发布时间：2025-08-26 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《风险偏好如何定价？——流动性周 报 20250824》 - 2025.08.25 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 固收周报 长久期中低评级产业债流动性下降 ——流动性打分周报 20250825 ⚫ 核心解读 本周报以 qb 的债券资产流动性打分为基础，跟踪不同债券板块 个券的流动性得分情况。 城投债方面，分区域看，江苏高等级流动性债项数量有所增加， 四川、天津、重庆整体维持，山东有所减少。分期限看，1 年以内、 2-3 年期高等级流动性债项数量有所增加，1-2 年期整体维持，3-5 年 和 5 年期以上有所减少。从隐含评级看，隐含评级为 AA(2)的高等级 流动性债项数量有所增加，隐含评级为 AA+的高等级流动性债项数量 整体维持，隐含评级为 AAA、AA、AA-的高等级流动性债项数量有所减 少。 产业债方面，分行业看，公用 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 补跌后骑乘空间增大，继续挖掘中短端城 投 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 上周短信用负面情绪集中释放，补跌后市场态度纠结，担忧之余也在考虑收益率逢 高增配。上周信用债估值全面调整且有明显补跌，尤其是周一短端信用跌幅较大， 看空情绪出现集中释放，后半周相对稳定，但信用利差走阔的幅度未得到修复。前 期基金赎回压力并未向上传导至银行理财，主因短信用估值相对偏稳、对理财产品 业绩影响有限，但在周一信用明显补跌后市场担忧情绪开始提升。但另一方面，市 场也在考虑在短端负面情绪集中释放后可以开始增配，理由有三：一是短信用依然 是确定性最强的品种，毕竟当前市场对待久期依然非常谨慎，关注度也主要在权益 类资产；二是配置需求仍在，如业绩较好的固收+基金规模有所扩大，纯债部分也多 配置短端信用品种；三是资金面宽松，税期扰动结束后资金整体平稳。 ⚫ 策略上，我 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 信用债哑铃策略 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 [Table_Summary] 8月 11-15日，股市走强压制债市表现，普信债收益率全线上行，但信 用利差大多被动收窄。银行资本债表现弱于普信债，收益率上行 2- 10bp，信用利差大多走扩，与同期城投债相比，4-5Y大行资本债收益 率多上行 5-8bp。 目前信用债收益率、利差均处于历史低位，叠加债市不确定性较多、 波动加大，机构整体偏谨慎，尤其是对长久期信用债。一方面，7 月 中下旬以来基金对长久期信用债的需求偏弱，最近三周合计净卖出 47 亿元 5-10 年信用债。另一方面，5 年以上信用债二级成交占比也明显 下降，其中 5 年以上信用债成交占比从 7 月中旬 15.4%的偏高位置持 续降至 5.9%，而 1 年以内成交占比由 29.4%升至 36%。 在此背景下，信用债哑铃策略或占优，即同时持有票息较高、低波动 的防守型品种，以及流动性好的高波动博弈型品种。其中，防守型品 种首选 1-3 年中低等级城投债，由于票息较高，在债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 17, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.13 years and 2.63 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.59 years, 3.72 years, and 4.05 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 2.13 years, 3.22 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical percentiles [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index slightly declined. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index has been falling. This week, it decreased slightly compared to last week and is currently at the 12.20% level since March 2021 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 All - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term hovered around 2.13 years. The duration of Sichuan provincial urban investment bonds extended to 5.36 years, while the trading duration of Guangdong district - county - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.50 years. The historical percentiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Sichuan provincial, Jiangsu district - county - level, Chongqing district - county - level, and Fujian district - county - level have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Henan prefecture - level city urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading term has slightly extended compared to last week, generally around 2.63 years. The trading duration of the pharmaceutical and biological industry shortened to 1.05 years, while that of the building materials industry extended to 2.49 years. The trading duration of the food materials industry is at a relatively low historical percentile, and industries such as public utilities and building materials are at historical percentiles above 90% [3][20]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 4.05 years, at the 99.5% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.59 years, at the 99.1% historical percentile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 3.72 years, at the 66.3% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][22]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical percentiles of 65.3%, 48%, 31%, and 67.6% respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds has slightly extended compared to last week, while the durations of the others have slightly shortened [3][25]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - Information in this part is mainly included in the "All - Variety Term Overview" above, with detailed data and analysis of different types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank bonds, and other financial bonds. For example, specific data on the durations and historical percentiles of bonds in different regions and industries are provided [3][15][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit bonds adjusted following interest rates, with medium - to long - term high - grade bonds having a larger upward amplitude. Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads had limited changes, with spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ platforms generally up 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remaining flat [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, while mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [2][17]. - Perpetual and secondary capital (Two - Yong) bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and the yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [2][29]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds increased, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds narrowed [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds Adjusted Following Interest Rates, with Medium - to Long - Term High - Grade Bonds Having a Larger Upward Amplitude - Affected by the rising equity market and policies such as discount interest and state - owned enterprise purchases, interest - rate bonds weakened significantly this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 3BP, 4BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [5]. - Credit bond yields also increased, with medium - to long - term high - grade varieties having a larger upward amplitude. For example, the yield of 1Y AAA - rated credit bonds increased by 2BP, and the yields of other grades increased by 3BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude. Rating spreads and term spreads showed differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Had Narrow Fluctuations - The spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ urban investment platforms generally increased by 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remained flat. Most platform spreads changed within 1BP [9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial and municipal platforms generally remained flat, while the credit spreads of district - county platforms increased by 1BP [14]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Slightly Declined, and the Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real Estate Bonds Significantly Decreased - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP due to events such as state - owned enterprise purchases, and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [17]. - The spreads of AAA and AA+ coal bonds decreased by 1BP respectively, and the spreads of AA - rated coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, and the spreads of AA+ - rated steel bonds decreased by 1BP. The spreads of all grades of chemical bonds decreased by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Two - Yong Bonds Performed Weakly with Rising Spreads, and the Yields of 3 - 5 - Year High - Grade Varieties Significantly Increased - This week, Two - Yong bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and overall they performed worse than ordinary credit bond varieties. The yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [29]. - For 1Y bonds, the yields of all grades of secondary capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds increased by 4BP, and the spreads increased by 1BP [29]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increased, and the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Narrowed - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 2.76BP to 10.17BP, at the 15.70% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.01BP to 11.83BP, at the 23.40% quantile since 2015 [31]. - The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decreased by 1.82BP to 3.34BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.40BP to 7.51BP, at the 3.67% quantile [31]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term bill and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation) from the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds, and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by the arithmetic average method [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - and medium - term, medium - to high - rated bond issues in the urban investment bond and industrial bond sectors have seen a decline in liquidity. [2][9][18] - In terms of yield, the yields of high - grade liquid bonds in both urban investment and industrial bonds are mainly decreasing, with the decline ranging from 2 - 6bp, and some sub - items showing larger declines. [11][20] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - **Liquidity**: Short - term, medium - to high - rated high - grade liquid bond issues have decreased. Regionally, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues in Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing remained stable, while those in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased. In terms of maturity, the number of 1 - 2 - year high - grade liquid bond issues increased, while those within 1 year and over 5 years decreased, especially within 1 year. In terms of implicit ratings, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues with an implicit rating of AA - increased, while those with ratings of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA(2) decreased. [9] - **Yield**: The yields of high - grade liquid urban investment bonds are mainly decreasing, with the decline concentrated at 2 - 5bp. [11] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Increase**: The main body levels are mainly AA + and AA, concentrated in regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shanghai, and mainly involve industries such as building decoration. [12] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Decrease**: The main body levels are mainly AA, and the regional distribution is mainly in Henan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, etc. The top 20 entities are mainly in building decoration and comprehensive industries. [12] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - **Liquidity**: Medium - and short - term, medium - to high - rated high - grade liquid bond issues have decreased. By industry, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues in transportation and coal increased, while those in real estate and public utilities remained stable, and those in steel decreased. In terms of maturity, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues increased overall, with the number within 1 year, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years, and over 5 years remaining stable, and the 1 - 2 - year period decreasing. In terms of implicit ratings, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues with an implicit rating of AA increased, the number with a rating of AAA - remained stable, and those with ratings of AAA +, AAA, and AA + decreased. [18] - **Yield**: The yields of high - grade liquid bond issues are mainly decreasing, with the decline concentrated at 2 - 6bp. Some sub - items have larger declines, such as an 18bp decline in the A - grade liquid bond issues in the real estate sector, an 8bp decline in the A - grade liquid bond issues within 1 year, and an 11bp decline in the A - grade liquid bond issues with an implicit rating of AA +. [20] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Increase**: The industries of the top 20 entities are mainly transportation, pharmaceutical biology, building decoration, etc., and the main body levels are mainly AAA and AA +. The industries of the top 20 bonds are mainly public utilities, transportation, and commercial retail. [21] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Decrease**: The top 20 entities are mainly in public utilities, real estate, building decoration, transportation, machinery and equipment, etc., and the main body levels are mainly AAA and AA +. The industries of the top 20 bonds are mainly transportation, real estate, and public utilities. [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 11, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds mostly declined, with the 1 - year - within private enterprise private non - perpetual varieties having a relatively larger decline, averaging 6.9BP; in real estate bonds, the yields of each variety basically declined, and the 1 - year - within varieties also had a larger average decline. In financial bonds, varieties with high valuation yields and spreads include leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. More than half of the yields of each variety of financial bonds declined compared with last week [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information on Credit Bonds - As of August 11, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds have higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds' yields mostly declined compared with last week, and financial bonds' yields also had a downward trend in more than half of the varieties [3][8]. 3.2 City Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Offering City Investment Bonds - In public offering city investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.4%. Bonds with yields over 4.5% are in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. Guangxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also have high spreads. Compared with last week, the yields of public offering city investment bonds mainly declined, especially in key provinces. The varieties with large downward amplitudes include non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Inner Mongolia within 1 year, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Gansu within 1 year, perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Chongqing from 1 - 2 years, and non - perpetual city investment bonds of prefecture - level cities in Hebei from 1 - 2 years [2][14]. 3.2.2 Private Offering City Investment Bonds - In private offering city investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.8%. Bonds with yields higher than 4% are in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou. Shaanxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also have high spreads. Compared with last week, the yields of each variety in private offering city investment bonds mostly declined. The varieties with large downward amplitudes are non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Inner Mongolia from 2 - 3 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Yunnan from 3 - 5 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Liaoning within 1 year, and perpetual city investment bonds of prefecture - level cities in Shaanxi from 3 - 5 years, with corresponding declines of 10.7BP, 9.4BP, 9.0BP, and 8.8BP respectively [2][24]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds' yields mostly declined, with the 1 - year - within private enterprise private non - perpetual varieties having an average decline of 6.9BP. Real estate bonds' yields also basically declined, and the 1 - year - within varieties had a larger average decline [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - Financial bonds with high valuation yields and spreads include leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. More than half of the yields of each variety of financial bonds declined compared with last week. In leasing bonds, private varieties had more significant declines, with private perpetual bonds within 2 years declining by more than 6BP. In general commercial financial bonds, the interest rates of each variety fluctuated within a narrow range, not exceeding 1.5BP. In Tier 2 capital bonds, the varieties with more significant declines were mostly perpetual bonds of urban and rural commercial banks within 1 year, and the decline amplitude of perpetual bonds of urban commercial banks within 1 year was greater than 5BP. In addition, the yield of 2 - 3 - year private non - perpetual sub - bonds of securities companies increased by 2.9BP [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial bond market in China has experienced significant growth in both issuance quantity and scale, with a year-on-year increase of 46.54% in the number of bonds and 32.61% in total issuance amount, reaching 1.83 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Drivers - A total of 2053 industrial bonds have been successfully issued this year, reflecting a robust expansion in the market [1] - Key drivers for this growth include sustained policy support, strong corporate financing demand, reduced supply of municipal bonds, and increased market maturity and innovation [1][2] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has also surged, with 493 bonds issued, marking a 61.64% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2: Policy Support and Innovation - Regulatory measures have significantly improved the financing environment, particularly in the technology sector, which has become a crucial driver for market expansion [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has actively promoted the regular issuance of high-growth industrial bonds, resulting in 53 successful issuances totaling 31.815 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Benefits of Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds provide diverse financing channels for various types of enterprises, including state-owned, private, and foreign companies, while also optimizing corporate debt structures [3] - The development of the industrial bond market enhances the multi-tiered capital market system, increasing the proportion of direct financing and reducing reliance on indirect financing [3] - By optimizing capital allocation, industrial bonds can improve resource utilization efficiency and support the growth of competitive enterprises, contributing to high-quality economic development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of the industrial bond market in China is highlighted by the issuance of 8 industrial bonds by several major companies, reflecting a significant increase in both the number and scale of bonds issued this year compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Market Growth - A total of 2053 industrial bonds have been successfully issued through the exchange market this year, with a total issuance scale of 1.83 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.54% in quantity and 32.61% in scale [1]. - The growth is attributed to four main factors: continuous policy support, strong corporate financing demand, a reduction in city investment bond supply, and increased market maturity and innovation [1]. Group 2: Policy Support - The rapid development of the industrial bond market is significantly driven by strong policy support, particularly in the technology innovation sector, which has become a key driver for market expansion [2]. - There have been 493 technology innovation bonds issued this year, with a year-on-year increase of 61.64%, accounting for a 2.24 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Innovation and Diversification - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has actively promoted the regular issuance of high-growth industrial bonds, resulting in 53 successful issuances this year, totaling 31.815 billion yuan [2]. - Over 80 non-bank institutions have participated in investing in these innovative products, indicating a growing interest and diversification in the industrial bond market [2]. Group 4: Benefits to the Economy - Industrial bonds provide a wide coverage across various industries and types of enterprises, offering diverse financing channels and helping to optimize corporate debt structures [3]. - The development of the industrial bond market enhances the multi-tiered capital market system, increases the proportion of direct financing, and reduces excessive reliance on indirect financing, thereby strengthening the resilience of the financial system [3]. - By optimizing capital market operations, industrial bonds improve resource allocation efficiency and support the growth of competitive enterprises, contributing to high-quality economic development [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The credit bond market this week showed characteristics of "the end of spread compression, intensified liquidity stratification, and the initial appearance of policy disturbances." The market oscillated between policy expectations and capital - market fluctuations, with institutional behavior shifting from being dominated by trading desks to being supported by allocation desks. The strategy suggests seizing the "tail - end" market opportunities. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Dynamics and Market Hotspots - **Central Bank's Reverse Repo Operations**: From August 4th to 8th, 2025, the central bank had a net回笼 of 41 billion yuan in the first half - week and then conducted a 70 - billion - yuan outright reverse repo on Friday, switching to a net injection of 16.35 billion yuan for the whole week. This operation balanced government bond supply, tax - period disturbances, and financial stability while leaving room for subsequent policy tool innovation. [2] - **Credit Bond Issuance and Yield Changes** - **Primary Market**: From August 4th to 8th, the issuance and net financing scale of general credit bonds increased significantly compared to the previous week. The issuance amount of general credit bonds was 366.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 188 billion yuan; the net financing was 240.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 186 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term was 3.36 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75 years, and the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29 percentage points. [2] - **Secondary Market**: The turnover rate of general credit bonds decreased week - on - week, with the turnover rate of general credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year slightly increasing, and that of other maturities significantly decreasing. The turnover rate of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds also decreased, possibly due to some institutions shifting to AA - and below - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. [3] - **Yield and Spread**: As of August 8th, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, Tier 2 capital bonds, and perpetual bonds of AAA - rated bonds at various maturities all decreased week - on - week. Credit spreads across the board compressed, with 1 - year - term spreads decreasing by 3 - 5BP, 3 - year - term spreads decreasing by 1 - 4BP, and 5 - year - term spreads decreasing by 2 - 3BP. [3] - **Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds**: The yields of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased across the board this week, with medium - and low - grade varieties performing slightly better. The spreads of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties decreased less. [4] - **Regional and Industry Analysis**: Most provincial urban investment bond spreads decreased by 2 - 3BP, with Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Qinghai having the largest decreases of 6 - 7BP. Most industry spreads of industrial bonds widened slightly this week, with the AA - rated steel industry having the largest spread widening of 5.5BP. [4] Credit Strategy - Suggest focusing on the sinking opportunities of 2 - 3 - year AA/AA - rated urban investment bonds and short - term varieties in the steel industry. For bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, currently, the 3 - 5Y large - bank capital bonds have good liquidity, and capital gains can be gambled on. [5]