1. 公开市场操作 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 随着 央行 公开市场的连续资金注入，银行间市场资金面呈现常态宽松。存款类机构隔夜和七天回购加权利率均回落，均下行 5 个 bp 左右， D R001 目前 在 1.41% 附近， D R007 在 1.46% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价也集中在 1.4% 附近，供给数百亿。 Wind 数据显示， 8 月 25 日 -29 日当周央行公开市场将有 20770 亿元逆回购到期，还将有 3000 亿元 MLF 到期、 5000 亿元 6 个月期买断式逆回购到 期、 4000 亿元 3 个月期买断式逆回购到期。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.31% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 附近，较上日基本持平。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA ...

【导读】"股债跷跷板"效应凸显，短期或呈现震荡磨顶行情，中长期债券市场仍会回归基本 面和资金面定价 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 张燕北 近期股市持续走高，债市却同步经历显著调整。对于本轮债市下跌，受访公募机构及业内人 士分析认为，背后是多重因素共同作用的结果：宏观经济预期变化、短期货币政策维持不降 息基调、股市走强后风险偏好提升、债市配置资金被分流等，其中市场情绪的催化是主导性 因素。 展望后续债市走向，机构普遍认为，利率连续大幅上行的概率较低，短期内债市大概率呈 现"磨顶"行情，现阶段可配置中短端票息类资产。从中长期维度看，债券市场定价终将回归 基本面与资金面逻辑。 本轮调整主要由情绪催化所致 债基赎回整体可控 自7月初以来，10年期国债到期收益率上行至1.78%，累计涨幅达8.2%；长债调整更为显 著，30年期国债到期收益率上行至2.08%，累计涨幅达11.46%。在业内看来，本轮债券市 场调整的主要原因在于市场情绪变化下资金出现分流。 长城基金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕表示，近期"股债跷跷板"和风险偏好抬升。4月初中 美关税冲击以来，股票市场稳定修复，呈现"高收益，低波动"的反常表现，其风险收益比明 显高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, marks a significant shift in the bond market tax policy, aiming to unify tax rates across different bond types and strengthen fiscal revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Significance - The previous exemption of interest income from government bonds from business tax and later from value-added tax has significantly boosted the attractiveness of bond investments, contributing to the rapid growth of China's bond market, which is now the second largest globally [2]. - The reform is expected to consolidate the pricing benchmark of government bond yield curves and alleviate fiscal pressure, with a gradual implementation strategy to stabilize expectations for existing bondholders [2]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Market Impact - In the short term, the tax reform will create a price effect and impact bond spreads, favoring existing tax-exempt government and local bonds while enhancing the attractiveness of credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit [3]. - In the long term, the impact on bond yields is expected to be limited, as the valuation of bonds will gradually incorporate new issues, with market movements still driven by economic fundamentals, policy, and liquidity [3]. Group 3: Impact on Institutional Investors - The tax reform will have a more pronounced effect on institutional investors, with banks and brokerages facing a 6% tax rate, while public funds, bank wealth management, and insurance asset management products will benefit from a lower 3% tax rate, potentially attracting more funds into these products [4]. - The increased tax burden on proprietary trading departments may lead them to increase outsourcing to enhance returns, while public funds may see a boost in their growth opportunities due to their tax advantages [5]. Group 4: Impact on Individual Investors - For individual investors directly investing in bonds, the tax reform's impact is expected to be minimal, as existing bonds issued before August 8, 2025, remain unaffected, potentially leading to price appreciation and capital gains [6]. - New bonds issued after the reform may offer higher coupon rates to compensate for the tax, ensuring that post-tax yields do not diminish significantly, thus protecting investor interests [6].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 19, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a slight tightening trend, with the overnight repo weighted average rate initially exceeding 1.50% but later falling back to around 1.47% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined [9] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.23%, the 10-year by 0.03%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Data - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [14] - Non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 249.06 billion yuan, with stamp duty revenue rising by 20.7% to 25.59 billion yuan, and securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 62.5% to 9.36 billion yuan [14] Group 6: Local Government Bonds - Guangdong Province plans to issue offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau, with an expected issuance scale of 2.5 billion yuan [14] Group 7: Credit Ratings - S&P Global Ratings confirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, projecting that the net general government debt will approach 100% of GDP [15]

Group 1 - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with financial bond spreads widening more than non-financial credit bonds. The 5-year and 7-year spreads for lower-rated bonds narrowed significantly, by 4-8 basis points [2][10] - The 3-year financial bonds saw a notable widening in spreads, particularly for perpetual bonds, with 3-year spreads widening by 3-4 basis points [2][10] - The overall turnover rate of credit bonds decreased from 1.99% to 1.93%, indicating a decline in market activity. The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.1 years to 3.0 years [3][10] Group 2 - Institutional behavior shows an increased allocation to credit bonds by wealth management and insurance sectors, while funds have reduced their holdings in secondary capital bonds. Wealth management has focused on increasing positions in bonds with maturities of one year or less [4][10] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a recommendation to prioritize defensive strategies. It is suggested to adopt a short-duration strategy to enhance returns while maintaining portfolio stability [5][10] Group 3 - The average yield for city investment bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 2.12%, with significant variations across provinces. High-yield city investment bonds are concentrated in longer-term bonds [13][17] - The average yield for industrial bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 1.90%, with the textile and social services sectors showing higher yields [17]

截至 2025 年 8 月 11 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 城投债： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级； 其余区域中，广西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率以下行为主，其中重点省份城投 债收益率降幅更大。具体来看，下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1 年内内蒙古地级市非永续、1 年内甘肃地级市非永续、 1-2 年重庆区县级永续、1-2 年河北地级市非永续城投债等。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下；收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州地级市；其余的陕西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债中各品种收益率多下行。具体 来看，收益率下行幅度较大的有 2-3 年内蒙古地级市非永续、3-5 年云南地级市非永续、1 年内辽宁地级市非永续、 3-5 年陕西地级市永续城投债，分别对应下行 10.7BP、9.4BP、9.0BP 和 8.8BP。 产业债： 民企产业债和地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非金融非地产类产业债收益率多有下行，其 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market witnessed a key policy adjustment from August 4 - 8, 2025. The new tax policy resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of government bonds and financial bonds issued after August 8, leading to an expectation of an expanded spread between new and old bonds. Fundamental data such as flat CPI, a 3.6% decline in PPI, and a drop in PMI in July, along with the cooling of anti - involution market sentiment, support the bullish logic of the bond market. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to fall to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5 - year secondary capital bonds of national and joint - stock banks may decline to 1.9%. Although the new tax policy exerts some pressure on new bonds, it forms a downward yield logic for old bonds, especially creating a strong incentive for institutions such as bank self - operations to scramble for old bonds. Credit bonds not affected by the new policy will also be indirectly benefited. Therefore, the current bond market bullish trend is considered the path of least resistance. In terms of credit strategies, it is recommended to increase the allocation of old financial bonds in mid - to - late August and actively capture capital gains opportunities brought about by the decline in credit bond yields [2][6]. - The tax - exemption advantage of non - financial credit bonds may lower the credit spread center. After the Ministry of Finance resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of interest - rate bonds, the after - tax yield of non - financial credit bonds became more attractive due to their tax - exemption status, directly lowering the credit spread center. However, considering the sharing game of tax costs between issuers and investors, the decline in the spread may be less than the theoretical value. It is estimated that the yield of credit bonds may decline by 2 - 5bp, and in the long run, the allocation value of credit bonds will increase, but investors need to be vigilant about the phased disturbance of the new issuance interest rate of interest - rate bonds on the comparison advantage of credit bonds [2][7]. - The duration strategy adheres to the "neutral as the anchor". The fluctuation of market risk preference limits the stretching space of duration, and a 3 - 4 - year neutral duration is the optimal solution that combines offense and defense. Medium - duration credit bonds are less sensitive to capital interest rates and can avoid the repeated disturbances of the capital market in August. At the same time, medium - duration bonds have sufficient repair space and combine odds and liquidity. Long - duration varieties are restricted by the upward shift of the risk premium center after adjustment, supply pressure, and the cautious attitude of institutions, and it may be difficult to replicate the trend - like market of last year. It is recommended to appropriately control positions [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - Yield and Changes of Each Term - The report presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types (including treasury bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, etc.) at different terms (0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y). For example, the 0.5 - year treasury bond yield is 1.34%, showing a - 3.4bp change compared to last week, with a historical quantile of 5.6% [15]. Yield and Spread Overview - Spread and Changes of Each Term - It shows the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types at different terms. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 16bp, with a - 5.7bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.1% [17]. Credit Bond Yield and Spread by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - Urban Investment Bond Yield and Spread by Region Yield and Changes of Each Term - Displays the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.70%, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [20]. Spread and Changes of Each Term - Presents the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.66bp, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [23]. Yield and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Shows the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.73%, with a - 2.6bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [28]. Spread and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Displays the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.10bp, with a - 2.5bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 21.5% [33]. Yield and Changes of Each Administrative Level - Presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in each province. For example, the provincial - level 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.72%, with a - 2.1bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [38].

Group 1 - The credit bond market continues to show a recovery trend, with short to medium-term bonds outperforming long-term bonds, as evidenced by a narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in 1-year and 3-year AA-rated bonds [1][4] - The overall credit spread for 1-year bonds narrowed by approximately 3-4 basis points, while 5-year and longer bonds saw a reduction of 1-2 basis points [1][9] - Specific sectors such as urban investment bonds and financial bonds experienced significant spread compression, with 1-year AA-rated urban investment bonds showing a notable decrease of 4 basis points [1][9] Group 2 - The overall turnover rate in the credit bond market decreased from 2.34% to 1.99%, indicating a decline in market trading activity [2] - The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.4 years to 3.1 years, with urban investment bonds maintaining an average duration of around 3.0 years [2][10] - The proportion of TKN (traded notional) in various credit bond categories generally increased, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [2][10] Group 3 - Investment funds were the primary contributors to the increased allocation in credit bonds, particularly focusing on bonds with maturities of 3 years or less [3] - Insurance funds shifted from net buying to net selling in ultra-long-term secondary capital bonds, indicating a change in investment strategy [3] - The net buying scale of credit bonds by wealth management products decreased, despite a sustained increase in allocation over the past three weeks [3] Group 4 - There is a potential for further spread compression in long-term credit bonds, suggesting that investors should consider opportunities in 3-5 year non-financial credit bonds [4] - The cancellation of the value-added tax exemption on interest income from government and financial bonds has improved the relative attractiveness of non-financial credit bonds [4] - Trading accounts are advised to focus on liquid short to medium-term urban investment bonds or major bank perpetual bonds for better trading opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown a trend of narrowing volatility, influenced by factors such as weakening pressure from risk assets and seasonal liquidity easing [2][7][8] - The implementation of VAT adjustments on August 8 has led to the issuance of nine new local bonds, with results exceeding expectations, indicating a theoretical yield spread of about 10 basis points [3][24] - The actual yield spread between new and old bonds was approximately 4-7 basis points, reflecting a market pricing of around 3% VAT [3][25] Group 2 - The pricing reflects that the 6% VAT has not been fully absorbed by demand nor translated into increased fiscal interest expenses, primarily due to enhanced coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [4][27] - The adjustment in the curve compilation scheme means that new bonds will be given higher weight in valuation, impacting institutions managing net worth [4][28] - Institutions may shift their holdings towards new or actively traded bonds to mitigate potential mark-to-market losses from valuation discrepancies [4][29] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern, with a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in long-term bonds like the 30-year treasury [5][30] - The current yield spreads for various maturities indicate significant potential for capital gains, especially in the long end of the curve [5][31] - The relative value switching based on market issuance conditions is crucial for fine-tuning bond selection strategies [5][31]

Group 1 - The credit market has shown a general increase, with the yield curve steepening for perpetual bonds, as credit spreads have narrowed significantly due to a recovery in credit sentiment and favorable tax policies [1][2][4] - The yield on 3-year perpetual bonds has decreased by 3-4 basis points, while the long-end yields have seen limited increases, indicating a flattening of the curve [1][4] - Short-term bonds have outperformed long-term bonds, and lower-rated bonds have performed better than higher-rated ones during this period [1][2] Group 2 - The reintroduction of VAT on newly issued government and local bonds has provided a relative pricing advantage for credit bonds, leading to a noticeable increase in buying activity from public funds [2][14] - Despite a decrease in the scale of wealth management products, there has been a temporary increase in credit holdings due to the attractive pricing of credit bonds [2][25] Group 3 - Since July, there has been a slight increase in the supply of urban investment bonds, alongside stable issuance from state-owned and private enterprises, particularly in the technology sector [3][33] - As of August 10, 2025, the cumulative net financing for credit bonds has reached 1.556 trillion yuan, slightly above the level seen in the same period last year [3][34] Group 4 - Credit spreads have compressed significantly since the beginning of 2025, with short-term spreads compressing more than long-term ones, indicating a structural shift in the credit market [4][47] - The current yield levels for most credit varieties are below those at the beginning of the year, with the exception of some high-grade perpetual bonds [4][51] - Non-financial credit bonds are expected to benefit from a tax advantage of 3-15 basis points, with spreads for mid-to-high-grade 3-5 year credit varieties approaching last year's low points [4][53]