！ 现货黄金再创新高 9 月 30 日早盘，现货黄金再创新高，一度升破 3840 美元 / 盎司。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | 3839.120 | | 昨结 | | 3832.935 | 总量 | | | 0 | | +6.185 | +0.16% 开盘 | | | 3832.662 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 3840.589 | 持 | 仓 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 3825.370 | 播 | 色 | | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 关时 | モ日 | | 日K | 周Ｋ | 月K | | 更多 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 3840.589 | | | | | | 0.20% 卖一 | 383 ...

9月29日，国际金价再创新高，现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，一度涨至3819.8美元/盎司。较月初的 3476.5美元/盎司累计上涨约10%，年内涨幅已超45%。而自9月以来，在美联储降息预期的影响下，国 际金价就持续大涨，屡创新高。 伴随着国际金价屡创新高，消费端的金饰品价格也水涨船高。长假临近，珠宝品牌也迎来了传统的销售 旺季。前往门店选购金饰的顾客络绎不绝，各大珠宝品牌也纷纷推出促销活动以吸引消费者。受国际金 价接连上涨影响，国内品牌金饰克价已经超1100元大关。周大福、潮宏基等品牌9月29日千足金饰品的 价格为1108元/克，较本月初已经上涨约80元/克。 "不过现在有促销活动。千足金每克有40元的优惠，一口价饰品除了'故宫系列'，可以打9.2折。"谈及最 近关于"一口价"饰品的调价传闻，周大福门店的工作人员表示，"10月会上调价格，大概在30%左 右。"同样的涨价消息在六福珠宝的门店也得到确认，其柜员表示，"一口价"饰品10月会涨价，但具体 的幅度还不清楚。 "近期金价波动频繁，是黄金饰品涨价的根本因素。加之每年9月、10月是传统婚庆旺季，也是婚庆金饰 购买的高峰期，市场需求的增加也推动了金饰 ...

Group 1 - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office (CIO) suggests that gold prices may have further upside potential due to the possibility of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy and persistent high inflation, which could lead to a decline in U.S. real interest rates, benefiting gold [1][1][1] - UBS forecasts that by mid-2026, spot gold prices could reach $3,900 per ounce, continuing to view gold as an effective tool for portfolio diversification and risk hedging [1][1][1] Group 2 - UBS has upgraded its ratings for the Japanese and Indonesian markets from "neutral" to "attractive," citing reasonable upside potential in the Japanese stock market and favorable conditions for the Indonesian market due to new government measures aimed at boosting economic growth [1][1][1] - In the Chinese market, abundant liquidity and accelerated technological innovation have heightened investor sentiment, with UBS believing that there is still room for growth in the Chinese stock market, particularly as household savings flow into the market, leading to potential revaluation in sectors like robotics, with Chinese tech stocks being a top choice [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that despite recent price corrections, gold remains a valuable investment asset due to ongoing economic uncertainties and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][2]. - The long-term upward trend of gold prices is supported by factors such as increased gold purchases by central banks and high market investment enthusiasm, with domestic gold futures and options funds exceeding 100 billion yuan [1][2]. - Analysts emphasize that gold's role as a risk hedge remains valid, especially during periods of dollar system trust issues, and that historical data suggests gold tends to rise during Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles [2]. Group 2 - Investors are advised to clarify their investment objectives, with a recommended allocation of around 10% of personal assets to gold, while employing a strategy of gradual entry and risk management [3]. - For ordinary investors, low-risk and easy-to-manage investment tools such as physical gold and gold ETFs are recommended, as they offer lower risk and better liquidity [3]. - Analysts caution against impulsive trading behaviors, suggesting that maintaining core positions and adjusting allocations based on market conditions is crucial [3][4]. Group 3 - Short-term volatility risks are acknowledged, with indicators showing that gold is currently overbought, leading to potential profit-taking and price adjustments [4]. - The 14-day RSI for gold has reached 78, indicating overbought conditions, and analysts predict possible short-term corrections within the next 1-2 weeks [4]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt flexible strategies, such as adjusting gold allocations based on market fluctuations, to mitigate short-term risks [4].

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen active performance in technology growth and small-cap stocks, highlighting the high volatility and potential risks associated with high returns [1] - A new quantitative strategy focusing on "quantitative enhancement with downside protection" has gained popularity among private equity firms, utilizing stock selection and derivatives for risk management [1][2] Strategy Innovation - The increasing market volatility and demand for stable returns have led to the innovation of quantitative long protection strategies, differentiating from traditional quantitative neutral strategies [1][2] - Various private equity firms are employing different methods for options hedging and risk exposure management, leading to the evolution of these strategies [1][3] Competitive Landscape - FOF institutions and quantitative private equity firms are competing in the quantitative long protection strategy space, each exploring unique implementation paths based on their strengths [3][4] - Mainstream approaches include using off-market options for lower-cost protection and subjective timing for on-market options to hedge risks [3][4] Market Demand - There has been a noticeable increase in inquiries for quantitative long protection strategy products, particularly from high-net-worth clients seeking to balance market participation with risk control [4][6] - The introduction of new strategies reflects an upgrade in management capabilities, transitioning from pure alpha chasing to a comprehensive management approach [5][6] Future Outlook - The development of quantitative long protection strategies is seen as having significant value and potential, aligning with the trend of providing absolute returns to investors [6] - The strategies are expected to gain further traction as more index options become available and market activity increases, optimizing hedging costs [6]

以下文章来源于量化投资 ，作者十拳剑灵 量化投资 . 十拳剑灵｜用数据做多元配置 • 百万实盘翻倍全程公开｜追求年年稳健盈利 • 陪你穿越牛熊 • 一起慢慢变富 " 资产配置 " 听起来很高大上？别怕，其实它的数学原理超级简单！今天我就用最接地气的方式，带你看懂这个让投资收益更稳的秘诀。 我知道你在担心什么： 怕数学太难？怕分散投资会降低收益？ 放心，这些问题我都会帮你解决！ 01 核心概念：理解资产间的 " 团队协作 " 想要做好资产配置，关键要懂资产之间的 " 协作关系 "— 用数学语言说就是 " 相关性 " 。这就像 组建一个全能团队 ： · 同一工种 （相关系数接近 +1 ）：好比团队里全是销售，市场好时一起开单，市场差时一起喝西北风 —— 同涨同跌 · 完美搭档 （相关系数接近 -1 ）：就像销售和风控，业务开拓时销售冲锋，风险来临时风控守护 —— 你进我退，相辅相成 · 各司其职 （相关系数接近 0 ）：如同技术、运营、市场不同部门，各自为战又共同目标 —— 走势独立，互补共赢 理想的投资组合，就是要组建这样的 " 梦幻团队 " 。这背后的数学原理，是诺贝尔奖得主马科维茨提出的现代投资组合理论： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a metaphorical exploration of various investment strategies in the private equity space, likening them to legendary weapons, each with unique strengths and weaknesses, suitable for different market conditions and investor preferences [2][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The first strategy, "Qinglong Yanyue Dao" (Subjective Long), relies heavily on the fund manager's ability to select stocks and time the market, performing well in bullish markets with clear themes [9][10][15]. - The second strategy, "Xuedizi" (Quantitative Long), utilizes complex algorithms to identify stocks based on specific metrics, excelling in active markets with high trading volumes [18][20][23]. - The third strategy, "Zhuge Lian" (Macro Hedging), involves top-down asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and commodities, generally effective in diverse market conditions but can fail during extreme events [26][30][31]. - The fourth strategy, "Fang Tian Hua Ji" (CTA Strategy), focuses on futures markets, capturing trends regardless of price direction, suitable for markets with significant price movements [33][35][39]. - The fifth strategy, "Taiji Shuang Jian" (Market Neutral), aims to generate absolute returns by hedging market risks, effective in bear and volatile markets but may underperform in bull markets [41][45][48]. - The sixth strategy, "Ruan Wei Jia" (Fixed Income +), combines high-quality bonds with a small allocation to riskier assets, providing stability but vulnerable to rising interest rates [50][53][56]. - The seventh strategy, "Xiu Hua Zhen" (Arbitrage), exploits price discrepancies across markets, generating small but cumulative profits, effective in volatile conditions but reliant on market efficiency [58][61][63]. Group 2: Strategy Suitability - Each strategy is designed for specific market conditions, with subjective long strategies thriving in bullish environments, while quantitative strategies excel in active trading scenarios [15][23]. - Macro hedging strategies are versatile but can falter during extreme market events, while CTA strategies benefit from significant price trends [31][39]. - Market neutral strategies provide a buffer against market downturns, whereas fixed income plus strategies are contingent on interest rate movements [48][56]. - Arbitrage strategies are most effective in volatile markets but depend on the quick correction of price discrepancies [63]. Group 3: Conclusion - The article concludes by encouraging investors to choose strategies that align with their risk preferences, highlighting the importance of understanding each strategy's unique attributes and market applicability [67][69].

整体而言，全球流动性环境的变化催化了黄金的防御逻辑再度回归。对于希望在复杂市场条件下保持资 产组合韧性的投资者，黄金能够提供跨周期的安全边际。Doo Financial为投资者提供跨市场研究与配置工 具，帮助他们更理性地评估黄金的配置价值，并在全球流动性切换的关键时刻做出更加稳健的投资决 策。 黄金作为无息资产，其估值逻辑与流动性松紧息息相关。在宽松环境下，黄金的吸引力来自于充裕资金 的推动和通胀对冲需求；而在流动性收紧期，虽然金价短期会受到抑制，但当市场逐渐消化高利率冲 击，实际利率回落之际，黄金往往获得新一轮资金配置机会。这种周期性特征，使黄金成为跨阶段资产 配置中不可或缺的组成部分。 重要声明：上述内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。 随着全球流动性周期逐渐进入拐点阶段，投资者对避险与稳健回报的需求日益提升。无论是主要央行的 货币政策转向，还是国际资本的跨境流动调整，都直接影响着市场风险偏好。在这种环境下，黄金作为 传统的风险对冲工具，其战略性地位再度凸显。 同时，地缘政治不确定性和全球央行增持黄金储备，也为金价提供了长期支撑。在当下经济格局中，黄 金不仅作为通胀预期变化的对冲工具，更能够在信用环境 ...