人民财讯8月18日电，截至18日午间收盘，沪指半日涨超1%，上证指数创近10年来新高，创指涨超 3%。专家表示，今天A股放量普涨，市场仍有望延续强势格局，不过也需注意高位获利盘回吐压力。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示：随着一系列逆周期调节政策的实施，A股市场已逐渐探明底 部，并呈现出中长期的投资机会。虽然行情整体乐观，但在个股选择上，投资者切勿追涨杀跌，建议多 关注基本面好的行业及公司。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （原标题：专家称A股呈现出中长期投资机会 专家提醒投资者切勿追涨杀跌） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - In the short term, due to the continuous fermentation of the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, risk appetite rises, but corporate profits have not significantly improved, so be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock index futures and protect the profits of long positions; the end of the grace period for the US equivalent tariff policy is approaching, and trade agreements have been reached with important trading partners, leading to a significant decline in risk aversion, so gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, and short positions can be attempted. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end comes from the rise in risk appetite, so the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation; the US may reach more trade agreements, risk aversion declines significantly, and with the approaching of the Fed's July interest rate decision, gold may face a deep adjustment [47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to June this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, the decline in real estate investment widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. The year - on - year decline in new housing construction area narrowed, while the decline in commercial housing sales area and sales volume widened, indicating that real estate investment will still be restricted [5] 2. Stock Index and Gold Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the content 3. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.1 Corporate Profit - Driven by the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, commodity prices have risen continuously, which helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction [20] 3.2 Capital - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continued to increase. The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12.95 billion yuan [24] 4. Gold Fundamental Data 4.1 US Economic Indicators - In June, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped from 59.2 to 49.5, while the Services PMI rose to 55.2, reaching a new high this year. The number of initial jobless claims has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating that the US manufacturing activity has slowed down, but the labor market remains strong, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is running at a high level [30][31] 4.2 Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled down [45]

Economic Growth and Price Stability - The challenges for the second half of the year include stabilizing growth, prices, exports, and investments, requiring continuous counter-cyclical adjustment policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target [1][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June after four months of decline, indicating a need for further policy support to stabilize prices [2][4] - The rise in June's CPI was influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, with oil prices showing a recovery after hitting a low in early May [2][3] Consumer Demand and Industrial Prices - The "two重" and "两新" policies have stimulated domestic demand, particularly in the home appliance and electronics sectors, contributing positively to overall prices [3] - Despite the recovery in consumer goods, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remains weak, affecting corporate profitability and potentially limiting investment expansion [3][4] Policy Expectations - Market expectations for policy direction in the second half remain focused on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices, with a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [4] - Fiscal policy will rely on the issuance of government and local bonds to maintain necessary financing growth, supporting sectors like "两重" and "两新" [4]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for June 2025 is reported at 110.8 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [1][3] - The index has shown a moderate recovery over the past two months, indicating a stable overall operation in the commodity market, supported by positive signals from US-China trade talks and enhanced domestic counter-cyclical policies [1][3] Commodity Price Index Summary - **Overall Index**: CBPI at 110.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month, down 5.2% year-on-year [1][3] - **Energy Price Index**: 97.3 points, up 1.0% month-on-month, down 12.9% year-on-year [3][7] - **Chemical Price Index**: 104.3 points, up 1.4% month-on-month, down 12.6% year-on-year [3][6] - **Black Metal Price Index**: 76.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.8% year-on-year [3][8] - **Non-Ferrous Metal Price Index**: 128.8 points, up 0.8% month-on-month, down 2.0% year-on-year [3][6] - **Mineral Price Index**: 73.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.9% year-on-year [3][8] - **Agricultural Product Price Index**: 98.1 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, up 2.2% year-on-year [3][7] Price Changes of Key Commodities - **Methanol**: Price increased by 7.8% month-on-month [4][6] - **Diesel**: Price increased by 5.4% month-on-month [4][7] - **Xylene**: Price increased by 5.0% month-on-month [4][6] - **Natural Rubber**: Price decreased by 6.9% month-on-month [6][7] - **Coke**: Price decreased by 10.5% month-on-month [5][7] Market Analysis - The chemical price index's rise is attributed to increasing international oil prices, which have pushed up the prices of chemical fibers and basic chemicals [6] - The non-ferrous metal price index's increase is linked to a weaker US dollar, which has positively impacted the prices of metals priced in dollars [6] - The energy price index's rebound is primarily due to rising international crude oil prices, which have strengthened the cost support for products like gasoline and diesel [7] - The black metal price index's decline is driven by falling costs of raw materials like coke and iron ore, coupled with insufficient downstream demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - The June PMI indicates a simultaneous expansion in supply and demand, along with a rebound in price indices, suggesting a positive marginal trend in the economy, supported by better-than-expected stock market performance [1][4]. Economic Indicators - In June, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same increase compared to the same period last year, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, although still below the critical line [2]. - The production index rose from 50.7 in May to 51 in June, reflecting strong manufacturing production intentions and accelerated production activities [3]. - The new orders index returned to the critical point, signaling a recovery in market demand, particularly towards the end of Q2, which is expected to positively impact growth in Q3 [3]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index both increased in June, indicating an improvement in manufacturing price levels, although a full recovery to expansion levels will take time [3]. Policy Outlook - As the market looks towards Q3, there is an increasing focus on incremental and reserve policies, particularly in fiscal policy, which is expected to maintain the issuance and utilization of long-term special government bonds and local government bonds to ensure adequate social financing [4]. - Fiscal spending is anticipated to expand earlier to avoid concentration in Q4, which would enhance the "multiplier effect" [4]. - The monetary policy is expected to continue its positive orientation, with potential room for lowering the reserve requirement ratio and considering the timely restart of government bond trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Index futures [1] - **Bearish Outlook**: PTA, PP, soda ash, methanol, polyolefins, rubber [1][2][10] - **Neutral with Upward Bias**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, polysilicon, iron ore [1][4][5][6][8][10] - **Neutral with Downward Bias**: Lithium carbonate, steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), coking coal, coke, glass [6][8] Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly recovered due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and the A - share market sentiment has been boosted by events such as the parade and the Summer Davos Forum. With the improvement of liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to continue to move up [1]. - The high valuation of treasury bonds has an increasing drag effect, and the bond market is mainly affected by liquidity in the short term, with limited trend drivers [1]. - For precious metals, although the geopolitical risk premium has declined, long - term factors are still favorable for gold prices, and both gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels in July [4]. - In the base metals market, supply and demand are intertwined, and most metals are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound drive and space of lithium prices are limited [6]. - The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and the supply - demand pattern continues to be loose [6]. - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and the weakening of demand in the off - season, and the steel price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply situation, while the glass market has stronger support than soda ash, and short - term low - level oscillation is expected [8]. - The oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage after a short - term sharp decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The demand for methanol and polyolefins is weakening, and prices are under downward pressure [10]. - The cotton market has better fundamentals, and the cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. Summary by Variety Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points and the trading volume increasing to 1.45 trillion yuan. Non - banking finance and power equipment sectors led the rise. Global major stock indexes generally rose, and the stock index futures followed the spot index. With policy support and improved liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to rise [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds weakened across the board. The central bank's liquidity operations and high valuations are the main influencing factors. The overseas geopolitical risk has weakened, but uncertainties remain. The central bank has a strong intention to protect liquidity, but there may be a large liquidity gap in July [1]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical risk premium of gold and silver has significantly declined, but long - term factors are still favorable for gold. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver [4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillates in a range. The supply is tight, but the demand is greatly affected by the macro - environment. The market is waiting for the progress of tariff negotiations [4]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina has an oversupply situation, but the current valuation is low. The Shanghai aluminum has low inventory and supply constraints, which form support for the price [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market has not improved fundamentally, but the downward momentum is weak after the price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling options [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Due to the decline in cost support, it is advisable to enter new short positions in the PTA2509 contract [2]. - **PP**: As the demand enters the off - season, it is recommended to hold the previous short positions in the PP2509 contract [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the alkali plants are accumulating inventory passively. It is recommended to hold short positions in the soda ash 09 contract or the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. Energy and Minerals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and weak demand in the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to run in a narrow range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal has an oversupply situation, and the coke market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market of coke is approaching the bottom, and the decline of the futures price may slow down [8]. Other Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound of the lithium price is restricted [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - **Crude Oil**: After a short - term sharp decline, the oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: The demand for methanol is weakening, and the price is expected to return below 2300 yuan for the 09 contract [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins is weakening, and the price may return to a weak state and may hit a new low this year [10]. - **Cotton**: The supply of cotton is tightening, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the downward pressure on the rubber price is increasing [10].

Group 1: Economic Demand and Investment - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [26] - Fixed asset investment showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in May, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% [53] - Infrastructure investment rebounded with a month-on-month growth of 0.9%, while manufacturing investment accelerated with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [60] Group 2: Industrial Production and Employment - The industrial added value in May increased by 0.4% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 0.2% [66] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [81] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities also fell to 5.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [83] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to alleviate external demand pressure, allowing for a better internal demand recovery [88] - The GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 5.0%, despite anticipated pressure on exports in the second half of the year [88] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact export performance [89]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a sudden drop in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3400 points before retreating, closing down 0.44% at 3384.82 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86% to 10162.18 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.17% to 2037.27 points, with a total trading volume of 14153.73 billion yuan [1] - Sectors such as port shipping, beauty care, innovative drugs, and rare earth permanent magnets saw gains, while sectors like Huawei Ascend, military industry, semiconductors, and software development faced declines [1] Group 2 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with Zhongke Magnetic Industry (301141) hitting the daily limit, following two consecutive gains for Beikong Technology (600980) [1] - The agriculture sector rallied in the afternoon, led by the seed industry, while short drama concepts surged, with Ciweng Media (002343) hitting the daily limit and other companies like Zhongwen Online (300364) and Guomai Culture (301052) rising over 10% [1] - Dongwu Securities anticipates a series of event catalysts for the technology sector in June, suggesting sustained prosperity and better elasticity for growth stocks due to a weak dollar environment [1] Group 3 - Jifeng Investment Advisors noted that with a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies being implemented, the A-share market has gradually found a bottom, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [2] - The stock market has shown signs of stabilizing profit corrections, opening up space for further upward movement in profits and valuations, recommending investors to buy on dips [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils have remained stable or slightly declined during the holiday period, with weak transaction volumes reported in Shanghai and Hangzhou [1] - The U.S. plans to increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting June 4, alongside heightened export restrictions to China, leading to increased market uncertainty and risk aversion [1] - The traditional demand peak for construction steel will end in June, with weakening real estate investment and reports of corporate bond defaults, resulting in poor demand expectations [1] Group 2 - The crude steel production reduction policy has not yet been implemented, and long-process steel mills are still profitable, leading to slow production cuts and concerns about accumulating supply pressure during the off-season [1] - The supply of raw materials is ample, with risks of price declines for coal, coke, and iron ore, potentially lowering steelmaking costs [1] - The forecast for rebar prices in the second quarter is a downward trend, with cautious investors advised to hold sell positions on out-of-the-money call options and to short the 10 contract [1] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in May, indicating external demand pressures affecting manufacturing and indirect exports of sheet metal, compounded by insufficient domestic demand [1] - The crude steel production reduction policy remains unimplemented, and slow production cuts from steel mills, along with ample raw material supply, are expected to drag down steel prices [1] - The forecast for hot-rolled coil prices in the second quarter is also weak, with continued short positions on the 10 contract recommended [1] Group 4 - The supply-demand imbalance for imported iron ore is not prominent, with decreasing inventories at steel mills and ports [1] - However, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and ongoing external demand pressures, coupled with insufficient domestic demand, lead to poor expectations for steel demand [1] - In June, there may be increased shipping demands from FMG and BHP due to fiscal year-end, while Vale's shipments may shift seasonally, potentially leading to a looser supply-demand situation for imported iron ore [1] Group 5 - Cautious investors are advised to hold a 9-1 long-short combination on iron ore, while aggressive investors may consider shorting the I2601 contract [1] - Risks include potential over-implementation of domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies and breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1]

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and continued to grow despite external shocks and internal challenges, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] - Key production and demand indicators maintained stable and rapid growth, indicating a positive trend in economic performance [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for April increased by 6.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - High-tech industries such as information services, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and aerospace manufacturing showed significant investment growth, with increases of 40.6%, 28.9%, and 23.9% respectively [2] Private Sector Contribution - The private economy exhibited unique resilience and vitality, contributing significantly to the overall economic improvement in April [4] - Private enterprises' industrial added value grew by 6.7%, while private investment increased by 0.2% year-on-year [4] New Energy Vehicles - The production of new energy vehicles in April rose by 38.9% year-on-year, supported by government policies promoting vehicle trade-in programs [6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.7%, reflecting a growing acceptance among consumers [6][7] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market showed signs of recovery, with online retail sales reaching 47,419 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [8] - Sales of upgraded consumer goods, such as home appliances and furniture, experienced significant growth, indicating strong demand for consumer upgrades [8] Real Estate Market - In April, 22 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices increase month-on-month, with Shanghai and Dalian leading the growth at 0.5% [9] - Notably, the year-on-year price increase in Shanghai, Taiyuan, and Hangzhou suggests a potential rebound in certain real estate markets [10]