【小编注】本文是孙继伟教授10年前写的分析文章，现在回顾复盘，发现文章的分析研判有对有错。请读者指出哪些分析研判是对的？哪些是错的？ 第一波力量：婚房刚性需求持续下降10多年，下降幅度惊人 中国有两股买房的力量非常强大，一股是投资买房的需求，另一股是结婚买房的刚性需求。投资需求完全依赖于房价涨跌预期， 一旦下跌预期形成，卖 出才是真正的投资，所以投资需求绝不是独立的、单向的需求。 在中国，从新婚夫妇的收入与房价之比来看，很多新婚夫妇的购买力明显不足，但是，由于父母、亲戚都会对新婚夫妇买房给予资助，尤其是资助其支付 买房的首付款。正因为这样，"房价收入比"在西方是被经济学家非常看重的指标，但在中国却不起什么作用。另一方面，这也使结婚买房成为最强大的刚 性需求。 中国上一次人口出生高峰发生在1987年，当年出生人口达到2528万人，这一数字比1979年的出生低谷多800万人，比2006年的出生低谷多940万人。上海的 人口出生高峰也在1987年，低谷时间与全国略有不同，上海市1987年出生人口19.02万人，比1974年出生低谷9.85万人多9.17万人，比2003年出生低谷8.34 万人（含外来常住人口出生2. ...

Core Insights - The current Chinese real estate market has transitioned from a high-growth "golden era" to a transformation period focused on "stability" and structural optimization [1] - The market is no longer reliant on a single scale expansion logic but is characterized by multidimensional structural adjustments driven by policy reinforcement of "housing is for living, not for speculation" and the industry's internal demand for deleveraging and upgrading [1] Market Characteristics - Price differentiation and stabilization are the core operational features of the current market, resulting from long-term supply-demand relationships, urban development levels, and industrial support capabilities [3] - Core cities continue to experience resilient housing demand due to population inflow and concentrated public service resources, while third and fourth-tier cities face price corrections due to population outflow and oversupply [3] - Policy measures have implemented differentiated controls to prevent rapid price increases in hot cities and excessive declines in others, promoting a shift from "imbalance" to "structural balance" [3] Industry Trends - The concentration of real estate companies is an inevitable trend under the backdrop of deleveraging and risk prevention, marking a shift from "barbaric growth" to "high-quality development" [3] - Smaller companies that relied on high leverage and turnover are facing financial strain and potential market exit, while financially stable and operationally strong leading firms are expanding market share through mergers and acquisitions [3] - Increased concentration reduces disorderly competition and allows firms to focus more on product innovation and service upgrades, enhancing overall industry development quality [3] Policy Implications - The increase in affordable housing supply is a key policy measure to strengthen the "people-oriented" approach and improve the housing security system, balancing market supply and demand [5] - The types of affordable housing have diversified, extending from traditional public rental housing to shared ownership and rental housing, covering a broader range of demographics [5] - The rise in affordable housing supply alleviates housing pressure on low- and middle-income groups and diverts some demand from the commodity housing market, preventing excessive price increases [5] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is in a bottoming process, characterized by a stable construction rather than a simple rebound from market downturns, driven by coordinated efforts across policy, supply, and demand dimensions [5] - Policies are optimizing credit conditions and relaxing purchase restrictions to release reasonable housing demand, while supply-side measures include renovation expansions and increased affordable housing [5] - Demand is gradually shifting from speculative to rigid and improvement needs, leading to stabilized transaction volumes and reduced price volatility [5] Technological Integration - In the context of market bottoming and companies pursuing refined operations, technology empowerment is becoming a crucial support for the real estate industry's transformation [6] - Sales management software, leveraging big data and cloud platform technologies, addresses traditional sales model issues and provides precise decision-making support [6] - This integrated solution meets the industry's demand for efficient and convenient operations, enhancing sales management capabilities [6] Operational Efficiency - High-quality sales software aligns with the entire real estate sales process, addressing various pain points in sales management [8] - The software standardizes customer, property, and financial management processes, reducing errors from manual operations [8] - It covers the entire sales cycle, allowing companies to monitor sales dynamics in real-time and adjust strategies accordingly, ultimately improving operational efficiency and profitability [8]