信用债利差

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中枢1.9%的焦虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-08 15:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. Among them, the 1 - 2 - year public and 1 - year private non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises have declined by 19.6BP and 14.2BP respectively. The 2 - year private enterprise real estate bonds are more popular [3][8]. - In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads include urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds. Compared with last week, the yields of financial bonds have generally declined. For example, the yields of 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual leasing bonds have declined by more than 8.5BP, and the yields of 1 - year joint - stock bank secondary perpetual bonds have declined by nearly 13BP [4][8]. - In public offering urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.3%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level cities and districts and counties of Guizhou. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public offering urban investment bonds have basically declined, and the average yield of varieties within 1 year has declined by 11.5BP [2][16]. - In private placement urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of private placement urban investment bonds have mainly declined [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. The yields of financial bonds have also generally declined [3][4][8]. - The data in the table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of different types of bonds (including urban investment bonds, non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds, real estate bonds, financial bonds, etc.) under different issuance methods (public offering and private placement) and different maturities [9][12][13]. 2. Public Offering Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.3%, while those in Guizhou's prefecture - level cities and districts and counties exceed 4.5%. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are relatively high. The yields have basically declined compared with last week, and the 1 - year varieties have an average decline of 11.5BP. The varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year non - perpetual bonds of Jiangsu provincial level, 1 - year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level, etc. [2][16]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of public offering urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [17][19][21]. 3. Private Placement Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are relatively high. The yields have mainly declined compared with last week, and the varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year perpetual bonds of Shandong district and county level, etc. [2]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads of private placement urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [25][28].
【立方债市通】上半年债市发债规模超27万亿元/周口投资集团拟发债36亿元/机构展望下半年债券市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 12:46
第 406 期 2025-07-01 焦点关注 债市上半年收官:全市场发债超27万亿元,同比增长24% 截至6月30日,全市场发行各类债券27.29万亿元(四舍五入,下同),同比增长近24%,其中利率债发 行16.93万亿元,信用债发行10.35万亿元;具体来看,上半年国债发行78,880.80亿元,地方债发行 54,901.55亿元,央行票据发行550亿元,政金债发行34,968.20亿元,其中国债、地方债和政金债同比发 行分别增长35.58%、57.18%和19.23%。 上半年ABS承销排行榜发布 在ABS承销方面,2025年上半年各家机构表现如何?7月1日,Wind发布2025年上半年中国内地市场 ABS承销排行榜。 上半年,ABS市场新增发行项目1090只,发行规模达9749亿元,同比增加27%。 信贷ABS新增发行102 只项目,发行总额为959亿元,同比减少23%。从基础资产方面来看,不良贷款发行量最大,发行80 单,共计362亿元;个人汽车贷款次之,发行10单,共计343亿元。 宏观动态 财政部拟续发行2400亿元记账式附息国债 财政部发布通知,拟第二次续发行2025年记账式附息(七期)国债和 ...
票息资产热度图谱:极致 2.0%的顾虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 11:19
公募城投债中,江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下;收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级; 其余区域中,广西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,公募城投债收益率多有小幅上行。具体来看,上行 幅度较大的品种的包括 2-3 年四川省级非永续、3-5 年安徽省级非永续、1 年内贵州地级市非永续、1 年内河北省级永 续城投债等。 私募城投债中,上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下;收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州地级市、陕西地级市、云南地级市;其余的黑龙江、青海、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,私募城投债 中各品种收益率以上行为主。具体来看,收益率上行幅度较大的有 3-5 年广西地级市非永续、1-2 年陕西区县级非永 续、1-2 年吉林地级市非永续、3-5 年辽宁地级市非永续城投债,分别对应上行 9.9BP、9.7BP、8.0BP 和 7.7BP。 产业债: 民企产业债和地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比,非金融非地产类产业债收益率多有调整,其 中 1-2 年民企私募非永续品种上行幅度相对更大,平均上行 9.7BP;地产债中,国企私募非 ...
2.3%以上的意外拉久期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-17 14:28
截至 2025 年 6 月 16 日,存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下: 公募城投债中,江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下;收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级; 其余区域中,云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,公募城投债收益率普遍下行,3-5年品种平均下行达到3.7BP。 具体来看,收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1 年内内蒙古地级市非永续、1-2 年吉林区县级非永续、1-2 年黑龙江地 级市非永续及 3-5 年吉林地级市非永续城投债。 私募城投债中,上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下;收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州、陕西地级市、云南地级市及区县级;其余的甘肃、黑龙江等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,私募城投债收益 率基本下行,2-3 年、3-5 年品种平均下行 3BP、5BP 之多。具体来看,收益率下行幅度较大的有 1 年内辽宁地级市非 永续、3-5 年广西区县级非永续、3-5 年青海区县级非永续、3-5 年河北地级市永续债,分别对应下行 20.6BP、19.9BP、 18.6BP 和 13.7BP。 存量信用债中,民企地产债和产业债估值收益率 ...
票息资产热度图谱:2.3%以上的下沉路径
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 14:07
截至 2025 年 5 月 19 日,存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下: 城投债: 公募城投债中,江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.5%以下;收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级; 其余区域中,云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比,公募城投债收益率基本下行,1-2 年品种平均下行幅度达 到 5.8bp。具体来看,收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1-2 年云南地级市非永续、2-3 年云南地级市非永续、1-2 年云 南区县级非永续、1 年内甘肃地级市非永续债。 金融债: 估值收益率和利差较高的品种有租赁公司债、城农商行资本补充工具。与上周相比,金融债收益率超过半数下行。具 体来看,租赁债是金融债中表现较优的券种,2-3 年私募永续、非永续债收益下行达到 9.1bp、4.9bp 之多;商金债表 现在期限间分化,1 年内品种收益率均向下,多数 1 年以上品种则有不同程度调整,其中,1-2 年大行商金债调整幅 度最大;银行次级债略显乏力,3-5 年永续债收益率一致下行,特别是城农商行品种下行幅度超过 3.5bp,2 年内国股 行二永债则普遍有所回调;此外,证券公司债中,1-2 年、2-3 年私募非永续 ...
票息资产热度图谱:2.2%以上还有哪些债?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 14:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of April 28, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, while the yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the yields of most varieties have increased, with leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools having relatively high valuation yields and spreads [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Situation of Stock Credit Bonds - As of April 28, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased [3][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.6%. Urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are found in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. In other regions, the spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the performance of public urban investment bonds has differentiated among different terms. The average decline of varieties within 1 year is close to 0.2BP, while the yields of medium - and long - term bonds have mostly increased. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Guizhou with a term of 2 - 3 years, perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Shaanxi within 1 year, non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Yunnan with a term of 1 - 2 years, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning within 1 year [2][13]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 3.1%. Varieties with yields higher than 4.5% are found in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou, Yunnan, and Liaoning. The spreads in Shaanxi, Hebei, Gansu and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the proportion of yield increases of private urban investment bonds is relatively high, but there are also many cases of yield declines in varieties within 1 year. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of provincial - level in Shandong within 1 year, perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi with a term of 2 - 3 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Liaoning within 1 year, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning with a term of 2 - 3 years, with declines all exceeding 15bp [2][22]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - The varieties with high valuation yields and spreads in financial bonds are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased. Specifically, in leasing bonds, the yields of public non - perpetual bonds with a term of 1 - 3 years have increased by more than 5bp, while the yields of private perpetual varieties within 1 year have declined significantly. In commercial financial bonds, the yields of national and joint - stock banks and urban commercial banks within 1 year have slightly decreased, while the bonds of other terms have generally adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year term being the period with the largest correction. The yields of bank sub - bonds have basically increased, but except for the perpetual bonds of rural commercial banks with a term of 2 - 3 years and the secondary bonds of joint - stock banks with a term of 3 - 5 years, the yield increases of other varieties are below 5bp. In addition, private non - perpetual and public perpetual sub - bonds of securities companies within 1 year are favored [4][8].