信贷社融数据

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8月信贷社融数据来了!刚刚 央行公布!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-12 12:13
M1与M2"剪刀差"持续收窄。 从价格看,贷款利率保持在历史低位水平。8月份企业新发放贷款加权平均利率约为3.1%,比上年同期 低约40个基点;个人住房新发放贷款加权平均利率约为3.1%,比上年同期低约25个基点。 不过,观察金融支持实体经济情况的"全貌"不宜只看信贷单一渠道。近年来实体经济融资渠道越来越多 样化,企业债券、政府债券和非金融企业境内股票融资等直接融资占比稳步提升,相比于新增信贷,社 融规模、M2增速能更全面刻画金融总量情况。 9月12日,中国人民银行(简称"央行")公布的8月信贷社融数据显示,前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46 万亿元,社会融资规模增量26.56万亿元。截至8月末,反映资金活化程度的M1(狭义货币)与M2(广 义货币)"剪刀差"较上月进一步收窄至2.8%,是2021年6月以来最低值。 值得注意的是,截至8月末,反映金融支持实体经济力度的两大重要金融总量指标——社会融资存量增 速、广义货币(M2)增速均保持高增,且增速均为8.8%。 权威专家表示,无论是反映宽货币的M2,还是反映宽信用的社融规模,同比增速均保持在8%—9%之 间,说明金融总量是比较宽松的,对实体经济的支持力度已经很 ...
【广发宏观钟林楠】如何理解4月信贷社融数据
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-05-14 14:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial data for April, highlighting a significant increase in social financing and various trends in credit and government bond financing, indicating a response to external shocks and a potential shift in monetary policy [1][6][14]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In April, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.2 trillion yuan more year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][7]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][7]. Credit and Financing Trends - New entity credit was 844 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.505 trillion yuan, which was below market expectations [8][9]. - The decline in credit is attributed to three factors: cautious sentiment due to tariff impacts, delayed financial policy implementation, and high repayment volumes from previous short-term financing [8][9]. Structure of Loans - Short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for enterprises both saw a decrease, while bill financing remained high due to its lower risk profile [2][9]. - In the household sector, medium-to-long-term loans decreased by 123.1 billion yuan, while short-term loans dropped by 401.9 billion yuan, marking the lowest level since 2007 [2][9]. Government and Corporate Bond Financing - Government bond financing increased by 976.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 1.0699 trillion yuan, indicating accelerated fiscal implementation [10][11]. - Corporate bond financing rose by 234 billion yuan, with city investment bonds showing some improvement, although overall levels remain low [10][11]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 grew by 1.5% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, with a notable decrease in the deposits of government and institutional entities [12][13]. - M2 increased by 8% year-on-year, with a significant contribution from interbank assets, driven by a relatively loose monetary policy environment [5][14]. Evaluation of April Financial Data - The financial data for April reflects a notable change compared to the previous year, indicating a trend towards "moderate easing" [6][14]. - The data is seen as a temporary response to external shocks, with expectations for improved credit and financing data in May following new policy measures [6][14].