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全球资产配置每周聚焦:美财长提议移除899条款,全球市场风险偏好继续修复-20250629
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-29 14:44
Global Asset Price Review - The US Treasury Secretary proposed the removal of Clause 899 from the tax bill, which is a controversial "capital tax" clause, leading to a waiver for US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries [1][8] - Global geopolitical tensions have eased, resulting in a notable increase in equity markets while commodities generally declined [1][8] - As of June 27, 2025, the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 9 basis points to 4.29%, and the US dollar index remains below 100 at 97.3 [1][8] Global Fund Flows - Developed European equity funds experienced significant outflows, while Japan and emerging markets saw notable inflows [1][8] - In the past week, foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market while domestic capital saw outflows, with domestic outflows amounting to $380 million and foreign inflows of $997 million [1][8] - Active overseas funds withdrew from the Chinese stock market, while passive funds saw inflows, with active outflows of $538 million and passive inflows of $1.535 billion [1][8] Global Asset Valuation - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets, with the ERP percentile for the CSI 300 dropping 4 percentage points to 73% [1][8] - The ERP percentiles for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq are at 4%, 2%, and 6% respectively, indicating a lower risk premium compared to A-shares [1][8] Global Asset Risk Indicators - The sentiment in the US stock market continues to improve, with the put/call ratio on June 27 dropping to 0.90 from 1.23 on June 23, indicating a more optimistic outlook [1][8] - In the A-share market, only 30% of CSI 300 constituent stocks are above their 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, suggesting a weaker overall performance [1][8] Global Economic Data - The US Q1 GDP showed a contraction of -0.5%, indicating increasing economic pressure [1][8] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated expectations for monetary easing, with a 91.4% probability of a rate cut by September 2025 [1][8]