人民币持续走强！ 继前一日在岸、离岸双双升破7.09之后，11月26日，在岸、离岸价盘中又双双击穿7.08。截至发稿，美元兑离岸人民币报 7.07428。 同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元中间价报7.0796，较上个交易日调高30个 基点。今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析，人民币持续升值主要原因有二：一是近期人民币对美元中间价持续向偏强方向调整；二是 今年我国出口超预期，7月以来国内资本市场走强，在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 王青认为，美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击正逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限；不 过，年初以来美元跌幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有较强的抗跌韧性。 国内方面，四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响逐步显现，10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，当月进一步安排5000亿 元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，逆周期调节政策适时加力将确保四季度经济运行基本稳定。这 方面有充足的政策空间，也意味着经济基本 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析，人民币近期升值背后主要有两个原因：一是近期人民币对美元中间 价持续向偏强方向调整。这或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇价尽管 有所升值，但未能与之充分匹配有关。这意味当前汇市调控正在向推动CFETS等人民币对一篮子货币汇 率指数适度上行方向发力。这有助于为我国外贸企业提供稳定的外部环境。二是今年我国出口超预期， 7月以来国内资本市场走强，这在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 综合各类影响因素，王青预计短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势、人民 币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。 （原标题：创逾一年新高！人民币汇率盘中升破7.09） 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 11月25日，离岸人民币、在岸人民币兑美元汇率均升破7.09关口，触及逾一年盘中新高。同日，中国人 民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0826 元，相较前一交易日中间价调升21个基点。今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅约1000个基点。 业内专家表示，受益于美元整体偏弱的外部环境、国内权益市 ...

股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 今年1-10月房地产投资同比下降14.7%，降幅连续8个月扩大；基础设施投资同比下降 0.1%，为2020年9月以来首次转负；制造业投资同比增长2.7%，增速较上月放缓1.3个 百分点，创2021年2月以来新低。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 IH AU 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 今年10月新增贷款和社融规模大幅回落，广义货币供应量M2同比增长8.2%，M1同比增 长6.2%，分别较上月回落0.2和1个百分点，二者之间的剪刀差再次走阔。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 沪深两市融资余额小幅回落至24724..55亿元，央行本周共开展16760亿7天期逆回购 操作，实现净投放5540亿元。 利率 流动性 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 黄金基本面数据 惠农保价 ...

人民币汇率走强，11月14日，人民币对美元汇率在岸价逼近7.09，一度达到7.0908，创一年来新高。 专家表示，受益于美元整体偏弱的外部环境、国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇 率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。 人民币汇率"破7"在望？ 中间价上涨近1000个基点 王青判断，趋势仍会延续，短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势和人民币 中间价调控力度。 中国外汇交易中心数据显示，11月14日，人民币对美元中间价调升40个基点，报7.0825， 今年以来，人 民币中间价年内涨幅约1000个基点。 他表示，往后看，伴随美联储降息步伐加快，以及美国关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数上 行空间有限；不过，上半年美元跌幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有较 强的抗跌韧性。国内方面，四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响会逐步显现，而9月末以来5000亿元新型 政策性金融工具加快推进，10月进一步安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大 有效投资，逆周期调节政策适时加力将确保四季度经济运行基本稳定。这方面有充足的政策空间，也意 味着经济基本面将为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is experiencing a recovery due to increased risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions, with expectations of policy support and a shift in sentiment following changes in fund redemption rules [1][2] - The 30-year government bond yield has decreased by over 8 basis points, with yields for 30-year and 10-year bonds recorded at 2.0680% and 1.7475% respectively, indicating a positive response in the bond market [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with GDP growth slowing to 4.8% and pressures on both investment and consumption sectors, highlighting the need for further policy intervention [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade relationship is a critical variable influencing bond market trends, with the likelihood of extreme tariff measures being low, suggesting a potential for negotiation rather than escalation [2] - The third quarter has shown a significant decline in investment growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, reflecting ongoing domestic demand issues [4] - The upcoming meetings, including the 20th National Congress, are expected to impact market risk appetite and may lead to more proactive counter-cyclical policies, which could affect bond market sentiment [5][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year, with consumption becoming the primary driver of economic growth [1][4][12] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, indicating a significant increase in consumer spending [4][5] - Despite the positive growth, there are concerns about the downward trend in GDP growth rates and the need for macroeconomic policy adjustments to maintain the target of around 5% for the year [2][12] Group 2 - The articles emphasize that consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth, especially in the context of low investment and external trade uncertainties [4][5] - Various macroeconomic policies have been implemented to boost consumption, including significant fiscal measures and support for consumer goods [5][6] - The articles also note that while consumption is strong, there are challenges such as declining retail sales growth and low consumer price index (CPI) growth, which may affect overall economic sentiment [7][8] Group 3 - Experts predict that achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% is feasible, but it requires addressing the gap between macroeconomic statistics and microeconomic perceptions [12][13] - The anticipated economic policies include measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance residents' income, which are crucial for sustaining consumption growth [10][11] - Looking ahead, the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to focus on maintaining a GDP growth target of around 4.5% to 5.3%, with an emphasis on structural reforms and social welfare improvements [14][15]

Economic Growth and Policy Response - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 has decreased to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2, indicating increased pressure for stable growth[1] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustment policies to stabilize growth, which is reflected in the economic data from September[1] Financial Data Insights - Although new social financing and credit growth have decreased year-on-year, M1 growth has accelerated, indicating improved liquidity in the economy[1] - The M1-M2 spread has narrowed, suggesting a better activation of funds, which historically leads to improved economic fundamentals in the following 1-2 quarters[1] Trade and Investment Trends - September saw a significant increase in import growth, indicating marginal improvement in domestic demand, with a shift in the structure of imported goods reflecting the transition of economic drivers[1] - Investment-related imports remain weak, while imports related to industrial upgrades have increased in both volume and price[1] Price and Profitability Metrics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a notable year-on-year improvement, with the decline in PPI growth rate narrowing, reflecting a positive shift in profitability for industrial enterprises[1] - September fiscal revenue has improved, with tax revenues such as VAT and corporate income tax showing accelerated growth rates[1] Risks and Challenges - Despite some structural improvements in September's economic data, challenges remain in stabilizing consumption, investment, and CPI indicators, which have seen declines[1] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, after repeated digestion of policy benefits, the stock index may adjust after continuous rise; the expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been fully digested, and with the official entry into force of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the cooling of risk aversion, gold should be wary of adjustments caused by the emergence of profit-taking selling pressure. In the medium to long term, the valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions, and the stock index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the fading of concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, and the full digestion of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year, gold faces the risk of a deep adjustment [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In September this year, the official manufacturing PMI rose for two consecutive months but remained in the contraction range. Industrial production accelerated further, and demand improved marginally. New loans and social financing scale increased, the year - on - year decline of CPI and PPI narrowed, and import and export growth accelerated [3]. Stock Index Fundamental Data Enterprise Profit - From January to August this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished goods inventory continued to decline. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still faced great operating pressure, had difficulty passing on production costs to end - consumers, and had to actively reduce production and inventory [16]. Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 243.2575 billion yuan, reaching a new historical high. The central bank conducted 673.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 347.9 billion yuan [19]. Gold Fundamental Data Risk - Free Interest Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - The US federal government has been in a shutdown, causing some economic data to be released late. There are differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials support further interest rate cuts this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below the 4% mark [26][27]. US Consumer Confidence Index and Employment Situation - Not provided Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [39]. Strategy Recommendation - Although domestic policy has continuously released positive signals, corporate profits have not significantly improved, and concerns about Sino - US trade tensions remain. The stock index may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. With the repeated digestion of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year and the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, attention should be paid to the risk of a correction in gold after its rapid rise [40].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar in the first three quarters of the year, influenced by a weakening dollar and internal economic improvements, while the yuan's appreciation is seen as moderate compared to the dollar's decline [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The central bank reported that the midpoint exchange rate for the yuan against the dollar is 7.1055, with the yuan appreciating by 829 basis points cumulatively in the first three quarters [1]. - The onshore yuan appreciated approximately 1700 basis points, or about 2.4%, while the offshore yuan appreciated around 2.8% [1]. - The dollar index fell by about 10% in the first three quarters, leading to a general appreciation of non-dollar currencies, including the yuan [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that the foreign exchange market has become more rational and stable during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the yuan's exchange rate showing two-way fluctuations and increased elasticity [2]. - The chief economist at China Bank Securities indicated that the yuan's performance against the dollar has improved this year, contrasting with the pressure experienced during Trump's first term [2]. - Factors influencing the yuan's depreciation are present but vary in their impact over time, suggesting a complex interplay of internal and external factors [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the yuan will remain strong in the short term, with attention on the potential impact of US interest rate cuts on the dollar's performance [2]. - The yuan is expected to maintain a stable trajectory with limited risks of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, supported by domestic policy measures and external economic conditions [2].