信贷周期延长
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棉花期货日报-20251110
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of a slight decline in spot prices, the price of the cotton CF2601 contract is likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures opened at 13,600 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 13,630 yuan/ton and a low of 13,555 yuan/ton, closing at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 178,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,553 lots to 579,138 lots [2] - **Variety price**: All 6 cotton futures contracts closed higher, and the variety's open interest was 944,677 lots, an increase of 1,307 lots from the previous trading day [5] - **Associated行情**: On the same day, the trading volume of cotton options reached 92,555 lots, and the total open interest was 497,857 lots, an increase of 4,327 lots from the previous trading day [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot price tracking**: On November 6, the average arrival price of imported cotton was 74.07 cents/pound, unchanged from November 5. After conversion, the import cost was 12,763 yuan/ton under 1% tariff and 13,748 yuan/ton under sliding - scale duty [10] - **Registered warehouse receipts**: The cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange totaled 2,769 on the day, an increase of 17 from the previous trading day [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: According to China Cotton Net, about one - third of textile and clothing exporters in India reported a more than 50% plunge in their turnover in the US market due to tariff policies. Around 85% of enterprises faced inventory overstock, and over 80% encountered a 3 - 6 - month extension of the credit cycle, resulting in "severe pressure on liquidity." Two - thirds of exporters had to offer up to 25% discounts to remain competitive in the US market [12] - **Industry information**: The domestic CC Index 3128B closed at 14,795 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from November 5. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at Shandong warehouses (grade 3128B) was 14,890 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from November 5. The National Cotton Basis Index CNCottonJ (CF2601) was reported at 960 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from November 5 [13]