Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The成材is expected to move in a range with consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term within a range, with the成材price showing a downward trend and the aluminum price facing a slow inventory accumulation situation [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The成材price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with the price expected to move in a range with consolidation [1][2] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2] 2. Aluminum (including raw materials and aluminum ingots) - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina had a total built - in production capacity of 110.32 million tons/year and a total operating capacity of 89.57 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate up 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [2] - The supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Future price trends depend on factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, alumina operating capacity, and profitability [2] - As of July 24, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 510,000 tons, showing an increase. The reduction in aluminum rod production since the end of June has led to an increase in the proportion of aluminum ingot casting, and the arrival of goods is the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - In the current off - season, the inventory is slowly accumulating, and the demand pressure limits the upside. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term within a range, and later attention should be paid to the macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3]