Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Credit and social financing growth are diverging, with financial support for the real economy shifting from indirect financing (loans) to direct financing, primarily through government bonds [4] - The increase in social financing in July was mainly driven by government bonds, with a notable increase of 1.24 trillion yuan, the highest for the month in many years [4] - The report highlights a trend of deposits moving from residents to non-bank financial institutions, indicating a shift in risk appetite among investors [5] Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 310 billion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 6.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from June [3] - The demand for credit remains weak, with both corporate and household loan demands declining, particularly in medium to long-term loans [3][4] - The increase in corporate loans was primarily supported by bills, which saw a year-on-year increase of 312.5 billion yuan [3] Social Financing Insights - Social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 289.3 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 9.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from June [4] - The divergence between social financing and credit growth suggests a transition in how financial support is provided to the real economy [4] Deposit Trends - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year in July, while M1 saw a significant increase of 5.6%, indicating signs of deposit activation [5] - The report notes that the increase in non-bank deposits by 1.39 trillion yuan contrasts with a decrease in resident deposits by 780 billion yuan, highlighting a clear trend of funds moving towards non-bank sectors [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that dividend strategies remain solid, with a focus on direct financing as the primary means of financial support for the real economy [5] - It recommends specific banks such as CITIC Bank, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, and others as beneficiaries of the current market conditions [5]