来源：中国经营报 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 9月30日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民 币7.1055元。 王青进一步表示，伴随美联储恢复降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数 还将承受一定下行压力，包括人民币在内的主要非美元货币对美元汇价易涨难跌；不过，前三季度美元 跌幅巨大，市场对包括美联储降息等在内的各类美元利空因素已有所消化，加之当前欧洲、日本经济走 势疲弱，后期美元会有较强的抗跌韧性。国内方面，四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响会逐步显现，而 以5000亿元新型政策性金融工具加快推进为标志，逆周期调节政策适时加力将确保经济运行基本稳定， 这方面有充足的政策空间，将为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑。由此，接下来人民币汇率仍将以稳为 主，保持与美元反向波动、波幅较小的运行格局，快速单边升值或大幅贬值的风险都不大。 "前三季度，人民币对美元中间价累计调升829个基点。在岸人民币汇率升值约1700个基点，升值约 2.4%；离岸人民币汇率升值约2.8%。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉《中国经营报》记者。 （编辑：朱紫云 审核： ...

从业资格：F0276812 2025年9月30日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 格林大华期货中国宏观经济三季报 1-8月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长0.5%，市场预期1.3%，1-7月份为1.6% 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-8月份，新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，1-7月同比下降4.0% 1—8月份，新建商品房销售面积57304万平方米，同比下降4.7%；1-7月同比下降4.0%，1-6月同比下降3.5%， 2024年全年同比下降12.9%。1—8月份，新建商品房销售额55015亿元，下降7.3%；1-7月下降6.5%，1-6月下降 5.5%，2024年全年同比下降17.1%。8月份全国新建商品房销售同比加速下滑。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 低基数推动9月份30大中城市的商品房成交同比正增长 1-8月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长0.5%，市场预期1.3%，1-7月份为1.6%。分类来看，1-8月份广义基建投资 （含电力）同比增长5.4% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts declined overall, and the yields of treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated upward. The yield curve showed a bearish steepening trend. The Chinese economy in August was generally below market expectations, and there is a significant downward pressure on the year - on - year economic growth rate in Q4 due to the high base of the previous year. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in Q4, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying treasury bond futures at low prices and conducting band operations [8][10][78] Summary by Directory 1. Disk Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Active Contract Trends**: In July and August, the strong continuous rise of the A - share market pushed up the risk appetite in the capital market, causing the prices of treasury bond futures contracts to decline overall. In September, the medium - and short - term varieties of the main treasury bond futures contracts fluctuated widely, while the main contract of the ultra - long - term 30 - year treasury bond futures continued to decline significantly [8] - **Treasury Bond Cash Bond Yield Trends**: The yield of treasury bond cash bonds hit a low in early January, over - anticipating the whole - year interest rate cut. After the central bank tightened the money market liquidity in January, the yield of treasury bonds rose in Q1. It slightly declined in late March and then quickly dropped in early April due to the US tariff increase news. Since July, the continuous rise of the stock index has pushed up the overall yield of treasury bonds. In Q3, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuated between 1.60% - 1.90% and ended at a relatively high level [10] - **Changes in the Treasury Bond Cash Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with June 30, the treasury bond cash bond yield curve on September 29 showed a bearish steepening trend, with the short - end rising less and the long - end rising more. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 15, 13, 24, and 38 basis points respectively [13] 2. Current Analysis - **Investment Data**: From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, lower than the market expectation of 1.3%. The growth rates of various types of investment, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, all declined compared with the previous period, and real estate development investment continued to decline [18] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to August, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the decline accelerated in August. The year - on - year growth of the average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in September was due to the low base of the previous year, and the year - on - year data in Q4 will face challenges [20][23] - **Consumption Data**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.4%, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. The growth rate of the national service production index was 5.6%, and the growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to August was 4.6%, with the growth rate dropping by 0.2 percentage points compared with January to July [25][27] - **Industrial Data**: In August, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. The year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports in August were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively, with the trade surplus increasing [30][32] - **Employment Data**: In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the unemployment rates of different groups showed different trends [35] - **Financial Data**: In August, the increase in the scale of social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB loans was 5.9 trillion yuan. At the end of August, the year - on - year growth rates of M2 and M1 were 8.8% and 6% respectively [37][41] - **Price Data**: In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. In September, the agricultural product wholesale price continued to rise, the South China Industrial Products Index fluctuated narrowly, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated slightly [44][50][55] - **Overseas Data**: In September, the US treasury bond interest rate rebounded slightly after reaching a low point. The core CPI in the US in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in October and December [57][60][64] - **Other Data**: In Q3, the yield of AAA 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly, the net financing of government bonds continued at a fast pace, and the term spreads of treasury bonds widened [65][68][72] 3. Strategy Recommendations - The Chinese economy in August was generally below market expectations. There is a significant downward pressure on the year - on - year economic growth rate in Q4 due to the high base of the previous year. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in Q4. If the intensity of counter - cyclical policies in Q4 is weaker than market expectations, the yield of treasury bonds is likely to decline, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying treasury bond futures at low prices and conducting band operations [78]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for the sixth consecutive month, showing production expansion and slightly weak demand. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately above the boom-bust line, but the new order index declined from the previous month. It is expected that counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including 50 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments, will be implemented in the fourth quarter [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **PMI**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, up from 49.4% in the previous month. Large enterprises continued to expand in the prosperity range, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline of small enterprises narrowed [2][6]. - **Production Index**: The production index in September was 51.9%, up from 50.8% in the previous month, with accelerated production expansion for five consecutive months [2][6]. - **New Order Index**: The new order index in September was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating improved market demand, but still below the boom-bust line [2][6]. - **New Export and Import Order Indexes**: The new export order index in September was 47.8%, up from 47.2% in the previous month; the import index was 48.1%, up from 48.0% in the previous month. It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow rapidly in September [2][7]. - **Price Indexes**: The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in September were 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined from August. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of PPI in September will narrow to about 2.3% [3][7]. - **Inventory Indexes**: The raw material inventory index in September was 48.5%, up from 48.0% in the previous month; the finished product inventory index was 48.2%, up from 46.8% in the previous month. The rebound of the finished product inventory index was related to production expansion, and its sustainability depends on future new orders [4][8]. - **Employment and Expectation Indexes**: The employment index in September was 48.5%, up from 47.9% in the previous month, and the production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, up from 53.7% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation and future expectations [9]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month [4][9]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry business activity index in September was 49.3%, up from 49.1% in the previous month, with a slight recovery but still weak. The new order index was 42.2%, up from 40.6% in the previous month; the employment index was 39.7%, down from 43.6% in the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The real estate market was still at the bottom, and real estate development investment was expected to contract significantly in September, dragging down the construction industry [4][9]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry business activity index in September was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The new order index was 46.7%, down from 47.7% in the previous month; the employment index remained unchanged at 45.9%; the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, down from 57.0% in the previous month. Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as catering, real estate, and cultural and sports entertainment were below the critical point [4][10].

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘全线小幅高开，多数主力合约早盘震荡走低，午后横向 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 波动，30 | 年期品种则回调幅度大，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2512 | 下跌 | 0.47%，10 | 年期 | T2512 | 下跌 | 0.01%，5 | 年期 | TF2512 | 下跌 | 0.04%，2 | 年期 | TS2512 | 下跌 | | 0.02%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 低基数助力8月工业利润转正 债市仍偏震荡 2025年9月27日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约整体走势为探底回升，周一小幅上涨，周二、周三连续下行，周四继续下行、触底后强力 反弹、收复当日失地，周五延续反弹，全周30年国债收跌0.60%，10年国债跌0.07%，5年国债跌0.09%，2年国债 跌0.02%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 9月26日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与9月19日相比表现为整体小幅上行。2年期国债到期收益率从9月 19日的1.49%上行2个BP至9月26日的1.51% ；5年期国债到期收益率持平于1.62%；10年期国债到期收益率 持平于1.88% ；30年期国债到期收益率从9月19日的2.20%上行2个BP至9月26日的2.22% 。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-8月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1-7月份同比下降1.7 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will announce the new Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on September 22, with the current 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged for three months [1] - A press conference on the achievements of the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan will be held on the same day, featuring key financial leaders [3] - The PBOC plans to issue 600 billion yuan of central bank bills with a 6-month maturity to enhance the RMB yield curve in Hong Kong [4] Group 2 - Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, there is speculation that global central banks, including the PBOC, may follow suit, potentially leading to a second wave of market rally in A-shares [5] - The PBOC has adjusted its 14-day reverse repo operations to a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding, which is seen as a move to enhance liquidity management [6] - The PBOC's liquidity management tools are being optimized to ensure stability in the financial system, especially ahead of major holidays [6] Group 3 - The external environment, including the Fed's rate cut and trade policies, may exert downward pressure on the US dollar, providing upward momentum for the RMB [7] - The PBOC is expected to flexibly manage liquidity through various instruments to stabilize the economy and support the RMB exchange rate [7] - A report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the priority for monetary policy in the fourth quarter will focus on economic growth and employment, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is influenced by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong inflows of foreign capital into the domestic stock market [1][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - In August, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by 0.83% and 1.21% against the US dollar, respectively [1]. - As of September 17, the onshore RMB reached a high of 7.1080 and the offshore RMB peaked at 7.1003 [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision is contributing to a decline in the US dollar index, which is providing upward momentum for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [3]. - The strong performance of the domestic stock market is attracting foreign investment, increasing demand for currency exchange and improving market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts and the impact of US government tariffs on the economy becomes more pronounced, the US dollar index may face further downward pressure, making it easier for non-USD currencies to appreciate [3]. - The domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing economic performance will provide essential support for the RMB exchange rate, which is expected to maintain a stable trajectory with limited risk of rapid appreciation or depreciation [3].

Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from July[1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from January to July[1] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] GDP and Economic Drivers - The monthly GDP year-on-year growth rate for August is approximately 3.8%, a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from July, significantly below the annual growth target[2][3] - The construction sector contributed a drag of about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while industrial and service sectors each contributed a drag of 0.1 percentage points[2][3] - The decline in economic growth is characterized by a simultaneous slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports, indicating a broad-based cooling of demand[3] Policy Outlook - The current economic situation presents a critical policy window, necessitating more aggressive macroeconomic responses to prevent further economic decline[4][15] - Key measures include accelerating the expenditure of accumulated fiscal deposits, increasing the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds, and enhancing support for infrastructure projects through policy financial tools[4][15] Risks and Challenges - The rising unemployment rate may suppress consumer income expectations and confidence, potentially undermining the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies[3][15] - There is a risk of policy measures being ineffective if consumers choose to save rather than spend any subsidies received, leading to a "policy hollowing out" effect[3][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the necessity of regulating industrial policies and controlling local governments' enthusiasm for industrial investment while emphasizing the need for further efforts to stimulate consumption [3][22]. Group 1: PPI Trends - Since October 2022, China's PPI has entered a continuous negative growth phase, experiencing 34 months of decline, which has pressured industrial profits and suppressed consumer spending [3][4]. - The current PPI negative growth is compared to a previous cycle from March 2012 to August 2016, which lasted 54 months, highlighting similarities in duration and abrupt declines [4][5]. - The current PPI decline is driven by two main factors: overcapacity in industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries due to rapid demand growth, and significant adjustments in the real estate market since the second half of 2021 [5][6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Both rounds of PPI decline are characterized by rapid capacity expansion exceeding demand growth, leading to oversupply, but the causes of demand insufficiency differ [6][11]. - The current round of PPI decline has seen a more significant impact from weak consumer demand, particularly in the context of the real estate market's deep adjustments, which have led to substantial wealth evaporation for residents [6][12]. Group 3: Industry Contributions to PPI Decline - The mining and upstream raw materials sectors contributed significantly to PPI declines in both periods, but their contribution decreased from 85.2% to 61.7% in the current cycle [11]. - The midstream manufacturing sector's contribution to PPI decline increased to 9.0% due to the overcapacity in the new energy sector, while the downstream manufacturing sector's contribution rose to 26.0%, particularly from essential consumer goods [11][12]. Group 4: Consumer Demand Analysis - The current cycle's core CPI has averaged around 0.3%, significantly lower than the previous cycle's average of 2.1%, indicating a substantial drop in consumer demand [13][14]. - Factors contributing to weak consumer demand include declining disposable income growth, increased savings tendencies, and unstable income expectations, leading to reduced consumption even with unchanged income levels [17][19]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To reverse the PPI negative growth, stronger counter-cyclical adjustment policies are needed, including lowering policy interest rates and expanding public investment [21][23]. - Enhancing consumer confidence through effective policies can lead to increased consumption, which is crucial for reversing the downward trend in downstream manufacturing prices and ultimately improving PPI [23][24].