固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收点评 证券研究报告 存款活化进行时 9 月社融增速继续温和回落，政府债券支撑效应减弱，企业中长贷、居民 短贷仍承压，但亦出现结构性改善，票据冲量减弱，居民中长贷同比表现 转好，资金活化程度提升。 于债市而言，结构性修复的数据尚未形成明显压制，但支撑幅度也相对有 限。行情的演绎或更多取决于机构行为和流动性的边际变化，需要关注存 款活期化、非银化等对银行负债端微观结构的影响，或放大负债端的不稳 定性和资金面的阶段性摩擦，仍需保留一份谨慎。 1、社融增速继续微降、企业债券表现亮眼 社融存量增速继续微降，政府债券的贡献为负。去年 8 月起政府债开始放 量，单月净融资近 2 万亿元，基数效应下，对社融的拉动作用有限。四季 度若无化债额度的靠前使用，不排除年内社融增速有继续下行趋势。 季末信贷冲量、同比延续少增，票据利率月内缓慢抬升，但传统信贷大月 的冲量力度或相对有限，今年上半年时点效应突出，表现为季末月份同比 为正、非季末月份为负，三季度这一特征有所弱化。 企业债券同比表现亮眼，尽管 9 月企业债到期收益率整体走高，但或受益 于政策对于科创债、民企债的支持，提振企业融资意愿。 2、居民 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in narrow money (M1) growth, which rose by 7.2% year-on-year as of the end of September, marking a substantial acceleration of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and a 7.1 percentage point increase from the year's low in February [1] - The narrowing of the "scissors difference" between M1 and broad money (M2) to 1.2 percentage points in September indicates a recovery in corporate production and personal consumption demand [1] - The revised M1 statistics now include both corporate and personal demand deposits, reflecting changes in deposit behaviors amid a recovering capital market and declining interest rates [1] Financial Market Dynamics - The concept of "deposit migration" represents a reallocation of residents' assets, where individuals shift savings from banks to other assets based on changes in return rates [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, resident deposits increased by 12.73 trillion yuan, showing a notable growth compared to the previous eight months, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions rose by 4.81 trillion yuan, indicating a decline in growth compared to earlier in the year [2] - Experts suggest that "deposit migration" is a result of changes in yield relationships across different financial markets, leading funds to flow from lower-yielding assets to higher-yielding ones [2]

Market Review - The report highlights a "deposit migration" phenomenon in July, indicating that residents are increasing their allocation to risk assets, which should be considered when interpreting capital market statistics [1] - In September, despite technical indicators showing signs of divergence, major indices did not experience significant adjustments but instead consolidated at high levels, with residents buying risk assets on dips, effectively limiting the downside of indices [1] - The market exhibited structural differentiation, with strong performance in technology innovation sectors, particularly semiconductors and photovoltaics, while low valuation and dividend styles underperformed, and the financial sector saw a significant decline [1] Economic Environment - In August, investment, consumption, and export growth rates showed a downward trend, but monetary data remained positive; PPI year-on-year growth continued to decline but narrowed significantly compared to July [2] - From January to August, industrial enterprise profits turned positive year-on-year, with a slight recovery in operating income profit margins [2] - By the end of August, the year-on-year growth rate of non-financial enterprises' RMB demand deposits increased by 6.7%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the stabilization of M1 growth [2] Policy Environment - The policy focus in the third quarter continued to emphasize technological innovation while significantly strengthening the directions of "anti-involution" and "promoting consumption," with supply-side optimization combined with demand-side guidance [3] - An important article published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to build a unified national market, which is crucial for constructing a new development pattern and gaining international competitive advantages [3] Investment Strategy - Over the past year, policies have gradually advanced various reform and innovation measures, with effects being released and results becoming evident [4] - The report suggests that investors who believe in policies have already experienced the transition of the securities market from bearish to bullish; the market is now entering a new phase driven by performance recovery and deposit activation [6] - The report recommends maintaining a "barbell" allocation strategy focusing on dividend assets and technological innovation, while avoiding chasing highs and lows during the index consolidation period [6] Market Performance - As of September 26, major indices such as the London Gold and Ho Chi Minh Index led the performance among major asset classes, with London Gold reaching a historical high of $3758.78 per ounce, up 43.2% year-to-date [10] - The A-share market saw significant gains, with the total return of the entire A-share market at 24.0% year-to-date, and the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 leading with gains of 47.2% and 46.7%, respectively [11] - The report notes that 87.1% of the 27 Shenwan first-level industries have risen year-to-date, with the communication sector leading with a cumulative increase of 63.6% [17] Fund Flow - Southbound capital inflows reached a new high, with a cumulative net inflow of 48,514.8 billion HKD as of September 26, marking a monthly net inflow of 1,746.9 billion HKD in September [25] - The margin financing balance reached a historical high of 24,273.7 billion CNY, with a significant increase compared to the previous month and year-end [27]

东吴证券认为，大规模的入市高潮尚未到来。未来两年将迎来高息定期存款到期高峰，预计2025年和 2026年分别有超11万亿元和4万亿元的"超额"定期存款到期，为市场提供巨大潜在资金。大摩提出三阶 段路线图，通过恢复信心、重塑通胀预期和社保改革，逐步引导储蓄进入市场。中国居民和企业部门庞 大的定期存款正迎来集中到期高峰，一场规模巨大的"存款活化"进程已经启动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial data from the central bank indicates a significant increase in RMB deposits, with a notable shift towards more liquid forms of savings, suggesting a potential influx of funds into the capital markets as consumer and investment activities gain momentum [1][3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In the first eight months of the year, RMB deposits increased by 20.5 trillion yuan, with August alone contributing 2.06 trillion yuan [1]. - Household deposits rose by 110 billion yuan in August, marking one of the lowest monthly increases this year [1]. - The increase in non-bank financial institution deposits, which rose by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, indicates heightened investment activity [3][9]. Group 2: Money Supply Dynamics - The growth rate of narrow money (M1) has rebounded, while the growth rate of broad money (M2) remained stable, leading to a narrowing "scissors gap" between M1 and M2, which suggests more funds are being converted into demand deposits [3][4]. - As of August, M2 stood at 331.98 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 reached 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [4][8]. Group 3: Investment Shifts - Analysts suggest that the trend of "deposit migration" is becoming evident, with excess household savings potentially moving into the market, estimated at 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan [3][10]. - The decline in the attractiveness of fixed-term deposits is noted, as lower interest rates have led to a decrease in customers opting for these products [8][9]. - The capital market's increased activity has prompted a shift in the nature of household deposits from savings to trading needs, further accelerating the entry of funds into the market [9][10].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Credit and social financing growth are diverging, with financial support for the real economy shifting from indirect financing (loans) to direct financing, primarily through government bonds [4] - The increase in social financing in July was mainly driven by government bonds, with a notable increase of 1.24 trillion yuan, the highest for the month in many years [4] - The report highlights a trend of deposits moving from residents to non-bank financial institutions, indicating a shift in risk appetite among investors [5] Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 310 billion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 6.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from June [3] - The demand for credit remains weak, with both corporate and household loan demands declining, particularly in medium to long-term loans [3][4] - The increase in corporate loans was primarily supported by bills, which saw a year-on-year increase of 312.5 billion yuan [3] Social Financing Insights - Social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 289.3 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 9.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from June [4] - The divergence between social financing and credit growth suggests a transition in how financial support is provided to the real economy [4] Deposit Trends - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year in July, while M1 saw a significant increase of 5.6%, indicating signs of deposit activation [5] - The report notes that the increase in non-bank deposits by 1.39 trillion yuan contrasts with a decrease in resident deposits by 780 billion yuan, highlighting a clear trend of funds moving towards non-bank sectors [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that dividend strategies remain solid, with a focus on direct financing as the primary means of financial support for the real economy [5] - It recommends specific banks such as CITIC Bank, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, and others as beneficiaries of the current market conditions [5]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by 41,993 billion yuan, up 9,008 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 37,051 billion yuan[1] - New loans from financial institutions reached 22,400 billion yuan in June, an increase of 1,100 billion yuan year-on-year, also surpassing the market forecast of 18,447 billion yuan[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in June was 1.40 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the market consensus of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan[3] Group 2: Loan Demand Analysis - New short-term loans for enterprises hit a record high of 11,600 billion yuan in June, increasing by 4,900 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans were relatively modest at 10,100 billion yuan, up only 400 billion yuan[4] - The total corporate financing demand indicator for June was 18,800 billion yuan, which, despite a year-on-year increase of 1,588 billion yuan, remains below the 24,900 billion yuan level of the same period in 2022-2023[5] - For households, new short-term and medium-long-term loans were 2,621 billion yuan and 3,353 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of only 150 billion yuan and 151 billion yuan, indicating weak consumer demand[6] Group 3: Deposit and Liquidity Trends - New deposits in June 2025 rose to 32,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,500 billion yuan, although still below levels seen in 2021-2023[7] - The proportion of demand deposits in new deposits reached 83% for households and 95% for enterprises, indicating a shift towards liquidity[8] - M1 growth rebounded to 4.6% in June, driven by increases in demand deposits from both enterprises and households, each contributing nearly 1 trillion yuan[9] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The internal demand logic remains unchanged, with government departments continuing to leverage, but the transmission of demand to enterprises and households is not smooth[10] - The strong performance of credit in June may lead to weaker data in July, as historically, July figures have been significantly below expectations[11] - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in domestic policies and liquidity conditions, which could impact market stability[12]