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10bp的利差调整足够吗?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 13:40
Group 1: Overall Situation of Credit Bonds - As of July 28, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have been adjusted, and the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual real estate bonds have all increased [3][8]. - The varieties with high valuation yields and spreads in financial bonds include leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - debt. Compared with last week, the yields of various financial varieties have basically increased [4][8]. Group 2: Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.4%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level cities and district - level counties in Guizhou. The spreads in Guangxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public urban investment bonds have basically increased across the board, with the 2 - 3 - year varieties having a larger adjustment range [2][15]. - Specific regions' weighted average valuation yields and spreads are shown in Chart 5 and Chart 6, and the changes compared with last week are shown in Chart 7 [16][18][21]. Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.9%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou. The spreads in Shaanxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of various private urban investment bond varieties have mainly increased. The varieties with relatively large yield increases are 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual bonds in Guangxi's district - level counties, 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds in Ningxia's prefecture - level cities, 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds in Guizhou's district - level counties, and 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guangxi provincial - level, with corresponding increases of 18.8BP, 15.6BP, 14.1BP and 12.7BP respectively [2][24]. - Specific regions' weighted average valuation yields and spreads are shown in Chart 8 and Chart 9 [25][28]. Group 3: Industrial Bonds Private Enterprise Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds are relatively high. Among them, the 2 - 3 - year private enterprise public perpetual varieties have a relatively larger upward range, with an average increase of 147.5BP compared with last week [3][13]. Real Estate Bonds - The yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual real estate bonds have all increased. Among them, the yields of 1 - 2 - year private enterprise public non - perpetual real estate bonds have increased by 11.1BP [3][13]. Group 4: Financial Bonds Leasing Company Bonds - The 1 - 2 - year varieties of leasing bonds have a larger yield increase, with an average increase of about 10BP [4]. General Commercial Financial Bonds - The interest rates of all varieties of general commercial financial bonds have increased, with an increase range of 4 to 7BP [4]. Secondary Perpetual Bonds - The yield increase of rural commercial bank secondary capital bonds in secondary perpetual bonds mostly exceeds that of other bank varieties. The yield increase of 1 - year - within and 2 - 3 - year rural commercial bank secondary bonds is greater than 20BP [4]. Securities Company Bonds and Sub - debt - The yield increase of 3 - 5 - year private non - perpetual sub - debt of securities companies exceeds 10BP [4].